BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. You come out with some real stinkers sometimes, Rex Douglas.

    NSW should elect more
    Independents!?!

    You mean like the strongly allegedly, I think is the best way to put it, corrupt Richard Torbay? Or maybe Mark Latham is more your style? Or David Leyonhjelm? Or more Shooters Fishers and Farmers?
    Or Christian Democrats?

    They are all Independent parties and not one of the 3 Majors- Labor, Liberal and Nationals.

    So is that what you want?

  2. “Barney, he’s not an independent. He’s a Christian Democrat and quite a few different people have been elected under that party name. I’m thinking Mack, Moore, Windsor, Andren & Greenwich.

    Rubbish, he’s Fred Nile and anyone else elected was elected because they were associated with Fred Nile.”

    But surely he isn’t independent as he is god’s chosen representative!!??

  3. I would be against Michelle Obama running for President, simply for the anti-dynastic aspects of it.

    The Roosevelts (I know, only casually related, but..), the Kennedys (literally killed off), the Bush’s (with talk of even Jeb having a run at one stage), the Clintons (nipped in the bud) were bad enough.

    But to have a fifth dynasty try to set itself up would be too much.

  4. WWP

    Actually I think it was once women’s cricket started being discussed during telecasts.

    The last five years have seen an extraordinary expansion of women’s professional and semi-professional sport.

    It is great to see (after the Netball set the ball rolling) the women’s BBL (and their other forms getting more attention), the W-League, the AFLW, the women’s NRL.

    A different world. Watching surfers today I can remember when there were just about no girls or women surfing.

    We live in the 21st Century. Abbott and co want us to go back to the 19th !

  5. “I would be against Michelle Obama running for President”

    I kind of agree, the dynasty aspect is a bit weird in a country with so many people to choose from, but unlike Bill Clinton, the Obama legacy is about as strong as it could possibly be while he is still alive, a Michelle run, win, loose or draw can only detract. There are one or two (million) other black women in the US just as qualified, even if they have literally hit the bottom of the barrel old useless white guy wise.

    The already serious contenders run into the essentially misogynistic categories allowed for women politicians of ‘too inexperienced’ (studies have shown women candidates are almost always far more experienced and qualified than male candidates in the US) or ‘damaged by being a politician’ too long. There is no sweet spot.

  6. BB
    Ava Gardner adds some merit to it but I think the Count may have made some casual mention that he was sans-balls sometime earlier than 30 seconds before he was expected to perform

  7. C@tmomma @ #1950 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    You come out with some real stinkers sometimes, Rex Douglas.

    NSW should elect more
    Independents!?!

    You mean like the strongly allegedly, I think is the best way to put it, corrupt Richard Torbay? Or maybe Mark Latham is more your style? Or David Leyonhjelm? Or more Shooters Fishers and Farmers?
    Or Christian Democrats?

    They are all Independent parties and not one of the 3 Majors- Labor, Liberal and Nationals.

    So is that what you want?

    More ‘Tim Storer’ types.

  8. “The last five years have seen an extraordinary expansion of women’s professional and semi-professional sport.
    It is great to see (after the Netball set the ball rolling) the women’s BBL (and their other forms getting more attention), the W-League, the AFLW, the women’s NRL.”

    Yes this is fantastic, I have watched more WBBL on the TV or computer than I have watched BBL, and I have watched the same number of live games, and the women’s games have been as good, or better, and commentated between 100% and 300% better than ponting and the various idiot males on 7.

    I could be wrong, it just I don’t expect Cricket Australia or Channel 7 to respect women at all on recent history of disgraceful behaviour, so if that is what they are doing, my ‘must be an Americanism’ conclusion could be wrong.

  9. BB
    Pedant’s point
    You left out the Harrisons grandfather and grandson and
    the Adams father and son
    The US is almost as bad as Ireland and the Labor Party in Newcastle

  10. Rocket Rocket

    The last five years have seen an extraordinary expansion of women’s professional and semi-professional sport.

    It is great to see (after the Netball set the ball rolling) the women’s BBL (and their other forms getting more attention), the W-League, the AFLW, the women’s NRL.

    A different world. Watching surfers today I can remember when there were just about no girls or women surfing.

    It’s absolutely fantastic to see. Must be so inspiring for the kids in school these days to have so many options.

  11. oakeshott country says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 1:30 pm
    Last night I had the misfortune to watch “The Barefoot Contessa” a classic movie of the 50s which won some academy awards.

    It revolves about the Contessa, who is a working class Spanish dancer (really, not rhyming slang for cancer) having a troubled private live before being rescued and having a whirlwind romance with the Count.
    On the wedding night he turns up and says wtte “Oh by the way I got my balls shot off during the war”. She then gets knocked up by the Gypsy gardener so the count shoots both of them.

    You couldn’t make this crap up if you tried

    Are you sure it was not a documentary about a national Party senator?

  12. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 1:42 pm
    Incidentally when did “batsmen” cease being batsmen and start being “batters”?

    Does this have something to do with the prominence of women’s cricket? (I must admit “batsperson” sounds somewhat unwieldy)

    In the Australian men’s team swingers would be a better name. They are not batting anything very much.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #1957 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:03 am

    C@tmomma @ #1950 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    You come out with some real stinkers sometimes, Rex Douglas.

    NSW should elect more
    Independents!?!

    You mean like the strongly allegedly, I think is the best way to put it, corrupt Richard Torbay? Or maybe Mark Latham is more your style? Or David Leyonhjelm? Or more Shooters Fishers and Farmers?
    Or Christian Democrats?

    They are all Independent parties and not one of the 3 Majors- Labor, Liberal and Nationals.

    So is that what you want?

    More ‘Tim Storer’ types.

    I don’t think he appeals to the Fred Nile demographic!

  14. WeWantPaul @ #1924 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 12:19 pm

    I’m available to rule NSW, if you can appoint me, give me an army and unconstrained authority and power, wit no constraints, you’ll be running like clockwork with the first 10 years of my glorious reign (and look with the internet I can do it without leaving WA).

    Or you losers could try and do democracy, you know, better.

    Which is exactly what not allowing any one party to have an unchecked majority does.

    You get sensible government (and better democracy) by forcing compromise positions that more than just one cohort can agree with (n.b. this is not the same as the Greens forcing compromise positions that nobody, even their own voters, wants). Without that all you get is (self-defeating) ideological dictatorship (as unchecked governments inevitably overreach and the pendulum swings back and forth from one ideological extreme to the other and the two sides just keep undoing everything the other side tries to do).

  15. Michelle Obama makes it quite clear in her book that she will not be running for any political position. She states that she does not like politics much at all. My experience is that many politician’s spouses develop a dislike of politics when they see the toll it takes on their spouse and family.

  16. WWP

    I saw the first AFLW game at Princes Park and it was just a brilliant atmosphere with Collingwood playing Carlton.

    We are looking forward to St.Kilda joining the league next year. This year North Melbourne and Geelong are joining, bringing games to Tasmania and Geelong.

  17. “Incidentally when did “batsmen” cease being batsmen and start being “batters”?”

    The things that batter?

    I have played on a ground where the scoreboard columns were titled Batador and Bowlador.

  18. Peter Stanton
    Well I guess it was up to the press of the time to check the dates (and at the same time respect the Contessa’s privacy until she could get a deal with New Idea)

  19. lol

    tomred
    ‏ @TomRed43
    6h6 hours ago

    Speculation grows that Tony Abbott’s Christmas photo may have been digitally altered. #auspol #abbott #libspill #fakephotogate

  20. Zoidlord @ #1966 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/federal-mp-must-surrender-documents-about-police-raid-on-union/

    Turnbull Government minister Michaelia Cash has lost her Federal Court bid to block access to “key documents”

    I like how, now the the embarrassing side-show is imminent, Cash is a “Turnbull Government minister” even though she continues to hold a ministry under Morrison.

    “The first order of business is to blame everything on the guy before me.” Though I have no idea why the media and/or random bloggers would choose to be complicit in that.

  21. FatherBob
    ‏Verified account @FatherBob
    8h8 hours ago

    Melb Age…David Wroe reports on closure of Maribyrnong Detention Centre…my concern is where are the detainees being relocated? They need visitors, professional and pastoral, for sanity’s sake. As a community, WE owe them a duty of care.

  22. frednk @ #1735 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 4:26 am

    I can understand the wire barriers down the center, but the edges? The barriers are way too close in my view. If you need to stop you can’t get off. You now see people far to close to the traffic changing tyres, in my view it is bloody dangerous.

    The people killed going to sleep running off the road must exceed the people killed changing tyres.

    There was a case on the western highway. Truck pulled over as far as he could; had to engine died; because of the barriers. Car ran into back, death toll up by one.

    The safety directive we operate under in work cars if a tyre needs is to keep driving at a reduced speed until such time we can pull into a carpark to change the tyre.

  23. Victoria says: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 2:48 pm

    Fulvio sammut

    Fair enough!

    ********************************************************

    Victoria – I know you have been out earlier today and if you haven’t already, go see my post at 12.28/page 38 – I am sure you will enjoy as much as I did ….

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