Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

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  2. Pretty sure the Law Of the Seas Convention sets out conservation obligations and requirements to cooperate wrt commercial fishing of migratory species within EEZ (not sovereign waters tho). I am guessing that it was included in LOSC to protect things like tuna but would include whales too.

  7. If you are interested in fishing activity I can recommend Global Fishing Watch. The web site has links to blogs (https://globalfishingwatch.org/blog/) and a very nice map (https://globalfishingwatch.org/map).

    The map is zoomable, showing marine parks, economic zones, and most importantly fishing activity. You can filter the activity to narrow your interest. This image shows the activity in the West Pacific during the past month. It represents 8,610,208 vessels.

  10. Peter Dutton and George Christensen gone in Queensland, plus another Coalition woman, Michelle Landry, if Newspoll numbers hold until the election.

    Just the first two would be enough for me.

  11. Greensborough Growler, thanks for the link. Channel nine says the government will be in a worse position than Labor after the 2013 election, clearly confusing “Government” with “Coalition”.

  13. GG
    Thanks for the christmas polling cheer. A 24 seat loss projected for ScumMo’s merry men, even on Channel Nine 🙂

    The honest coverage of Liberal bad news is interesting too. Are Channel Nine management adjusting to political reality and positioning to be friendlier to a likely Shorten government?

  15. Sheesh. Forecast is 39°C tomorrow. Seriously hot for these parts of the Hills. It will break the previous record of 37 set way back in January 2018.

  16. Labor are clearly going to dominate the HoR numbers – that’s a given.

    We need voters to keep them honest though in the senate by ensuring the Greens and sensible Indy’s like Tim Storer are given the balance of power.

    Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.

  21. Aqualung @12:59 “What tortured logic do Japan use to claim the Southern Ocean as a special economic zone?”

    Japan doesn’t claim any part of the Southern Ocean as their economic zone. They do not recognise Australia’s claims and insist that the area is international waters which they or anyone else are free to exploit.

  22. Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.

    After last time I am not convinced the Greens can be trusted with that or any other responsibility.

  25. “We need voters to keep them honest though in the senate by ensuring the Greens and sensible Indy’s like Tim Storer are given the balance of power.”

    For the Senate for me it will be 1 Labor, last Liberal-National, next to last Liberal fellow travellers like One Nation, LDP and other RWNJs. Before them, parties I’ve never heard of, probably front groups to harvest votes for the Right. Probably Greens second but I’ll have to think about it.

  26. “Labor are clearly going to dominate the HoR numbers – that’s a given.

    We need voters to keep them honest though in the senate by ensuring the Greens and sensible Indy’s like Tim Storer are given the balance of power.

    Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.”

    While I’d be delighted with the return of Tim Storer, the Greens have proven themselves to be unreliable and untruthworthy partners, given their MO of seeking to embarrass Labor at every turn: no piece of Labor legislation will be good enough, the Greens will demand more, especially if their demands threaten the consensus in the middle. They will play the wedge every time.

    I fear for the legislative success of a Shorten Labor Government if it has to rely upon the Greens alone. Hopefully there will be enough centrists like Storer returned to provide an alternative legislative pathway.

  28. It’s been a long time since I’ve had more than a light beer or two at Christmas. It involves a long drive and often helping relatives with transport.

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #276 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:44 pm

    “Labor are clearly going to dominate the HoR numbers – that’s a given.

    We need voters to keep them honest though in the senate by ensuring the Greens and sensible Indy’s like Tim Storer are given the balance of power.

    Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.”

    While I’d be delighted with the return of Tim Storer, the Greens have proven themselves to be unreliable and untruthworthy partners, given their MO of seeking to embarrass Labor at every turn: no piece of Labor legislation will be good enough, the Greens will demand more, especially if their demands threaten the consensus in the middle. They will play the wedge every time.

    I fear for the legislative success of a Shorten Labor Government if it has to rely upon the Greens alone. Hopefully there will be enough centrists like Storer returned to provide an alternative legislative pathway.

    Short memory. The Greens helped deliver substantial and sensible policy from 2010-2013, until the Labor rats tore the Govt down allowing Abbott to politically poison this country.

  31. I think we can argue the merits of contributions here without implying that posters are drunk or, in instances in the past, on drugs or suffering mental health problems.

  32. Steve777 the article made it sound like Japan were claiming anywhere they intended whaling was part of the economic zone hence my comment. Probably poor phraseology.
    A shame the attempt to make it a sanctuary never got up all those years ago.

  33. Sexy Rexy – I see that “upping my game when trolling on Bludger” is not on your New Years resolution list.

    The fact is that the public hated, absolutely hated, the Gillard-Green-Indi Government. Which is a shame, but a historical fact. Here’s a quick recap of Labor’s polling numbers under your cornucopia of a ‘stable governemnt’. The idea that it was “labor rats” that tore down the governemnt is laughable. Regrettably, Gillard would have not won more than 35 seats if she was allowed to remain o. the usurper’s throne.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-03/newspoll-gives-coalition-massive-lead/4730902

  35. Simon² Katich® @ #272 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.

    After last time I am not convinced the Greens can be trusted with that or any other responsibility.

    Seems evidence provided here on PB is that the Lab-Greens-Indy government of Gillard was the most productive govt in some 40 years, perhaps ever since Australia existed, by that measure. With further evidence that this was also the period of most effective reduction of carbon emissions ever in contemporary Australia.
    Would any of that been that case if Lab didn’t have to care about dealing with others as well?
    The only party that has a plan to get to a 100% renewable economy and have policy on transformation in some industries is the Greens. Both Lab and Lib are way behind even what we will already likely see by 2030 anyway, >75%, despite the uselessness of government over recent times.

  36. Australia’s claim to the Antarctic areas of our EEC is merely to add to our claim of the Australian Antarctic Territory which in itself is neither accepted or rejected by the rest of the world. The Antarctic Treaty put all the claims on hold – this probably works in Australia’s interest… otherwise China or Russia or America would be mine down there.

    Any attempt to enforce our laws relating to whaling in that region would cause bigger issues and is not a can of worms that Australia would want to open.

  37. Quoll @ #285 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:57 pm

    Simon² Katich® @ #272 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    Labor just can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses.

    After last time I am not convinced the Greens can be trusted with that or any other responsibility.

    Seems evidence provided here on PB is that the Lab-Greens-Indy government of Gillard was the most productive govt in some 40 years, perhaps ever since Australia existed, by that measure. With further evidence that this was also the period of most effective reduction of carbon emissions ever in contemporary Australia.
    Would any of that been that case if Lab didn’t have to care about dealing with others as well?
    The only party that has a plan to get to a 100% renewable economy and have policy on transformation in some industries is the Greens. Both Lab and Lib are way behind even what we will already likely see by 2030 anyway, >75%, despite the uselessness of government over recent times.

    Labor is controlled by a handfull of super unions, who have some cosy relationships with big businesses.

    It would be unhealthy to allow these super unions to control our parliament without a proper check and balance in the senate.

  40. This second new ball has swung whereas the first did not. Not sure why. Aussies have had the luck today. All bad! Starc, Hazelwood and Lyon looked a little flat today. So, the victory in Perth may have exhausted them emotionally if not physically.

    Winning the toss seems the difference between these sides. Can’t see the Aussies getting another 18 wickets to win this match. So, hopefully they can hang on for a draw and move to Sydney.

    India

  43. The Greens will be extremely fortunate to maintain their status quo in the next election.
    The Greens should be surging ahead in the next federal election.
    We will have had five years of governmen diametrically opposed to Greens policies.
    There is a 100% clear contrast between the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government and what the Greens offer.
    The past five years have been atrocious in terms of inflicting pain on the electorate – including household debt and stagnating real wages.
    Shouldn’t the Greens be making major gains in the next Federal election?
    Shouldn’t there be a massive protest vote for the Greens?
    Yet the Greens will be extremely lucky to hold what they have.
    The reasons lie not in Morrison and the Coalition, but deep in the Greens themselves:
    1. Serious interpersonal and policy contumely in Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales.
    2. Systemic splits between the Reds and the Environmentalists.
    3. Unresolved issues with sex scandals.
    4. Increasingly exposed manky extremist policies.
    5. Too many Greens second raters among those already elected, exposing the lack of quality.
    6. Disintegration of the Left protest vote: animal rights, etc, etc, etc.
    7. Sloppy governance as far as the eye can see.
    8. A huge lack of runs on the board for 30 years.
    9. Di Natale exposed as a third rate leader: Can’t inspire. Can’t resolve issues. Can’t lead.

  45. Channel 9 news just said Japan was only going to whale in its own waters. That’s not what the original article said? ? ?
    A quick check of the Guardian says they are not going to whale in the Southern Ocean.
    Are there any whales left in their own waters?

  46. ‘Quoll says:
    Wednesday, December 26, 2018 at 6:08 pm

    The battle for the Wet Tropics — how Queensland’s Daintree rainforest was saved
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-26/wet-tropics-world-heritage-listing-30-years-on/10634460‘

    If there is any single Australian responsible for the creation of the Wet Tropic World Heritage Area, it is Richardson. If there is any single Party responsible for that protection, it is the Labor Party.

    All this happened before the Reds in the Greens locked up the environmentalist votes and neutered it.

  48. Lol. The Greens are coming apart at the seams and their misleading megaphones on PB deign to tell a putative Labor federal government how to behave!

    Typical grubs, they just rot the fruit.

  50. I took some of my “valuable time” this evening to have a look at the TV news – Prime and Nine.

    The Bancroft Confession.

    More or less the same as shown on the ABC website.

    What happened to the Ned Kelly spirit ❓ (I’m not at all sure what that means either).
    What happened to “if you can’t do the time – don’t do the crime ❓ ”
    I wonder who advised him to do a full confession on behalf of the evil puppet master ❓

    Still we know who to blame in future instead of Bill Shorten –

    Ta da

    David Warner.

    On the other hand – what do I know ❓ Answer —–Not much.

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