BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. Psyclaw @ #1738 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 3:33 pm

    Ch 9 GEM is presently showing a 1966 move The Appaloosa, starring a very young and good looking Marlon Brando.

    Maybe Kay Jay is watching

    I have been watching the cricket. I turned over to have a look at The Appaloosa and saw a scruffy looking (Marlon Brando – who knew ❓ ) bearded dude on screen and switched back to the cricket.

    Dammit – I’ll have another look. Rotten Tomatoes – not recommended. The usual evil Mexican bandit chief etc.

    Over and out. 🎬 — 🏏

  2. TPOF

    The NBN sent someone out to have a look and the last I heard (from Optus) is that the NBN will upgrade it very shortly (a time period I could get nothing specific on).

    Did they say what they are upgrading? Node? Cable? Exchange?

  3. SK

    Did they say what they are upgrading? Node? Cable? Exchange?

    _________________________________
    No. I suspect it was just to get rid of me. As it is, it is copper wire strung from a pole to my house. I suspect it would just be more reliable copper wire or some sort of fix at the node or between the node and my house. Whatever it is, I’ll follow up in the new year. It annoys me in principle.

  5. Troy Bramston
    ‏
    Verified account

    “In his opening speech to Labor’s 48th national conference, Bill Shorten could not look more authoritative, more sure of his vision for the country or more confident of leading Labor to victory at the next election” @australian #auspol

  6. And legislating an Environment Act, along with a statutory Environment Protection Agency whilst the progressive forces have the majority in the next term, will make it oh so much harder for the troglodytes to get rid of it when they are eventually back.

    Look at the EPBC Act from the Hawke years in 1999 – it has stood the test of time, and stopped, delayed and/or improved numerous attempts over the years for freeloaders to rape the environment.

  7. TPOF

    The original Labor plan was FTTP (optic fibre to the home). Turnbull bastardised the project by claiming that the existing copper could do the same job. In fact he promised 50 Mbit to everybody with a landline by Dec 2016.

    So the upshot is that if you are on FTTN (optic fibre to the node), then the speed of your connection depends on the length of copper wire between you and the node (a big green box somewhere in your area). Optic fibre connections can run at gigabit speeds out to 18km or so.

    The longer the distance, the slower the connection. If you are beyond about 800 metres from the node then you will never get better than 50 Mbit, no matter what anybody does. Speed drops off rapidly after that.

    About the only thing you can do to improve your connection is to remove all extraneous telephone wiring inside your house and have the wire go straight to the modem with no joins.

    As to the NBN upgrading anything, that is a lie. They are effectively broke once their loans run out and will be running insolvent for the forseeable future. There will be no money for anything unless a government injects it. The suggested cost of bringing this abortion up to the standards of a modern network, run an additional $10-15 billion but may be much more since the NBN is one of the LNP’s most secretive projects.

  10. I suspect it was just to get rid of me.

    I suspect you are right.
    ’round here they told everybody their NBN speeds were slow because with many people still on ADSL, they had to slow the NBN to stop the system over heating.

    I kid you not.

    The time came when everyone had moved to NBN and guess what… no speed increase. Recently they blamed winter and water in the pipes.

    I kid you not.

  11. When your nation has a current account deficit, fiscal deficits add financial wealth to the domestic private sector. Fiscal surpluses, on the other hand, delete financial wealth from the domestic private sector.

    Both Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten are committing our national government to economically illiterate policies. By aiming for a fiscal surplus in the context of a current account deficit, they will either cause private sector spending to fall, which will lead to a recession and rising unemployment, or they will cause the private sector to increase its already very high level of indebtedness. Credit-fuelled private sector growth is not sustainable; only the currency issuer can deficit spend indefinitely with no solvency issues.

  12. TPOF @ #1751 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 3:50 pm

    SK

    Did they say what they are upgrading? Node? Cable? Exchange?

    _________________________________
    No. I suspect it was just to get rid of me. As it is, it is copper wire strung from a pole to my house. I suspect it would just be more reliable copper wire or some sort of fix at the node or between the node and my house. Whatever it is, I’ll follow up in the new year. It annoys me in principle.

    Didn’t NBN Co say they were going to do more FTTC (ie to the curb or building etc) and less FTTN.

    Might be that?

  15. “When your nation has a current account deficit, fiscal deficits add financial wealth to the domestic private sector. Fiscal surpluses, on the other hand, delete financial wealth from the domestic private sector.”

    It is surprising really young Nic hasn’t been invited to lead the Treasury department.

  16. Not a bad article from Tony Wright –

    Don’t blow this – not now: Bill Shorten’s message at Labor’s quasi election launch

    It was more election campaign launch than national conference gee-up.

    All the elements were there.

    The signage: A Fair Go for Australia; the anxious, jangled nerves when protesters invaded the stage, causing a false start for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten; and then, Shorten’s build-up to the announcement of what he called “the biggest national housing program since the Second World War”.

    There was Shorten’s choice of the poet of the people, Henry Lawson, to wrap his party in history and hope.

    “It was way back in 1891, the year our party was born, Henry Lawson spoke of our continent as ‘a garden full of promise’,” said Shorten. “And it’s always been Labor – our party and the movement – that makes good on that promise.”

    And the rousing, determinedly confident words at the end of his speech to the faithful: “We are united. We are determined. And we are ready. Read to serve, ready to lead, ready to govern. Ready to deliver: A fair go for Australia.”

    All very Labor. All very election campaign.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-blow-this-not-now-bill-shorten-s-message-at-labor-s-quasi-election-launch-20181216-p50mkn.html

  17. poroti

    Thanks for fixing that link. I have finally worked out how to do outline – opening a link in an incognito / private window then quickly copying that address in the address bar before it changes to a paywalled one, then pasting that into outline.

    It is a very interesting article. About this time last year I was talking to someone from a right wing think tank. They were defending Joyce’s decision to relocate a government department at great expense to his own electorate.

    Basically they were saying the answer was this sort of forced decentralisation and that companies etc needed to be encouraged to go to rural areas. I said the reason most don’t is because they want the availability of diverse workers and close connections to other companies.

    So then I said why didn’t their think tank take their own good advice and shift to a regional area? And lo and behold – there were myriad reasons : Melbourne was where their ‘high value’ members lived, it was where the organisation needed to be in order to be close to those they dealt with and sought to influence etc etc

    So basically decentralisation was a great idea for everyone else! And if it took taxpayers money to prop up rural conservative seats so be it!!

  18. Last year NBN said we were getting FTTC. Couple of weeks ago green boxes with cooling fans started popping up all over the place. Now we’re down for FFTN.

  20. Dave at 4pm

    Didn’t NBN Co say they were going to do more FTTC (ie to the curb or building etc) and less FTTN.

    Might be that?

    ________________________________

    I’d be pretty sure it’s not that. NBNCo won’t put an extra cent in that they don’t have to and that is a major upgrade from FTTN. I suspect it is just a quick fix if anything at all.

  21. It is surprising really young Nic hasn’t been invited to lead the Treasury department.

    _______________________________________

    This government does have a record of posting ideologues with no idea of the real world to the post.

  25. “Shorten presented in a relatively uncritical light.”

    Not her perfect beloved Malcolm, but a lot better than the muppets running the LNP yeah?

  28. No conference agreement to increase the Newstart payment
    Katharine Murphy Katharine Murphy
    One of the conference flash points, as we’ve alerted you to, has been whether or not the conference will agree to an increase in the Newstart payment. Left-faction delegate Darcy Byrne has been signalling for some months he would bring a motion to the floor arguing for an increase.

    Given there’s been a motion drafted, there have been a range of discussions over the past few days. It’s been pretty obvious that the leadership did not want to be locked into an increase, given the fiscal implications. Increasing the payment would cost billions.

    Given the reluctance of the leadership to go there, there will be no conference commitment to increase the payment.

    The conference will, instead, agree to undertake a review into the payment within 18 months. I’m told the agreed motion will also commit the party to consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit.

  29. guytaur @ #1581 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:01 am

    This tweets sums up my view on political reporting too.

    @LeenonLee

    Just worked out what annoys me about current political reporting. It is continuously framed in what it means for party factions. No analysis for what a policy actually means for us, the general population. I don’t care if the left or right are appeased. #auspol #Laborconf18

    I understand why the media does this insider stuff. However its the policy that voters want to know about. Thats why the vaudeville protests will run. Its the issues stupid. To paraphrase Bill Clinton.

    But the problem for this Government has been getting policy through their own Party room, so it’s completely understandable. 🙂

  32. The agreed compromise amendment on Newstart is:

    Labor is committed to a social security system which keeps people out of poverty, whether they are unemployed or in retirement.

    That is why the previous Labor government undertook a review of the age pension and increased the rate of the pension so that Australians could have a decent life in retirement.

    Labor notes that after a quarter of a century with no increase to the rate of Newstart payments, the level of income for unemployed Australians is shamefully low by international standards.

    Labor will urgently complete a review into the inadequacy of Newstart payments and make recommendations within the first 18 months of government, on how best to address this. The review should include broad consultation and surveying of unemployed Australians about how the low rate of Newstart impacts on their health, ability to re-enter employment and to afford basic necessities, with the responses to be publicly reported.

    Kicking the can down the road.

    #review
    #consultation

  34. “Kicking the can down the road.”

    You can try and bring the country with you, or just assume they are already there. Just assuming they are already there didn’t work well with the price on carbon, I seen no reason to assume it would work well here.

  35. This is disappointing.

    The conference will, instead, agree to undertake a review into the payment within 18 months. I’m told the agreed motion will also commit the party to consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit.

    How many people will starve or be evicted in the 18 months before a review even begins, let alone the time before it releases its findings.

    And what the fuck does “consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit” even mean?

    On the other side of the coin, they’ll deliver “stronger budget surpluses”.

    Very disappointing.

  37. Scotty the Statesman…. our neighbours not happy

    “The strongly worded statement from Malaysia contrasts sharply with the muted initial response from Indonesia, and underscores the fact that Canberra’s decision has put Australia’s allies, trade partners and neighbours off side.

    “Malaysia strongly opposes the decision by the government of Australia to recognise West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,” the Malaysian foreign ministry statement said.
    Advertisement

    “Malaysia firmly believes that this announcement, made before the settlement of a two-state solution, is premature and a humiliation to the Palestinians and their struggle for the right to self-determination.

    “Malaysia reiterates its long-standing position that a two-state solution, in which the Palestinians and the Israelis live side by side in peace, is the only viable solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Malaysia will continue to work closely with all partners to find a just, comprehensive and lasting solution to the conflict.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/malaysian-government-slams-australia-s-west-jerusalem-decision-20181216-p50mko.html

  40. The Greens announced today that in their eternal quest for irrelevance, they will continue to hector Shorten and Labour for another three years.

  42. Dan Gulberry @ #1780 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:54 pm

    This is disappointing.

    The conference will, instead, agree to undertake a review into the payment within 18 months. I’m told the agreed motion will also commit the party to consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit.

    How many people will starve or be evicted in the 18 months before a review even begins, let alone the time before it releases its findings.

    And what the fuck does “consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit” even mean?

    On the other side of the coin, they’ll deliver “stronger budget surpluses”.

    Very disappointing.

    Yes the ‘can’t afford it’ line doesn’t go with the ‘stronger surpluses’ line. It’s a massive contradiction

  43. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 10:11 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #1412 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:57 am

    …

    …

    As for Jehoshuah’s date of birth, some of the best minds throughout the centuries have estimated that it was on or around January 7th. Just because you didn’t know that doesn’t mean that no-one knows it.

    …

    Some of the best minds throughout the centuries have tried to estimate the year of his birth and there is no certainty in that.

    “on or around”

    Is the 7 of July “on or around”?
    *****************************
    The 7th of July is an awesome date, exceptionally wonderful people are born on the 7th of July, even if I do say so myself…

  44. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 4:58 pm

    Yes, Mea culpa on the EPBC timing. Robert Hill was one of the Wets, and would not be allowed in today’s Liberal Party’

    Indeed. Along with the multi-billion dollar Natural Heritage Trust, Liberal Minister Hill achieved far more for the environment than tens of thousands of blathering Greens have done in the past 30 years.

  45. Dan G

    I’m told the agreed motion will also commit the party to consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit.

    It wouldn’t take very long to get the evidence on that. ACOSS probably knows facts already.
    Just raise the bloody thing a little immediately, then do the consultation.

  46. lizzie @ #1790 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    Dan G

    I’m told the agreed motion will also commit the party to consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit.

    It wouldn’t take very long to get the evidence on that. ACOSS probably knows facts already.
    Just raise the bloody thing a little immediately, then do the consultation.

    They’re on a roll. Nothing for newstart recipients and cuts to new immigrant welfare…. but be grateful for we’ll have stronger surpluses. Neo-lib bastardry.

  48. The Greens do not have an open conferences.
    The Greens will not form government.
    The Greens today once again displayed their impotence and irrelevance.
    At least they got one thing right. Labor policy matters; Green policy doesn’t amount to a hill of beans, something for Boerwar to laugh at gives it a small value I suppose.
    Interrupting Bill on stage is not going to influence Labor policy; becoming a member and pressing you views might.

  49. Dan Gulberry

    “consulting unemployed people about the practical impact of trying to get by on such a low benefit”

    You would think a Labor Party would not need to do that and would already be full bottle on conditions for workers and unemployed people.

  50. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
    Comment #1790

    The 7th of July is an awesome date, exceptionally wonderful people are born on the 7th of July, even if I do say so myself…

    Audio – roar of the greasepaint – smell of the ….

    Shout – 📢More – 📢 more – tel me 📢more 🔊🔊

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