Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

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  2. Lizzie, my thoughts exactly. I don’t need that much thrill in my life anymore. (You know the thrill of being in a wicker basket high in the air with a gas tank ablaze a few feet away and gravity doing its best to pull me out of the air to connect with the earth with a thud).

  4. I confess I put up that piece of drywall in the Opal Tower. No wonder it’s falling down. In fact I’m amazed it lasted 4 months.

    #DIYersonPB

  7. There appears to be another up-tick in talk of minor parties, for instance:

    Carnage as voters turn to minors, JARED OWENS

    one of the more fascinating stories of 2019 will be the extent to which political independents continue to disrupt the status quo, Katharine Murphy

    I wonder if the authors of these opinions are unable to admit (or permitted to say) that it is the L-NP that are failing, and that voters are actually leaving the L-NP “broad church” and going to the ALP and the minors.

  8. frednk @ #118 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    TallebudgeraLurker

    Unrelated to this building;
    What do you believe is the solution for the certification of imported material?
    What do you believe is the solution to there being no requirement for engineer certification?

    Frednk,

    1st Question
    Imported items or materials/components are a worry. There are two levels to this issue:
    1. Items (e.g. low carbon (black) steel sections, plate and reinforcing bar, specialty steels (stainless, etc) sections and plate, structure cladding, electrical cables, and the list rolls on) that are manufactured in other countries purportedly to Australian Standards/International Standards that are not what they say or are at the low end of the specified performance/constituent range for the item/material. Some sources are less problematic than others.
    2. Components that are manufactured/fabricated off-shore from materials/items manufactured off shore. I have seen plenty of issues with components that were detail designed and then made in a factory somewhere in Asia where extensive rework was required once the components arrived on site in Australia.
    Increased independent (e.g. NATA laboratory) testing undertaken by the importer with random Government auditing under Item 1 in Australia may be the answer but cost is often an inhibiting factor. IMO it would only be implemented by progressive federal /State governments.
    Under Item 2, more factory inspections off-shore by other than the time expeditor may be the only safeguard beyond rework in Australia.

    2nd Question
    The Queensland system of Registered Professional Engineers needs to be rolled out nationally as is currently being considered (as I understand). However, more RPEQ Board auditing scrutiny needs to be applies to the Qld certification process, particularly at the bottom (low $$) end of the process to ensure RPEQ signature shopping is not occurring.

  9. Dominic Perrotet is the scumbag that orchestrated, very poorly, a political hit job on a politician in a neighbouring seat which was safer than the one he is in. In the end he was given a less safe seat to run in closer to his home as he had used as an artifice for his political move that he has a large number of young children and he was finding it difficult to combine his job as Treasurer with servicing his electorate and getting to be with his young family.

    Boo hoo was the general response from the electorate, who have to travel hours a day to work and not in a chauffeur_driven government car.

    You can probably guess, with the large, young family, that he is also a member of the NSW Liberal Catholic mafia, whose patron saint is Tony Abbott. 🙂

  10. re. Newspoll today… this is just to lull Bill Shorten into a false sense of security. The Liberals are sure to have private polling that shows a landslide victory to ScoMo. Voters are clearly just parking their votes with Labor. The PPM figures prove that. All will be revealed in due course, I’m sure. Probably at the next Libspill.

    Stay tuned.

  15. Libs have no concept of – anything.

    John Johnsonson
    @JohnJohnsonson

    The Liberals have deleted this meme after their social media accounts got flooded with abuse. Make sure to spread it FAR AND WIDE

  16. The sun and heat should liven up the pitch later (tomorrow perhaps). The amount of grass combined with the heavy roller has probably deadened it a bit … that’ll wear off next session.

    Suspect that is one reason we have Lyon on so early – eat up time until the sun does its thing.

  17. Rossmcg @ #119 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 9:20 am

    Talkebudgera

    You might have missed it but almost within minutes of the story breaking someone here described it as a media beat up
    Not sure how media was responsible for police and emergency services ordering evacuations. But After Bill shorten they are a convenient scapegoat.
    I may be different but if a firey comes to the door and suggests I leave I won’t be asking if it is a real problem or something he read about on smh online.
    I commented earlier that it will be a lawyers feast. We can make jokes about that but there will be many many everyday people who will be affected.
    Call me a cynic but I would guess some will be waiting a long time for redress.
    Wouldn’t want to be trying to sell an apartment in this building today.

    Rossmcg,
    I agree, it is a serious issue. It needs a serious investigation – that will take time – it always does. However, I don’t know enough facts as to whether it is:
    (1) a localised issue at that one place in the building; or
    (2) a systemic detailing issue with the design of the building; or
    (3) the wrong class of concrete in that section of the work; or
    (4) some missing shear or other reinforcement; or
    (5) any of the other possible twenty things I could think off to consider.
    I don’t think high rise design and construction in Australia warrants a Royal Commission as did the Westgate Bridge when part of it fell down during construction in 1970 resulting in many fatalities, but it does warrant a thorough investigation and depending on the cause, it should start focused and expand as much as is required.
    IMO, the police/firemen requesting immediate evacuation would have had no focus on the media frenzy; they would have reacted to immediate concerns over building stability once someone tore down the plasterboard to look behind it. People’s lives always come first – better safe than sorry/dead.
    The whole issue of fault will take years to resolve. I have no idea how the evacuated residents were managed after the initial evacuation.

  18. lizzie @ #163 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Libs have no concept of – anything.

    John Johnsonson
    @JohnJohnsonson

    The Liberals have deleted this meme after their social media accounts got flooded with abuse. Make sure to spread it FAR AND WIDE

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I saw this yesterday but only noticed the words “Queensland Labor” when I looked at your post. Perhaps there are no Liberals left in Queensland. The Nationals merely use them as cover by calling themselves LNP.

  19. Of course “Non denominational seasonal festivities” is what the great majority of Australians are having, not just those who have no belief or just a nominal attachment to Christianity, but those who follow other faiths. We still say “Merry Christmas”. My Muslim and Hindu work colleagues were as keen as everyone else to have time off over Christmas, to spend time with family, have a break from the workplace, go on vacation, enjoy the “non demoninational festivities” like the beach and cricket.

    So the response to the “Liberals”: what’s wrong with that?

    “Liberals” divide. It’s what they do. They make Australia smaller and meaner.

  20. jenauthor @ #164 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 11:24 am

    The sun and heat should liven up the pitch later (tomorrow perhaps). The amount of grass combined with the heavy roller has probably deadened it a bit … that’ll wear off next session.

    Suspect that is one reason we have Lyon on so early – eat up time until the sun does its thing.

    Pretty good analysis. Cummins has sconned one of the openers and hit the other on the body. Both balls came off a good length and were too quick. The bowlers will need extra grunt and bowl on a good length to extract anything from this track. As you say, it will quicken up as it dries out.

  22. TallebudgeraLurker, frednk

    I certainly think there are major changes needed to the planning system and building certification. Here in Addelaide there was an embarrassing failure of paving materials in an Adelaide CBD road project when the imported (Chinese) stone was found to fail tests. Likewise a similar problem with (again Chinese) reo bar in this NZ bridge case:
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/80635517/chinese-steel-fails-strength-test

    At least major government projects will have a specification and some testing audits, unless of course the department no longer has any expertise in the relevant field (witness the North Terrace tram project). But in domestic building none of that is guaranteed, plus the risk of poor workmanship.

    So IMO we do need national regulations on registered engineers (similar to Qld RPEQ system), testing of imported building materials, and a major upgrade of TAFE funding, skills training, and trade skill recognition between states. I agree an inquiry is probably beside the point on those obvious issues. Where I think an inquiry is needed is into our planning system (infrastructure and private developments). There are too many stories of conflicts of interest, and too few prosecutions. Liberals are far worse at this than Labor, but Woolongong proves both sides do it.

    Why do we need to have different definitions of who is competent to do work in every state? If you want to make it easier for people to move state to places where there are cheaper houses and/or more jobs, start there.

  29. I do wonder why so much LNP promotional material uses that scowling ScoMo face featuring all those teeth, more like a gangster’s nasty smile than a greeting. It’s such a turn-off. Phoney. The eyes betray the emptiness.

  31. Late riser@11:04am
    Murphyroo is a small ‘l’ of liberal party. Although she claims to be a dispassionate observer her actions and writings speak loader than her talk. 2 examples
    1. Uncritical support to MT even now
    2. Refusing to ask Joyce critical questions about his infidelity before New England by-elecfion even though she knew about it.

  32. More to the point Ven – Murph knew enough about the Joyce saga to realise it wasn’t just a case of private picadillos: his paramour was being shifted between offices, including to the ultimate, made up, higher paying job she landed in the Whip’s office …

  35. So M Marsh got his full 5 over quota before lunch, thereby taking the pressure off the Indian batsman every second over after Cummins got the breakthrough. Amazeballs.

    Paine obviously had been schooled by Langer that the fast bowlers were to bowl from one end only and lacked the flexibility of independent thought to throw Starc back into the attack from his less favoured end to put the pressure on after the wicket was taken. Mitchell Marsh’s strike rate is appallingly low and and although he was pretty tight he was also completely non threatening. Seriously bad captaincy.

  37. ABC saying expected spend on Boxing Day shopping is $2.5 billion … that’s $105 for every man woman & child.. lucky if it’s 1/4 of that in reality.

  38. BB

    all those teeth, more like a gangster’s nasty smile than a greeting

    I’ve tried not to pass judgement on the smile (rictus), because he can’t help what he was born with, but the way his mouth turns down accentuates it. It’s so unattractive and unforgiving.

  39. “ABC saying expected spend on Boxing Day shopping is $2.5 billion … that’s $105 for every man woman & child.. lucky if it’s 1/4 of that in reality.”

    Someone’s spending my share. I’ll be avoiding shops for the time being except for food and groceries.

  40. AE@12:32pm
    Good news for Australia that Marsh finished his quota before lunch. Is it bad news for India that he finished his quota before lunch? 🙂

  46. Socrates (AnonBlock) @ Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 10:45 am, Comment #170

    I agree with you on most issues. I have been lurking on here all year due to a variety of issues. State Government departments have lost their expertise, so have many local authorities. Not enough training of professional in those two levels of government. Many large and medium consultancies are all ‘smoke and mirrors’. IMO, we need to get back to the fundamentals in many areas of the built environment.
    And don’t get me stated on domestic engineering and construction, the most under regulated segment in the built environment.

  47. The Builders Collective of Australia’s national president Phillip Dwyer said the exact nature of the problem was still being worked out.

    “We haven’t got anything specific at this stage. There’s a lot of scuttlebutt at the moment and we are just not quite sure of what the exact problem is but most definitely there are footing issues and so on,” he said.

    “The actual regulation and compliance of the industry is nowhere near strong enough and that is the core issue of why we exist and why we are concerned. It is too early to say what the issues are with the Sydney high-rise but most certainly we are not terribly surprised that something like this could happen.”

    Mr Dwyer said a ‘she’ll be right’ culture of regulation in the building industry was a major concern.

    “There are buildings that have been compromised and there are any amount of builders and maybe even sub-trades and so on that really don’t have the expertise to be doing what they are doing within our industry,” he said.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sydney-evacuation-she-ll-be-right-building-culture-a-worry-say-experts?cid=news:socialshare:twitter

  48. CNN

    A church service in the Netherlands, aimed at stopping an Armenian family from being deported, has been going around the clock since October 26. Under Dutch law, police officers are not permitted to enter a church while a religious service is taking place.

  50. TallebudgeraLurker

    We lived in the Gold Coast in the early 90s and used to be astounded at the rapidity of demolition/construction of apartment buildings.

    There was a joke that anything older than ten years was earmarked for demolition! But it did make you wonder about the standards both of the buildings being demolished as well as those replacing them.

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