BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 43
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  1. Mavis Smith
    “There’s one legacy that Trump will achieve: the most controversial, polarising president ever.”

    The one great legacy may be the destruction of the POTUS myth forever, I’m not sure where Obama fits but all before him have been without doubt either crooks, idiots, war criminals ,sex maniacs.. I’m some case they have been more than one of the above.

    Of course it’s possible the American public have been drinking the Kool-aid too long to notice or care

  2. The operators of a Melbourne cafe have been penalised over $140,000 for paying workers as little as $12 an hour and providing government inspectors with false records. @australian

  3. Quoll @ #296 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 10:11 am

    lizzie says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 1:44 pm
    Conservation is bloody hard when governments don’t support it.
    ———————————————
    The fact is that no government in Australia, Lab or Lib, has done anything much without a concerted and engaged public campaign for action.

    …

    So why have a Greens political Party?

    Better to put your effort into those public campaigns, which is where, as you say, the drive for change has come and had success.

    That is the exact point and source of criticism here of the Greens. 🙂

  7. Sorry if already posted..

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/salacious-judge-rebukes-buzzfeed-in-emma-husar-defamation-case-20181221-p50nm4.html

    But Justice Rares noted the article reported in its first paragraph that Ms Husar “bragged about who she was having sex with…according to allegations”.

    RELATED ARTICLE
    Emma Husar seeks special damages in BuzzFeed defamation case
    DEFAMATION NATION
    Emma Husar seeks special damages in BuzzFeed defamation case
    Add to shortlist
    He said the “fairly salacious” article “seems eminently capable” of conveying to readers the imputation as pleaded by Ms Husar’s lawyers.

    Justice Rares said that according to his “old-fashioned” understanding of the term, “slut” meant a person who engaged in casual sexual encounters without any emotional attachment.

    He said the article sounded “very much” like it was alleging Ms Husar had boasted about “sleep[ing] around” and said the imputation should not be struck out.

    This is looking to cost Alice Workman (plus those in the ABC that gave her an outlet) & Buzz Feed dearly

  8. So why have a Greens political Party?
    ——————————
    Evidently because many many people, in Australia, and around the world, believe that the incumbents have been pretty much useless and often an impediment. Particularly when they receive millions and millions of dollars from these extractive and destructive industries.
    Which has been mentioned elsewhere, that these companies and interests consider their “political donations” to be money well spent on influencing policy and outcomes of the parties who accept their $.

  9. This report only made public due to Greens and Centre Alliance actions in senate
    I guess the Lab environment guru Richo was a bit busy on Sky news to ask for it’s release before then and no-one else in either major party could really be bothered, could they. Even with an enormous risk of defrauding the commonwealth.

    Murray-Darling Basin water management faces ‘unique fraud risks’, audit reveals
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/21/murray-darling-basin-water-management-faces-unique-risks-audit-reveals

    “The commonwealth faces “unique fraud risks” arising from its management of the $3.2bn portfolio of environmental water in the Murray-Darling Basin, an internal audit has found.

    The audit, written by Ernst & Young, and previously withheld from the public, found the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder (CEWH) and the near $3.2bn worth of water it controls, was at risk of being defrauded by state agencies, individual officers within those agencies and private landholders.

    Despite finding serious risks to a major commonwealth asset, the report was only released through Senate processes instigated by the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young and the Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick.”

  12. From Twitter:
    Ryan Browne Verified account @rabrowne75

    Defense officials tell me Mattis went to the White House to discuss Syria & that he was livid after reading reports that Turkey’s Defense Minister threatened to kill US-backed Kurds & put them in ditches once the US withdrew. He was incensed at this notion of betrayal of an ally

    Brandon Friedman Verified account @BFriedmanDC

    Here is a thing politicians 8,000 miles away from the fighting have never understood in 15 years of fighting in Iraq and Syria: The U.S. Army considers the Kurdish peshmerga an extension of itself. Much like individual platoons and companies are loyal to their interpreters.

    Brandon Friedman Verified account @BFriedmanDC 30m30 minutes ago

    American soldiers and Kurdish peshmerga have fought and died together fighting Ba’athists and ISIS.

    The American people aren’t loyal to the Kurds. Elected officials aren’t loyal to the Kurds. But the Army is. And Mattis knows it. And Trump is going to have to deal with this now.

    I can see some push back from the troops on this, not that they will be able to do anything about it.

  13. The problem with eating Huskies is that their livers have massive amounts of Vitamin A.

    Mawson’s companion Xavier Mertz died from a Vitamin A overdose which produced liver failure and neurological symptoms.

    Not according to some British tabloids and the occasional British historian who still have not come to terms with the failings of their Antarctic hero’s.

  14. Quoll

    ‘This report only made public due to Greens and Centre Alliance actions in senate’

    Wow, how did they achieve that? I didn’t think they had the numbers…

  16. Quoll @ #307 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 10:28 am

    So why have a Greens political Party?
    ——————————
    Evidently because many many people, in Australia, and around the world, believe that the incumbents have been pretty much useless and often an impediment. Particularly when they receive millions and millions of dollars from these extractive and destructive industries.
    Which has been mentioned elsewhere, that these companies and interests consider their “political donations” to be money well spent on influencing policy and outcomes of the parties who accept their $.

    Not very pragmatic!

    You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.

  20. Steve777

    I met one of the Antarctic Huskies who was living out his retirement in Tassie. Smaller than I had imagined with a nice, quiet nature.

  21. But of course, the Greens aren’t an environmental party anymore. Buckingham belled that cat in his departure tantrum.

    The Greens are split three ways with their factions.

    The Tree Tories represented by Di Natalie
    The Comms represented by the NSW Branch
    The “fairies at the bottom of the garden” group who have been shafted by their Party betters and now have nothing to contribute but gesturism and barking at the moon about how unfair life is to them.

    The recent Victorian Election showed a massive protest swing. Yet, in this fertile environment, The Greens lost votes, seats and influence. They have no solutions and they are in danger of disappearing in to their belly buttons as they contemplate their demise.

    The Greens should re-brand as Naval Gazers Anonymous.

  22. Malcolm Farr

    John Howard said he was “agnostic” on climate change, which is like saying you don’t have a view as to whether gravity will smash you into the pavement should you step off a 20 stor(e)y building

  23. Wow, how did they achieve that? I didn’t think they had the numbers…
    ————————————
    They have functioning brains and understand the processes by which elected representatives of the Australian people can and should be finding out as much as possible about what is being done in the name of the people who elected them.
    Ignorance and laziness may be bliss in other parties

  25. Quoll @ #323 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 11:00 am

    Wow, how did they achieve that? I didn’t think they had the numbers…
    ————————————
    They have functioning brains and understand the processes by which elected representatives of the Australian people can and should be finding out as much as possible about what is being done in the name of the people who elected them.
    Ignorance and laziness may be bliss in other parties

    And fervent imaginations as to the reality of how it was achieved! 🙂

  26. Sceptic @ #306 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 2:23 pm

    Sorry if already posted..

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/salacious-judge-rebukes-buzzfeed-in-emma-husar-defamation-case-20181221-p50nm4.html

    But Justice Rares noted the article reported in its first paragraph that Ms Husar “bragged about who she was having sex with…according to allegations”.

    RELATED ARTICLE
    Emma Husar seeks special damages in BuzzFeed defamation case
    DEFAMATION NATION
    Emma Husar seeks special damages in BuzzFeed defamation case
    Add to shortlist
    He said the “fairly salacious” article “seems eminently capable” of conveying to readers the imputation as pleaded by Ms Husar’s lawyers.

    Justice Rares said that according to his “old-fashioned” understanding of the term, “slut” meant a person who engaged in casual sexual encounters without any emotional attachment.

    He said the article sounded “very much” like it was alleging Ms Husar had boasted about “sleep[ing] around” and said the imputation should not be struck out.

    This is looking to cost Alice Workman (plus those in the ABC that gave her an outlet) & Buzz Feed dearly

    ..and the ‘dark elements’ in NSW Labor walk away scot-free

  27. Simon² Katich® @ #275 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Upnorth, I suspect I have only eaten it once. In a Chinese ‘restaurant’ in Sofia.

    I wouldnt eat it again. Then again, I have never faced a 300 mile walk through blizzards hauling a sled on almost zero food without a tent while I watch the souls of my feet detach, my hair fall out and my nails drop off.

    Don’t eat the liver. Vitamin A poisoning is a bugger.
    Mawson remains my personal hero:

  29. lizzie

    I met one of the Antarctic Huskies who was living out his retirement in Tassie. Smaller than I had imagined with a nice, quiet nature.

    Was that down at Lonnavale, near Huonville?

  31. Quoll

    ‘That some here have previously claimed Richo as the great Lab guru and savior for the environment in Australia, seems to say much about how the so-called progressive half of the historical tweedledum-tweedledee duopoly see matters.’

    The Reds in the Greens are desperate to delude.
    Richo achieved more by himself for the environment than have 30 years of the Greens Party.

  33. One possible evolution is that the US declares some sort of Kurdish statelet zone in North-east Syria in which the US will rain death from the air if ‘the rules’ are broken.

  34. You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.
    ——————————–
    More verballing on PB how surprising
    Historically Aus governments have been useless or impediments until pushed
    May be that might change

    You do understand that most humans are capable of undertaking more than one thing?

    It is not about what you or I or anyone thinks, or who is bloviating on this blog.
    It is about the circumstances in which people, plants and animals have to live and endure from today on.
    A cabal of idiots here won’t change those circumstances either

    Not a single actual response of any significance to any of the many points or questions raised in numerous articles
    Cheers

  35. Quoll @ #331 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 3:16 pm

    You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.
    ——————————–
    More verballing on PB how surprising
    Historically Aus governments have been useless or impediments until pushed
    May be that might change

    You do understand that most humans are capable of undertaking more than one thing?

    It is not about what you or I or anyone thinks, or who is bloviating on this blog.
    It is about the circumstances in which people, plants and animals have to live and endure from today on.
    A cabal of idiots here won’t change those circumstances either

    Not a single actual response of any significance to any of the many points or questions raised in numerous articles
    Cheers

    Somewhere, a fairy is having a good cry!

  36. uring the final and tumultuous sitting week for 2018, senior Labor Party officials and strategists in Canberra found time for a debriefing on Daniel Andrews’ rout of the Victorian Liberal opposition at the November state election.

    Contrary to the public utterances from both sides at the time, the party’s research and post-mortem showed federal factors played a bigger role in the result than anyone had let on.

    “The feds were absolutely toxic down there,” said one participant in the meeting, attributing it to the spectre that the Liberal hard right, although a minority, had engineered the ouster of Malcolm Turnbull and was now pulling the strings in the Morrison government.

    It was kind of obvious during the campaign that federal factors were playing a role because Labor plastered Melbourne and beyond with billboards featuring a line-up of a brooding Peter Dutton, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison – alongside then-state Liberal leader Matthew Guy.

    “Turnbull was deliberately not there, Guy suffered by association,”‘ said the source.

    “Once we rolled that out, people saw it and thought ‘f— this’.”

    The billboard is referred to in Labor circles by a nasty pejorative, the “Mount Rushmore of f—wits”, and the ALP is preparing to use the tactic again in the NSW election scheduled for March 23.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/nsw-is-a-whole-aviary-of-chirping-canaries-for-the-liberals-20181219-h199r9

    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_620/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/9a675daa76af9a3e100038fe2190195200d5b67f

  39. No matter how they cut & spin it Trump is their Chief Commanding Officer and unless he gives an illegal order (say against international covenants etc {the US does this all the time by the way}) he is entitled to demand obedience to his orders. Just because some people do not like his orders is no excuse. The US (& UK, NZ, Canada, Australia and many other nations) have a military that is under command of a public office, not a military one.

  40. ‘Not a single actual response of any significance to any of the many points or questions raised in numerous articles…’

    Again, the self awareness thing.

  42. What’s all this palaver about Teh Greens being the only Left party in Oz and the only one you can vote for to protect the environment!?!

    Jeebus wept a river of tears! If we follow those ridiculous assertions to their illogical conclusion, the Earth will be a smoldering stone by the time it will actually take Teh Greens to take government! 😆

  43. ‘Quoll says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 3:16 pm

    You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.’

    There is real evidence for two sorts of approaches.

    The first is campaign-based NGOs working with the majors during election campaigns.
    This approach delivered such gems as Fraser Island, the Wet Tropics World Heritage, and saving the Franklin. Environmental power translated directly into real changes for the environment by leveraging off the two party vote.

    Then there is the second approach. The Greens Party forms. It locks up the environment vote. And it delivers precisely nothing for the environment except noise and self-gratulation. It campaigns for itself and against the only other environmental player in town – Labor. In this model the environmentalists are harvested by the Reds using classic front strategies. The Reds are there to destroy capitalism. They don’t know about the environment and they don’t care.

    Labor tacticians know that 80% of Greens Party prefs automatically go the Labor Party and that nothing they can do policy-wise will change this figure. Labor also knows that the Reds in the Greens have a huge history of bad faith dealings with the Labor Party. So there is no pointing in cutting campaign deals with the Greens. At all.

    Liberal tacticians know that the environmentalist vote is completely lost to them and over time they become more and more openly contemptuous of the environmental vote.

    The environmentalists have two options: The first is to switch directly to Labor with a view to influencing Labor environmental policies. The second is to channel their energies direct to the NGOs which cut campaign deals with Labor that will deliver specific environmental outcomes when Labor forms government.

  45. Justice Rares, was not it he that came down heavily in former speaker Slippers favour in the Federal Court against Brough and Poorleans main man.

  46. I am of the opinion that if these vicious rumours persist against an unnamed MP from the northern regions then George Christisian should ….. AGAIN THREATEN …. to cross the floor at the next possible opportunity.

  47. Boerwar @ #343 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    ‘Quoll says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 3:16 pm

    You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.’

    There is real evidence for two sorts of approaches.

    The first is campaign-based NGOs working with the majors during election campaigns.
    This approach delivered such gems as Fraser Island, the Wet Tropics World Heritage, and saving the Franklin. Environmental power translated directly into real changes for the environment by leveraging off the two party vote.

    Then there is the second approach. The Greens Party forms. It locks up the environment vote. And it delivers precisely nothing for the environment except noise and self-gratulation. It campaigns for itself and against the only other environmental player in town – Labor. In this model the environmentalists are harvested by the Reds using classic front strategies. The Reds are there to destroy capitalism. They don’t know about the environment and they don’t care.

    Labor tacticians know that 80% of Greens Party prefs automatically go the Labor Party and that nothing they can do policy-wise will change this figure. Labor also knows that the Reds in the Greens have a huge history of bad faith dealings with the Labor Party. So there is no pointing in cutting campaign deals with the Greens. At all.

    Liberal tacticians know that the environmentalist vote is completely lost to them and over time they become more and more openly contemptuous of the environmental vote.

    The environmentalists have two options: The first is to switch directly to Labor with a view to influencing Labor environmental policies. The second is to channel their energies direct to the NGOs which cut campaign deals with Labor that will deliver specific environmental outcomes when Labor forms government.

    Well articulated.

    It ain’t Rocket Lettuce!

  49. Quoll @ #334 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 11:16 am

    You admit that it has been more beneficial for the environment when they didn’t exist and the pressure came from grass roots action.
    ——————————–
    More verballing on PB how surprising
    Historically Aus governments have been useless or impediments until pushed
    May be that might change

    You do understand that most humans are capable of undertaking more than one thing?

    It is not about what you or I or anyone thinks, or who is bloviating on this blog.
    It is about the circumstances in which people, plants and animals have to live and endure from today on.
    A cabal of idiots here won’t change those circumstances either

    Not a single actual response of any significance to any of the many points or questions raised in numerous articles
    Cheers

    As Boerwar points out historically Australian Governments have been more useless since the Greens entered Parliament.

    You can see it, you basically said it, but you won’t accept it.

    If the Greens were effective I would have no problem giving them my vote, but they haven’t been so I won’t.

    They aren’t helping the environment as a political Party.

  50. Boerwar
    I will send that to a Green voting former colleague I lunched with other day.

    A former ALP member he is very anti Labor over Adani and asylum seekers.

    When I asked why the Greens attacked labor so much instead of trying to work with a party that might actually be in government he just shrugged.

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