Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. Watched an ABC Xmas thing last night that had interviews with pollies and people about what xmas means to them. Anne Aly popped up few times. This is a seriously electable politician. 🙂

    One of her comments on xmas was along the lines of as a child, finding xmas presents on the day and running in to tell her mum and dad that Santa had even come for THEM, and they are Muslim!!! 🙂

    Unlike the Coalition morons and whatever idiots they have running their advertising and social media…Aly is a person who just “gets it” about inclusion.

  2. “church service in the Netherlands, aimed at stopping an Armenian family from being deported, has been going around the clock since October 26. Under Dutch law, police officers are not permitted to enter a church while a religious service is taking place.”

    World class fillibuster!! 🙂

  3. “Julie jumped…are they picking her up?”

    Jump on a Shark?? 🙂 Cruelty to Sharks i reckon……..

    As a profile building exercise wont hurt her any. Good on her.

    However, its a sad thing for politics when you realize that Julie Bishop is obviously smarter and more canny than the rest of the Libs put together. 🙁

  4. The Opal building news has gone around the world – this is a major issue for the Sydney apartment market – and by extension all the other apartment markets as most overseas buyers are not aware (like most Australian) of the differences in jurisdiction and the role of states v commonwealth.

    Most buildings are over engineered and therefore if one thing has gone wrong there should not have been an issue. This however looks there has been multiple failures. The rest of building has been given the all clear but for how long? If there is an architectural design fault then the rest of building must be in question. Equally if the wrong materials have been used, it is equally as bad.

    Then the question becomes how many of the other hundreds of apartment built and being built have also got issues. I for one would not be buying one with such doubts. So expect prices to take a major hit.

    PS. Icon Construction very quickly deleted the Opal Buildings page from their website on Xmas eve (it was giving a 404 error from a link on the main page).

  5. With respect to Marsh, he was selected by the selectors, and the haters here can hate all they want, particularly with Langer, and man of great integrity and ability, I trust them a lot more than a couple of crazy 1 eyed east coast clowns. Hopefully Langer can continue the cleanout, hopefully Warner never plays for Australia at any level ever again.

  6. TL
    Yes I have seen similar trends in the industry here in SA and when I work interstate. Apart from the deregulation of building and planning (pure folly) I blame two other factors for problems with lack of skills.

    The first is the reduction in skill training. The days of the Keating training rules are long gone. These days what “training” does occur is usually compliance training in the latest legal obligation or accounting system. But actual engineering skills? Not much. It was once supposed to be 2% of payroll. Even the SA public service does not get close to that.

    The second is the roller coaster ride ngineering project funding has gone through. The GFC saw a record high, attracting people into the industry, some skilled, some not. Then the huge drop at the end of the mining boom saw many people leave, including a lot of skilled people taking early retirement. We need a more consistent base in project funding, not necessarily higher, to support a more stable, skilled workforce.

  7. Where does real estate sit under Australian Consumer law :

    “If a product or service you buy fails to meet a consumer guarantee, you have the right to ask for a repair, replacement or refund under the Australian Consumer Law. The remedy you’re entitled to will depend on whether the issue is major or minor. ”

    This would be bankruptcy material if applicable I would expect.

  8. WeWantPaul @ #202 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    With respect to Marsh, he was selected by the selectors, and the haters here can hate all they want, particularly with Langer, and man of great integrity and ability, I trust them a lot more than a couple of crazy 1 eyed east coast clowns. Hopefully Langer can continue the cleanout, hopefully Warner never plays for Australia at any level ever again.

    You are pathetic!

    Everything said has been about selection and how his record doesn’t support his position in the side.

    Where is the hate in that?

    You’re yet to post anything that contradicts this assertion.

  9. Finally, I have found a job for Joe Hockey that uses all his many talents and allows him to unleash Hockeynomics in its purist form. Join the US’s Defense Finance and Accounting Services Joe.

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – The United States Army’s finances are so jumbled it had to make trillions of dollars of improper accounting adjustments to create an illusion that its books are balanced.

    ………employees of the Defense Finance and Accounting Services (DFAS), which handles a wide range of Defense Department accounting services, referred sardonically to preparation of the Army’s year-end statements as “the grand plug,” Armstrong said. “Plug” is accounting jargon for inserting made-up numbers…………. ….At first glance adjustments totaling trillions may seem impossible. The amounts dwarf the Defense Department’s entire budget. Making changes to one account also require making changes to multiple levels of sub-accounts, however. That created a domino effect where, essentially, falsifications kept falling down the line. In many instances this daisy-chain was repeated multiple times for the same accounting item.

    ………..he rather than solving the disparity, DFAS personnel inserted a false “correction” to make the numbers match.

    DFAS also could not make accurate year-end Army financial statements because more than 16,000 financial data files had vanished from its computer system

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-audit-army/u-s-army-fudged-its-accounts-by-trillions-of-dollars-auditor-finds-idUSKCN10U1IG

  10. “I can’t tell you when the government’s going to be open. I can tell you it’s not going to be open until we have a wall or fence, whatever they’d like to call it,” Mr Trump said, referring to Democrats who staunchly oppose walling off the Mexican border.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/12/26/trunmp-says-shutdown-ends-when-his-wall-is-funded/

    In which case Trump has openly admitted that he has taken government workers hostage. The Democrats can now surrender to his demands to save the lives of those workers and their families and in doing so put themselves firmly on their side. The Trump Wall would be tainted from the start.

  11. RR

    In a few days there may well be some bowlers who were selected for this test and wished they hadn’t been and a couple who are glad they missed out.
    Though I am not even sure there is anybody in the squad as a fifth bowler option other than M Marsh.
    At various tomes last week the Perth stadium curator was copping some stick.
    What are they saying about the MCG man responsible for a wicket described as this in the Guardian
    “But this pitch… it looks hideous, I’ll tell you that. The one last year where Alistair Cook made his double hundred was just a brown featureless slab of rolled mud. This time they’ve tried to leave grass on it, so there’s rolled mud with weird patches of green mange. It looks like a twenty-yard slab of solidified cat sick. It looks lumpy and blotchy and confused”

  12. One way to keep out the riff-raff (who nevertheless subsidise these establishments via their taxes):

    Fees at some of Sydney’s most expensive private schools will exceed $38,000 a year for the first time, as parents face hikes of up to 4.3 per cent for the 2019 school year.

    Parents of year 12 students at SCEGGS Darlinghurst will have to pay $38,214 in tuition next year, after the girls’ school in Sydney’s east announced a fee rise of 2.5 per cent, up from $37,282 for 2018.

    Over the past six years, fees at the top private schools have gone up by more than 25 per cent, marking a dramatic increase for parents whose child entered year seven in 2013.

    David Zyngier, a senior lecturer in education at Monash University, said fees have gone up at a much faster rate than the cost of living, with the consumer price index rising 1.9 per cent over the 12 months to September 2018.

    https://www.smh.com.au/education/sydney-private-school-fees-hit-38-000-for-the-first-time-20181221-p50nqw.html

  13. TLurker

    Just gut feel on my part. I wonder about the foundations of the Opal Tower.

    The whole area sits on mush.

    Usually the people who do foundations are very conservative, but if the fault is under the building that has real consequences…

  14. Eric AlperVerified account@ThatEricAlper
    4h4 hours ago
    In 1956 Elvis Presley got a polio vaccination on national TV. That one event was partly responsible for raising immunization levels in the United States from 0.6% to 80% in just 6 months.

    :large

  15. I second Barney’s comment on M Marsh.

    I am an east coast tragic – nothing one-eyed about it – I don’t care what state a player comes from … all I care about is form.

    I do agree with WWP on Warner though — his attitude/sportsmanship has always appeared wanting

  16. Up to six people have been rescued after their boat caught fire on its way to Rottnest Island, off the coast of Perth, on Boxing Day morning.

    Water Police and Volunteer Marine Rescue were called earlier in the day, north of the ‘Windmills’ surf break.

    Police said it was unclear whether the occupants had jumped into the water to escape the flames, but said all the occupants were now safe.

    It is unclear how much damage the fire caused, but vision shows the 15-metre boat fully engulfed in flames.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-26/boat-catches-fire-in-water-off-rottnest-island-perth/10668746

    The images look pretty shocking.

  17. Marsh was apparently booed by a section of the crowd. I don’t think he should be in he Test squad, but it isn’t his fault he was selected. What is he supposed to do, decline the call up?

  18. Telstra customers were left irate after a National Broadband Network-related outage caused some Australians to be without internet services late on Christmas Eve and stretching into Christmas Day.

    A disruption for some NBN-connected households in Victoria and Tasmania on Monday and Tuesday came at “the worst time of the year” for telecommunications companies and their customers, with network staff at Telstra working through the night on Christmas Eve to get services back up and running.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/all-i-want-for-xmas-is-a-reliable-connection-telco-customers-irate-20181226-p50o9g.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter

  19. “One way to keep out the riff-raff (who nevertheless subsidise these establishments via their taxes)”

    Private schools should be what they are in comparable countries, a niche product for the wealthy and the very religious, with about 5% reach, not 35%.

  20. The australian cricket selection process is right up there with the AFL tribunal in being nearly incomprehensible.

    There have been good, bad, indifferent, inspired, brave, foolish and downright stupid selections for as long as I have watched the game.

    Is it really worth the angst?

  21. lynlinking

    @lynlinking
    8h8 hours ago
    More
    The Lodge we had to have: Canberra’s famous, empty home
    The Canberra home may regain its former status after next election. It is understood Bill Shorten would live in The Lodge if Labor wins, & that he respects the tradition & stature of the building

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-lodge-we-had-to-have-canberra-s-famous-empty-home-20181130-p50jbs.html

    ScoMo – no respect for tradition. Malcolm – too rich to care.
    But Howard started it.

  22. She always manages to score gigs to all the rich people play pursuits: horse racing and now sailing.

    Former foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop has successfully landed her exit from Wild Oats X as the yacht passed Bondi Beach on its journey south in the Sydney to Hobart.

    With her bright yellow lifejacket inflated, Ms Bishop leapt backwards off the vessel at 1.37pm, and was in the water for less than a minute before she was picked up by a waiting boat.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/sailing/hopefully-i-avoid-the-sharks-julie-bishop-nervous-about-dip-far-off-bondi-beach-20181226-p50o8o.html

  23. Stephen Koukoulas

    Global stocks getting smoked, hammered, smashed, crashed… Commodity prices in free-fall, testing levels seems at low point of global crisis a decade ago
    … back to the cricket

  24. I get the feeling PvO is going to be like this all the way up to the election, and in the aftermaths.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    5h5 hours ago
    So removing Malcolm Turnbull worked a treat then…. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/regions-fail-to-embrace-morrison-as-primary-vote-stalls/news-story/c47fe4b491aa5c9df5bc24916db21d64 … Slow clap for the 35 Liberal MPs who caused this mess…. #auspol

  25. Re the Opal building. Why was a block of units deemed a state significant development?
    I realise Auburn council was…dysfunctional but an administrator could have been appointed.

  26. I had a feeling this would happen when I read they were considering it a few days ago.

    Japan has announced it will withdraw from the International Whaling Commission and will restart commercial whaling in July.

    Tokyo also announced it will end its so-called “scientific” whaling in the Southern Ocean.

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said on Wednesday that Japan’s commercial whaling would be limited to its territorial and economic waters.

    The decision was made at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday after the government decided it would be difficult to resume commercial whaling while a member of the IWC.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/japan-to-start-commercial-whaling-in-july-20181226-p50oa8.html

    Statement from Marise Payne to come apparently.

  27. According to Wikipedia, Japan has a huge Exclusive Economic Zone surrounding it and “Japan has disputes over its EEZ boundaries with all its Asian neighbors (Russia, Republic of Korea, China and Taiwan)”.

    Perhaps doing whaling there is intended to demonstrate some sort of power over the region, much like China is doing in the South China Sea.

    This Wikipedia map is not very clear but shows the vast area of ocean claimed by Japan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone_of_Japan

  28. Just heard JulieB jumped off a boat in Sydney/Hobart race to draw attention to the amount of plastic in the oceans.

    How very apt (remainder of comment held back out of politeness!).

  29. Is it true that the NSW Treasurer has hit our at Labor for pointing out that the LNP government has paved the way for dodgy building inspections?

  30. Agreed Confessions. Apparently their fleet sailed for the Southern Ocean in November.
    I know, I know but didn’t Abbott ‘promise’ to monitor the Japanese?
    Non core promise I suppose. Whatever their methods and motivation at least Sea Shephard were a thorn in their side until technology won.

  31. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, December 26, 2018 at 4:16 pm
    Just heard JulieB jumped off a boat in Sydney/Hobart race to draw attention to the amount of plastic in the oceans.

    She wasn’t picked up by a Chinese submarine like Harold Holt? {smily emoji}

  32. Aussies toiling away on a very true wicket. Wicket has certainly sped up during the day. Aussie quicks are bowling with some heat. It’s a game of attrition until the wicket starts to deteriorate.

    The Indian tail is pretty long. So, a couple of breakthroughs will get the Aussies back in the game.

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