BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A very interesting article from Matt Wade about our gross misconceptions over major issues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-uncomfortable-truth-about-voters-perception-versus-reality-20181228-p50olu.html
    The SMH editorial is an exhortation to action from the ground up on climate policy because it’s not coming from this federal government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/climate-danger-take-heart-and-fight-on-20181228-p50okk.html
    Patrick Hatch tells us that a solar farm which will be the largest in NSW and be big enough power a city of almost a million people is a step closer to reality after getting the green light from planning authorities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nsw-largest-solar-farm-gets-government-s-green-light-20181228-p50om4.html
    Ben Oquist says that the next election and the next Senate will have to make some of the biggest decisions on the direction of taxation policy in a generation. If they get it right, perhaps their most important achievement will be showing to all Australians that our democracy is not yet completely broken.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/30/can-australia-learn-from-its-tax-mistakes-of-the-past
    According to Greg Sheridan Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Theresa May — the three great disrupters of 2018 will determine the shape of the world in 2019. Never have three less likely revolutionaries strode the global stage.
    https://www.outline.com/TbJ2Cg
    After dipping a toe in the world of public relations with a Twitter account, the Australian Signals Directorate is set to take a leap in the direction of transparency, with plans to publish a two-volume history of the agency.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/shadowy-agency-wants-to-tell-its-story-20181227-p50oed.html
    It gets worse for some Opal Tower residents.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/welcome-to-the-gypsy-life-new-year-s-pain-for-opal-tower-residents-20181229-p50oqq.html
    Fines for driving unregistered are up more than 64,000 per year since the removal of rego stickers. Motorists blame the government for not sending reminders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/drivers-demand-reminders-for-car-rego-as-nsw-rakes-in-240m-in-fines-20181228-p50ojy.html
    If history’s greatest novelists and playwrights were to come back from the dead so they could tell the improbable tale of Donald Trump, how would they do it?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/how-would-the-great-writers-tell-the-improbable-story-of-trump-20181229-p50oqs.html
    Victoria is set to record its lowest ever road toll, almost 20% less than 2017. SA has a similar story.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-set-to-record-lowest-ever-road-toll-almost-20-percent-less-than-2017-20181229-p50oqr.html
    Here’s Gideon Haigh’s take on day 4 of the test match.
    https://outline.com/P88WeP
    Geoff Lemon writes that the workload of Pat Cummins and the rest of the Australian bowlers is not being helped by batsmen who are not currently doing their jobs
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/dec/28/cummins-strikes-but-australias-bowlers-are-at-breaking-point
    Gift cards have burgeoned into a multi-billion-dollar industry in Australia, but companies are pushing short expiry dates and sneaky fees onto consumers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2018/12/26/what-to-know-about-gift-cards/
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/he-ruled-it-like-a-cult-inside-drug-crop-enforcer-s-brutal-regime-20181226-p50o9e.html

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.





    Peter Broelman and some anxious spectators.

    Paul Zanetti with Hawkie.

  4. Thanks William – and the WB & BK cat and mouse game continues!

    The Bludgertrack curves are interesting now that you have put in the coup discontinuity. It does feel like what has happened – initial shock and big drop in Coalition, followed by a small recovery when people thought “At least he’s not Dutton”. Then the slow realisation that Morrison is actually not up to the job of PM, and that all the internal fights in the Liberals and Nationals are still going on like before. So the majority of Australians have decided the only solution is a change of government.

    I see Dickson is an 8% chance to hold. Deakin is at 62% – I am convinced Sukkar is travelling a bit worse than this. We shall see in due time.

  5. Mining giant Adani expects an indigenous traditional owner opposed to their controversial Queensland coal mine to pay more than $600,000 in legal costs.

    Adani has filed a petition in the Federal Court seeking an order to bankrupt Wangan and Jagalingou man Adrian Burragubba after his numerous failed court actions to stop the $16.5 billion project in the Galilee Basin.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/adani-to-make-indigenous-traditional-owner-pay-legal-costs

  7. Good morning Bludgers 🙂

    Can we just attack Peter Dutton instead of each other today please?

    In fact, that’s MY New Years Resolution : Attack! Attack! Attack!
    The Coalition and their media arm.

    I’m just going to ignore the fleas that jump on the Labor bulldog.

  8. Adani has set aside a “conservation area” for the endangered black-throated finch at the same site earmarked for the massive Clive Palmer-backed Alpha North coalmine.

    The environmental group Lock the Gate said the land-use conflict meant the Adani plan to protect the black-throated finch – which is one of two crucial management plans for the Carmichael mine yet to be approved by the Queensland government – amounted to an “elaborate hoax”.

    But Adani’s response suggested the Indian company could seek to block elements of the neighbouring Alpha North coalmine, or prompt a court battle, to safeguard its own project.

    “We will not allow the conservation area for the black-throated finch to be compromised,” Adani said in a statement to Guardian Australia.

    Adani owns the relevant pastoral land – effectively the property at surface level. Palmer’s Waratah Coal has several exploration permits for the coal resource underneath, and has applied for a mining lease.

    The Waratah Coal plan for Alpha North includes a series of open-cut and underground mines, planned to produce 80m tonnes of coal a year from two separate areas. A 20,000ha section Adani plans to use for a conservation area roughly corresponds to Alpha North plans for four longwall underground mines.

    In applications, Waratah Coal has acknowledged that Alpha North could cause subsidence, and could affect black-throated finch habitat and watercourses.

    The bird is endangered and researchers have previously said the Adani Carmichael mine’s offset strategy would be “grossly inadequate” to protect it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/30/adani-conservation-area-for-endangered-finch-sits-on-proposed-clive-palmer-mine?CMP=share_btn_tw

  10. Sprocket,
    Someone with the requisite skills should cut out ‘Worse Than Rudd’ and the picture of the Uber Tuber, isolate it and reuse it for memes
    😀

  11. Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01
    11h11 hours ago

    Peter Cundall is a one-off. Impoverished childhood, British soldier, jailed as a spy by Tito in Yugoslavia, Australian soldier, communist candidate for parliament…and a lovely bloke with it. What a life.

  12. Honestly, does anyone else walk down the beach in summer with their families, holding hands and fully-clothed!?!

    We just chuck our gear down and head for the water!

  14. And in the last days of the crumbling Liberal Party empire, born-to-rort Joe Hockey has been throwing parties like there’s no tomorrow – heavy lift that Yarra Valley caviar, Joe!

    TAXPAYERS were slugged more than $70,000 for our ambassador Joe Hockey to wine and dine American state governors.

    Government documents, released under freedom of information laws, reveal the former treasurer, who took up his $360,000-a-year job in 2016, hosted the swanky event in February during the National Governors’ Association winter meeting.

    More than half of the bill — $42,445 — was spent on entertainers to keep the high-profile guests amused during the evening.

    Coogee country and western performer Amber Lawrence, and Nick Hardcastle — who appeared in Home And Away in the 1980s — were both paid to sing for the crowd of 250.

    Outback Wrangler star Matt Wright also brought an Aussie flavour to the evening bringing a range of reptiles to the event.

    The majority of governors from across the US, state premiers and Mr Turnbull attended the gala reception at the Australian Embassy.

    Australian taxpayers footed the $24,000 finger food bill, which included Kangaroo Island abalone with lime butter, King Island blue cheese and Yarra Valley caviar.

    Guest consumed more than $3000 of beer and wine, but taxpayers were spared the cost of gin cocktails, which were donated by Victorian gin maker Four Pillars.

    http://outline.com/MxBpBt

  16. Lizzie,
    Check out the photo of Dutton with his family that sprocket put up from the Sunday Mail back up the page.

    Sorry, should have provided context. 😉

  18. From BK’s very first article “A very interesting article from Matt Wade about our gross misconceptions over major issues.” Aussies are ranked 9th most accurate but our bro’s across the ditch are ranked 2nd after Hong Kong!

  23. lizzie

    Peter Cundall, nobody could ever say he did not have an interesting career ! No more ‘That’s your bloomin’ lot ” 🙁

  24. Terminator says:

    Aussies are ranked 9th most accurate but our bro’s across the ditch are ranked 2nd after Hong Kong!

    The kiwis have an unfair advantage, they live in a Rupert Free media environment !

  25. Boerwar @ #1998 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:07 am

    Attlee’s direction of military resources out of India, and financial resources into England

    The cad. The bounder.

    An English Prime Minister deciding that English money should be spent on the English people in England.

    The cad. The bounder.

    English money being spent on giving Englishmen a universal health care system that saved hundreds of thousands of English lives.

    The cad. The bounder.

    English money being spent on a universal education system that enhanced hundreds of thousands of English lives.

    The cad. The bounder.

    That money would’ve been much better spent on a quagmire which, ultimately, wouldn’t have saved or enhanced a single life in India.

    The cad. The bounder.

    Anyway, perhaps you’d like to explain where exactly the money would come from to carry out this ultimately doomed “Save India” quagmire, remembering that Richard di Natalie’s money printing press hadn’t been invented at that point in history?

  26. Thanks BK.

    Surely on the first story about perceptions the point should be;

    How do we change perceptions so that they more closely reflect reality?

  27. And this from Bill Shorten;s media unit

    “Perhaps the biggest question is what Morrison knew about today’s Dutton spray..

    Was he unaware it was happening? In which case Dutton is pitching for leadership ().

    Or these attacks on Turnbull and Julia Banks were done with his blessing.

    #auspol #muppetshow

  28. poroti @ #24 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:39 am

    Terminator says:

    Aussies are ranked 9th most accurate but our bro’s across the ditch are ranked 2nd after Hong Kong!

    The kiwis have an unfair advantage, they live in a Rupert Free media environment !

    The UK is ranked fourth, and they’re definitely a Rupert Free Zone. In fact they have a lot worse than Murdoch as well.

    What really surprised me was the low rankings of a lot of European countries, including Switzerland and Germany. These are largely also Rupert Free Zones.

    So, the media, while partly responsible, are not wholly to blame it seems.

  29. I hope Dutton didn’t stay out in the harsh Queensland sunshine too long.

    Baked potato weather fo’ sure.

    (On the new thread scoreboard …… HOWZATT !!!! …. BK caught and bowled William)

  31. Morning all. Thanks BK, and William too for the bludgertrack update. The clarification of the post Turnbull knifing trend is interesting, and should be scarry for any COALition MP who can read a graph. So nothing to fear! 🙂

    Labor does not want to make any ideological decisions over Adani and apply “normal process”. Fair enough. But between this environmental issue and concerns about traditional owners views being misrepresented, some action is required if normal process is to be respected.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-30/adani-provided-evidence-of-illegal-water-bores-lawyers-say/10673422

  32. sprocket_

    I’m sorry sprocket, but it was probable money well spent. If you are going to entertain 200 guests you do it properly; and it looks as if he did it with an Australian theme.

  33. Also Canada is below us so it doesn’t seem their truth in news laws have much of an impact.

    Unless they were really bad before! 🙂

  34. “Honestly, does anyone else walk down the beach in summer with their families, holding hands and fully-clothed!?!”

    Yes. I do. It’s how I start every day of my beach holidays. Walk down to beach with my wife, 3 grandlings, grab a coffee at the best coffee cart on North Stradbroke and walk for about 4-5km as the kids gambol into the shore break and collect shells along the way. Then I go for a swim and/or a surf before retiring out of the sun before I turn into a beetroot.

    Obrestgroupenfuhrer Kartoffelkop and family is appropriately attired and given his injury it’s not like he’ll be dashing into the surf any time soon.

    Now look what you’ve made me do C@t – defend Dutton! Sacrebleu!

  37. Roman QuadBike quick of the mark commenting on Dutton’s put down of Malcolm Turnbull’s lack of political judgment..

    “Without political judgment you:

    (a) can’t count mutineer’s votes

    (b) don’t realise internecine disputes turn off voters

    (c) play games with democracy and the parliament

    (d) are unable to read the electorate’s mood

    (e) head for a train wreck at next election

  41. poroti @ #35 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:55 am

    After the Great Gatwick Drone panic of 2018 we were told “There may have been no drones at Gatwick Airport at all, police say” the 😆 continues.
    .
    UK police admit some drone sightings during Gatwick closure crisis may have been of their own surveillance drones
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/gatwick-closure-some-sightings-may-have-been-of-police-drones-2018-12

    There’s a whole Dad’s Army episode in that! 😆

  42. This still not resolved.

    Peter Dutton should be found ineligible to sit in Parliament by reason of his family trust having received payments directly from the Government under the Government’s Inclusion Support Programme (ISP) which deals with caring for children with special needs.

    It is unfortunate so much of the media coverage on this controversy, and the legal advices, concerned the subsidies paid to – or at the direction of – parents to assist them meet the costs of childcare. It appears the learned barristers were briefed extensively on these parent subsidies.

    But only one of them, apparently, was briefed on the far more straightforward legal issue of whether government grants paid directly to childcare centres like the ones owned by the Dutton Trust resulted in Mr Dutton being disqualified by s44(v) of the Constitution.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/peter-dutton-still-has-a-case-to-answer-over-child-care-payments/

  44. With the Dutton spit at Turnbull (and can’t you just wait for Alex Turnbull’s response!), and also in light of Morrison’s paltry attempt to make us believe that he was unaware of the Broad broad caper, I am reminded of the tactic John Howard used to use in similar situations. He actually was not told, and could say so hand on heart before the Australian people as he had consigliores in his office that knew what to do and would take care of the messy situations without him having to get his hands dirty.

    I imagine the same modus operandi is used by Morrison.

  45. C@tmomma @ #43 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:03 am

    With the Dutton spit at Turnbull (and can’t you just wait for Alex Turnbull’s response!), and also in light of Morrison’s paltry attempt to make us believe that he was unaware of the Broad broad caper, I am reminded of the tactic John Howard used to use in similar situations. He actually was not told, and could say so hand on heart before the Australian people as he had consigliores in his office that knew what to do and would take care of the messy situations without him having to get his hands dirty.

    I imagine the same modus operandi is used by Morrison.

    And that is exactly why Ministers and MPs should be fully accountable for what happens in their offices.

  46. Thank goodness the ABC is publishing the counter to the African youth story. I suspect they may have received a lot of ‘feedback’.

    Leaders from Melbourne’s African migrant communities have accused far-right activists of “deliberately provoking” young men at St Kilda Beach by filming them as they played football and refusing police requests to stop recording.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-30/st-kilda-beach-incident-far-right-activists-african-community/10673424

  48. The “silent majority” remember being told over and over again about them. Well they now have control over the Liberal party; with the support of the shock jocks, who misnamed this vocal minority thus, giving full support.

    It looks as if the “real majority” is going to send them on their way. What surprises me is the “silent majority” blame game has started before they are shown the door.

  49. Thanks Lizzie

    I will not quote because i do not want to propogate. but i agree we MUST understand the dirt that will come.

    Now i have always been concerned about Tanya as PM because that will stick and while people are by and large tolerant I am not sure they are ready for an ex crim in the lodge. Hubby would NOT be able to accompany her to many countries as he would not get a visa. Do not get me wrong, he seems like a great guy, but perception is important (I think Tim was a drag on Julia and had he been a high flyer – say academic or Doctor pr lawyer her life would have been easier).

    Penny and lesbian is obvious but I do not think it will do any damage.

    The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.

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