BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. Mr Ed
    It is not the voters’ minds that have been changed, there is SFA viewers . The real damage will be that too many Coalition pollies were ‘captured’ by the Sky After Dark crowd and came to think the menagerie of commentators on there were ‘mainstream’ Liberal and expressing views of ‘the silent majority’.

  2. Mr Ed says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:48 pm
    Why we take any notice of a yank who bailed on his Aussie citizenship in anything to do with our nation is beyond me.

    The motivating factor for the faux journalists who work for murdoch has the same name in both the USA and Australia. That name is dollar. It is temping to say they have prostituted themselves but prostitutes usually deliver what they promise.

  3. @ItzaDream: I don’t drink, partly for this reason. But what I’ve given is only a statement of principle.

    In practice this would have to be quantified, and some sort of limit set. Something like shortens people’s lives on average by n standard deviations. You could then reduce the quantity/portions available to get under that limit. Then you tax the industry proportionally with the cost society is paying medically or otherwise.

  4. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:56 pm
    Onebobsworth @ #2146 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:51 pm

    How would Mackenzie fare against McGowan in Indi? Interesting to speculate. Would Cathy scotch retiring rumours so as to take on MacKenzie? Wouldn’t it be a hoot if she tossed McKenzie, or even better, MacKenzie wimped out?

    McGowan won’t run!

    Neither will McKenzie. Why give up another 3 years in the Senate to run in the current environment. Rather wait out the first 3 years of opposition in the Senate and then have a go. It could be a better environment then, if you think like a tory.

  5. Bushfire Bill @ #2148 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    GG, I’m proud to say I no longer listen to 2GB. I only ever used to listen to it in the car, usually on the way to the shops to buy a packet of fags.

    But as I no longer smoke, and as up here on the glorious NSW Mid-North Coast radio reception is so shithouse (and I’m also not sure whether 2GB is even syndicated up this way), I don’t get the oppirtunity for my daily 2GB heart-start anymore.

    And good riddance, too!

    Am holidaying at Tamarind beach north of Nimibn from 11/1.

    Am holidaying in Northern NSW. at Tamarind Beach north of Nimbin.

    Happy to travel.

    Murwillimbah?

  6. “I live in Melbourne. We don’t enjoy the rancid commentary which you seem to love and enjoy.

    More importantly, we are surviving very well.”

    Lucky you. 2GB is a sort of 24 hour radio version of Sky After Dark. Popular with taxi drivers.

  7. Peter Stanton

    As the tories seem to be filled with self delusion, then thinking like a tory might see McKenzie run.

    It’s quite easy to get the illusion, as you drift from one ribbon cutting event to the next, that you’re incredibly well known and popular in the area. After all, when you arrive for the ribbon cutting, everyone knows you and is really pleased to see you.

    Of course, they know you because they were told who was coming to do the ribbon cutting, and they’ve very pleased to see you because you’re the one cutting the ribbon for something they’ve worked sometimes years to obtain.

    Your cutting of the ribbon hasn’t really gained you a single vote, but you drift off in a cloud of well wishes and believe that what is really just basic politeness is an indication of personal popularity.

    And, of course, people being what they are, they’ve probably told you what they don’t like about the incumbent, giving you the idea that they prefer you (when in fact they’ve just saying what they know you want to hear).

    And, of course, anyone who does know you and doesn’t like you isn’t there to start with. Or if they are, they avoid speaking to you.

    It’s actually very hard for politicians to work out if they’re out of touch or not, or to form a realistic idea of their own personal popularity.

  8. …and, of course, both McGowan and McKenzie, by being coy about their intentions, are quite likely putting off other potential candidates.

    I’ve seen a couple of campaigns derailed this way. Either the coat trailer does the coat trailing so long that when they decide to run, they’ve wasted too much time, or when they finally announce they’re not going to, there’s a last minute scramble to find a substitute candidate, who then doesn’t have enough time to build a profile.

  9. zoomster @ #2160 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:34 pm

    …and, of course, both McGowan and McKenzie, by being coy about their intentions, are quite likely putting off other potential candidates.

    I’ve seen a couple of campaigns derailed this way. Either the coat trailer does the coat trailing so long that when they decide to run, they’ve wasted too much time, or when they finally announce they’re not going to, there’s a last minute scramble to find a substitute candidate, who then doesn’t have enough time to build a profile.

  10. Again: why would McKenzie leave the safety of the Senate for an unknown outcome in the HoR? She’s already had a failed HoR tilt to her name so I can understand her not wanting to go there again.

  11. Sydney and Melbournes house prices need to go back to at least 2013 values as most people havent had a pay rise to afford mortgage payments on properties since then.

  12. There was some other recent article in a Murdoch publication trying to whip up frenzy and outrage over the fact that solar subsidies cost a whopping $45/year out of everyone’s hard-earned taxes.

    The shock and horror! Why, that’s nearly a whole $4/month that we’re all paying for one of the few measures that’s actually helping to prevent Australia from going backwards energy-wise. Without this massive left-wing socialist tax scam we could all have like almost an entire extra cup of coffee each month instead of all this useless clean renewable energy from the sun!!!

  13. GG,

    Happy to travel.

    Murwillimbah?

    A little further south than that, I’m afraid. Not to sound too poetic about it but… out along the Lakes Way, east of Buladelah.

  14. Lovey says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:53 pm
    It seems Prakash is now actually stateless.

    The Abbott policy, carried through. The idea is always to make examples of the punished; to make their disgrace as conspicuous and complete as possible.

  15. One for ratsak: Marnus Labuschagne is apparently Australia’s new No.3.

    Now confirmed, ScoMo has intervened and assumed control of the selection panel.

    #captain’scall

  16. One for ratsak: Marnus Labuschagne is apparently Australia’s new No.3.

    Now confirmed, ScoMo has intervened and assumed control of the selection panel.

    #captain’scall

  17. A_E,

    I mean, why the fuck not? And why not get Stoinis in too. He made runs and took wickets in a BBL game. Shit, Ashton Turner made a brilliant 60not to almost get the Scorchers home tonight and he bowls offies. Drop Cummo and Lyon for those two.

    Season 8 of Game of Thrones should end with Trevor Hohns on the Iron Throne. (long may he reign)

  18. If what Andrew Earlwood says iis correct (can’t find corroboration yet) then it is a good indication that Morrison sees an imminent challenge to his authority, if not his position, from Dutton.

    Overiding Dutton’s “selection committee ” for bad people status is a major put down of Dutton, and a declaration by Morrison that he’s still the boss, that Dutton is a fool, and that Morrison will fight to protect his precious.

  19. Socrates @ #2121 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Peter Stanton
    “Dutton is an ex Qld cop. He can provide his own legal advice.”

    Indeed true. I’d still back my advice from the pub drunk on the back of a coaster for credibility 🙂

    If has “advice” existed, and even if it was credible, given the Fijian statement, it must be wrong.

    With legal advice, just because it’s “wrong”, i.e., a judge or other body comes to a different conclusion, does not necessarily mean that the advice was of a poor quality.

  20. Oh bloody hell, I thought Earlwood was referring to Dutton’s panel of people to blame, not cricket selection.

    As you were.

    Lovey, sorry if my impression from your previous posts was wrong.

    As you can see, misinterpretation is my speciality today.

  21. Bushfire Bill @ #2142 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:37 pm

    Let us not forget that 2GB is part of the 9 Network.

    Outsiders may see partitions erected between divisions of the 9 empire. They may hear protestations of “editorial independence” and suchlike, of “compartmentalisation”. They may even read slightly mocking articles in ex-Fairfax papers, revealing lascivious details of the private lives of Jones and Hadley.

    But to network insiders… money is money. 2GB, for the amount invested in it, dollar for dollar probably makes a fortune more than the old Fairfax rags, or probably even the 9 TV franchises themselves.

    In short, never forget: if 2GB puts out a message, you can bet your bottom dollar it’s with the full approval of management, now even more shrunken and tightly maintained than before.

    Its been my experience that divisions/departments within large companies are much more often than not are at war with each other.

  22. Zoidlord @ #2150 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    Antony Green
    ‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
    52s52 seconds ago

    For all those who think the Liberal Party would consider a change leader before the Federal election, let me just say Russell Cooper (QLD), Kristina Keneally (NSW) and Mike Moore (NZ), all of whom were 2nd go leadership changes and all suffered truly massive defeat

    So in other words its such a bad idea they’ll probably do it.

  23. Its been my experience that divisions/departments within large companies are much more often than not are at war with each other.

    Nevertheless, management counts the krones as if they are all the same color (which they are, of course). It’s all money, and if the public fall for the old “separate business units” scam then all the better for profitability.

    How the management of Fairfax would have laughed at all the deluded North Shore fools who harrumphed over their home-delivered Sydney Morning Heralds at those shockjock thugs on 2GB… not realising that the same newspaper they believed reflected their toffee-nosed views and employed that nice Peter Hartcher and that vivacious Elizabeth Farrelly and that cute Jacqui Maley and who loved Malcolm Turnbull so much also paid millions to Hadley, Chris Smith, Alan Jones, Steve Price, Andrew Bolt et al to slag Turnbull off at every opportunity and to thug it over every pathetic pissant masquerading as a “Liberal politician” up and down the great state of NSW from Byron Bay to Bega.

    As they raked in the profits from their 2-bob-each-way scam and counted the loot in the boardroom how amused they must have been at their own cleverness and at how you can never underestimate the boneheadedness of your average media consumer. “Never give a sucker an even break,” they would have chortled into their scotches.

    And now the 9 bogans with their Reality TV fetishes have gotten their hands on it. God help us all.

  24. And the US continues going (quite literally) to shit under Trump.

    California’s Joshua Tree National Park on Wednesday will become the latest casualty of the federal government’s partial shutdown, closing campgrounds due to health and safety concerns over near-capacity pit toilets.

    “The park is being forced to take this action for health and safety concerns as vault toilets reach capacity,” the park service said.

    “In addition to human waste in public areas, driving off-road and other infractions that damage the resource are becoming a problem.”

    The shutdown has also left a stinking mess at Yosemite National Park in the Sierra Nevada mountain range in eastern California.

    Yosemite, the nation’s third most-visited national park, remains open but various campgrounds as well as snow play areas are “closed due to human waste issues and lack of staffing,” according to its website.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/01/us/government-shutdown-national-parks-toilets-services/index.html

  25. Flicked on tv this am while getting ready for work, abc not running news yet so had a quick glance at 9 and 7……both running with ISIS getting in to country by pretending to be refugees – lead story.

    Morrison / Dutton / Murdoch have control of the narrative .

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I will not be in a position to pull the patrol together tomorrow morning as Ms BK and I will have to depart at 0630 for her to present herself to hospital for a day surgery procedure.

    In this challenging essay John Hewson posits that reform of our Federation, its structure, funding and operation, is now both a necessary and sufficient requirement for our nation to define itself and its future.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-as-designed-in-the-1890s-is-past-its-use-by-date-20190102-p50p6p.html
    Shane Wright says that the Australian property market is facing the moment of truth. He asks how much further can house prices fall and what the economic fallout from the wealth destruction that comes with a house price correction will be.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/aussie-property-market-facing-the-moment-of-truth-20190102-p50p8k.html
    David Wroe tells us that Dutton insists the revocation of terrorist Neil Prakash’s Australian citizenship is legally sound because he is also a Fijian national but has refused to detail the supporting advice from the government’s lawyers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-insists-undisclosed-legal-advice-shows-terrorist-neil-prakash-is-fijian-citizen-20190102-p50pai.html
    The Opal Tower issue is coming to a boil as the extent of the problems becomes known.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-s-a-lemon-opal-tower-owners-and-residents-rage-at-building-debacle-20190102-p50p6c.html
    Kim Carr has accused the NSW government of being indolent over Opal Tower/
    https://outline.com/S7qsq9
    Gladys seems to be getting boxed in over pill testing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-needs-to-be-more-open-minded-libs-urge-premier-to-rethink-pill-testing-20190102-p50p9y.html
    Former AFP commissioner Mick Palmer gets his head around the pill testing conundrum and concludes that the NSW government should have the courage to run a trial and go from there. He uses the experience of safe injecting rooms to support his argument.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/show-some-courage-on-pill-testing-and-save-young-lives-20190102-p50p7m.html
    Bridget McKenzie has chickened out of Mallee.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bridget-mckenzie-won-t-seek-to-replace-andrew-broad-in-mallee-20190102-p50p9k.html
    Travellers who booked flights through Australian budget airfare company Bestjet have been left thousands of dollars out of pocket after the business collapsed just days before Christmas. Nice.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/02/bestjet-collapse-leaves-angry-customers-thousands-out-of-pocket
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how Labor and Telstra’s NBN ambitions might merge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/how-labor-and-telstra-s-nbn-ambitions-might-merge-20190102-p50p7c.html
    ASIC’s new leadership team is vowing to be much tougher and take greater risks in court as part of an overhauled, litigate first strategy, newly appointed regulator Sean Hughes warns.
    https://outline.com/tD2FqU
    And ASIC has managed to convince the country’s leading credit card issuers to implement changes that should help consumers with credit card debt.
    https://outline.com/782GUB
    Anna Patty reports that workplace experts say Labor party proposals to criminalise wage theft in Victoria and NSW may be unconstitutional.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/criminalisation-of-wage-theft-likely-to-backfire-say-experts-20181212-p50lto.html
    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has ruled out privatising or outsourcing the next national census as the agency faces real funding cuts and a 16 per cent cut in ongoing staff numbers over the past two years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abs-rules-out-privatising-next-census-even-as-funding-tightens-20190102-p50p79.html
    Adam Creighton says that the government is probably secretly delighted that house prices are falling.
    https://www.outline.com/LngcWD
    I’ve never been a fan of Mitt Romney but he’s certainly got this right.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/romney-blasts-trump-saying-he-causes-dismay-around-the-world-20190103-p50pbc.html
    This neurological surgeon says that If you feel like you’re constantly playing catch-up with no time to achieve personal or professional fulfillment, it’s possible to turn it all around by changing one thing about your day: your morning routine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/want-to-make-a-perfect-start-to-your-day-here-are-three-tips-from-a-doctor-20190102-p50p7x.html
    The Australian reports that Barnaby Joyce and Vikki Campion charged taxpayers more than $6000 to travel to a pro-live sheep export forum in Western Australia, where organisers were split over whether the former deputy prime minister should attend.
    https://outline.com/x8Yddz
    Georgie Wolf explains a consent roadmap for sexual encounters. Makes sense.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/consent-is-a-road-map-to-a-great-sex-life-20180919-p504ol.html
    The CFMEU’s John Setka has been charged after a Boxing Day argument at his home. The government will make hay over this. Shorten needs to get in quickly.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/union-boss-john-setka-charged-after-boxing-day-argument-at-his-home-20190102-p50pb2.html
    Now Clive Palmer has run into copyright law.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-not-gonna-take-it-twisted-sister-accuses-clive-palmer-of-using-famed-anthem-in-political-ads-20190102-p50p8o.html
    Jess Irvine extols the benefits of the Great Aussie Road Trip. A nice contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bingo-australians-have-a-lot-to-be-grateful-for-including-roadtrips-20190102-p50p9i.html
    Gideon Haigh examines test cricket’s selection policy.
    https://www.outline.com/tKxEGC
    Today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week” goes to the airheaded parents who will not vaccinate their children.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/extremely-contagious-second-case-of-measles-in-sydney-20190102-p50pah.html
    Although this guy stakes a claim . . .
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-toxic-factories-and-west-footscray-factory-fire-link-to-same-man-20190102-p50paj.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David’s back with a little beauty.

    Cathy Wilcox and Twitter.

    Matt Golding has three for us today.



    Zanetti picks another shock jock issue.

    Glen Le Lievre with a new pill testing booth.

    And he drains the swamp.

    Alan Moir rolls out Old Father Time.

    From the US.




    Jon Kudelka on parliamentary representation by women.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4269d0a5268ec6a8dd9256ed02232159

  27. Rick Wilsons latest regarding new senator Mitt Romneys explosive comments on Trump and the damage he has done

    Mitt Romney Is the Most Dangerous Man in Trump’s City of Lackeys

    What Romney did was utterly simple: He said out loud what a vast majority of Republican officials will only say in private.

    Romney’s editorial is in many ways a bookend to his 2016 speech condemning Trump. In a speech at the Hinckley Institute in Utah, Romney tore the bark off Trump, calling for Republicans to hold to some shred of their principles and reject Trump. That call to arms went sadly unheeded, and every prediction he made concerning Trump’s disastrous reign of misrule is playing out.

    Romney has a chance to make something of his position in the U.S. Senate that no one save the late John McCain would. Yes, we’ve seen a handful of truth-tellers in the Senate, but they rarely hit so keenly as today’s Romney nuke strike.

    He has a chance to be a voice for the facts, for principles, and for personal integrity. The coward caucus won’t get the headlines, the media attention, and the political capital that flows from calling on Republicans to live up to their principles and for providing a living contrast to Trump’s egregious, juvenile behavior. Romney just might.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mitt-romney-is-the-most-dangerous-man-in-trumps-city-of-lackeys

  28. USA Today op-ed lays out damning evidence that Trump attempted Russia collusion in plain sight

    President Donald Trump committed a campaign violation and attempted Russia collusion in plan sight, according to a pair of legal experts.

    The president’s longtime attorney, Michael Cohen, implicated Trump in a conspiracy when he pleaded guilty violate campaign finance law, but ethics watchdogs Fred Wertheimer and Norm Eisen published an op-ed in USA Today pointing to an even more obvious crime.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/usa-today-op-ed-lays-damning-evidence-trump-attempted-russia-collusion-plain-sight/

    USA TODAY :

    Trump illegally asked Russia to help him win in 2016. He shouldn’t get away with it.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/01/02/trump-broke-law-russia-clinton-emails-hold-him-accountable-column/2449564002/

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