BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  1. Thanks for the new bludgertrack William.

    Trend is trending … and the Coalition should be very worried.

    It would need to be a truly calamitous black swan event for these numbers to be reversed inside 5 months.

  2. Dan Gulberry says:
    Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 8:40 am

    Of course the English never took any money out of India and their other colonies did they. The ‘English money” you refer to was mostly sourced from the exploitation of colonies. The bloodshed during the English exit from India was mostly due to the partition of India and Pakistan. The partition became necessary after the English fomented division between Hindi and Muslim people as part of its regular divide and rule tactic.

  3. DaretoTread @ #48 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:11 am

    Thanks Lizzie

    I will not quote because i do not want to propogate. but i agree we MUST understand the dirt that will come.

    Now i have always been concerned about Tanya as PM because that will stick and while people are by and large tolerant I am not sure they are ready for an ex crim in the lodge. Hubby would NOT be able to accompany her to many countries as he would not get a visa. Do not get me wrong, he seems like a great guy, but perception is important (I think Tim was a drag on Julia and had he been a high flyer – say academic or Doctor pr lawyer her life would have been easier).

    Penny and lesbian is obvious but I do not think it will do any damage.

    The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    This may be your funniest comment ever.

    Thanks for the laughs!

  4. Barney in Go Dau

    Great idea re a Dads Army episode. Definite opportunities for multiple ‘don’t panic’ and ending with a ‘Stupid boy’ 🙂 .

  6. Yes DTT

    I am sure your really concerned about the nonsense the Liberal party dirt unit publishes.
    On a personal note you haven’t told us yet what your Moscow flat is like.
    It looks like BEXIT is not going to stick; bloody pom’s couldn’t organize a pissup in a brewery could they. Have you heard if Putin is upset?

  7. Former US ambassador to Iraq slams Trump for angering Iraqis with visit and warns of what could happen next

    Iraqi leadership was given almost no notice of the visit, for what the Trump team claimed were security reasons, and took the jaunt as an affront to their nation’s sovereignty. The Iraqi government may soon vote to expel American troops.

    Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Chris Hill said Trump’s visit underlined what’s wrong with his foreign policy, and how things could play out in the future now that the relationship is fractured.

    “We are contributing to the problems,” he said. “I mean, look at the visit to the troops. I mean, long overdue, better late than never, so it’s done. But it is someone else’s country. It’s the Iraqis’ country. Why not have a meeting with the prime minister? These things don’t seem to happen because, frankly, the president doesn’t seem to care. The consequences, you have a whole Iraqi parliament now sort of wondering, do they want any U.S. Troops there.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/former-us-ambassador-iraq-slams-trump-angering-iraqis-visit-warns-happen-next/

  8. I also note that Dutton is still trying to shore up the Conservative base with his self-serving piece in the Sunday Snail. He makes no mention, nor offers no explanation for the mass desertion of formerly staunch Liberal voters in the recent Victorian state election to vote for Labor for the first time ever.

    And it’s all about the politics with Dutton, never about the principled stand that might upset said base. So every policy is constructed with an eye on pleasing them, or the donors.

    Plus, does he even realise that it was obvious to all and sundry that Turnbull’s so-called ‘indecision’ was precisely because of Dutton, Cormann and the rest of the Conservative crew!?!

    He really must believe that the load of old tripe that he has served up today will be swallowed hook, line and sinker.

    The Australian people are smarter than that.

  12. The Libs used a RC to try and ‘nab’ Shorten on what was in that poster and it fell flat as a pancake.

    What further evidence (that has merit) could be found?

    Posters such as those are the same kinds of things as any clever (and I am not saying the poster is clever) person with a computer and appropriate applications can put together.

    Twitter is rife with armchair (bullshit) artists …

    No need for concern.

  14. phoenixRED

    But it is someone else’s country. It’s the Iraqis’ country

    That is hilarious, the guy did well to say it with a straight face. Apart from Israel when has the US given a flying fcuk about the sovereignty of a country in the region let alone Iraq ?

  16. frednk @ #56 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:20 am

    Yes DTT

    I am sure your really concerned about the nonsense the Liberal party dirt unit publishes.
    On a personal note you haven’t told us yet what your Moscow flat is like.
    It looks like BEXIT is not going to stick; bloody pom’s couldn’t organize a pissup in a brewery could they. Have you heard if Putin is upset?

    Fred

    Jeez you are a thick head.

    I am an active member of the ALP you bloody dope. i just get tired of thick heads who follow unthinking propaganda without any individual evaluation.

    Of bloody course any one with half a brain and a wish to see labor elected should be aware of the the LNP dirt unit and take steps to counter it. Sorry if it gives you palpitations but the truth is the truth and denying it will not make it go away.

    So three dirt unit nasties. Wong obvious and not dangerous to Labor. yawn. Tanya p – yes i think ALPers should be careful on this one. I ONLY think it matters if she were PM and it is a positive sign that little was made of it when she was shadow FM. Nevertheless it is not something I could ignore if I were voting in a leadership ballot.

    The Shorten one is also obvious and i think they have long been planning this sort of attack. Mind you the broad stuff and Barnaby has rather cut the wind from their sails on this type of attack

  17. From Twitter

    I would say that Dutton’s claims today are responding to Bishop’s Sydney to Hobart shenanigans. Dutton is delusional enough to think he’ll win his seat and so the battle for post-election control of the party has begun. #auspol

  19. Barney in Go Dau @ #53 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:17 am

    DaretoTread @ #48 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:11 am

    Thanks Lizzie

    I will not quote because i do not want to propogate. but i agree we MUST understand the dirt that will come.

    Now i have always been concerned about Tanya as PM because that will stick and while people are by and large tolerant I am not sure they are ready for an ex crim in the lodge. Hubby would NOT be able to accompany her to many countries as he would not get a visa. Do not get me wrong, he seems like a great guy, but perception is important (I think Tim was a drag on Julia and had he been a high flyer – say academic or Doctor pr lawyer her life would have been easier).

    Penny and lesbian is obvious but I do not think it will do any damage.

    The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    This may be your funniest comment ever.

    Thanks for the laughs!

    Idjit.

  21. DaretoTread,
    Could you please go to the shops today and buy a clue!?!

    Michael Coutts-Trotter, he has a name and it is polite to use it, is actually one of the top Public Servants in Australia and is so competent and expert at what he does that the incoming NSW Liberal National Coalition government kept him on as a Department Secretary, despite knowing who he was. One of the only, if THE only, Labor-aligned department secretaries to be kept on. And he’s still there.

    Obviously they, nor Tanya, are as bigoted in their thought processes as you are.

  22. DaretoTread:

    [‘The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.’]

    They’ve been digging for years (including a RC) but have come up with nothing. I doubt that any LOTO has been examined more closely than Shorten.

  23. poroti says: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 9:28 am

    phoenixRED

    But it is someone else’s country. It’s the Iraqis’ country

    That is hilarious, the guy did well to say it with a straight face. Apart from Israel when has the US given a flying fcuk about the sovereignty of a country in the region let alone Iraq ?

    ************************************************

    Come on Poroti – you surely have forgotten about that famous effort to help the poor Iraqis :

    “Operation Iraqi Liberation” …… or OIL for short ….. 🙂

    Bit more fun reading of Donald trip there

    Good riddance to a bad year of too much Trump

    Could there have been any better way to bring the disastrous year of 2018 to a close than Trump’s fake moon landing trip to “visit the troops” in Iraq? I mean, there he was in a dining facility behind 20-foot blast walls and concertina wire piled so thick it looked like Don King’s hair, and he was telling a hundred or so combat veterans they aren’t “suckers” anymore. Has any other president in American history used the word “suckers” other than Poppy Bush when he was handing them out to his grandchildren?

    ……. he goes into 2019 facing no less than 17 investigations and the inevitable indictments and plea deals that will bring him closer and closer to a day of reckoning he doesn’t need night vision goggles to see coming.

    Trump wasn’t visiting the troops in Iraq. He was doing the same thing he did every single day for the past year with his lies and his tweets and his tantrums. Donald Trump was visiting his base.

    MORE : https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/good-riddance-bad-year-much-trump/

  25. Barney in Go Dau @ #74 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    lizzie @ #65 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:30 am

    Bill Nye The Science Guy breaks down his issue with climate change deniers.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1079050662179033089

    He hits the nail on the head.

    It’s not that the climate is changing, it’s how fast it is changing.

    He also points out that we will not be able to feed the population as a result. This is a huge issue. Wars over water and food resources are likely in the lifetimes of people now living.

  27. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 8:24 am
    And in the last days of the crumbling Liberal Party empire, born-to-rort Joe Hockey has been throwing parties like there’s no tomorrow – heavy lift that Yarra Valley caviar, Joe!

    Yeah. Joe’s very good at spending taxpayer’s money and gorging himself while telling those who are down on their luck that the days of entitlement are over. I hope Shorten takes the knife to his sinecure very quickly after he becomes PM.

  29. frednk @ #68 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:36 am

    Yes DTT for sure.

    Oh give it a rest you paranoid grouper. I have been an active member of the ALP since you were in nappies. I will be out on the streets with a placard in my red T shirt soon (already have for the federal election). I will be an every fundraiser and will organise a polling booth. Will do my share of letterboxing and doorknocking. Not a fan of phone banking so will avoid.

    Sure i am a maverick although not nearly as much as you might think since I know many who share my views. The difference is I am eccentric (courageous) enough to say what i think and not hide behind the protective crowd of group think.

    I am a socialist and proud of it and as such I despise the grouper mentality that fans the flames of cold war hatred. I do not hate Russia or indeed the old USSR and see much in china to admire. Sure Stalin was terrible but his relevance to modern day Russia is non existent given he was Georgian. For the rest the USSR behaved like all other great powers including your adored USA. In the years since WWII only a bloody ignorant, partisan, USA bum licker would not grasp that in terms of imperial expansion, interference in other nations, bombing, death and destruction and crass exploitation, the USA has been far, far far more destructive that USSR. while the Baltic states and eastern Europe undoubtedly have some justifiable gripes compared with Cuba, South America, Korea, Vietnam iraq, Syria, Libya, Africa, they were being given a children,s birthday party replete with fairy bread.

    So if that makes me a Russiaphile then so be it but i will choose that any day over the conga line of USA suck holes which is probably Latham’s only positive contribution to policy debate. You seem to be part of the congo line for which I have utter contempt.

    The would rightly applied to you and many others is Neo Grouper and i see little difference between you and Tony Abbott on the world issues that matter. Santa Maria rides again.

  30. It’s nice to see a family on a beach at Christmas and New Year.
    It’s not nice to know that plenty of Australians can’t contemplate the cost of going anywhere near a beach let alone be burdened with difficult decisions like what house to live in at what beach and declining an invitation to attend Hockey’s knees up for in the USA.
    Dutton goes on about the safety of Australia from boats arriving illegally and presumably at some future time will explain the tens of thousands of visa overstays not worth mentioning because they are presumably not a threat like those on the boats. Bullshit is abundant within the Dutton article because Dutton didn’t get his way and thus the tantrum.
    Dutton has been hanging around parliament, sharing his hot chips with anyone offering sauce. The vinegar having already been liberally sprayed on the chips.

  31. phoenixRED

    ……. he goes into 2019 facing no less than 17 investigations

    Trump considers that a KPI and promises to better it for 2020 🙂

  33. Player One @ #73 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:48 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #74 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    lizzie @ #65 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:30 am

    Bill Nye The Science Guy breaks down his issue with climate change deniers.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1079050662179033089

    He hits the nail on the head.

    It’s not that the climate is changing, it’s how fast it is changing.

    He also points out that we will not be able to feed the population as a result. This is a huge issue. Wars over water and food resources are likely in the lifetimes of people now living.

    That’s a potential result, but he nails the issue of climate change.

    It all comes down to the rate of change.

  34. Mavis Smith @ #72 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:40 am

    DaretoTread:

    [‘The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.’]

    They’ve been digging for years (including a RC) but have come up with nothing. I doubt that any LOTO has been examined more closely than Shorten.

    I agree Mavis but sex stuff is always lurking somewhere and there is sure to be an ex girlfriend somewhere with an ax to grind (and happy for a fat pay check). But yes they have tried and failed so far so it will probably fall flat. I am actually not sure that sex attack stuff is particularly damaging anyway – unless you spout family values.

  35. DaretoTread @ #79 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:53 am

    frednk @ #68 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:36 am

    Yes DTT for sure.

    Oh give it a rest you paranoid grouper. I have been an active member of the ALP since you were in nappies. I will be out on the streets with a placard in my red T shirt soon (already have for the federal election). I will be an every fundraiser and will organise a polling booth. Will do my share of letterboxing and doorknocking. Not a fan of phone banking so will avoid.

    Sure i am a maverick although not nearly as much as you might think since I know many who share my views. The difference is I am eccentric (courageous) enough to say what i think and not hide behind the protective crowd of group think.

    I am a socialist and proud of it and as such I despise the grouper mentality that fans the flames of cold war hatred. I do not hate Russia or indeed the old USSR and see much in china to admire. Sure Stalin was terrible but his relevance to modern day Russia is non existent given he was Georgian. For the rest the USSR behaved like all other great powers including your adored USA. In the years since WWII only a bloody ignorant, partisan, USA bum licker would not grasp that in terms of imperial expansion, interference in other nations, bombing, death and destruction and crass exploitation, the USA has been far, far far more destructive that USSR. while the Baltic states and eastern Europe undoubtedly have some justifiable gripes compared with Cuba, South America, Korea, Vietnam iraq, Syria, Libya, Africa, they were being given a children,s birthday party replete with fairy bread.

    So if that makes me a Russiaphile then so be it but i will choose that any day over the conga line of USA suck holes which is probably Latham’s only positive contribution to policy debate. You seem to be part of the congo line for which I have utter contempt.

    The would rightly applied to you and many others is Neo Grouper and i see little difference between you and Tony Abbott on the world issues that matter. Santa Maria rides again.

    Stand tall comrade !

    Don’t let those noisy neo-libs wear you down

  36. Is Something Neurologically Wrong With Donald Trump?

    …speaking about his national-security plan in Washington, D.C., Trump reached under his podium and grabbed a glass with both hands. This time he kept them on the glass the entire time he drank, and as he put down the glass. This drew even more attention. The gesture was like that of an extremely cold person cradling a mug of cocoa. Some viewers likened Trump to a child just learning to handle a cup.

    Then there was an incident of slurred speech.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/01/trump-cog-decline/548759/

  37. dtt

    ‘.. sex stuff is always lurking somewhere and there is sure to be an ex girlfriend somewhere with an ax to grind (and happy for a fat pay check)’

    That works both ways – and it seems the Coalition has far more ex girlfriends looking for a nice fat pay check than Labor members do!

  38. DaretoTread @ #82 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:57 am

    Mavis Smith @ #72 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:40 am

    DaretoTread:

    [‘The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.’]

    They’ve been digging for years (including a RC) but have come up with nothing. I doubt that any LOTO has been examined more closely than Shorten.

    I agree Mavis but sex stuff is always lurking somewhere and there is sure to be an ex girlfriend somewhere with an ax to grind (and happy for a fat pay check). But yes they have tried and failed so far so it will probably fall flat. I am actually not sure that sex attack stuff is particularly damaging anyway – unless you spout family values.

    You and Nath should get together, I’m sure you could come up with something. 🙂

  39. Rex Douglas @ #82 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:55 am

    Player One @ #78 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    Rex Douglas @ #76 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    Terribly low rent propaganda but nonetheless will probably have an effect on some.

    Indeed. People like you.

    Didn’t sleep well, Player One ?

    Here Rex, you may want to read something …

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tanya-plibersek-on-her-brothers-death-and-husbands-drug-addiction-20150212-13cqrh.html

    Yes, this kind of thing may have an impact … it may help get Labor elected.

  40. zoomster @ #89 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    dtt

    ‘.. sex stuff is always lurking somewhere and there is sure to be an ex girlfriend somewhere with an ax to grind (and happy for a fat pay check)’

    That works both ways – and it seems the Coalition has far more ex girlfriends looking for a nice fat pay check than Labor members do!

    Very true – not sure that there will be too many for Scotty – he is not a ladies fancy – or perhaps ick is the right word. I have a suspicion than an ALP dirt unit might turn up stuff on Dutton (but they may need armed protection while digging) – the quadbike probably knows much

  42. Barney in Go Dau @ #90 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    DaretoTread @ #82 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:57 am

    Mavis Smith @ #72 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 8:40 am

    DaretoTread:

    [‘The Shorten one is worrying because i fear that they may go digging on this one.’]

    They’ve been digging for years (including a RC) but have come up with nothing. I doubt that any LOTO has been examined more closely than Shorten.

    I agree Mavis but sex stuff is always lurking somewhere and there is sure to be an ex girlfriend somewhere with an ax to grind (and happy for a fat pay check). But yes they have tried and failed so far so it will probably fall flat. I am actually not sure that sex attack stuff is particularly damaging anyway – unless you spout family values.

    You and Nath should get together, I’m sure you could come up with something. 🙂

    Please refer to my comment to Fred and accept it applies to you.

  43. Player One @ #89 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 10:02 am

    Rex Douglas @ #82 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:55 am

    Player One @ #78 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    Rex Douglas @ #76 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    Terribly low rent propaganda but nonetheless will probably have an effect on some.

    Indeed. People like you.

    Didn’t sleep well, Player One ?

    Here Rex, you may want to read something …

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tanya-plibersek-on-her-brothers-death-and-husbands-drug-addiction-20150212-13cqrh.html

    Yes, this kind of thing may have an impact … it may help get Labor elected.

    All these types of publicity has different effects on different people.

  45. DTT

    I will be out on the streets with a placard in my red T shirt soon (already have for the federal election).

    Will you also be sporting a red MAGA cap?

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