BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. Apropos of nothing in particular, I had a Boostrix injection this morning, to boost immunity to whooping cough, diphtheria and tetanus. My niece, who will be giving birth later this month, requested that family members have it done. It’s recommended for adults who are likely to have contact with young children.

  2. TPOF

    Oh, I thought you meant when you ring up and an automated voice says ‘tell me in a few words why you are calling’ and they then repeat back something quite bizarre.

    Yes, that’s what I meant. I usually get silence, and then they ask again …and again. 🙂 Second phase is when I find the real person’s accent hard to understand, but I persevere.

    Ended with my thanking the lady for being so helpful and I distinctly heard her smile!!

  3. Steve777

    As awful as Trump is he has not, as yet, left a mountain of death and destruction like the last two did,Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan.

  4. AR

    Then I suspect the tester will be exposed to significant civil liability and possibly criminal unless the various Poisons Acts are modified

  5. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 11:17 am
    Ven @ #1831 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:50 am

    Barney
    Rishab Pant was given opportunity of his life and he is making good use of it by enjoying it. I don’t mean baby-sitting Paine kids.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/best-babysitter-rishabh-pant-comes-good-on-looking-after-tim-paine-s-kids-20190101-p50p53.html

    I’m not sure why your directing to me, but it does raise one question;

    Does his visa allow him to do this sort of work?
    _____________________________________________________________
    Don’t worry now that 7 have the cricket one of the McLachlan’s can ring Dutton and get Pant and Au Pair visa.

  6. poroti says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 11:29 am
    Steve777

    As awful as Trump is he has not, as yet, left a mountain of death and destruction like the last two did,Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan.

    _______________________________

    Yemen doesn’t count then. Because it’s done by proxy….

  7. Lizzie@11:13am
    “Indian cancelled plans to build avour 14 gigawatts of coal fired power stations” and shifting to solar powered power stations. Irrespective of what it does to climate change, economically it is the sensible thing to do in the long run. One less market for Ausdie coal I guess.
    People like Andrew Bolt, other Murdoch writers and LNP politicians were bleating 2 things.
    1. Even if we reduce carbon emissions, countries like India will use coal for their energy needs of over billion people. So it does not matter what we do regarding emissions.
    2. By supplying coal we are helping India in their energy requirements and in the process helping India reduce its poverty .

    Now above 2 arguments have been shot to pieces. By not developing Solar power industry when we had a chance, we are not in a position to help India anyway.

  8. sprocket

    I read the US Constitution and Amendments last year. It’s fascinating how a theme seems to run through it of a paranoia a dictator might try to take over. So there are many things there to make the President actually a pretty powerless person.

    The last two years have shown that the founders were pretty smart to anticipate such a problem.

  9. Itza

    You’re profession is so careful with medications and you face significant censure if you get it wrong and yet this scheme places responsibility for advising drug use on people who apparently have little to no training. I am having difficulty imagining a pharmacist taking on this role

    BTW I keep getting an email asking if I would like to be an anaesthetic CMO at Northern Beaches (pay range 70 -110K pa) Do you think I should do it?

  10. OC

    The people that do the drug testing as in the ACT example are medical professionals. The ACT is doing it and has not been sued. Mainly because they warn they are only looking for dangerous substances and are not guaranteeing they will find them. They are just doing tests to inform what might be in the pill and thus reduce the risk. Not eliminate the risk

    These people are NOT saying the pills are safe no matter how much the right wing just say no to drug mob try and make out thats the case.

  11. lizzie @ #1829 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:45 am

    I have just had the unfortunate experience of speaking to Telstra by phone. Unfortunate because the auto voice response does not appear to speak English. It took me many repetitions until finally the bot gave up and offered me a voice. After which I resolved my problem.
    The same happens when I try to contact Centrelink. 😡

    What I do is repeat, monotone:

    operator…..operator…..operator…..operator…..operator…..

    and the bots give up. So far for me at least, and it is worth a try for others.

  12. oakeshott country @ #1865 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:48 am

    Itza

    You’re profession is so careful with medications and you face significant censure if you get it wrong and yet this scheme places responsibility for advising drug use on people who apparently have little to no training. I am having difficulty imagining a pharmacist taking on this role

    BTW I keep getting an email asking if I would like to be an anaesthetic CMO at Northern Beaches (pay range 70 -110K pa) Do you think I should do it?

    Read lizzie’s link.

    What it describes is very different to what you are saying.

  13. Steve777 says: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 11:22 am

    Re Phoenix Red @11:07. That New York Times article us pretty heavy stuff. Trump has done a lot of damage to American democracy and is set to do a lot more.

    It also contains what is for me a new word that I could apply elsewhere: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakistocracy.

    ************************************************

    I thought it was an excellent article/great new word too, Steve – but it shows the depths of despair that the US has become under Trump when seasoned political writers like David Brooks sees the US circling the drain ….

    *A kakistocracy (/ˌkækɪsˈtɒkrəsi, -ˈstɒk-/) is a system of government which is run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens.[

    “But we don’t live in a healthy society and we don’t have a healthy president.

    Trump doesn’t recognize, understand or respect institutional authority. He only understands personal power. He sees every conflict as a personal conflict in which he destroys or gets destroyed.

    We’ll have to face the fact that America has become another fragile state — a kakistocracy, where laws are passed and broken without consequence, where good people lay low and where wolves are left free to prey on the weak.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/opinion/trump-indictment-2019.html

  14. Sounds a familiar song. A Coalition favourite. I hope the electorate notices this,yet another,example of how much crap it is in reality. The Coalition favourite sung by Trump. Paul Krugman in the NYT
    .
    .
    2017 tax cut………… Its proponents made big promises about soaring investment and wages, and also assured everyone that it would pay for itself;
    https://outline.com/p6CjPP

  15. Said in the best of intentions, it sounds like they’re having trouble filling the role! It sounds like a hot bed of unrest.

    Over and above that, I wouldn’t want to be a non-anaesthetist in charge of a dept of same, or vice versa for that matter. If there’s one speciality that just about no one understands unless they’re one of them, it’s anaesthesia. And I include intensivists, and surgeons, especially surgeons. Pace pace.

    No comment on the pay grade.

  16. OC

    The comparison is with injecting rooms. No one says that using an injecting room makes you safe from an overdose. All it says is you get medical help if you do overdose.

    Its the same with pill testing. Its harm reduction not harm elimination.

  17. Most states have legislation which precludes liability in circumstances in which people undertake a inherently dangerous activity.

    Taking pills from drug dealers sounds inherently dangerous.

    Plus there is no contractual relations being formed or any trade or business in which the relevant practitioners are engaging so to attract any trade practices style legislation.

  18. Barney in Go Dau @ #1870 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 11:52 am

    oakeshott country @ #1865 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:48 am

    Itza

    You’re profession is so careful with medications and you face significant censure if you get it wrong and yet this scheme places responsibility for advising drug use on people who apparently have little to no training. I am having difficulty imagining a pharmacist taking on this role

    BTW I keep getting an email asking if I would like to be an anaesthetic CMO at Northern Beaches (pay range 70 -110K pa) Do you think I should do it?

    Read lizzie’s link.

    What it describes is very different to what you are saying.

    I agree. It makes it sound indefensible to not test, which is my position.

  19. lizzie @ #1867 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:51 am

    Barney

    I can imagine in a large gathering the assessments would be too slow.

    Yeah, but if they found something that looked very problematic they could publicise it more widely, describing the pill and warning of an increased danger.

    One of the festivals did this the other day, tweeting a description of the pill that had caused many of the recent issues.

    If you had a pill that matched the description you could choose to dump them or take the risk and still use them.

  20. Steve777 @ #1852 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 11:28 am

    Apropos of nothing in particular, I had a Boostrix injection this morning, to boost immunity to whooping cough, diphtheria and tetanus. My niece, who will be giving birth later this month, requested that family members have it done. It’s recommended for adults who are likely to have contact with young children.

    Bordetella pertussis (the bacterium that causes whooping cough) can be lethal in infants <6 months who can contract it from shedding asymptomatic adults during window between the time maternal immunity fades (< 3m) and the (vaccine-induced) autologous response is sufficient to protect the airway (3-9m). Adult pertussis can be unpleasant ("The cough of 100 days"), but is rarely lethal. Pertussis continues to circulate asymptomatically in most adult populations – the vaccine effect is partial and temporary (~3 years), but including it in the DTaP booster of adults has been shown to reduce infant mortality in Australian populations.

  21. Itza

    That is not the standard CMO pay scale but closer to RMO grades- looks like healthscope are pulling another swifty
    Last I heard they had appointed the head of anaesthetics from RPA for a 6 month secondment. The problem was that no one told him. I notice that his name is not on the ad

  22. rhwombat @ #1879 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:06 pm

    Steve777 @ #1852 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 11:28 am

    Apropos of nothing in particular, I had a Boostrix injection this morning, to boost immunity to whooping cough, diphtheria and tetanus. My niece, who will be giving birth later this month, requested that family members have it done. It’s recommended for adults who are likely to have contact with young children.

    Bordetella pertussis (the bacterium that causes whooping cough) can be lethal in infants <6 months who can contract it from shedding asymptomatic adults during window between the time maternal immunity fades (< 3m) and the (vaccine-induced) autologous response is sufficient to protect the airway (3-9m). Adult pertussis can be unpleasant ("The cough of 100 days"), but is rarely lethal. Pertussis continues to circulate asymptomatically in most adult populations – the vaccine effect is partial and temporary (~3 years), but including it in the DTaP booster of adults has been shown to reduce infant mortality in Australian populations.

    I got it last year. It knocked me about a fair bit. Keep up your immunity folks.

  23. Are the Liberals trying to tell us there are no women of merit so Labor has no merit because there are lot of women, or that there are women of merit and they won’t join a party filled with men with no merit.

  24. LNP out saying don’t trust Labor on border security Boats boo again.

    The day after the Howard Cabinet release. So Labor should just point out we know who not to trust. The LNP.

  25. Ven @ #1834 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:54 am

    Guytaur@10:49am
    Why are you insulting Bangladesh and other third world countries( BTW what is a third world country?). If you want admonish developers of Sydney, you do not have denigrate a third world country.

    A Third World country is one that was not aligned with either the Western Bloc (ie NATO) or Eastern Bloc (USSR et al). Contrary to what has become popular usage, it doesn’t have anything to do with economics or levels of industrialisation, so it makes absolutely no sense to use it because the cold war ended nearly 3 decades ago.

    *Thus, in The Commitments, the question”What can you do, we’re a third-world country?” is technically correct in relation to the Irish republic.

  26. oakeshott country @ #2150 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    Itza

    That is not the standard CMO pay scale but closer to RMO grades- looks like healthscope are pulling another swifty
    Last I heard they had appointed the head of anaesthetics from RPA for a 6 month secondment. The problem was that no one told him. I notice that his name is not on the ad

    OC. I’m surprised that they haven’t just added covering absent anaesthetists to the Medical Registrars’ responsibilities: that’s what they did for most non-surgical cover issues in most (NSW) hospitals post the Garling Enquiry. Being a RACP Basic Trainee has become pretty shit these days.

  27. ItzaDream @ #2154 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1882 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:10 pm

    oakeshott country @ #1880 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    Itza

    That is not the standard CMO pay scale – looks lie healthscope are pulling another swifty
    Last I heard they had appointed the head of anaesthetics from RPA for a 6 month secondment. The problem was that no one told him. I notice that his name is not on the ad

    WTF???

    Very good dept RPA, btw. Very solid.

    Bruce Clifton was legendary.

  28. sprocket_ says: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 11:35 am

    The worst person ever to be Potus

    ********************************************************

    George Carlin – “In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem.”

  29. To reassume our leadership in world politics, we must repair failings in our politics at home. That project begins, of course, with the highest office once again acting to inspire and unite us. It includes political parties promoting policies that strengthen us rather than promote tribalism by exploiting fear and resentment. Our leaders must defend our vital institutions despite their inevitable failings: a free press, the rule of law, strong churches, and responsible corporations and unions

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.b001e26d7a18

  30. Now THIS is funny :

    Philadelphia New Years Day parade ridicules ‘pee tape’-clutching Donald Trump in hilarious dance routine

    Philadelphia has traditionally celebrated New Year’s Day with the Mummers Parade, involving organized clubs that dress up in feathers and clown make-up, tote accordions and banjos, and perform bizarre and often outrageous sketches that frequently touch on current events. This year was no different as the Lobster Club parodied the presidency of Donald Trump.

    Suddenly, a shirtless Vladimir Putin appears, and dances the tango with Trump, as another dancer brandishes an enormous VHS tape with a golden letter “P” emblazoned on it. Trump takes Uncle Sam hostage and hands him over to Putin and the Russians.

    All seems lost, until Philadelphia Flyers mascot and Antifa icon Gritty appears, frees Uncle Sam, and hands Trump over to the FBI.

    WATCH the video at the end of the article ……. Victoria will love the FBI bit at the end

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/philadelphia-new-years-day-parade-ridicules-pee-tape-clutching-donald-trump-hilarious-dance-routine/

  31. rhwombat @ #1888 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:16 pm

    ItzaDream @ #2154 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1882 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:10 pm

    oakeshott country @ #1880 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    Itza

    That is not the standard CMO pay scale – looks lie healthscope are pulling another swifty
    Last I heard they had appointed the head of anaesthetics from RPA for a 6 month secondment. The problem was that no one told him. I notice that his name is not on the ad

    WTF???

    Very good dept RPA, btw. Very solid.

    Bruce Clifton was legendary.

    You bet. I had an invite to join (mid 70s now); I kinda knew Douglas Joseph, so there was the gay thing, although I had the medal, well both of them actually, seeing as how people are banging their own drums of late around here. But went back to Vincent’s (from RNSH) mainly for the ITU, which Bob Wright (ex RPA) had set up and was running with considerable discipline, and acclaim, leaving RNSH in the dust in those days. I stayed close to the RNSH Director, another legend, Ted Morgan. A convert to Catholicism in The Country Club, and one eyed, literally, and some would say figuratively, screaming HERODS at the gynaecologists doing a long list of abortions on Christmas Eve. Them was the days.

  32. @rolandsmartin tweets

    So @Politico, who has established that @ewarren @SenWarren is cold & aloof? I’ve interviewed her several times. That’s simply not the case. I rarely curse on Twitter, but this is the kind of bullshit narrative that women get saddled with, then all of a sudden it sticks. DO BETTER https://twitter.com/politico/status/1080171818235953152

    @politico

    How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground? https://politi.co/2CHQpZc

  33. Steve777

    Good on you for getting Boostrix. I remain very concerned for young Australians travelling to Asia who are not fully immunised because of their parents’ decisions, and who may not even be aware of that fact, nor the risk they are taking.

    Diphtheria, tetanus , whooping cough can still cause deaths or long term sequelae, as can measles, mumps and rubella.

  34. Alex Wodak
    ‏@AlexWodak (Drug Law Reform, Pres.)
    1h1 hour ago

    I’ll be on The Drum tonight ABC TV briefly in discussion re #pilltesting. Hope you’ll watch. Am I only person left in Australia who has never watched this program?

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