The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.
There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.
UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.
And The Greens will be in government to implement their 100% Renewables policy, when?
Though, sensibly, I see Quoll has abandoned the stupid Carbon Tax policy of The Greens very quickly indeed! 😆
phylactella @ #337 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 7:57 pm
But, it is Boxing Day!
@ Boer
“Coalition wrecks.
Greens fantasize.
Labor does.”
What the King dreams, the Hand builds.
In theory Trump is the most powerful man in the world but in practice he’s just a juvenile whinger:
A beautiful set of State numbers; and though the gap will narrow, the Tories are cactus.
“NEW YORK (Reuters) – The United States Army’s finances are so jumbled it had to make trillions of dollars of improper accounting adjustments to create an illusion that its books are balanced.”
I do the accounts for a smallish not-for-profit and get concerned if there’s ever a discrepancy of a few dollars in the books. Maybe I should learn a few tricks from the US Army and never have to worry again!
I saw this bizarre photo of the Trumps today. Donald Trump was pulling a crazy face and Melania Trump was stood beside him with that model grin she manifests on cue, like some Madam Tussaud’s statue. Weird.
We’re going to see “The Favourite” tomorrow at the HOTA, Gold Coast. Knowing the history of this period, I have high hopes:
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/the-top-10-films-of-2018-20181226-p50o9b.html
Mavis Smith @ #357 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 7:55 pm
HOTA is a great venue. We saw Tim Minchin earlier this year at HOTA,and for no money. Wonderful.
Late Riser:
Agree. I’ll provide a critique of this film, to my limited ability.
I recommend ‘Captain Fantastic’ with Viggo Mortensen. I caught up with it on Netflix. A fascinating dissection of an Alternative Lifestyle family trying to avoid the pitfalls of modern life.
There are a range of academics and organisations that clearly support and report that 100% renewables by the 2030’s is likely to be a fact of life whatever the Labor chooses to do. Due in part to the dollars and interest of Australian householders and businesses almost entirely despite the government recently.
Labors half baked 50% target could be exceeded by 2025 as is, doing absolutely nothing more than now.
The idea that outcomes of energy policy in government are resolved by random debates on a blog are ridiculous. It’s up to who the Australian people put in that house in Canberra to deal with the circumstances, of who else is there and what is happening in the immediate and distant world outside that house.
The Labor Greens govt in the ACT has had a long standing 100% renewables policy.
Energy policy needs to get on board the renewable energy train
http://energy.anu.edu.au/news-events/energy-policy-needs-get-board-renewable-energy-train
You might call 50% Renewables ‘half-baked’,Quoll, but since the Coalition all but destroyed the Renewables industry, 50% is a more realistic goal. The industry needs to be reborn first.
But you keep up with finding ways to hate on Labor, Quoll. Labor will get on with being realistic and sensible.
The perfect is the enemy of the good – proven time and again.
Quoll
I agree with you that 100% renewable energy is inevitable by early 2030s.
However not everyone is as well informed. Labor whether you like it or not have to be electable and that means being credible.
What Labor does while in office is what matters. I happen to think that their battery policy will turn out to be a big success. What I’d like them to do also is grease the wheels a little for pumped hydro.
C@tmomma @ #360 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:08 pm
Thanks. I’ll look for it. (Mortensen was always Strider, not Aragorn.)
Anyone interested in the Illawarra and in particular rail? 🙂
Simon² Katich® @ #270 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 4:39 pm
Agreed on both points.
No party can be trusted with an unchecked majority.
And the Greens did quite well at defeating their own agenda the last time they held the balance of power. And continue to do remarkably well at enabling the Coalition. I blame the leadership.
“There are a range of academics and organisations that clearly support and report that 100% renewables by the 2030’s is likely to be a fact of life whatever the Labor chooses to do. Due in part to the dollars and interest of Australian householders and businesses almost entirely despite the government recently.
Labors half baked 50% target could be exceeded by 2025 as is, doing absolutely nothing more than now.”
So there is actually no point for folk to change their vote from the liberal party at the next election. If it’s all inevitable, regardless of the governemnt, best vote out of greed and self interest, right? I’m guessing you are using that brain fart to justify coming home to the Liberal Party after your Greens gap year experience in Bohobostan just in time to start your merchant bank career.
C@tmomma @ #362 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
What Quoll doesn’t seem to or want to understand is that 50% is not an end point.
The study also points out the weakness in going to 100% is storage.
So, if we haven’t got that sorted 100% is irresponsible.
C@tmomma @ #363 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 9:44 pm
Quoll is one of a growing number of “magical thinkers” who believe 100% renewable is going to happen without us having to do anything. They won’t make any sacrifices because they have convinced themselves they don’t need to, and they won’t support any party or policy that insists otherwise.
They somehow believe Australia will become a “renewable energy superpower”, exporting our energy and expertise to the world … except that they don’t seem to have realized that we can’t even make solar panels economically in this country any more. Almost all our solar panels are now imported from China.
This is just yet another form of denial … and a particularly pernicious one 🙁
Prof Blakers has much to say on and for pumped hydro too CC
Far from 100% renewables being a “fact of life” by the 2030s regardless of what Labor does, as Tory Quoll claims, that article clearly articulates the policy challenge for an incoming Labor Government:
“Dr Matthew Stocks from ANU Research School of Engineering said the rapidly growing supply of renewable energy into the electricity network requires effective planning to ensure enough storage and transmission capacity is built to deliver reliable energy to homes and businesses.
“The remaining piece of the puzzle is more storage and stronger interstate interconnection, which is where governments should be focussing their attention,” said Dr Stocks.
“Pumped hydro storage – such as the proposed Snowy 2.0 – is off-the-shelf technology, while batteries are rapidly falling in price.”
“Our message is that the renewables train has developed great momentum, so policy makers need to get on board,” said Dr Stocks.”
The focus of Labor’s policy is exactly the areas nominated. The take out seems to be “get the policy right, and the targets will look after themselves”.
However I’m sure the Greens will do everything within their power to make a pigs breakfast in the Senate. Just like last time. Forget the little things, it’s the big things that matte, right? Like a Greens candidate succeeding Albo in Grayndler, Tanya in Sydney and picking up the rebadged Melbourne Ports.
“There are a range of academics and organisations that clearly support and report that 100% renewables by the 2030’s is likely to be a fact of life”…
For now you will just get this: ha, ha, ha…
In 12 years time you and the Greens will get this: HA, HA, HA….
100% renewables?… by 2030? Do you have any clue what that means?… How on earth are you going to get all the current aircrafts to fly on 100% renewable fuels in such a short period of time? Which renewables?… not to speak of all the other things that need energy to run. Selling porkies does not make you a Porkies Magnate… it just makes you the laughing stock of the market…. and of politics.
The ALP’s 50% is not going to be exceeded… in fact, it will take a lot of effort and hard work to achieve it. We can only hope that the Greens can be part of the solution, not contributors to failure, as they too often are.
Alpo – to be fair to our Tory Green, I’m pretty sure he’s only talking about the electricity sector. Although, who knows
Can’t ‘outline’ this one just now in The Australian – the system is a bit inconsistent
‘I was told to pay Sugar Baby’
Nationals MP Andrew Broad was allegedly given a 24-hour ultimatum by a Hong Kong woman to pay her to remain silent.
Alpo we are talking about fixed energy generation. Not transport fuels.
With compliments…
“Nationals MP Andrew Broad was allegedly given a 24-hour ultimatum by a Hong Kong woman to pay her to remain silent over her involvement in “sugar baby” arrangements with the disgraced former frontbencher.
The Australian has seen a WhatsApp message that Mr Broad said was sent to him by a woman who used the online name “Sophia Rose”, in which she threatened to go “public to the papers” after the two met at an up-market Hong Kong restaurant.
“I have all your seedy messages and will go public with more story if you don’t transfer the allowance of 8000 HKD ($1450) into my PayPal account … by the end of the day,” Ms Rose, also known as Amy, said in one message. “And believe me, I’m fully aware of how much more I could get if I went public to the papers with my story.”
Mr Broad said he did not succumb to Ms Rose’s alleged blackmail attempt.
“I never offered to pay her anything, never paid her anything and told her it was blackmail,” Mr Broad told The Australian on Wednesday night.
“My initial reaction when I first got the message was to panic and offer to pay her something but within half an hour I told her she was blackmailing me and then I blocked her.
“I met her for a meal, I paid for the meal and conducted myself in a gentlemanly manner and I left.
“I should not have been having dinner with a woman who was not my wife.”
http://outline.com/J63496
Rocket Rocket @ #375 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 6:39 pm
Oh no!
Poor little Sugar Daddy plays the victim card!!!! 😆
100% renewables by 2030s is not inevitable. The Coalition Government actively promotes coal and actively sets out to hobble renewable energy.
On the subject of transport fuels the biggest user of hydrocarbon fuels is the private motor car. By about mid 2020s the typical new car will be electric and then its only a matter of older vehicles expiring. Even most trucks will go electric.
There are a bunch of sustainable ways to produce hydrocarbon fuels for aviation. The airlines already have their own roadmaps for this.
My favourite is converting old landfill to syngas – a mixture of CO and H2 – from which you can derive any synthetic fuel and also plastics and asphalt and so on.
The Nationals are the gift that keeps on giving…
“Mr Broad said he reported the incident to the Australian Federal Police on November 8 and the AFP advised him that while Ms Rose’s messages constituted extortion, the matter was outside Australia’s jurisdiction.”
It is understood that the following day Mr Broad opened up about his dealings with Ms Rose to Nationals leader Michael McCormack, and said he was open to quitting the frontbench over it.
Scott Morrison has said he first heard of the incident when it was featured in New Idea magazine this month.
Sprocket she was definitely going for the budget end of the blackmail market 🙂
Cud Chewer @ #382 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 6:48 pm
I’m sure No Ideal would have paid a bit more. 🙂
To be frank, Andrew, I just don’t have a clue what “our Tory Green” is talking about and I don’t think he does either. Renewables account for a current 19% of electricity generation that goes to the national grid in Australia… So, even if we just focus on such electricity generation, a jump to 100% in 12 (or even 21) years time will require an increase of 6.75% per year, every single year until 2030 (or 3.85% per year, every single year until 2039).
Where on earth is the detailed Greens plan to achieve that?
Alpo we are already on that trajectory. The only missing element is storage.
When I was in Karratha a few years ago there was an organisation who were growing algae and processing it into aviation fuel and diesel.
As it turned out, the process was technically feasible but not economically feasible. They now turn the algae into natural medicine.
In the current climate, literally and politically, the Libs could choke on their own coal nugget and few would care, or be that surprised, I’d say. Most Australians want action on CO2/climate change and swift transition to renewable energy as much as possible. They should vote for whoever seems most likely to see it done.
From previous, for those who don’t get it, we will install the equivalent of ~30% of daily peak demand as renewables in Australia in the two years 2018-2019, before any other projects down the line. With storage everything will change rapidly
@ Alpo
By utility scale power plant standards 6.75% is not that big an effort.
In WA Western Power (SWIS network operator) has just provided grid connection approval for just short of 1,000 MW of large scale wind and solar which will be operational by 2020.
grimace
Last year I met some British expert who worked for some company that I think were growing algae in desert lakes (?artificial lakes – can’t remember) that were genetically altered to make omega 3 fatty acids. But I think since I spoke to him most of that omega 3 stuff has been debunked – but maybe that was the same projects.
I am pretty sure this was him – Professor Jack Winkler
https://www.fabresearch.org/viewItem.php?id=7431
And this mentions the biodiesel and algae, but it was from 2012 maybe before anything had actually been done.
http://www.themotherandchildfoundation.org/news/future-omega3-nutritional-sustainability/
Quoll @ #387 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 7:10 pm
But until we have the storage sorted there will be some coal or gas in the system and we won’t reach 100%. 🙂
Barney we could sort out the storage issue in 5 years. Its not like we have to invent something new.
It’s hardly a big league blackmail effort: “$1,450 by tomorrow, or else…”
She didn’t get paid by New Idea (reportedly) and in any case she ruined her chances of benefiting from the Sugar Daddy scenario by blurting out the story. End of blackmail opportunity.
Something in Broad’s account doesn’t quite add up.
Joined family, friends and a few former colleagues over the last week and unusually politics came up often.
Some supporters of the Liberals feel their party has been infiltrated by a super conservative religious group. While the party is in power, they will die to protect and improve the sometimes extreme position of their supporters. Those ideals are more important than those of the Liberal party. The general conclusion is that a long period in opposition is going to be needed to clean out these intruders.
A few others don’t worry about day to day events and believe the Govt is expected to run the country well. There have been more than 10 reasons to remove them but the L/NP vote was going after the first failure and the decision will not be changed. The performance of others in parliament is irrelevant, the Goverment is under scrutiny.
The overall feeling about Scummo is not yet showing up in polls. Don’t be surprised if his ratings and those of the Government continue to fall.
Over the last half a dozen elections, I would think these people would have voted L/NP more often than Labor but Bill Shorten, love him or loath him, is accepted as the next PM.
Well, well… seems to bear out Mr Ed’s post just above.
BB : The ‘more than 10 things’ did not include tax, pensions and the like.
From what I could gather, it was things such as climate change, penalty rates, SSM, renewables, Malcolm, kids in detention, Govt debt, none of which can be fixed by the present Govt. Any of these could have a major impact on you, the kids, grandkids or the nice family next door.
If Scummo can’t face a defeat in the House, he can’t reconvene parliament to do anything. I’m sure he can read out the budget but the crossbench is wanting to get some action on other things.
Perhaps his best bet is to leak budget details and go to an election now. Any repeat of the recent parliamentary efforts will do more harm than good.
Tick tock tick tock. Sometimes the waiting for the inevitable to happen can be as painful as the actual event.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sydney-evacuation-she-ll-be-right-building-culture-a-worry-say-experts
A footing issue?
Very interesting..
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/antiabbott-army-assembling-in-warringah/news-story/f11c460bbf4aa3cfe9245763b02688d8
Worth it for the comments… a clear view into the minds of Abbott supporters.
“Nationals MP Andrew Broad was allegedly given a 24-hour ultimatum by a Hong Kong woman to pay her to remain silent.”
Surely that is a criminal offence even the AFP could find between their electioneering for the LNP?
WWP,
The woman, Ms Rose, is not in Australia, so this would be difficult as it requires extradition.
But I am quite certain Andrew Broad will not want her here in court exposing his seemy actions.