Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is all I could drag together today.

    The Australian’s analysis for the quarterly state by state Newspoll figures makes for devastating reading for the Coalition.
    Katharine Murphy writes that Australia has not succumbed to the populism shaking other western democracies. But the major parties know they are on borrowed time as she explains that the Coalition’s panic over polls has set the stage for a radical reshaping of Australian politics
    The state government is scrambling to ensure the “structural integrity” of several high-rise buildings in the Sydney Olympic Park precinct after cracks in Opal Tower forced hundreds of residents to evacuate on Monday. Which Coalition minister be the first to blame the CFMEU?
    Bloomberg reports that Trump has expressed confidence on Tuesday in Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is struggling to contain his first real crisis but has failed to assuage investors unnerved by turmoil in Washington. If the “deep state” does exist in the US I wish they would do something about Trump!
    Adam Creighton writes that a sharp fall in confidence in the global economy coupled with feared chaos in the Trump administration has hammered shares.
    The idiot is insisting shutdown will not end unless Congress funds his border wall.
    Trump makes no secret of his loathing for Democrats, border-crossers, climate-change advocates, China, NATO and the head of the US Federal Reserve and now he has added another name to his enemies list: Santa.
    This article from Michael West on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority makes for angry reading!.
    The National Help Hotline’s financial counsellors are more worried than usual as the presence of “buy now, pay later” outfits have established a foothold.
    Shane Wright tells us that state treasuries are downgrading outlooks for their economies and local job markets.
    Two experienced trauma specialists take us inside an A and E department in Victoria.
    A Sydney magistrate has lost his cool in rebuking a Canberra man who was caught carrying 14 MDMA tablets in a condom internally at a music festival at Sydney Olympic Park in December last year. Sufficient to nominate the perp for “Arsehole of the Week” I’d say.

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.

    A Christmas message from Alan Moir.

    Jon Kudelka with a Christmas disappointment for Morrison.

  2. ‘He’s messing with people’s lives’: Bitter federal workers pound Trump for shutdown over a ‘a temper tantrum for a wall’

    Furloughed federal workers are waking up on Christmas morning wondering when they will see their next paychecks and how they will feed their families — and they are blaming it all on Donald Trump.

    Jaime Contreras, vice president of a 163,000-member chapter of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), said his members fear how long the wall debate will continue.

    “It’s an issue that everyone is going to dig their heels in,” Contreras said. “The wall is irrational and impractical, and Democrats are not going to back down so we’re stuck in this situation and the people who are suffering are people working in these facilities living paycheck to paycheck.”

  3. White House aides want Trump to throw Mnuchin ‘under the bus’ for stock market meltdown

    According to a report from Bloomberg News, President Donald Trump has been considering firing Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin for some time now, and his latest press release escapade that set the markets reeling on Christmas Eve might have been the last straw.

    With the stock market taking a record dive on Monday, Bloomberg reports that the knives are out for Mnuchin, who did his damage while vacationing in Mexico while Trump postponed his holiday vaction to Mar-a-Lago to deal with the government shutdown

  4. Thanks BK – I see you have another hot day coming, so hopefully fire-free.

    I still cannot get over that Australian headline – “Regions fail to embrace Morrison”

    Because the regions should be embracing Morrison and the fact that they clearly are not means that they, rather than the Coalition Government, are failing!

    Ultimately these three month Newspoll ratings are probably a better guide to election outcomes than the fortnightly numbers, and this time they reveal a fairly ‘locked-in’ position against the Coalition.

  5. ‘Incompetent’ Trump combines the worst attributes of our worst presidents: WaPo columnist

    In an absolutely harsh and uncompromising Christmas Eve column for the Washington Post, journalist and MSNBC contributor Eugene Robinson all but called Donald Trump the worst president ever.

    Labeling Trump as incompetent, impulsive and amoral, Robinson said he embodies some of the worst attributes of a rogue’s gallery of past U.S. Presidents.

    “The chaos all around us is what happens when the nation elects an incompetent, narcissistic, impulsive and amoral man as president. This Christmas, heaven help us all,” he began.

  6. Maude Lynne@4:31am( from previous thread’
    So Bob Carr did a act like Clinton repealing ‘Glass Steagall’ act (I understand it did not destroy the lives of millions of people like it did during GFC), that is changing the law to allow private certifiers to certify than council certifiers.

  7. PhoenixRED@6:59am
    Yesterday night I watched ‘It’s a wonderful life’ movie for the umpteenth time.
    Angel Clarence showed George Bailey what a little mean town ‘Bedford falls’ would have been if George Bailey was not born ie ‘Pottersville’.
    Then it struck that about half of USA (45% who voted for republicans in mid terms) has become Trumpsville.

  8. A propos of nothing, I was watching ‘It’s A Wonderful Life’ yesterday (of course) and it bugged me that the actress playing the younger brother’s wife reminded me of someone but I couldn’t think who.

    Then I got it.

    Chloe Shorten.

  9. Socrates@7:10am
    Rocket Rocket@1:05am (from previous thread) discussed Ross Fitzerald article in Murdoch press and mentioned how LNP are achieving surplus.
    Murdoch press is behaving as if the projected surplus is the actual surplus. They forgot that there is gap between a cup and a lip.

    “Not out”
    Once again William failed to ‘caught and bowl’ our BKs Dawn Patrol when taking the ‘New Thread’ link. It’s all about the timing.

    This could be an omen for todays big game.

    BK I hope the weather Gods are good for you today and the next few days. Stay cool as usual.

  11. Opal Tower

    “it moved 2mm” is bullshit. A load bearing structure failed in a 30 story building. It is a very serious issue. The 2 mm matter.

    I doubt it will be the certifiers. They just check the paper work is in order when it comes to the concrete tests and that someone has signed off the structural design.

    There will be a few people going over the structural design calculations right now.
    Will not take long to find out if there was fraud in the concrete testing.
    If all the reinforcement didn’t get put in, then yes the certifiers as well as those that committed the fraud are in trouble. That won’t take long either as you can use radar to find out what is there.

    The outcome of the investigation is going to be interesting and if fraud or design error very quick.

  12. I still cannot get over that Australian headline – “Regions fail to embrace Morrison”

    Not only that, they’re disregarding clear instructions from Murdoch’s minions.

  13. Frednk

    Regarding Opal, it will be interesting to check building materials. There is no national approach to testing imported building materials, including reinforcing steel. There was a recent case of an NZ road bridge where the deck had to be removed and rebuilt because the Chinese steel used for reo bar was not up to standard.

    As for the legislation, Carr should never have removed builders from liability. Labor must fix that throwback to the Obeid factional era. Private certifiers are still part of the buyer beware era of delusional self regulation. It must be fixed. We need mandatory national standards for building materials and safety so the system cannot be corrupted any time a Liberal state government is elected.

    We are moving towads national systems where engineers have to be registered and are liable for safety on infrastructure works. Surely builders on building projects with five times the profit margin should have the same degree of accountability.

  14. This is the first year I have been made aware of the NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) Santa Tracker.

    There is some vague connection in my mind of the official effort to convince children that Santa is real, and the ready acceptance of “a living Jesus”.

    Does Morrison believe in Santa?

  15. Shellbell

    The structural engineer’s work is on paper for all to see; if there is a mistake it will be found without a raid.

    To protect his backside the certifier will have to produce a verifiable paper trail, the certifier will be keen to produce it, there will be no raid required.

    Raids will happen if tests reveal a fraud.

  16. Good morning Bludgers from my phone because bleeding private enterprise ISPs can’t get a new modem to me within 2 long weeks!

    nbn, the quasi government entity came out within a couple of days and told me what I already knew, ‘lady, your modem is fried’ but no, the private enterprise ISP has its ‘processes’ that it has to go through before it agrees to hand over a new modem!

    Speaking of Private Carrtifiers, it appears that they have popped up in the crap nbn space as well. Now, after your modem is fried by lightning, as you very well know, the ISP demands that you get an ACMA certified technician out, which you have to pay for yourself, to check your wiring and inform the ISP that it’s not the wiring that is at fault, which I already knew, but the modem, which I also already knew!

    Anyway I called bs on that! My wiring had only been replaced by Telstra/nbn in August, the last time lightning fried the line.

    So the ISP agreed, after much gnashing of teeth and wailing from moi, to skip their laborious ‘process’ and just send me the modem.

    Still waiting though, because Xmas and public holidays. Which I don’t begrudge, but aaarrrggghhh!

  17. Interesting to see the GRN’s are down everywhere except WA, where they are actually up 3 points. I guess WA is far enough removed from the destabilised NSW and the disappointing state campaign in Vic.

    Also interesting is the +3 to others in SA. I’m guessing people are liking the Job Sharkie is doing. She’s had a bit more profile with the enhanced importance of the cross-bench since Wentworth. And unlike the Indis, has a party that reputation could flow to.

  18. There’s a very good explanation for why the Regions are not embracing the party of the bosses, no matter how hard ScaMo tries to seem like one of the boys. The Regions are where your exploited workers who haven’t had a real pay rise in 5 years come from and who leave home way before sunrise every day to go work in the city on high rises like the Opal. They are flogged like navvies to work hard and fast just so they and their families can live from paycheck to paycheck.

    They’re not stupid, either. So, of course they aren’t going to be sucked in by The Daily ScaMograph or ScaMo. They are living the sad reality of a working life in the 21st century.

  19. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Some interesting material.

    However, reading as I occasionally do, The Australian and in particular – an article

    It’s time for Morrison to put in place his big guns

    I think this item may have been give a run yesterday over five furlongs and pulled up lame and had to be shot.

    Nevertheless, having been told by devoted GP on Monday that “there’s nothing wrong with you” and in a fit of pique taking my disappointment out on the staff by singing to the wonderful receptionist girls (ladies) We Wish You a Merry Christmas then out to the door turning a la June Dally Watkins and finishing with a big “And a Happy New Year; I think a couple of questions are in order.

    Firstly and most importantly (to my mind)
    Who or what is a emeritus professor of history and politics at Griffith University. Because that, apparently, is what our esteemed Mr. Ross Fitzgerald is.

    Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and, yes, Julie Bishop are among the most talented, experienced and energetic Coalition MPs. Yet, for different reasons, they are seen by some as among the most divisive. Nonetheless, if Scott Morrison is to have any chance of winning next year’s federal election, he should bring them into his cabinet; or, if not, offer them each an influential position outside of federal parliament.

    The political reality for the Prime Minister is that they should be in or out.

    This will in future be referred to as Shrodinger’s Conundrum (as modified to suit Australian science).


    Aha ❗ I have just answered my own question, clever lad; Mr. Ross Fitzgerald is a comedian – not a good one and needs much better material if he is to be successful although he could get a gig on the Today Show filling in with the band (is there a band) should the occasion arise for a triangle player.

    Exhaustion has now set in as I prepare to take my morning medication and get ready for a big day at the TV cricket.

    ☕ ☮😎

  20. “Katharine Murphy writes that Australia has not succumbed to the populism”

    Well we did, we elected Howard on the lies about Children overboard, and then we elected Abbott.

  21. From Katherine Murphy’s article linked by BK:

    “Australia has not succumbed to the populism shaking other western democracies. But the major parties know they are on borrowed time.”

    Comments aren’t open for the article, so I’ll have my say here. I strongly disagree with the first sentence. Indeed it is at least in part contradicted by her second sentence.

    Australia has succumbed. What’s different here to what’s been happening in many other democracies is that we haven’t seen the rise of a strong far right party. The reason for that is that what was our main Centre-Right party has shifted rightwards to largely accomodate the discontent.

    The “Liberal” party occupies the entire Right hand part of the political compass except its most extreme fringes. Strongly right wing former generals feel quite at home in the party, as do extremists in the media. The Prime Minister and many in the Government parties respect and admire the extremist Donald Trump. The political centre ground has been largely vacated by the “Liberals”, with the few Liberals remaining there exercising little influence over the party. Pauline Hanson has not been able to really get off the ground because the “Liberals”, starting with John Howard, “addressed her supporters’ concerns” as an Australian editorial once put it.

    It’s actually similar to what gas happened in the USA, although they are much further down that track.

  22. The couple arrested and released without charge in relation to the Gatwick drone incident could win at least £75,000 from the newspapers who identified them, according to a leading libel lawyer.

    Mark Stephens, head of media law at Howard Kennedy, said they had a strong legal case if they wished to pursue legal action. “Absent of a compelling reason and the police saying you can, you may no longer identify people who have been arrested.

    “The damage is likely to be in the region of £75,000 to £125,000. It could be more when you total all of the news outlets, because each one is going to pay something for the damage it caused. I don’t see any lawyer who wouldn’t take it on a no-win-no-fee basis.”

    They were identified in many newspapers and the Mail on Sunday ran the couple’s picture on its front page next to the headline: “Are these the morons who ruined Christmas?”

  23. @KayJay Ever since Google screwed their news service, there’s been a hole in the market for news aggregation. Making Dawn Patrol more prominent may bring more people to the site (and thus more income for William).

  24. Socrates
    In Victoria or government passed legislation in the Lower house that Engineers have to be registered ( and I went off and got chartered status to deal with it); the Liberals blocked it in the upper house. If it is an engineering error resulting from the use of an overseas structural engineering services; it is going to be interesting.

    I agree 100% with the use of overseas material. The structural engineer would have specified that it meets Australian standards. The importer would have provided certificates that it met those standards (not worth the paper they were not printed on). Who is responsible. The certifier has his paper trail; and he is not in a position to require Australian testing.

  25. C@tmomma
    Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 7:49 am
    Comment #20

    The kerfuffle with Modem replacement must be very frustrating.

    What can be done about circuit protection to prevent further damage?

    Good luck with the phone and the thumb.
    ( ◑‿◑)ɔ┏–┑٩(^◡^ )
    (っ^▿^)۶٩(˘◡˘ )
    (͡• ͜ʖ ͡•)

  26. DVC

    Then you might understand that there are a number of us who back up BK’s excellent work and I don’t think he’d want the extra burden of being another ‘news outlet’.

  27. In relation to the Murphy article this morning- why is the workers fight for a decent share of the nations wealth, the provision of quality services and decent planning for the future always labeled with the slur of ‘populism’?
    Big business demanding more and more is the always acceptable norm, with no epithet attached to it.

  28. Looking forward to 2019 – I think.
    We are more populous. Our need for resources is greater. Our expectations more immediate. And while our capacity for change is elastic, this planet’s provision for that change is finite.
    The generation that never had it so good risks handing off the hangover of its excess and inaction to its children.

    In the past I have been pretty optimistic; but this planet’s leader’s response (and Australia’s especially)to global warming has been really disheartening. I don’t see us leaving our kids & grand kids a better world.

  29. Agree with WWP – we did succumb to populism with Howard & Abbott (& now Morrison looks to be lining up on the same flight path). It is just not as virulent here as it is in some other nations US, Hungary, Poland.
    Be thankful it is not a lot worse in Indonesia.

  30. DVC

    Welcome. The more people (or bots!) who post the better. You will have noticed (if you study it) several hundred posters – some every-day, some occasional. I have sometimes thought that if our population were 300 million like the USA and there were then approximately twelve times as many posts here and it would be near impossible to ever keep up – there would be say 600 posts this morning so far instead of 50!

  31. @lizzie I thought it would solve the problem where he posts and then a new thread gets started immediately. I also thought that because he does excellent work people might like to see it made more prominent, rather than buried in the middle of 10 pages of comments. But it was just a suggestion. If people disagree it’s not a big deal.

  32. DVC @ #36 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:17 am

    @KayJay Ever since Google screwed their news service, there’s been a hole in the market for news aggregation. Making Dawn Patrol more prominent may bring more people to the site (and thus more income for William).

    One of life’s pleasures for me is, early morning, is to check Poll Bludger for items of interest and in particular reading through what BK has summarised. (Damned spellcheck thinks lots of esses should be zedds). A good start for the day and sometimes a focal point to investigate further.

    All part of the Poll Bludger ritual.

    For interest one can always check the newspaper online headings to get a feel for what’s what – if you get my drift.

    For instance

    I expect that you already know that. I also expect to see your take on various subjects from time to time.

    Au revoir. 😇 😎 – for the cricket ❗

  33. Fresnk

    The photographs of the wall damage in the Opal Tower are compelling and terrifying.

    This is negligence or at worst utter incompetence.

    Forget the Christmas break investigations / raids etc need to happen this week.

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