BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. Trump will cut a deal to leave office ‘before the end of 2019’: former Bush aide

    President Donald Trump will not be removed from office via an impeachment conviction, but he will make a deal to exit his presidency “before the end of 2019,” says a former advisor to President George W. Bush. Alan J. Steinberg in an NJ.com op-ed says Trump will craft a deal to protect himself, his children, and the Trump Organization.

    Trump will “use his presidency as a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities in 2019, agreeing to leave office in exchange for the relevant authorities not pursuing criminal charges against him, his children or the Trump Organization.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-will-cut-deal-leave-office-end-2019-former-bush-aide/

  2. Mueller’s report is on the way — and Donald Trump’s 2019 problems are just starting

    We are starting off the new year with a government shutdown and a president who mercilessly attacks Democrats and U.S. allies while issuing mash notes to authoritarian tyrants like Kim Jong-un — and would-be tyrants like Brazil’s new far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro. One imagines that President Trump was happy to spend his holiday alone in the residence, tucked up in bed chattering to his friends on his unsecured iPhone, ordering up cheeseburgers at all hours, watching Fox and tweeting. He seems to have enjoyed his White House staycation a great deal.

    Starting tomorrow it’s a whole new ballgame, however. For the first time since he assumed office, Trump will faced with a powerful foe: a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Right out of the gate, they’re at loggerheads over the budget.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/muellers-report-way-donald-trumps-2019-problems-just-starting/

  3. Draft-dodger Trump says he ‘would have been a good general’ while trashing James Mattis in Cabinet meeting rant

    President Donald Trump ended former Defense Secretary James Mattis’ tenure as defense secretary right before the New Year, seemingly in retaliation for a letter Mattis published criticizing President Trump’s global policy.

    At a cabinet meeting Wednesday, the President lashed out at Mattis.

    “What’s he done for me? How had he done in Afghanistan? Not too good,” Trump said.

    “As you know, president Obama fired him, and essentially so did I,” he added. In fact, general Mattis tendered his resignation after Trump announced the hasty withdrawal of troops from Syria. The President has since said he would slow the troop withdrawal.

    “I think I would have been a good general, but who knows?” the President added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/draft-dodger-trump-says-good-general-trashing-james-mattis-cabinet-meeting-rant/

  4. So where are these ISIS terrorists supposed to come from? I thought THEY had ‘Stopped the Boats’?

    Oh, that’s right, they can freely come in by plane.

    And, no, Labor won’t start the boats again, so where are they going to come from?

    Is there a journalist with a spine that will point that out?

  5. William did me over again! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I will not be in a position to pull the patrol together tomorrow morning as Ms BK and I will have to depart at 0630 for her to present herself to hospital for a day surgery procedure.

    In this challenging essay John Hewson posits that reform of our Federation, its structure, funding and operation, is now both a necessary and sufficient requirement for our nation to define itself and its future.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-as-designed-in-the-1890s-is-past-its-use-by-date-20190102-p50p6p.html
    Shane Wright says that the Australian property market is facing the moment of truth. He asks how much further can house prices fall and what the economic fallout from the wealth destruction that comes with a house price correction will be.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/aussie-property-market-facing-the-moment-of-truth-20190102-p50p8k.html
    David Wroe tells us that Dutton insists the revocation of terrorist Neil Prakash’s Australian citizenship is legally sound because he is also a Fijian national but has refused to detail the supporting advice from the government’s lawyers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-insists-undisclosed-legal-advice-shows-terrorist-neil-prakash-is-fijian-citizen-20190102-p50pai.html
    The Opal Tower issue is coming to a boil as the extent of the problems becomes known.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-s-a-lemon-opal-tower-owners-and-residents-rage-at-building-debacle-20190102-p50p6c.html
    Kim Carr has accused the NSW government of being indolent over Opal Tower/
    https://outline.com/S7qsq9
    Gladys seems to be getting boxed in over pill testing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-needs-to-be-more-open-minded-libs-urge-premier-to-rethink-pill-testing-20190102-p50p9y.html
    Former AFP commissioner Mick Palmer gets his head around the pill testing conundrum and concludes that the NSW government should have the courage to run a trial and go from there. He uses the experience of safe injecting rooms to support his argument.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/show-some-courage-on-pill-testing-and-save-young-lives-20190102-p50p7m.html
    Bridget McKenzie has chickened out of Mallee.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bridget-mckenzie-won-t-seek-to-replace-andrew-broad-in-mallee-20190102-p50p9k.html
    Travellers who booked flights through Australian budget airfare company Bestjet have been left thousands of dollars out of pocket after the business collapsed just days before Christmas. Nice.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/02/bestjet-collapse-leaves-angry-customers-thousands-out-of-pocket
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how Labor and Telstra’s NBN ambitions might merge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/how-labor-and-telstra-s-nbn-ambitions-might-merge-20190102-p50p7c.html
    ASIC’s new leadership team is vowing to be much tougher and take greater risks in court as part of an overhauled, litigate first strategy, newly appointed regulator Sean Hughes warns.
    https://outline.com/tD2FqU
    And ASIC has managed to convince the country’s leading credit card issuers to implement changes that should help consumers with credit card debt.
    https://outline.com/782GUB
    Anna Patty reports that workplace experts say Labor party proposals to criminalise wage theft in Victoria and NSW may be unconstitutional.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/criminalisation-of-wage-theft-likely-to-backfire-say-experts-20181212-p50lto.html
    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has ruled out privatising or outsourcing the next national census as the agency faces real funding cuts and a 16 per cent cut in ongoing staff numbers over the past two years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abs-rules-out-privatising-next-census-even-as-funding-tightens-20190102-p50p79.html
    Adam Creighton says that the government is probably secretly delighted that house prices are falling.
    https://www.outline.com/LngcWD
    I’ve never been a fan of Mitt Romney but he’s certainly got this right.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/romney-blasts-trump-saying-he-causes-dismay-around-the-world-20190103-p50pbc.html
    This neurological surgeon says that If you feel like you’re constantly playing catch-up with no time to achieve personal or professional fulfillment, it’s possible to turn it all around by changing one thing about your day: your morning routine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/want-to-make-a-perfect-start-to-your-day-here-are-three-tips-from-a-doctor-20190102-p50p7x.html
    The Australian reports that Barnaby Joyce and Vikki Campion charged taxpayers more than $6000 to travel to a pro-live sheep export forum in Western Australia, where organisers were split over whether the former deputy prime minister should attend.
    https://outline.com/x8Yddz
    Georgie Wolf explains a consent roadmap for sexual encounters. Makes sense.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/consent-is-a-road-map-to-a-great-sex-life-20180919-p504ol.html
    The CFMEU’s John Setka has been charged after a Boxing Day argument at his home. The government will make hay over this. Shorten needs to get in quickly.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/union-boss-john-setka-charged-after-boxing-day-argument-at-his-home-20190102-p50pb2.html
    Now Clive Palmer has run into copyright law.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-not-gonna-take-it-twisted-sister-accuses-clive-palmer-of-using-famed-anthem-in-political-ads-20190102-p50p8o.html
    Jess Irvine extols the benefits of the Great Aussie Road Trip. A nice contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bingo-australians-have-a-lot-to-be-grateful-for-including-roadtrips-20190102-p50p9i.html
    Gideon Haigh examines test cricket’s selection policy.
    https://www.outline.com/tKxEGC
    Today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week” goes to the airheaded parents who will not vaccinate their children.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/extremely-contagious-second-case-of-measles-in-sydney-20190102-p50pah.html
    Although this guy stakes a claim . . .
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-toxic-factories-and-west-footscray-factory-fire-link-to-same-man-20190102-p50paj.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David’s back with a little beauty.

    Cathy Wilcox and Twitter.

    Matt Golding has three for us today.



    Zanetti picks another shock jock issue.

    Glen Le Lievre with a new pill testing booth.

    And he drains the swamp.

    Alan Moir rolls out Old Father Time.

    From the US.




    Jon Kudelka on parliamentary representation by women.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4269d0a5268ec6a8dd9256ed02232159

  6. If Peter Dutton were Liberal leader, so long he promised major cuts to the immigration intake, the Coalition would win the election (narrowly although). It would be a pretty ugly campaign although, however the Liberals would sweep regions such as North and Central Queensland, Hunter Valley, Illawarra , Outer Western Suburbs of Sydney and Northern Tasmania. Along with outer suburban electorates in Adelaide and Perth. The Liberals would lose some more safer middle class seats in Melbourne and Sydney although.

  7. The United States Treasury has taken in MANY billions of dollars from the Tariffs we are charging China and other countries that have not treated us fairly. In the meantime we are doing well in various Trade Negotiations currently going on. At some point this had to be done!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2019

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *