BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 8:35 pm

    Shellbell @ #2094 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    In pill testing, are the dangerous pills confiscated and given to the police?

    From what I read the pill being tested is destroyed by the test, and there is an option of putting your other pills in a bin.
    __________________________
    It;s a brilliant idea. How could anyone be against it.

  2. Late Riser @ #2097 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:35 pm

    Shellbell @ #2094 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    In pill testing, are the dangerous pills confiscated and given to the police?

    From what I read the pill being tested is destroyed by the test, and there is an option of putting your other pills in a bin.

    Wodak said on The Drum that the test is done by tiny scrapings off the pill. The pill integrity is retained.

    What happens next is explained here (lizzie’s link from this morning):

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018-12-21/guide-to-pill-testing-at-australian-music-festivals/10638732

    2. Next, the patron hands over a pill (or capsule or powder) to a chemist who photographs and weighs the substance, and explains that the test results apply only to the test sample (which will be destroyed in the testing process).

    3. The sample — which may range from a thin scraping to an entire pill — is analysed using an FTIR spectrophotometer. This detects substances by passing an infrared beam through the sample and checking the result against a library of 30,000 substances.

    4. The chemist labels the sample with one of three classifications: white — the substance is what the person anticipated; yellow — the substance is different to what the person anticipated; or red — the substance is known to be associated with increased harm / multiple overdoses / death (or the machine is unable to identify it, suggesting the drug is new).

    5. This information is relayed to the person by a medical practitioner who outlines the potential dangers of each substance (that includes those identified a ‘white’ result).

    6. The person is directed to a drug and alcohol counsellor who provides information about the risks of consuming the substance identified, and ways they can reduce their risk (e.g. not taking the substance, or taking a smaller dose).

    7. Before leaving the tent, the person is advised of an “amnesty bin” in which they are able dispose of any drugs they have on them.

  3. I was out today and just catching up with the news. Amazed that Dutton is still sticking to his story he has “legal advice” that Prakesh is a Fijian citizen. Who from? His mum? George Brandis? He must be annoyed with whoever has providedthis advice now that Fiji has confirmed Prakesh is not a citizen. Will Dutton demand the money back? Will Dutton take the advice to a court? I doubt it.

    I think I will get some legal advice confirming I should be prime minister. I will write out that I should be PM on the back of a pub drink coaster. I will title it “Legal advice” and ask a nearby drunk to sign it. Presto! Very valuable.

  4. ItzaDream, Thanks.

    These are the relevant bits for me.

    The sample — which may range from a thin scraping to an entire pill — is analysed using an FTIR spectrophotometer.

    Before leaving the tent, the person is advised of an “amnesty bin” in which they are able dispose of any drugs they have on them.

    Everything else is secondary. If the test goes red maybe I’ll throw my stuff away in the tent or maybe not. But at least I’d know something. If there was a sniff of police involvement I wouldn’t go near the place with illegal pills.

  5. Evening all. We are finally home! Two days travelling from the NSW north coast, overnighting in Sydney and I’ll be happy if I never experience another horrid humid day for the rest of the year. But it was good to catch up with family and people I haven’t seen for years.

    Moving on though, 19 degrees forecast tomorrow here. Bliss! We really do live in the best part of this country.

    #weatheronPB
    #travelonPB
    #summeronPB

  6. Many years ago when I was a young political activist I had some dealings with George Cash, father of Michaelia. George is now a grandee of the Liberal party. Michaelia is her fathers daughter. My friends in Perth tell me she fancies herself as the net member for Curtin. That is if J Bishop ever retires and father still has the grunt to push it through.

  7. Socrates
    Make sure you don’t show your legal advise to anyone. Your aim is be able to say “you have legal advise”; nothing more. You don’t want someone saying they have seen it and you are full of shit;

  8. There are a few articles around about transport policy lately. Some are good. This NSW one is odd.

    NSW Liberals plan to build a metro line to Parramatta (good) by the “mid to late 2020s” (not so good). There is still no business case (bad) or location for the stations (very bad). With so many details unknown, how can they even cost it? What is it, a line on a map or a serious plan?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parts-of-metro-west-rail-line-may-be-built-above-ground-says-minister-20190102-p50p9e.html

  9. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:00 pm
    I was out today and just catching up with the news. Amazed that Dutton is still sticking to his story he has “legal advice” that Prakesh is a Fijian citizen.

    Dutton is an ex Qld cop. He can provide his own legal advice.

  10. The other article I saw was this one highlighting the need for a national transport emissions policy. Putting aside the Labor – Greens wars, this is a growing issue. If we are serious about Paris commitments, energy emissions will take care of themselves, given no political interference. Transport emissions will not. They have been rising with population and inadequate public transport. Transport is now > 20% of total emissions in Oz. Electric cars will not be sufficient.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parts-of-metro-west-rail-line-may-be-built-above-ground-says-minister-20190102-p50p9e.html

  11. Obviously she couldn’t get the numbers…

    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie will not run in the regional Victorian federal seat of Mallee, despite weeks of speculation she would move to the lower house and succeed disgraced MP Andrew Broad.

    Leading Nationals figures have pushed for a woman to succeed Mr Broad after he was revealed to be using a “sugar daddy website” to meet younger women overseas.

    Senator McKenzie was immediately brought up as a potential candidate as she is the most prominent woman in the Nationals, and there have been numerous reports she has considered a move to the lower house.

    But she was not as well connected to Mallee as she is to another seat she is often linked to, Indi, and Mallee locals told The Australian this would count against her in a preselection battle.

    Nominations for Nationals Party preselection in Mallee will close on Friday, with party members due to select their successful candidate on January 19.

  12. What is it, a line on a map or a serious plan?

    A pre-election sweetner! The metro extension out past Redfern has lovely ticker tape banner across the fencing announcing ‘a train every 4 minutes’, overlooking the fact that the existing metro lines don’t offer that (or anywhere near that from my experiences), and are teeny tiny trams that squeeze people in sardine-like during peak hour. Woefully inadequate for current demand, let alone future demand.

    Very unsatisfactory. Lots of over-promising and under-delivering methinks.

  13. Chris Kenny on 3aw telling us what a terrible thing compulsory superannuation is. Last night it was how terrible the banning of plastic bags is. And a few nights ago it was what a terrible waste of money the desalination plants were (because there’s no such thing as climate change you see). Suffice to say that Chris is not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

  14. “And the High Court will so hold! ”

    And that was legal advice being freely given by one of the top barristers in Australia. 🙂

    Anyway, the blighted Potato would have shopped for the legal advice he was after. No doubt about it.

    Doesn’t make it legal advice that would hold up in the High Court.

  15. Darn @ #2116 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:11 pm

    Chris Kenny on 3aw telling us what a terrible thing compulsory superannuation is. Last night it was how terrible the banning of plastic bags is. And a few nights ago it was what a terrible waste of money the desalination plants were (because there’s no such thing as climate change you see). Suffice to say that Chris is not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

    Is there any one out there Chris?

  16. Senator McKenzie was immediately brought up as a potential candidate as she is the most prominent woman in the Nationals

    Are there other women in the Nationals?

  17. Peter Stanton
    “Dutton is an ex Qld cop. He can provide his own legal advice.”

    Indeed true. I’d still back my advice from the pub drunk on the back of a coaster for credibility 🙂

    If has “advice” existed, and even if it was credible, given the Fijian statement, it must be wrong.

  18. Upnorth @ #2114 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:10 pm

    Obviously she couldn’t get the numbers…

    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie will not run in the regional Victorian federal seat of Mallee, despite weeks of speculation she would move to the lower house and succeed disgraced MP Andrew Broad.

    Leading Nationals figures have pushed for a woman to succeed Mr Broad after he was revealed to be using a “sugar daddy website” to meet younger women overseas.

    Senator McKenzie was immediately brought up as a potential candidate as she is the most prominent woman in the Nationals, and there have been numerous reports she has considered a move to the lower house.

    But she was not as well connected to Mallee as she is to another seat she is often linked to, Indi, and Mallee locals told The Australian this would count against her in a preselection battle.

    Nominations for Nationals Party preselection in Mallee will close on Friday, with party members due to select their successful candidate on January 19.

    She was always more likely to run in Indi!

  19. Darn says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:11 pm
    Suffice to say that Chris is not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

    Chris is more that rusty old hammer that was left out in the rain last winter.

  20. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:13 pm
    Senator McKenzie was immediately brought up as a potential candidate as she is the most prominent woman in the Nationals

    Are there other women in the Nationals?

    Ask Barnaby.

  21. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:13 pm
    Peter Stanton
    “Dutton is an ex Qld cop. He can provide his own legal advice.”

    Indeed true. I’d still back my advice from the pub drunk on the back of a coaster for credibility

    If has “advice” existed, and even if it was credible, given the Fijian statement, it must be wrong.

    If i ever need legal advice I may ask you for that drunks name.

  22. C@t:

    I wonder if she has the ticker to be a Liberal MP. She has always struck me as someone more comfortable firing advice from the sidelines where she can be all care, no responsibility. If she was in the partyroom she’d have to take some ownership for her actions and her words, when as a media commentator she can say whatever she wants.

  23. Socrates, I should expand on my last comment about advice from a drunk written on the back of a beer coaster. Back in the 90s during my trade union days I drafted an amendment to a proposed agreement on restructuring of a federal government enterprise on the back of a several beer coaster at 2.00am in the Italian Waiters Club in Melbourne. It was subsequently accepted during negotiations and went on to be used as a principle in many federal government agreements.

  24. “If has “advice” existed, and even if it was credible, given the Fijian statement, it must be wrong.”

    Seems that daS UberPotatoFurher forgot that the Fijians will decide who is a citizen of their country and under what circumstances they are citizens. 🙂

  25. Let us not forget that 2GB is part of the 9 Network.

    Outsiders may see partitions erected between divisions of the 9 empire. They may hear protestations of “editorial independence” and suchlike, of “compartmentalisation”. They may even read slightly mocking articles in ex-Fairfax papers, revealing lascivious details of the private lives of Jones and Hadley.

    But to network insiders… money is money. 2GB, for the amount invested in it, dollar for dollar probably makes a fortune more than the old Fairfax rags, or probably even the 9 TV franchises themselves.

    In short, never forget: if 2GB puts out a message, you can bet your bottom dollar it’s with the full approval of management, now even more shrunken and tightly maintained than before.

  26. C@tmomma @ #2082 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 4:53 pm

    So, as well as not being able to count, Peter Dutton is incapable of understanding citizenship law, which he is meant to be administering.

    What you can guarantee is that, if Neil Prakash had been able to be deported back to Fiji, he would have claimed all the credit.

    Anyway, I can see right through his tissue thin excuse that he came up with today, that citizenship issues are for some quango board to decide, because, as we have seen with every other sinecure which is in the gift of the Coalition government, it will have been stacked with like-minded mates. So the decisions that they make would always be the ones that the government wanted.

    The only thing that the Coalition can’t control, and especially in the age of Chinese money flooding the Pacific, so the old fallback of withdrawing Aid no longer works, is the other government!

    I’m strongly opposed to stripping the citizenship of anyone regardless of their (alleged) crimes. I’m also opposed to the deportation of very long-term permanent residents on character grounds.

    In both these circumstances, the individuals concerned are very likely to be bad people, *OUR* bad people. The correct treatment of these people is trial in accordance with the law followed by jail. Summary deportation and/or stripping of citizenship simply transfers the problem elsewhere, which is completely unacceptable. We need to deal with our own problems, not foist them on an unsuspecting other country.

  27. Bushfire Bill @ #2140 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:37 pm

    Let us not forget that 2GB is part of the 9 Network.

    Outsiders may see partitions erected between divisions of the 9 empire. They may hear protestations of “editorial independence” and suchlike, of “compartmentalisation”. They may even read slightly mocking articles in ex-Fairfax papers, revealing lascivious details of the private lives of Jones and Hadley.

    But to network insiders… money is money. 2GB, for the amount invested in it, dollar for dollar probably makes a fortune more than the old Fairfax rags, or probably even the 9 TV franchises themselves.

    In short, never forget: if 2GB puts out a message, you can bet your bottom dollar it’s with the full approval of management, now even more shrunken and tightly exercised than before.

    What’s a fucking 2gb?

    I live in Melbourne. We don’t enjoy the rancid commentary which you seem to love and enjoy.

    More importantly, we are surviving very well.

  28. Those after dark mates of Chris peddling Murdoch’s view of the world have proven to be a disaster for the L/NP. Their constant dribble about how bad is Labor, how good the L/NP has turned middle of the road voters away from the Libs in droves. Look at the polls for the last few years.
    These commentators are now impotent in getting their message out to other than rusted on voters.
    As others have said here, they are regarded by more than 50% of the electorate as extremists and out of touch. Why we take any notice of a yank who bailed on his Aussie citizenship in anything to do with our nation is beyond me.

  29. How would Mackenzie fare against McGowan in Indi? Interesting to speculate. Would Cathy scotch retiring rumours so as to take on MacKenzie? Wouldn’t it be a hoot if she tossed McKenzie, or even better, MacKenzie wimped out?

  30. GG, I’m proud to say I no longer listen to 2GB. I only ever used to listen to it in the car, usually on the way to the shops to buy a packet of fags.

    But as I no longer smoke, and as up here on the glorious NSW Mid-North Coast radio reception is so shithouse (and I’m also not sure whether 2GB is even syndicated up this way), I don’t get the oppirtunity for my daily 2GB heart-start anymore.

    And good riddance, too!

  31. Socrates says:

    Peter Stanton
    “Dutton is an ex Qld cop. He can provide his own legal advice.”

    Qld. eh ? In that case he might also have a statement from the ‘guilty’ party confessing to the crime. Not signed but fair dinkum none the less.

  32. Antony Green
    ‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
    52s52 seconds ago

    For all those who think the Liberal Party would consider a change leader before the Federal election, let me just say Russell Cooper (QLD), Kristina Keneally (NSW) and Mike Moore (NZ), all of whom were 2nd go leadership changes and all suffered truly massive defeat

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