BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. FMD

    Their ABC has run across the screen for the whole speech the shit about the Adani virtue signalling wanking by Rex’s mates. Says a lot about the ABC when really important things are being talked about by Bill Shorten, this is all their ABC can think is important about this speech.

  2. Entire greens existence (when not destroying Australian action on climate change): cheap stunts and pot shots at labor.

    One labor pot shot at greens – green sheeples: Bill taking a cheap shot at the greens dirty politics!

  3. Labor appointments to Vice-Regal Office:
    Baron Denman
    Baron Foster
    Post Statutes of Westminster:
    Isaac Isaacs
    Duke of Gloucester
    Billy McKell
    John Kerr
    Bill Hayden
    William Deane
    Quentin Bryce

    Nary a military chappie amongst them (possible exception of the Duke)

  4. Dan Gulberry

    “Jehoshua ben Joseph (Jesus the Christ) was actually born on January 7th. The early Christians moved the celebration of his birthday so as not to attract the attention of the Romans, who would’ve sent them to the Colosseum for “entertainment”.
    ——

    How can you write such rot. And writen so emphatically.

    “Christmas” was not a public celebration in the early church. Christianity was a proscribed religion. There were no public “celebrations”.

    I don’t understand what the big deal is about peoples who became Christian incorporated their traditional practices into their Christianity e.g.
    Germanic people incorporated their traditional folk/religious (yuletide, Easter). How can a people who maintain their traditions be said to “appropriate” it?

    As far as i am concerned it proves nothing.

  5. WWP

    I have not caught all the comments. However some Labor people saying its Green protestors not Labor protestors is a new myth.

    Common Sense to get through security Labor members are first cab off the rank.

    I don’t know about others but I have praised how Mr Shorten handled it.

    Meanwhile Mr Shorten continues to put in some policy hard yards in his speech.
    Stop the Green v Labor war and look at what is being announced.

    TPOF is right this is an election launch
    A very good one

  6. DaretoTread @ #1516 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:03 am

    That is why as a non christian I have no problem with celebrating Xmas.

    Except of course that December 25 isn’t the winter solstice in the southern hemisphere.

    Perhaps Aussies (and Kiwis and South Americans, etc) should celebrate Xmas on June 21.

    Why not celebrate both solstice. Never knock back a reason to celebrate.

  7. Ewin Hannan

    Verified account

    @EwinHannan
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    .@billshortenmp says a Labor government will pass a new Environment Act and create a new Commonwealth Environmental Protection Agency to ‘preserve our oceans, rivers, coasts and bushland and to protect the native species that call Australia home.’ #LabConf18

  8. Guytaur i am in Tassie and the only focus of unions here is public service pay rises……does not sit well with me when i see low skilled staff in the community sector struggling

  9. “Stop the Green v Labor war and look at what is being announced.”

    Lolz. I’ll stop the green v labor war commentary a couple of days after the greens stop putting 99% of their effort in to cheap shots at labor, they are the green abbotts.

  10. Greensborough Growler @ #1558 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 11:36 am

    Ewin Hannan

    Verified account

    @EwinHannan
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    .@billshortenmp says a Labor government will pass a new Environment Act and create a new Commonwealth Environmental Protection Agency to ‘preserve our oceans, rivers, coasts and bushland and to protect the native species that call Australia home.’ #LabConf18

    I wonder who he’ll appoint as the head of the EPA…?.

  11. WWP

    Look at the polls. Labor is in the driving seat unless it stuffs it up by being distracted into playing on the Greens political turf. Mr Shorten isn’t Labor people could learn a thing or two.

  12. BTW

    The only problem I have about the ABC news ticker is not doing some of the big policy accnoncement headlines.

    It was a good speech from Mr Shorten. Made easier by some very good policy announcements.

  13. BTW

    The only problem I have about the ABC news ticker is not doing some of the big policy accnoncement headlines.

    It was a good speech from Mr Shorten. Made easier by some very good policy announcements.

  14. Which part of “Freedom on the Wallaby”?

    Hopefully not :

    We’ll make the tyrants feel the sting

    O’ those that they would throttle;

    They needn’t say the fault is ours

    If blood should stain the wattle!”

  15. rob harrisVerified account@rharris334

    A staffer for Nationals senator Barry O’Sullivan texted journalist Annika Smethurst, calling her a “feminist c*nt” and hoped her family died of a “painful cancer”. I’m told O’Sullivan refusing to sack him as he’s apologised … he’ll likely get a big $$ payout come May.

  16. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    19m19 minutes ago
    On the day Shorten talks about affordable housing & access to education Morrison appoints a former general to replace another former general as GG. And Morrison comes from a marketing background…. #auspol

  17. Great session. Shorten’s speech was great. I was in amongst the media pack. They typed away as he spoke. They have gone now Shorten has finished. Saw Katherine Murphy.

    BTW it was that other media over there who tore into PMJG.

  18. Confessions

    “The coalition staffer who abused Smethurst works for Barry O’Sullivan.”
    —-

    What is this a reference to, mai i ask?

  19. “On the day Shorten talks about affordable housing & access to education Morrison appoints a former general to replace another former general as GG. And Morrison comes from a marketing background…. #auspol”

    If the very blue blooded conservative, Nazis are socialists, PvO is picking on Morrison’s awful choice it is much worse than even I thought.

  20. Great announcement.

    Our branch hosted one of the LEAN reps who have been pushing for these changes. He emphasised the power of grassroots members in pushing for revamped environmental laws.

    Brilliant to feel that our branch had at least some small role in this!

  21. Adani, a Greens fantasy
    Logic says if the world produces 7.5 million tonnes of coal per year & falling year on year
    Australia 500 million tonnes per year
    Adani supposedly 60 million tonnes per year ( utter rubbish of course)
    We are talking about 0.8% of world production, world production fell 800 million tonnes between 2014 & 2016
    Adani isn’t even a pimple on the pimple of an elephant.

    Greens clutching at straws again or should I say coal

    Labor is right to ignore the pimple it will go away by itself, unless the Greens scratch & infect it.

  22. This tweets sums up my view on political reporting too.

    @LeenonLee

    Just worked out what annoys me about current political reporting. It is continuously framed in what it means for party factions. No analysis for what a policy actually means for us, the general population. I don’t care if the left or right are appeased. #auspol #Laborconf18

    I understand why the media does this insider stuff. However its the policy that voters want to know about. Thats why the vaudeville protests will run. Its the issues stupid. To paraphrase Bill Clinton.

  23. What happened to the Adani and Asylum seeker protesters ?
    _______________________________

    They were locked in a windowless room and forced to watch Scott Morrison’s press conference this morning – on endless loop.

  24. Desbundar: Portuguese for shedding one’s inhibitions and getting down to having fun.

    Mbuki mvuki: The Bantu word for “shaking off your clothes to dance more freely”.

    Yes! 🙂

  25. I will add I would prefer the ABC to be showing the live feed of the conference on their news channel not repeating the protest at the start of the speech on high rotation.

    Yes the protest will be news but so should the policy announcement and the debate. Too much colour and movement coverage makes for inaccurate reporting.

  26. zoomster @ #1578 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 11:59 am

    Great announcement.

    Our branch hosted one of the LEAN reps who have been pushing for these changes. He emphasised the power of grassroots members in pushing for revamped environmental laws.

    Brilliant to feel that our branch had at least some small role in this!

    It’s important the right person is appointed as the EPA head. Preferably someone completely independent of fossil fuel corporations and unions.

  27. guytaur @ #1586 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 12:04 pm

    I will add I would prefer the ABC to be showing the live feed of the conference on their news channel not repeating the protest at the start of the speech on high rotation.

    Yes the protest will be news but so should the policy announcement and the debate. Too much colour and movement coverage makes for inaccurate reporting.

    It was completely peaceful and topical. This is a conference about ideas after all.

  28. Barry Tucker

    Beware of latest update/download or install updates message claimed to be from Mozilla Firefox. It wiped the program from my computer. Had to download & install again–lost all saved links, history & bookmarks now.

  29. @sallyrugg tweets

    Marriage equality protesters disrupted the ALP national conference in 2011.

    3 yrs later it was their policy platform + the party were bound to vote in its favour. The year after that, Shorten went to the election saying SSM was the very first thing they’d do in government.

  30. Septic

    We are talking about 0.8% of world production, world production fell 800 million tonnes between 2014 & 2016
    Adani isn’t even a pimple on the pimple of an elephant.

    Interesting you chose to use one of the climate change deniers favourite lines about why Australia does not really have to do any thing.

  31. OC, he referred to ‘the garden full of promise’ – and gave examples of how Labor initiatives has kept this

    Freedom on the Wallaby

    A song by Henry Lawson
    Australia’s a big country an’ Freedom’s humping bluey
    An’ Freedom’s on the Wallaby Oh dont you hear her cooey
    She’s just begun to boomerang she’ll knock the tyrants silly
    She’s going to light another fire and boil another billy

    Our fathers toiled for bitter bread while loafers thrived beside them
    But food to eat and clothes to wear their native land denied them
    And so they left their native land in spite of their devotion
    And so they came or if they stole were sent across the ocean

    Then Freedom couldn’t stand the glare of Royalty’s regalia
    She left the loafers where they were and came out to Australia
    But now across the mighty main the chains have come to bind her
    She little thought to see again the wrongs she left behind her

    Our parents toiled to make a home hard grubbing twas and clearing
    They wasn’t troubled much by lords when they was pioneering
    But now that we have made the land a garden full of promise
    Old Greed must crook his dirty hand and come and take it from us

    So we must fly a rebel flag as others did before us
    And we must sing a rebel song and join in rebel chorus
    We’ll make the tyrants feel the sting of those that they would throttle
    They needn’t say the fault is ours if blood should stain the wattle

  32. Great speech…. the writers are to be congratulated. Shorten is in good hands (as far as speeches are concerned) for the upcoming contest…

  33. poroti:

    Are you still satisfied with your NBN service?

    I’ve got to make the switch next year as the ADSL2 service is being turned off.

  34. TPOF one thing that isn’t often discussed about the Adani mine is the adverse effect it may have on Hunter Valley coal mines. I have absolutely no problem with the Adani mine being opposed, even if you use the cheap tactic of comparing it to world production. Adani is a crook and should not be doing business here.

  35. don @ #1508 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #1453 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1436 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:11 am

    Is the 7 of July “on or around”? 🙂

    WTF?!?!?! The 8th of July is on or around the 7th, so is the 6th. The 7th is their best estimate.

    No….. wait……..

    DG said originally:

    Jehoshua ben Joseph (Jesus the Christ) was actually born on January 7th. The early Christians moved the celebration of his birthday so as not to attract the attention of the Romans, who would’ve sent them to the Colosseum for “entertainment”.

    How did it suddenly get transferred to the 7th of July?

    Shows how cactus the whole date thing is. And the 7th July has the advantage of being in summer, as I implied earlier. 😉

    Adults having a serious discussion on a political blog, and filling a need

  36. NSW Governors are selected in rotation from Military, Law, Clergy and Public life eg Medicine or University, I don’t think Governors can be business leaders

    I imagine Australian governor generals are selected from a similiar restricted pool of candidates

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