Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. I like the idea of a separate thread for BK’s dawn patrol, but I doubt William would agree. This isn’t a news site but a polling site after all.

  2. KayJay

    Thanks for all your musings – I am always entertained. And good news that the GP has given you a clean “Bill” of health – roll on 2019.

    But that Fitzgerald article – it made me ill reading it around 1230 am this morning, and it hasn’t improved in the cold light of day. Really The Australian has degenerated into the most appalling voice of Sauron (Murdoch) – I do wonder when Rupert departs whether as in Lord of the Rings all his armies and castles will collapse.

  3. Morning all

    The opal tower was a big topic of discussion yesterday
    Not surprising, due to the number of tradies in my family.

    Will be interesting to see how this opal tower scenario plays out.

  4. C@t “Anyway I called bs on that! My wiring had only been replaced by Telstra/nbn in August, the last time lightning fried the line.”

    Maybe there’s something wrong with the design of the network that it’s so vulnerable to lightning, not exactly an uncommon occurrence on the East Coast.

  5. You wouldn’t want to be an investor in the Opal Tower…I imagine real estate value is ziltch at the moment…there are gonna be some angry people.

  6. KayJay says:
    Wednesday, December 26, 2018 at 8:34 am
    Damned spellcheck thinks lots of esses should be zedds.

    Drives me crazy as well. Or is that crazier. Maybe even crassier.

  7. KayJay,
    We have industrial strength surge protectors! But lightning strikes us here either directly or so close we can see it. No surge protector can cope with that. It’s a function of where we live. The ground acts like a lightning rod but in a bad way. 🙁

  8. C@tmomma @ #60 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:49 am

    KayJay,
    We have industrial strength surge protectors! But lightning strikes us here either directly or so close we can see it. No surge protector can cope with that. It’s a function of where we live. The ground acts like a lightning rod but in a bad way. 🙁

    Oh well, I have done my best to help with lots of fuggems indiscriminately directed to points NSEW. Prolly don’t help but can’t hoit. 😻

  9. RocketRocket,
    I have read that Lachlan Murdoch is turning out to be worse than his father. He is the one who has been pushing Fox ‘News’ towards being simply a propaganda machine for Trump and the execrable Far Right.

    Thank goodness he didn’t get control of Channel 10 here!

  10. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, December 26, 2018 at 8:40 am
    C@t “Anyway I called bs on that! My wiring had only been replaced by Telstra/nbn in August, the last time lightning fried the line.”

    Maybe there’s something wrong with the design of the network that it’s so vulnerable to lightning, not exactly an uncommon occurrence on the East Coast.

    Optical fibre is not vulnerable to lightning strikes because glass is not a conductor. Another reason why the Coalitions destruction of the original NBN plan was a very bad thing.

  11. This is worth reading as a mirror image of what is happening here.

    “While the border wall is what this president talks about so much to the media, behind the scenes his administration is constructing all sorts of policies that are erecting an invisible wall,”

    Anu Joshi, the New York Immigration Coalition’s senior director of immigrant rights and policy, said because so many of these changes are happening administratively, there is little accountability and oversight.

    “The thing that is most striking is how almost surgical in precision they’ve been with making these administrative and policy level changes that really, really impact for the negative people’s lives,” Joshi said.

    These changes are often too bureaucratic for the average American, leaving immigration advocates and attorneys struggling to drum up interest or outrage from the public.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/25/trump-wall-immigration-policies-mexico-border

  12. So fear and division is equal to populism according to some here!

    I noticed in her article Murphy didn’t mention the Greens once.

    How astute!!! 🙂

  13. “Is there any precedent for Australian awards such as the Order of Australia being rescinded if people are later convicted of serious crimes? As seems to happen in the UK with knighthoods.”

    Yes there is. Examples that I can think of are former Qld Police Commissioner Terry Lewis, who turned out to be corrupt, and Justice Marcus Einfeld (NSW), who got tangled up in a ridiculous kerfuffle to avoid a speeding ticket.

  14. Dear DVC, despite the Lab/Green wars, the RGR wars and even the ubiquitous nath, let me put it, as an avid lurker.

    This blog is working just fine, thank you very much. Long may BK’s work continue unchanged, with our heartfelt gratitude, just as is. It ain’t broke. Don’t fix it.

    And a belated cheerio to all who haunt these pages unseen and unheard.

    Long may Kay Jay play his merry jigs amongst us.

  15. I would characterise cultivating fear out of proportion to the actual problem at hand as populism. It’s exploiting emotion for political gain rather than dealing with the problem. Demonising outgroups is also a form of populism. So is wedge politics – dividing the community, often over non-issues or 4th order issues (culture wars anyone?), with the intention of grabbing the bigger half.

  16. DVC @ #36 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:17 am

    @KayJay Ever since Google screwed their news service, there’s been a hole in the market for news aggregation. Making Dawn Patrol more prominent may bring more people to the site (and thus more income for William).

    Garbage.

    BK’s sterling efforts must go, as they always have done, where they will be seen by the most people.

    In any case, we would miss the interplay between William’s new threads and the Dawn Patrol!

  17. Which is why I am glad that Peter Dutton did not get to be Prime Minister. He specialises in all of the above. Plus, with the media arm of the Coalition supporting him, who knows what sort of fork-tongued moral panics and incitement to rage he could have tried to engender?

  18. Steve777 @ #35 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 5:15 am

    I would characterise cultivating fear out of proportion to the actual problem at hand as populism. It’s exploiting emotion for political gain rather than dealing with the problem. Demonising outgroups is also a form of populism. So is wedge politics – dividing the community, often over non-issues or 4th order issues (culture wars anyone?), with the intention of grabbing the bigger half.

    But there you are actively working to create the desired environment,

    where I think populism is changing to reflect an already existing environment,

    which is a much more passive thing. 🙂

  19. But you gotta laugh at some msm members use of the term populism.

    They claim that a ‘popular’ policy with voters is ‘populist’ (in a bad way) if a party adopts it, as if somehow a popular policy is an easy way out or an easy way of gaining votes.

    It might become the latter — but that is because most voters want it — and if the policy is worthwhile and well-thought-out, why shouldn’t a party adopt it?

    I don’t quite understand the pejorative stress that media uses in this case.

  20. Clearly Opal Tower has poured concrete walls with an air bubble that has collapsed

    Shoddy construction
    Slipshod building certification

    My neighbour the builder says the best concrete walls are tilt slab
    ie the slab is poured and left to cure for 3 days, moved onto site, tilted into position to finish curing.

    A cheaper method is to build the formwork then pour the concrete between the 2 temporary plywood walls. Use a large concrete sticker mixture to move the concrete around evenly to avoid trapping air holes. If you are too vigorous with the stick mixer then forms will blow leaving you with a concrete spill. Safe for buildings less than 3 storeys

  21. Demme m’lud – the jig’s up. ⏫

    I now have the English – Aus dictionary installed as default and the thing is treating me with the contempt it thinks I deserve. I put it down to the perversity of inanimate objects and things.

    Therefore – no more complaints about zedds and esses.

    Now for the cricket – sight screen a little to the left please and take block middle and leg (what can that possibly mean ❓ ) 🏏

  22. Sprocket

    In response to Sprocket_ (Block)
    Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 9:57 pm
    Comment #2114
    Some pictures from within Opal Tower emerging..
    (the previous thread)

    Disclaimer – I don’t work for the Bonacci Group nor consult to Icon Contraction Group or any other apartment developers or builders. I have overviewed detailed design work undertaken by the Bonacci Group at various times in the last 15 years.
    Looking at the photographs at the entry to Apartment 1005, I would think that someone (Fire and Rescue/Police/others) has torn the plasterboard off the column to access the concrete structure behind the cladding because the loud noise may have been reported to have come from that area. There appears to be a compression failure in the concrete at door head level on the left hand side – it is a bit hard to see clearly but anyone who has seen concrete compressive tests in a testing laboratory would (i) recognise the typical mode of compressive failure and (ii) be aware that the concrete fails with a loud noise. Maybe they could form a similar view to mine.
    Again, I for one, would wait for the answer to come out – I still have some faith in the system properly identifying the cause. The ‘no win – no fee’ legal firms will be circling so I expect a full investigation to be undertaken and for it to report appropriately.

  23. This is quite a startling admission.

    How do you get to Test level and not understand what you can and cannot do to a ball?

    “Dave (Warner) suggested to me to carry the action out on the ball given the situation we were in the game and I didn’t know any better,” Bancroft told Gilchrist. “I didn’t know any better because I just wanted to fit in and feel valued really. As simple as that.

    https://www.cricket.com.au/news/cameron-bancroft-didnt-know-better-attitude-changed-yoga-sandpaper-ball-tampering-scandal-return/2018-12-26

  24. Socrates@7:46am
    I read in one of the posts that there is problem with load bearing wall. It is hard to believe that a 32 storey building has load bearing walls. There should be load bearing pillars and beams.

  25. TallebudgeraLurker

    Thanks = always good to hear from people who have appropriate knowledge. I saw those photos and wondered how that could happen – and of course tabloids would prefer not to have a simpler explanation that the plasterboard has been deliberately ripped off to examine for problems underneath!

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