BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. My limited impression was that Bruce Clifton and sanity were not always close associates. And please no one tell the story of Bruce, Sir Lewie and the aneurysm as we have all heard it since our student days

    I have had recent close dealings with RPA anaesthetics and its HOD – certainly agree that it’s very solid

  2. Oakeshott Country @ #1901 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    My limited impression was that Bruce Clifton and sanity were not always close associates. And please no one tell the story of Bruce, Sir Lewie and the aneurysm as we have all heard it since our student days

    I have had a recent close association with RPA anaesthetics and its HOD – cerainly agree that it’s very solid

    “…but I thought you needed the practice.”

    I was one of the (many) students that BC depanted while scrubbed…

  3. Hello Gladys. Babble your way out of this one. Not looking good Gladys. New ferries for the at/over capacity Parramatta River run shelved, just short of the time they were meant to start running. No suitable tenders!!

    Trains, boats, automobiles. And planes, with the mind-blowingly complex rerouting of traffic around the airport for AirPort Connect from Westconnex.

    https://outline.com/T2PPZf

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/purchase-of-new-ferries-for-sydney-s-busy-parramatta-river-shelved-20181221-p50nr3.html

    Good bye Gladys.

  4. guytaur @ #1889 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:21 pm

    This LNP presser now a train wreck. Defence of Prakash citizenship issue seems to be Fiji is lying

    How hard is it to confirm his citizenship with Fiji officials before revoking his Australian citizenship !

    Dutton seems incapable of doing even the most basic due diligence.

    The incompetence of this govt is breathtaking.

  5. Itza
    Surely this must be the end for the Libs in NSW. Libs dont believe in public transport and never will.Same at federal level. As far as they are concerned only poor people travel by bus,train and ferry.

  6. guytaur @ #1896 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:30 pm

    @rolandsmartin tweets

    So @Politico, who has established that @ewarren @SenWarren is cold & aloof? I’ve interviewed her several times. That’s simply not the case. I rarely curse on Twitter, but this is the kind of bullshit narrative that women get saddled with, then all of a sudden it sticks. DO BETTER https://twitter.com/politico/status/1080171818235953152

    @politico

    How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground? https://politi.co/2CHQpZc

    I like Warrens passion and energy in her fight for equality, but it’s going to be difficult for her as I think people would rather a more understated President after Trump – someone like Klobucher.

  7. I think the turning point for the last NSW Labor government was the day the train system collapsed when 1 million people went into the city to see the Queen Mary and QEII dock. This was before the corruption become obvious but it showed a government that had not anticipated and planned even simple government functions. The New Years Eve fiasco was probably worse as the press of crowds was highly predicatble

  8. “I like Warrens passion and energy in her fight for equality, but it’s going to be difficult for her…”

    Yes it is because there is a pretty big hurdle, which I saw someone on twitter describe as the only woman candidate that stands a chance, her name being “Of course I’d vote for a women – just not that one”.

    Every female candidate is going to hit that hurdle. I hope Sanders comes out soon with a ‘I will NOT run’ and places his support firmly behind a progressive woman candidate.

    A real test for the US voters who failed the easiest test (other than Brexit) that a quasi democracy has ever seen just two and a bit years ago.

  9. “Independents should have a record representation in NSW parliament after the state election if voters have any sense.”

    Or they could elect a functioning government, you know to get things done in a sensible way.

  10. WeWantPaul @ #1916 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:07 pm

    “Independents should have a record representation in NSW parliament after the state election if voters have any sense.”

    Or they could elect a functioning government, you know to get things done in a sensible way.

    The history of dysfunction and corruption over the last decade would be at the forefront of voters’ minds you’d think.

  11. Oakeshott Country @ #1912 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:03 pm

    I think the turning point for the last NSW Labor government was the day the train system collapsed when 1 million people went into the city to see the Queen Mary and QEII dock. This was before the corruption become obvious but it showed a government that had not anticipated and planned even simple government functions

    I just checked – that was Feb 20, 2007.

    (There was a Britten War Requiem on at the SOH.)

  12. “The history of dysfunction and corruption over the last decade would be at the forefront of voters’ minds you’d think.”

    Yeah there is something wrong with NSW, and both party machines in NSW seem fundamentally broken. But if ‘bunch of independents’ is the answer, when we know 9/10 independents are at least as bad as that idiot Hinch, you all are a lot worse off than I thought.

  13. Eventually, just as the brightening light arrived behind the blinds at the window, slumber returned and stayed without disturbance for several hours. Waking well past 8 he stirred and lifted himself from the bed and went into the bathroom where he turned on the lights and the fan and the hot tap; and then went in to the spare room and chose a white linen shirt for ironing, turned on the wall switch for the iron and placed the crumpled shirt on the board before going out to the small clothes-drying frame on the balcony and unclipping clean boxers and socks; and then remembered the shower and returned, added some cold and stepped naked into the recess and reached for the babies tears, which he uses to wash his eyes.

    Standing under the shower, not too hot and not too cold, the streams splashing over his skin at just over blood temperature, he became aware of the sensation that everything seemed very magnified. His head felt enlarged, wider in every dimension, and his shoulders and torso seemed to have increased while he slept, and the tiles of the bathroom floor seemed further down than usual, as if he’d grown 3 feet while he slept. And the bowl of the toilet seemed further away than usual, as if it had diminished. The taps on the hand basin were smaller than he remembered and the sound of the water draining away in the base of the shower floor seemed to be more distant. How strange, he said to himself, to feel this after such a long lie-in. It was not the first time he’d felt inflated in this way. His feet still touched the floor, so he was not a balloon, he could sure of that.

    Most peculiar, he thought, again. How can I be sure I am the same as yesterday? How can we know? He dried himself up to a point and shaved, using the blue razor and the Nivea facial foam and then washed away the excess and examined himself for cuts and missed hair, and finding none, went back to the spare room and ironed the linen shirt to within an inch of perfection. The shirt at least seemed to fit properly, though strangely he felt his jeans were too big.

    Contrary to his expectations, there was no wind blowing from the beauteous red lands to the east, and there was no eucalyptus in the air; but rather the sky hung gray and low and cool with the incoming clouds of the coastal trough, and the wind blew lightly and cool from the south.

  14. “And then they can go home and sup on unicorn, leprechaun, and other pipe-dreams.”

    I’m available to rule NSW, if you can appoint me, give me an army and unconstrained authority and power, wit no constraints, you’ll be running like clockwork with the first 10 years of my glorious reign (and look with the internet I can do it without leaving WA).

    Or you losers could try and do democracy, you know, better.

  15. WeWantPaul @ #1920 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:17 pm

    “The history of dysfunction and corruption over the last decade would be at the forefront of voters’ minds you’d think.”

    Yeah there is something wrong with NSW, and both party machines in NSW seem fundamentally broken. But if ‘bunch of independents’ is the answer, when we know 9/10 independents are at least as bad as that idiot Hinch, you all are a lot worse off than I thought.

    Makes one think how many good independent candidates have been missed by partisan or apathetic voters in the past.

    Voters should do themselves a favour by investing more time in scrutinizing their candidates.

  16. “Eventually, just as the brightening light arrived behind the blinds at the window, slumber returned and stayed without disturbance for several hours. Waking well past 8 he stirred and lifted himself from the bed and went into the bathroom where he turned on the lights and the fan and the hot tap; and then went in to the spare room and chose a white linen shirt for ironing, turned on the wall switch for the iron and placed the crumpled shirt on the board before going out to the small clothes-drying frame on the balcony and unclipping clean boxers and socks; and then remembered the shower and returned, added some cold and stepped naked into the recess and reached for the babies tears, which he uses to wash his eyes.
    Standing under the shower, not too hot and not too cold, the streams splashing over his skin at just over blood temperature, he became of the sensation that everything seemed very magnified. His head felt enlarged, wider in every dimension, and his shoulders and torso seemed to have increased while he slept, and the tiles of the bathroom floor seemed further down than usual, as if he’d grown 3 feet while he slept. And the bowl of the toilet seemed further away than usual, as if it had diminished. The taps on the hand basin were smaller than he remembered and the sound of the water draining away in the base of the shower floor seemed to be more distant. His strange, he said to himself, to feel this after such a long lie-in. It was not the first time he’d felt inflated in this way. His feet still touched the floor, so he was not a balloon, he could sure of that.
    Most peculiar, he thought, again. How can I be sure I am the same as yesterday? How can we know? He dried himself up to a point and shaved, using the blue razor and the Nivea facial foam and then washed away the excess and examined himself for cuts and missed hair, and finding none, went back to the spare room and ironed the linen shirt to within an inch of perfection. The shirt at least seemed to fit properly, though strangely he felt his jeans were too big.
    Contrary to his expectations, there was no wind blowing from the beauteous red lands to the east, and there was no eucalyptus in the air; but rather the sky hung gray and low and cool with the incoming clouds of the coastal trough, and the wind blew lightly and cool from the south.”

    Very nice indeed.

  17. Yes Cud but you are not in the club
    It is an apocryphalic story of a very camp anaesthetist getting the upper on a very pompous surgeon in the early 70s

  18. Last night I had the misfortune to watch “The Barefoot Contessa” a classic movie of the 50s which won some academy awards.

    It revolves about the Contessa, who is a working class Spanish dancer (really, not rhyming slang for cancer) having a troubled private live before being rescued and having a whirlwind romance with the Count.
    On the wedding night he turns up and says wtte “Oh by the way I got my balls shot off during the war”. She then gets knocked up by the Gypsy gardener so the count shoots both of them.

    You couldn’t make this crap up if you tried

  19. A rare win for US Wage Slaves. Showing up the degree of braking the Barbarians have applied to our minimum wage. US $15 = Aus $21.40 ,our min. wage currently $18.93.

    A $15 Minimum Wage Seemed Impossible. Now It’s Reality for a Million New Yorkers.

    Six years after a group of fast-food workers in New York City — earning as little as $7.25 an hour — made the seemingly preposterous demand for a $15 minimum wage, more than one million of their peers will get just that starting this week.

    https://outline.com/4WtKku

  20. Back in Don Chipps day in the Senate it was “keep the bastards honest”. The days of Independents and one or no issue parties doing that are long gone.
    Watching PHON, Lambie, and two from SA for starters, their performance in the Senate has been a disaster.
    Aussies are smart enough to see them as disruptive rabble and will have them queuing at Centrelink as soon as the electoral cycle permits.

  21. Barney, he’s not an independent. He’s a Christian Democrat and quite a few different people have been elected under that party name. I’m thinking Mack, Moore, Windsor, Andren & Greenwich.

  22. In one of the comments of the article by David Brooks that was linked to in an earlier post there was this :
    Stop with the false equivalencies. Democrats are not perfect by any means, but the Republicans broke this system. Trying to assign equal blame to each side is to create a narrative that may seem fair but is fundamentally dishonest and untrue.

    Much the same could be said of Australian politics – we just have held off the rot getting an irreversible hold here.

  23. booleanbach @ #1937 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:37 am

    In one of the comments of the article by David Brooks that was linked to in an earlier post there was this :
    Stop with the false equivalencies. Democrats are not perfect by any means, but the Republicans broke this system. Trying to assign equal blame to each side is to create a narrative that may seem fair but is fundamentally dishonest and untrue.

    Much the same could be said of Australian politics – we just have held off the rot getting an irreversible hold here.

    Bbbbbbut Liberal- Labor …

  24. Incidentally when did “batsmen” cease being batsmen and start being “batters”?

    Does this have something to do with the prominence of women’s cricket? (I must admit “batsperson” sounds somewhat unwieldy)

  25. WWP – the one woman who could, but definitely will not, run and be very competitive with Trump is Michelle Obama.
    Pity really. Just about all the other potential candidates i have seen mentioned have issues that can be exploited to hold them down. Same goes for just about any of the men I have seen listed too.
    And will the Russians take the field again? almost certainly they will give it a try; and the North Koreans, and the Chinese.
    It should be a most fascinating election trying to sift the overseas influence chaff from the local grain.

  26. lefty e

    Interesting perspective in that Spectator article. But the author obviously believes that the Abbott reactionaries will see the folly of their ways after a defeat. Quite the opposite – a loss will be blamed on Morrison as being ‘Just like Turnbull’ to quote some extremely anti-Labor relatives of ours.

    Thus the solution, as ever, will be to turn back to that golden era when Abbott won a resounding victory in 2013. The Abbott forces will triumph post election – and this will take years for the Liberal Party to get over.

    Which will benefit Australia.

  27. Surely it’s not a big issue that ‘batters’ is now the proper term used …?

    It would be to me if it indicated Americanization (i.e. baseball origins). We already call “truckies” “truckers”, and “bikies” “bikers”.

    What next? “Garbos” as “garbers”? “Wharfies” as “wharfers”?

    But I think the upsurge in professional womens’ cricket is the reason for “batters”. Perfectly OK with that.

  28. “Incidentally when did “batsmen” cease being batsmen and start being “batters”?”

    With the useless yahoos on 7, given the class (or complete lack thereof) of Cricket Australia and Channel 7 execs and management, it is much more likely to be an Americanisation than a deliberate consideration of, or politeness to women.

  29. booleanbach

    It must be strange for Michelle Obama on her book tour. She must be the only person ever who knows they would be almost a certainty to become President if they chose to.

    Clearly she does not want the job, at least not now. Maybe eight years in the White House made her only too aware of the toll it takes on you.

    But wouldn’t that be some announcement if she did declare? Trump’s twitter feed would go into meltdown, all to no avail I would imagine.

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