Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Given the time of year there’s a reasonable amount of good stuff here. And now I’m heading to the oval to set the sprinklers up to counter the current string of very hot weather.

    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes about what’s in store for banking executives in the wake of the royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/monumental-shift-bank-bosses-and-shareholders-face-a-poorer-future-20181224-p50o3a.html
    The Australian reports that older Australians have delivered an early blow to Scott Morrison’s pitch to win back their support before next year’s federal election, with 45 per cent of voters aged 50 and older declaring they are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance.
    https://www.outline.com/Jr5Cad
    Extreme record-breaking heatwave conditions are forecast to sweep across four states over coming days, sparking health and fire warnings. A broad area stretching across much of southern Australia is set to experience the hot weather, with temperatures generally 10C to 14C higher than usual for this time of year, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/26/australia-heatwave-2018-weather-new-year
    Economics professor Rebecca Cassells says that Australia is building one of the biggest low-paid workforces in its history, with serious consequences for the economy and wages.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-low-paid-workforce-a-threat-to-wages-growth-20181224-p50o4y.html
    Michael West reports that ANZ chief Shayne Elliott has become the subject of a criminal prosecution. We regret, however, that this may not be quite the scoop that it sounds. For it is not the police who have brought the proceedings. Nor is there a DPP in sight. Rather, the action against Shayne is a private prosecution brought by none other than Rod Culleton, the former senator for One Nation who once famously called on the High Court to give him with a trial by jury.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/exclusive-anz-chief-faces-criminal-prosecution/
    The AFR’s editorial tells us why 2018 was the year of the woeful world leader.
    https://outline.com/rN3MWM
    Somehow I don’t think we’ll see David Warner play Test cricket again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/warner-backed-into-a-corner-as-bancroft-opens-up-20181226-p50o8u.html
    Ross Taylor says that developers cutting costs are the root cause of building defects. He makes some troubling statements.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/huge-pressure-developers-cutting-costs-are-root-cause-of-defects-20181226-p50o97.html
    The Australian advises that the prefabricated concrete panel said to have cracked in a western Sydney residential skyrise was made nearby by a company that turns over $65 million a year supplying a range of such precast products to commercial builders.
    https://outline.com/HgXvmv
    Eryk Bagshaw tells us that department stores are set to be hammered by one of their worst holiday shopping periods since the global financial crisis,
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/big-ships-to-turn-around-department-stores-face-new-year-slump-20181226-p50oad.html
    The backlog of family law cases in the Federal Circuit Court will take six to eight years to clear with existing resources. This is a national disgrace!
    https://outline.com/bjX9df
    Cole Latimer explains a challenge for wind energy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tyranny-of-distance-the-renewable-power-disconnect-20181214-p50mc4.html
    Has Labor set the right course on nuclear disarmament?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-sets-the-right-course-on-nuclear-disarmament-20181224-p50o22.html
    More on Andrew Broad demonstrates that dick disease has many symptoms.
    https://outline.com/J63496
    Facebook used to be a fun place where friends shared cat videos and swapped memes, then we discovered it had teeth and claws. Now the social network has hired teams to try and tame the beast.
    https://outline.com/hz4Jk4
    Troppo Trump does it again, this time with his Christmas message.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-christmas-message-it-s-a-disgrace-what-s-happening-20181226-p50o96.html
    As voters prepare to return to the polls in 2019, is lying in federal politics easier because of Donald Trump?
    https://outline.com/Lapenn
    This guy is a standout for nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/man-allegedly-strangles-pregnant-partner-throws-2yo-girl-on-christmas-20181226-p50o9x.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope with his take on public housing standards.

    From the prolific Matt Golding.








    Cathy Wilcox. Ouch!

    Andrew Dyson and mixed Christmas Messages.

    Peter Broelman and the troubles of certain conservative MPs.

    Zanetti spitting out some venom at the Greens.

  2. Trump’s ‘bone spurs’ are a lie: Daughter of podiatrist who helped get president out of Vietnam service

    The daughters of the late Dr. Larry Braunstein, a one-time podiatrist based in Queens, have told the New York Times that their father helped President Donald Trump escape getting drafted during the Vietnam War by fabricating a diagnosis of bone spurs in his feet.

    56-year-old Dr. Elysa Braunstein tells the Times that her late father implied that Trump did not suffer from a debilitating foot ailment, and that he offered the bogus diagnosis as a favor to Trump patriarch Fred Trump.

    “I know it was a favor,” explains Elysa Braunstein, whose account was also corroborated by her sister, Sharon Kessel. “What he got was access to Fred Trump. If there was anything wrong in the building, my dad would call and Trump would take care of it immediately. That was the small favor that he got.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/26/us/politics/trump-vietnam-draft-exemption.html

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/26/two-favors-that-may-have-helped-trump-avoid-vietnam-war/?utm_term=.a55ec068ead8

  3. Time for G.O.P. to Threaten to Fire Trump

    Republican leaders need to mount an intervention.

    Up to now I have not favored removing President Trump from office. I felt strongly that it would be best for the country that he leave the way he came in, through the ballot box. But last week was a watershed moment for me, and I think for many Americans, including some Republicans.

    It was the moment when you had to ask whether we really can survive two more years of Trump as president, whether this man and his demented behavior — which will get only worse as the Mueller investigation concludes — are going to destabilize our country, our markets, our key institutions and, by extension, the world. And therefore his removal from office now has to be on the table.

    https://twitter.com/tomfriedman/status/1077335382306508800

  4. One wonders how the HeraldScum and their kennel mates in the Daily ToiletPaper gets access to Andrew Broad’s Whatsapp messages?

    The AFP? McCormack? The PMO? Surely not Broad himself – is he looking for sympathy? So this leak gives fuel to the meme that The Nationals have their pants around their ankles, without contemplating the consequences.

    http://outline.com/H5gL8T

  8. The bizarre thing about that age-stratified Newspoll article is the way the writer puts words into the mouths of each age-group. Thus young people are supporting Labor because of early childhood and education policies, while people over 50 are ‘turned off’ Labor because of tax and negative gearing policies. No evidence is presented that these are the reasons. Maybe the whole swing away from the Coalition in all age groups (which of course is conveniently overlooked when putting out the results of the over 50s) is due to climate and energy policy – who knows for sure?

    I think Mr. Ed’s informal survey has it right – there are just innumerable things that have turned the majority of the Australian people against this Government. And most of them they can’t change (dumping Turnbull etc), or won’t change (climate policy etc) so there is no way out.

    The more I think about it the more I am convinced that if the fools in the Coalition party rooms had gone with Turnbull and Frydenberg’s NEG policy they could have papered over some of the cracks (possibly an unfortuante analogy given the current situation at Opal Tower!) and kept the margin to 49-51 for a narrow but respectable loss.

    Instead the wreckers in the Liberals and Nationals will now see the fruits of their labours – a massive loss. Which will be much better for the country, and may in the long run be better for their parties (after a strange post-election period where the Liberals elect the just-survived Tony Abbott as their new leader and spend the first few years in disastrous but very shouty opposition.)

    BK – hope you stay fire-free in your area today. Our relatives in the Mallee are facing up to their second of four days of 44-45 degree heat today.

    ****************************************

    Cud Chewer (from last night)

    When I can get the comments to show up in the DT or The Australian they are actually worth reading. In fact they are probably more worth reading than the articles they are commenting on – and they provide an excellent barometer of the far right of the Liberal ‘family’. Currently that Barometer is at about “Krakatau 1883” level! It reached this level in the lead-up to Turnbull’s knifing, then subsided for a while when they all thought that, even though their man Dutton hadn’t got up, everything was going to turn around with Morrison. This hasn’t happened obviously and some of the best comments are the venom directed at Morrison as ‘just another Malcolm’ and a ‘LINO’ (Liberal In Name Only – can’t they even be original, this expression imported straight from the ‘republican’ RINO version in the USA!)

  10. The last adult is leaving the White House — what it means for Syria, Afghanistan and NATO, as Trump leans in to Putin

    James Mattis, as defence secretary, was one of three retired generals in the Trump administration whose hope was to contain an ill-informed, temperamental, and unpredictable president. Now they’re all gone: national security adviser HR McMaster, pushed out early this year; White House chief of staff John Kelly, giving up at the end of December; and now Mattis, who resigned after losing hope that Trump can be restrained from impulsive actions, defying his advisers, threatening US allies and even embracing American foes.

    For Trump is now beyond advice and guidance. US foreign policy rests on the whim of this man: angry and frustrated by investigations closing in on him, but bunkered in the self-confidence that he is smarter than anyone else in the room.

    https://theconversation.com/james-mattis-what-defence-secretarys-resignation-means-for-syria-afghanistan-and-nato-as-trump-leans-in-to-putin-109204

  11. Taking a leaf out of ScoMoFaux’s book, Trump pays a surprise visit to Iraq…

    “From: “Bennett, Brian – Time U.S.”
    Date: December 26, 2018 at 3:29:00 PM EST
    Subject: Pool report #1 – Trump in Iraq

    Trump Iraq Dec 26 2018

    SUBJECT: Pool report #1 –POTUS in Iraq

    Greetings from Al Asad Air Base.

    President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump made a surprise trip to see U.S. combat troops in Iraq on the day after Christmas.

    Trump left the White House late on Dec. 25 for an unannounced movement to Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. Pool was prepositioned on the plane and did not see Trump board. Air Force One was wheels up at 12:06 am ET on Dec. 26. POTUS landed at 11:16 am ET/ 7:16 pm local time at Al Asad Air Base, a joint U.S.-Iraqi military base west of Baghdad.

    Asked why he wanted to come to Iraq, Trump told reporters before a meeting with military leaders on base: “It’s a place I have been talking about for many years, many many years,” he said. “I was talking about it as a civilian. ”

    Trump: “I want to come and pay my respects most importantly to the great soldiers, great troopers we have here.” While in Iraq, President Trump met with U.S. military leaders and spoke to troops. A scheduled in-person meeting with Iraq’s prime minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was cancelled.

    https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-pool-report-1-trump-in-iraq-1831325199

  12. So Donald is making a big song and dance about bringing ‘2,000 troops from Syria home’ to fulfil an election promise. Tip of the iceberg

  13. Morning all. Thanks BK. This article is correct in pointing out that the current electricity grid lacks the capacity to connect all potential renewable sites to markets. What it fails to mention is that building that grid capacity would cost a fraction of the cost of new power plants. I recall saying on this blog at the time of the GFC (!) that a new grid interconnector between SA and VIC via the SA SE/Vic SW coast would be a good project to build. It still hasn’t happened because the grid operators have no incentive to build it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tyranny-of-distance-the-renewable-power-disconnect-20181214-p50mc4.html

    Privatising electricity grids, as opposed to power stations, was a really terrible idea. IMO this is one issue where, apart from bad faith politics and the wrecking of Tony Abbott, the bureaucrats really screwed up.

  14. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol with some interesting items.

    Maintenant mes amis aux barricades.

    More on Andrew Broad demonstrates that dick disease has many symptoms.
    https://outline.com/J63496

    I’m not sure that kicking this dude when he’s down is the right thing to do.
    However – if I were to advise him I would say for him to cry a little and blame David Warner.

    The story –

    Ms Rose alleged that during the dinner Mr Broad, who holds his Victorian seat on a safe margin of 19.8 per cent, was “so forward and cocky” and he allegedly kept “grabbing my hand and putting it on his leg, so I excused myself and went to the bathroom and when I came back I told him I was leaving”.

    After the scandal broke, Mr Broad announced he would not recontest the next federal election, and that he would attempt to rebuild faith with his family.

    I think we can confidently look forward to a mini series – a projected highlight would be of the handsome but dickheaded dude putting his hand on the leg of the refined and genteel lady of a certain age who then rebuffs his fumbling advances and swishes out to the shaufeur driven Bentley. As she leaves she is heard to murmur – “the swine – the utter swine – attempting to befoul the merchandise prior to settling his account – he’ll pay for this – I’m used to a far better class of Parliamentarian.”
    The lady now out of breath from all that murmering now leaves the scene stage right to appear next in the pages of The Daily Telegraph.

    I forsee a 3% rating for this projected drama/comedy from Rotten Tomatoes.

    Who could play the part of the handsome young swain who previously endeavored to bring Mildura into the 18th Century.

    Big day for me – a couple of hours on day release with my favourite daughter. The ladies at the local bread shop will be so pleased to see us arrive (and depart).

    I’m fairly sure that a couple of puns are hidden in the above. Big prizes for finding them. 🐘🐨

  15. One more thing – the cricket. Bancroft’s revelations were confirmation of suspicions held since the day of the sandpaper. It is still a team game, and if one player organised it, then threw their captain and teammate under the bus to avoid responsibility, I agree they have no future in that team.

    As for the test, OMG it made a ScumMo speech seem interesting! Wickets can be fast or slow, seaming, spinning or bouncing, but that pitch had the unique achievement of being none of those things. That wicket is a fail. Three of the world’s top ranked bowlers and batsmen (Starc, Lyon and Kohli) could do nothing. Don’t boo Mitch Marsh, he did his best. Boo the curator. I watched for a while yesterday bit gave up and switched to a Netflix movie. I doubt I was alone.

    Why are we not having a Gabba test either? Sure the ground might be smaller capacity, but at least it would be interesting, on a good wicket. In getting greedy over gate revenue, the ACB is killing ratings revenue.

  17. Socrates

    I hate Test wickets where there is no swing/Seam/spin/bounce/pace as you say. Occasional wickets in India are like this and it just becomes a mind numbing game of attrition.

    The selectors must have known this was to be the case, which is why they selected Mitch Marsh. One weakness in the current Australian team is that just about none of the batsmen can bowl. Getting say 10-15 overs in a day out of Hussey / Waughs / Bevan etc was very handy in the past.

  21. Morning all and thanks once more BK

    The standards of editorship are terrible. Although I found the Dastyari article interesting, what most attracted my interest was the inability to spell viciousness. In the sidebar ‘viscousness’ (which is a quality of slipperiness. And in the body ‘visciousness’ which is not a word.

  25. WeWantPaul @ #399 Thursday, December 27th, 2018 – 2:46 am

    “Nationals MP Andrew Broad was allegedly given a 24-hour ultimatum by a Hong Kong woman to pay her to remain silent.”

    Surely that is a criminal offence even the AFP could find between their electioneering for the LNP?

    Broad calls it extortion, but she is asking for an allowance From an article, it appears as though the ‘allowance’ is part of the arrangement.

    A sugar daddy is a generous older man who spends lavishly on his mistress, girlfriend or boyfriend.

    He’s often a businessman, who considers himself too busy for conventional dating – and isn’t short of a few bob.

    A sugar baby, meanwhile, is normally an attractive younger woman who can’t afford her luxury lifestyle.

    The couple will usually establish a financial agreement early on – as well as their boundaries, such as whether or not they’re considering a sexual relationship.

    Some sugar babies ask for a monthly allowance, while other get ‘expenses’ in the form of glam holidays and shopping sprees.

    While a growing number of sugar babies are university students, who turn to their ‘daddy’ to pay their fees.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/5465767/sugar-baby-daddy-escort-how-does-relationship-work-summit/

  27. Shellbell

    So she made it back to shore?

    Maybe the Liberals can simplify their leadership coups – they could have ditched Malcolm Bligh Turnbull at sea (without a longboat and compass – and definitely no bread-fruit!)

  29. Tom

    A business arrangement that he reneged on perhaps?

    I am concerned for his wife – putting up with his Tinder and Sugar Daddy persona is obviously stressful. But did anyone else think she looked abnormally thin/wasted in those photos of them recently?

    I hope she looks after herself and gets appropriate health care if needed. I believe she works in the healthcare system (in palliative care?) – workers in that industry are notorious for neglecting their own health while caring for others.

  30. … the cricket. Bancroft’s revelations were confirmation of suspicions held since the day of the sandpaper. It is still a team game, and if one player organised it, then threw their captain and teammate under the bus to avoid responsibility, I agree they have no future in that team.

    It is indeed a team game. It is the fault of the team culture built up over many years with a combination of tacit approval, encouragement, neglect and incompetence of management and CA executives.

    Warner is possibly slightly more culpable than Bancroft. However Warner was under enormous pressure and clearly suffering emotional strain during that tour. In a team environment management and his team mates (including Bancroft – but especially Smith) should have patted him on the shoulder and said ‘nah mate, we arent doing that’.

  34. SW Australia does well when the weather goes crazy over East, all the mildness tends to huddle over in this corner. Perth BOM forecast 27 26 27 30 33 28 27

  36. Come to think of it, just WHY would Julie Bishop still be willing to perform stunts at all, in particular jumping off a yacht at sea? What is the benefit to her or her side of politics?

    I know the stock answer is that any publicity is good publicity, but what would be the object of that publicity? Surely she doesn’t believe there’s still time to stage another Libspill, or that, even if there was, it would have any other outcome other than to make her party even more of a laughing stock?

  37. Some of our ‘engineers in residence’ may be able to explain what sort of stuff ups the following indicates.

    Down the road from the Opal building, a relatively new, high-rise residential building has not made front page news but is also having problems. The structural failure has been more gradual. The building’s cantilevered balconies started sagging gradually soon after occupation. Some balconies have sagged as much as 180mm on the outer edges over three years. As a result, cracks have opened up, water runs away from the outlets and pools on the balconies. Major structural repair works are being commissioned.

    A similar unreported story is to be told at a nearby 300-unit block. Structural deficiencies have led to major deflection of cantilevered concrete slabs. This structural defect is just one item in $6 million dollars worth of waterproofing and other faults found in this new building.

    https://outline.com/FWtVhz

  38. Bushfire Bill

    Jewellery’s ‘why’ may be about a position lined up for after politics rather than the Coalition. The job featuring lots of glam and publicity shots i’m sure.

  39. #weatheronPB. Sydney’s official temperatures are also very mild, being 27 and 27 on Christmas and Boxing Day and a forecast 29 today. However, that’s measured on a breezy headland in the Harbour and tells you what it’s like at a Harbourside mansion. In Olympic Park 12 km to the West it was 32, 32 and a forecast of 34 for today, closer to what most Sydney people actually experience. At Penrith, 50 km West it’s 36, 36 and 37.

  40. Some of our ‘engineers in residence’ may be able to explain what sort of stuff ups the following indicates.

    I have an engineering degree. Can I have a go?

    Engineering and construction companies have increasing numbers of cost managers or project finance executives and the like. My experience is that these companies and these types of staff members are really good at protecting profit – by keeping a job on budget and managing over-runs (or demanding variations if a government client). These people are meant to keep contractors honest in both quality and price but in a complicated bespoke development can often descend into picking the low hanging fruit of taking short cuts, screwing the people actually doing the work or demanding reduced prices on materials with barely a second glance as to the quality of the resultant work and rarely means seeking the top fruit of finding better more cost efficient processes including (especially) internal inefficiencies.

    Exhibit A – NBN rollout.

  41. The Opal Building is surely just the tip of the iceberg- a full investigation into dodgy buildings I imagine would expose hundreds/ thousands…and it is gonna get a lot worse as time moves on.
    The NSW Govt of course passed appalling laws that gives owners only 2 years to launch legal action against a builder (down from 7 years I think) so owners are going to be stuck with multi million repairs.
    I had an investment apartment- 3 million in (insured) repairs to the building- and the water leaks weren’t fixed….urgh

  43. So a low paid workforce, the IPA inspired nirvana dreamed of for decades by Tory governments , isn’t such a good thing (see article linked by BK)

    Well, whoever would have thought that might happen?

    .Many years ago when I lost a job and found a replacement at a much lower salary spending had to be reviewed.

    I found that there were lots of things I previously bought I didn’t really need. So I stopped buying and live relatively frugally to this day.

    People in the workforce battling to keep up without wage rises are no doubt making the same decisions.

  44. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, December 27, 2018 at 9:22 am
    Come to think of it, just WHY would Julie Bishop still be willing to perform stunts at all, in particular jumping off a yacht at sea? What is the benefit to her or her side of politics?

    I know the stock answer is that any publicity is good publicity, but what would be the object of that publicity? Surely she doesn’t believe there’s still time to stage another Libspill, or that, even if there was, it would have any other outcome other than to make her party even more of a laughing stock?

    It may be a case of relevance deprivation. Bishop liked being very prominent in the media , she may be missing it.

  46. Both Smith and Bancroft throwing Warner under the proverbial bus.
    We are yet to hear what Warner has to say to his fellow miscreants.
    But no matter which way you try and look at it, it was and is the responsibility of the Captain to say NO!!
    Smith knew and did nothing, guilty as charged.
    Let’s forget this entire mess and move on. In the history of cricket similar ball tampering has happened before, but never were the penalties so severe. Other countries, including the UK (MCC) laughed at us and our over the top media driven reaction and punishment. So, let’s stop this circus right now and forgive and forget.
    Get on with it.

  47. Spare a thought for the poor buggers working in Mt Newman mines up the Pilbara. Looking forward to a week of 45 45 44 45 44 44 44. #weatherfurnaceonPB.

  49. Poroti

    49 tipped in Marble Bar today after 48 yesterday.

    I know someone who lives there. Not sure how.

    Was talking to a nephew who does FIFO to the Pilbara about the OH rules to deal with heat. It’s a far cry from the old days of working in shorts and singlets and no air conditioned vehicles.

    Good thing.

  50. Can’t access it due to paywall (Herald Sun) but apparently the Nats are over Bridget McKenzie’s dithering about whether she’ll run for a Lower House seat and which one she’ll run for if she does.

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