Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Vic,
    Putin runs a Kleptocracy. Trump wants to run one. Xi would love to own Australia’s natural resources and the companies we pay our hard-earned to. The Coalition are here to help, as long as they get a piece of the action. The Corporates are their co-conspirators.

    Of course their interests lie in dismantling our democracy!

  9. I’m willing to bet thi ‘reconciliation’ between the party and Rudd was engineered by Shorten as a final statement of unity that will contrast with the govt in the extreme


  12. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, December 18, 2018 at 10:17 am

    Frednk

    Used to be the Westgate bridge.

    Yes; they put a fence up; stopped that; they had to move; not as high; lower success rate.

  13. jenauthor @ #158 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 10:43 am

    I’m willing to bet thi ‘reconciliation’ between the party and Rudd was engineered by Shorten as a final statement of unity that will contrast with the govt in the extreme

    Agreed. And to answer those who still seem to think Shorten ‘engineered’ Rudd’s downfall.

    I’m afraid Rudd did that all by himself.

  14. Rudd is going around now saying Shorten wasn’t a plotter because he wants Shorten to back him for the UN gig. That is what’s behind all this stuff.

  19. It’s amusing that despite all the leaking and destabilisation that Rudd supposedly did to Gillard that the Caucus removed her and brought Rudd back.

  21. I agree with C@tmomma.

    It would be very surprising if both Russia and China have not been heavily exploiting social media to influence politics and broader society in the democracies, and with considerable success. Best to simply assume that they not only have been, but have every intention on expanding their programs, and making them a permanent feature of their statecraft.

    Worth noting that both countries have taken major steps to isolate and control the internet within their own borders. Presumably a pre-emptive move to make sure they are protected from comparable retaliation from the west when we finally figure out what has been going on.

  22. I’m sure that China are doing all sorts of things to influence politics here but to assume Russia is doing the same is not credible. They have no interest in us, our region, or in any thing that happens here.

  23. BK

    How did the ‘reno’ go?

    Pope’s cartoon today gives Labor a brilliant line of reply against Morrison and Frydenberg, both now and next April (if the election is in May). Something along the lines of –

    “Mr.Morrison is now playing the role of Sugar Daddy, desperately trying to win the favour of voters just before an election, after ignoring them for the five years that this government has been focused on themselves and their own internal fights”.

    No further reference or context needed.

  24. The Broad story almost defies belief.

    A politican who pays the fare for a trip to Hong Kong? And a Nat at that.

    Surely he just needed to have a chat to some colleagues about how to organise some “official business”.

  27. ****Warning response to troll****

    nath says:
    Tuesday, December 18, 2018 at 10:56 am

    I’m sure that China are doing all sorts of things to influence politics here but to assume Russia is doing the same is not credible. They have no interest in us, our region, or in any thing that happens here.

    Out of interest do you live in Moscow or St Petersbourg?

  28. I’d love to know why you think I’m a troll? Apart from just going along with the pack. I never go with a pack. If a pack forms around me, I move away.

  29. nath says:
    Tuesday, December 18, 2018 at 10:56 am
    I’m sure that China are doing all sorts of things to influence politics here but to assume Russia is doing the same is not credible. They have no interest in us, our region, or in any thing that happens here.

    How do you know?

    It’s likely that Russia is interested in Australia, which is a strategic ally and political enabler of the US, an economic complement to China and Japan, remains part of the post-imperial UK diaspora, and is a political actor in the Pacific. There are anti-US voices in Australia. It would make sense for Russia to cultivate this opinion.

  31. The only interest Russia would have in Australia is a very specific goal of getting intel on the US from Australian sources. Which was also the goal during the USSR. But to assume that Russia is interested in undermining Australian democracy or any other vague goal is a bit ludicrous.

  32. The merriam-webster definition:

    ‘broad-minded adjective
    broad-mind·​ed | \ˈbrȯd-ˈmīn-dəd,
    -ˌmīn-\
    Definition of broad-minded

    1 : tolerant of varied views

    2 : inclined to condone minor departures from conventional behavior’

  33. Susan Metcalfe@susanamet

    “While he claimed to be a victim of a fake Tinder profile last year… the Nationals were made aware Mr Broad was again active on the app as recently as May this year… Identical language was used on his “sugar daddy” profile in the fresh allegations”
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nationals-mp-andrew-broad-quits-assistant-minister-role-after-texts/news-story/309c6b538fb8d6f6edc3b1b79cbecd6b …

    So was he lying back then in 2017? Was this a real profile? He claimed that the false profile was being used to discredit him.

  37. Victoria @ #109 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    BB/Sohar

    Scroll on by.

    The Trump Brexit shit show is far more consequential and mind boggling than Morrison and co.
    It is informing our own politics.
    It is far more interesting than anything our politics is doing at present

    Thanks Victoria. I value your contributions on the state of the US, and the Trump saga in particular, very highly.

  41. Barney in Go Dau

    Gotta assume those ‘reds’ are still packed under our beds as they are so damn useful for the smear opportunities. Just ask Menzies.

  42. P1@10:52am
    Andrew Broad went to Hong Kong to meet a broad
    Complained to AFP after he came back
    Paid his expenses back only after he is caught
    What a naughty boy Nat boy is

  44. The nationals can’t be sexist because both of their female MPs are ministers.

    As Amy Remeikis points out, there’s a problem there.

    But I’m sure both of the female voters who support the nationals will forgive them.

  45. I 🙂 this new disclaimer in the Australian. Comes from the article about Broad with the Broad abroad.

    The Australian is not suggesting the allegations are true only that they have been made.

  46. Sky News Australia
    ‏
    Verified account

    @SkyNewsAust
    27s28 seconds ago
    More
    Man overboard!

    #BREAKING: The @australian reports Nationals MP Andrew Broad won’t contest the next election amid ‘sugar babes’ scandal.

  50. Broad has conceded defeat. Excellent. Maybe an Independent can get up in Mallee….one less seat for the Nationals.

    As one of my very old friends is apt to say, when seeking an explanation for unusual or unexpected behaviour by a bloke, “cherchez la femme.”

    There must be more to this than meets the eye.

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