BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 45
1 … 36 37 38 … 45

  1. frednk

    Up around Gympie, the local council “solved” the problem of cars running off the highway and hitting trees by cutting the trees down. The stumps that remained were about 2 ft (60cm) high. !!

  2. Quotas for female parliamentarians work. They are the most successful way of getting women into parliament. Just compare those parties with quotas with those that dont and see how those that do are already at or close to 50%. I think what tends to happen is that it also improves the calibre of female candidates coming forward. Knowing that a female will be selected increases the competition amongst the women.

  6. IoM @ #1802 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:55 am

    Quotas for female parliamentarians work. They are the most successful way of getting women into parliament. Just compare those parties with quotas with those that dont and see how those that do are already at or close to 50%. I think what tends to happen is that it also improves the calibre of female candidates coming forward. Knowing that a female will be selected increases the competition amongst the women.

    You mean they can do more than pour tea and sew back missing buttons? 🙂

  8. Dan Gulberry @ #1805 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:58 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1798 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:51 am

    I think it’s a disgrace that all those pissant Pacific islands start the New Year ahead of us!
    👿 👿 👿

    Don’t worry about it. By the time 2020 rolls around they’ll have all disappeared under the ocean.

    All part of the Libs policy to Make Australia Great Again.

    I’m not sure!

    Mt Cook’s pretty high. 😆

  9. BB @9:19. ‘News bulletins on ABC News Radio this morning led with “A further 6 detention centres have been closed down due to government’s tough border policies” and “Government demonstrates that Labor’s female quotas are a bandaid fix”.’

    We get far too much of this crap from the ABC. It has to be a combination of cuts and Government bullying. Government press releases, which these days are as credible as Liberal party flyers handed out in election campaigns, seem to be being simply read verbatim on air.

    This is what we expect from the Telecrap, but not the ABC. The new item for the first should read something like:

    “Six immigration detention centres have been closed down. The Minister says that this is owing to the government’s tough border policies”.

    The next one is more problematical. Has a Government department done some sort of study on the impact of Labor’s quotas? Why is taxpayer’s money being spent thus way? Shouldn’t someone ask? In any case, I think it unlikely. So I don’t think “The Government” has demonstrated anything. I would say something like “The office of Mr X, Minister for Silly Walks, has issued a statement that claims to demonstrate that Labor’s female quotas [for Parliamentary candidates] are a bandaid fix” and then presenting the evidence that allowed Mr X to reach that conclusion.

  10. Victoria @ #1789 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:42 am

    Meanwhile housing prices have taken a fair hit over past 12 months which has been good.
    And I am all for changes to negative gearing as proposed by team Labor.
    I am not so sure if the majority are going to buy it. Especially with the type of scare campaigns the vested interests will conduct.
    This may be the difference of a good win for Labor or just getting over line at next election.

    Housing prices have flattened more than dropped substantially in Melbourne.

    A Royal commission induced credit squeeze is on as Banks are forced to do toughen lending criteria and be more intrusive with their due diligence. Any one contemplating a home loan needs to ensure they haven’t overdrawn savings accounts, missed payments or exceeded the nominated credit limits on cards and personal loans. or your loan will be declined or you will need to pay a higher interest rate.

    Comprehensive Credit Reporting now means the Banks have your personal financial conduct history going back years.

    Changes around credit card limits and how they are assessed for serviceability will come in to effect in mid year and this will make loans more difficult to obtain.

    The regulator has softened it’s stance on Interest Free loans and my expectation is there will be an increase in these types of loans.

    The days of easy finance are well over and people will need to make the appropriate adjustments to lifestyle and expectations.

  11. Bushfire Bill @ #2141 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:19 am

    News bulletins on ABC News Radio this morning led with “A further 6 detention centres have been closed down due to government’s tough border policies” and “Government demonstrates that Labor’s female quotas are a bandaid fix”.

    Quote. Unquote.

    Yes, it was THAT blatant. Pretty shameless actually. Quite obvious there’s a Big Push on, not only at the ABC, but nearly everywhere else.

    Got fixed in a later bulletin I heard. Obviously Labor had complained and someone other than the work experience kid at the ABC swung into action. I’ve observed this sequence between early morning News bulletins and the next “edition” a few times now.

    They should have a rule that coalition press releases are not to be treateds “news”.

  12. Steve777

    How about it like this ? 🙂 “Labor’s quotas for women are a bandaid fix claims the former Coalition Minister for Women Tony Abbott”

  13. As Bass and Braddon combined can show how culture is changing on issues this from Tasmania is worth noting

    The report criticised the state government’s lack of progress towards establishing a Tasmanian Human Rights Act.

    “After years of talk there is still no Human Rights Act proposed for Tasmania notwithstanding that the Tasmanian Liberal Party website identifies many of the basic human rights as central beliefs,” the report reads.

    “A majority of the Tasmanian Labor Party policies also find their basis in fundamental human rights and Labor has stated it will introduce and support a Charter of Human Rights.

    “The Tasmanian Greens also has a policy to legislate a Charter of Rights and Responsibilities and to counter the erosion of civil and human rights.”

    https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5832063/tasmanias-d-grade-report-card-on-human-rights-issues/?cs=7660

  14. @C@t

    from the Pascoe article

    I’ve written before that I stumbled on an interesting balance on the night of the 2016 election. If you accept that Australia entered the modern era with the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, from ’72 to 2016 we’ve had roughly 22 years each of Labor and Liberal prime ministers.

    One mob leans a little one way, the other mob leans a little the other way. When either side leans too much, the pragmatic centres brings it back again through the ballot box. According to all the polls, the next election will restore the balance. By 2022, it looks like we’ll have had 25 years of Labor and 25 years of Coalition governments since 1972.

    When Sydney got the Olympics, there was an Australian in London – maybe High Commissioner or the like, I can’t remember – who said he was constantly being asked by Brits and Europeans about his county, and realised he actually didn’t know that much – prob a Liberal 😉 – and set to find out. He wrote a book with a title like -The Second Hundred Years, 1900-2000 – and the take out line was essentially that we had a good democracy, and were a cautious and thoughtful people, and consistently returned toward the ‘centre’ if either elected party verged too far either side.

    Which all seems fair enough. Except that he, and Pascoe, fail to recognise or acknowledge that the ‘centre’ has been steadily moving to the right, after the great levelling of the War, if that is the right expression (a better one escapes me atm).

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/30/michael-pascoe-2018/

  15. Property prices in Australia are dropping for very good reason. Especially NSW. Opal Tower. Residential apartment block fault very bad news for investors as well as the tenants.

    Negative gearing not even in the race.

  21. For any that missed it this was tweeted last night.

    @jayjayfrench tweets

    Twisted Sister does not endorse Australian politician Clive Palmer, never heard of him and was never informed of Clive Palmer’s use of a re -written version of our song Were Not Gonna Take It.
    We receive no money from its use and we are investigating how we can stop it.

  22. Itza,
    I think that the central pivot point in Australia will move back to the left again soon, all things being equal come election time. As Pascoe’s article said, the Australian people tend to be self-correcting when things stray too far from the Fair Go. 🙂

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #1808 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:01 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #1805 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:58 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1798 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:51 am

    I think it’s a disgrace that all those pissant Pacific islands start the New Year ahead of us!
    👿 👿 👿

    Don’t worry about it. By the time 2020 rolls around they’ll have all disappeared under the ocean.

    All part of the Libs policy to Make Australia Great Again.

    I’m not sure!

    Mt Cook’s pretty high. 😆

    Not as high as it used to be – it lost ~ 30m in 1991. I’ve stood on the summit rock twice: first in 1980 (3764m), then in 2003, when bits of it were on the Grand Plateau glassier ~ 700m lower.

  26. Despite an expensive, comprehensive renovation (indeed rehabilitation), when you consider the price for which we sold our shack in Sydney it’s clear that real estate prices were simply too high.

  28. Alastair Nicholson
    ‏@alasnich
    4h4 hours ago

    One of the LNP’s most cynical policies was the lie that its asylum seeker policies were motivated by concern for them drowning at sea. The same crocodile tears were never shed for their disgusting treatment of those who survived and are still persecuted by them.

  29. I have just had the unfortunate experience of speaking to Telstra by phone. Unfortunate because the auto voice response does not appear to speak English. It took me many repetitions until finally the bot gave up and offered me a voice. After which I resolved my problem.
    The same happens when I try to contact Centrelink. 😡

  30. BB

    Yes. That was before we knew about Opal tower. As most of the push on prices came from international investors thats going away due to Opal Tower.

    That systemic flaw puts us in third world country company like Bangladesh. Building safety is one of the measures of a proper advanced country not a third world country riddled by corruption.

  32. lizzie
    One of the biggest of the many free kicks the media gave the Abbott opposition (& we know who was shadow minister for immigration don’t we) was to allow them to go from demonising the towelhead bastards out to invade us to manifesting the greatest concern for those poor, confused & deluded, spray sodden people cynically lured into these unseaworthy craft pretty much overnight.

  33. Republican and Democratic strategists wreck Trump’s ‘deplorable’ attack on retired general’s military service

    President Donald Trump has been cooped up in the White House as the government shutdown continues. With no end in sight, Trump has tweeted attacks towards Democrats and retired generals.

    On Tuesday, CNN’s Panel Browns’s panel bashed Trump as “deplorable” after he attacked four-star Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

    While interviewing with ABC’s Martha Raddatz, McChrystal said he would never join Trump’s team because he is immoral.

    “I think it is important for me to work with people who are basically honest,” he said.

    Trump responded to McChrystal criticism on Twitter.

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    “General” McChrystal got fired like a dog by Obama. Last assignment a total bust. Known for big, dumb mouth. Hillary lover!

    Republican strategist Dough Hey and Democratic strategist David Jacobson said that Trump, who claims to love the armed services, should not be attacking retired generals.

    “It’s deplorable, reckless and unbecoming of a president of the United States. These are decorated war heroes who risked their lives for our country. Donald Trump shouldn’t be talking about decorated military vets when he deferred from the draft,” Jacobson said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/republican-democratic-strategists-wreck-trumps-deplorable-attack-retired-generals-military-service/

  34. Guytaur@10:49am
    Why are you insulting Bangladesh and other third world countries( BTW what is a third world country?). If you want admonish developers of Sydney, you do not have denigrate a third world country.

  36. Ven

    Third world country is a common term. Understood by most.

    Just as the West is understood by most and could also be described as a term of denigration.
    The insulting bit was the riddled with corruption. However Bangladesh is the latest example with its factory fire that killed so many workers.

    That was a combination of building safety and workplace safety. Made possible by systemic weakness that lets in corruption.

    First Second Third World is not really denigration its the association that goes with it that is.

  38. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:45 am
    I have just had the unfortunate experience of speaking to Telstra by phone. Unfortunate because the auto voice response does not appear to speak English. It took me many repetitions until finally the bot gave up and offered me a voice. After which I resolved my problem.
    The same happens when I try to contact Centrelink.

    ____________________________________

    Lizzie, that is my number one terror in calling the IVRU numbers. Given the setup, it can only be devised to torture callers and, perhaps, to dissuade them from speaking to anyone about their problems. Sometimes I finish up yelling abuse at the automated voice just to make me feel better (I hasten to add I would never do that with a real person on the line!).

  39. American held by Russia as a spy is a Trump supporter

    Paul Whelan, the American arrested Friday in Russia and detained under suspicion of espionage, is actually a Trump supporter, discovered Twitter user Eliot Higgins.

    Some suspect that Russia seized Whelan to pressure the United States to release convicted Russian spy Maria Butina, who infiltrated the NRA and made contacts with several powerful Republicans.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/american-held-russia-spy-trump-supporter/

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA · 2h2 hours ago

    Tea Pain is worried about the same thing. The entire GOP would be behind swappin’ Maria Butina for Whelan to keep the #NRA dark money from comin’ to light. This is how Putin compromised so many of ’em.

  40. Drug testing is the current Buzzword

    What I would like to know:
    1. Who does the testing
    2. What do they test for
    3. How do they test and with what degree of accuracy
    4. What is their liability in case of error
    5. What is their responsibility if they identify a potentially harmful substance

  41. phoenixRED @ #1839 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:02 am

    Paul Whelan, the American arrested Friday in Russia and detained under suspicion of espionage, is actually a Trump supporter, discovered Twitter user Eliot Higgins.

    Certainly nothing says he can’t be a Trump supporter and a spy.

    Though I guess if he’s as bad at spying as he is at selecting political figures to support then Russia has nothing to worry about, so…fair point I guess.

  42. TPOF

    If I can make the effort to understand the accent of the person trying to help me, (who follows a set script until I refuse to play along) then ‘Telstra service’ should bloody well be able to understand me. Goodness knows what trouble others with less fluency in English might have.

  43. 2019: The Year of the Wolves – David Brooks

    ”When the indictments come down, Trump won’t play by the rules. He’ll delegitimize those rules. He’ll delegitimize our legal institutions. He’ll personalize indictments, slander every prosecutor. He’ll destroy the edifice of law in order to save himself.”

    “At that point congressional leaders will face the defining choice of their careers: Where does their ultimate loyalty lie, to the Constitution or to their party?”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/opinion/trump-indictment-2019.html

  44. When I have any problems with Telstra, I go to a Telstra shop to see real people. You can do that when you’re retired. I refuse to battle with them over the phone.

    Fortunately I have no need to deal with CentreLink. I used to contact them on behalf of my late father but that was in more reasonable times. It sounds like a nightmare now.

  45. India has cancelled plans to build nearly 14 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations – about the same as the total amount in the UK – with the price for solar electricity “free falling” to levels once considered impossible.

    Analyst Tim Buckley said the shift away from the dirtiest fossil fuel and towards solar in India would have “profound” implications on global energy markets.

    According to his article on the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis’s website, 13.7GW of planned coal power projects have been cancelled so far this month – in a stark indication of the pace of change.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/india-solar-power-electricity-cancels-coal-fired-power-stations-record-low-a7751916.html

  46. The month before the 2018 midterms, a thousand theaters screened “The Trump Prophecy,” a film that tells the story of Mark Taylor, a former firefighter who claims that God told him in 2011 that Donald Trump would be elected president.

    At a critical moment in the film, just after the actor representing Mr. Taylor collapses in the flashing light of an epiphany, he picks up a Bible and turns to the 45th chapter of the book of Isaiah, which describes the anointment of King Cyrus by God. In the next scene, we hear Mr. Trump being interviewed on “The 700 Club,” a popular Christian television show.

    As Lance Wallnau, an evangelical author and speaker who appears in the film, once said, “I believe the 45th president is meant to be an Isaiah 45 Cyrus,” who will “restore the crumbling walls that separate us from cultural collapse.”

    Cyrus, in case you’ve forgotten, was born in the sixth century B.C.E. and became the first emperor of Persia. Isaiah 45 celebrates Cyrus for freeing a population of Jews who were held captive in Babylon. Cyrus is the model for a nonbeliever appointed by God as a vessel for the purposes of the faithful

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/opinion/trump-evangelicals-cyrus-king.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Edit:

    This isn’t the religious right we thought we knew. The Christian nationalist movement today is authoritarian, paranoid and patriarchal at its core. They aren’t fighting a culture war. They’re making a direct attack on democracy itself.

    They want it all. And in Mr. Trump, they have found a man who does not merely serve their cause, but also satisfies their craving for a certain kind of political leadership.

  47. Ven @ #1831 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:50 am

    Barney
    Rishab Pant was given opportunity of his life and he is making good use of it by enjoying it. I don’t mean baby-sitting Paine kids. 🙂

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/best-babysitter-rishabh-pant-comes-good-on-looking-after-tim-paine-s-kids-20190101-p50p53.html

    I’m not sure why your directing to me, but it does raise one question;

    Does his visa allow him to do this sort of work? 🙂

  48. lizzie

    TPOF

    If I can make the effort to understand the accent of the person trying to help me, (who follows a set script until I refuse to play along) then ‘Telstra service’ should bloody well be able to understand me. Goodness knows what trouble others with less fluency in English might have.

    _________________________________

    Oh, I thought you meant when you ring up and an automated voice says ‘tell me in a few words why you are calling’ and they then repeat back something quite bizarre.

    If you are talking about a real person, you must have a real bit of grief.

  50. Oakeshott Country @ #1840 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:06 am

    1. Who does the testing
    2. What do they test for
    3. How do they test and with what degree of accuracy
    4. What is their liability in case of error
    5. What is their responsibility if they identify a potentially harmful substance

    My guess:

    1. Chemists; or unskilled people operating a machine that does all the chemistry for them automagically
    2. Purity (especially if the “pill” in “pill testing” is referring almost exclusively to MDMA)
    3. Varies based upon the substance being tested
    4. None
    5. Informing the person who submitted it for testing

Comments Page 37 of 45
1 … 36 37 38 … 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *