The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.
Holiday reading:
• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.
• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.
Where’s the comcar. 😆
Confessions, my ADSL service died a number of years ago because the copper rotted.
Been on 3G/4G ever since.
I’m being offered satellite and I’m not exactly rural.
Fuck that.
Cud:
It’s FTTN on offer in my street.
Julie acting as ballast, most useful she’s been in years
Sorry about that Confessions. Gonna have to be ripped up and replaced.
Shorten was as usual unimpressive in his delivery. You would think for 180k that Xavier would have produced something better.
Not sure Julie and National Party Deputy leader and Minister for Sport Brigit McKenzie really were ballast
The real crew were on the other side of the hull, eating their lunch out of ear shot of their conversation
There was a 3 min 41 sec promo played before Bill Shorten’s entrance, here it is
https://mobile.twitter.com/AustralianLabor/status/1074087995186106368/video/1
Confessions @ #1602 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 12:19 pm
I have FTTN with internode I took the 50 option and get 48 and never had a problem with internode ($65 with phone)
Whisper yes some people get nearly what they paid for. Its a pity that FTTN has no upgrade path other than to be scrapped and replaced.
Sceptic @ #1550 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 10:59 am
Which does not actually make an argument for or against stopping Adani.
I found Shorten inspiring and he even managed the feat of looking patiently good humoured as the protestors were removed from the stage.
Contrast that with our motor mouthed Prime Minister who sounds like a desperate failing door to door salesman selling some expensive nasty cleaning product that’s going to disappoint or poison you in very quick time
NSW Governors are selected in rotation from Military, Law, Clergy and Public life eg Medicine or University, I don’t think Governors can be business leaders
I don’t think so.
Since the 1920s they have all been chappies who rose to prominence in the military with 2 exceptions appointed by Bob Carr – Samuels (judge) and Bashir (psychiatrist)
Whisper:
Are you with Telstra?
guytaur says:
Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 12:09 pm
@sallyrugg tweets
Marriage equality protesters disrupted the ALP national conference in 2011.
3 yrs later it was their policy platform + the party were bound to vote in its favour. The year after that, Shorten went to the election saying SSM was the very first thing they’d do in government.
________________________________________
Actually sort of proves my point about virtue signalling. It’s not as if Adani should go ahead and refugees should stay on Nauru and Manus in mentally destructive circumstances. A lot of work is being done not only by protesters, but by many others (including conservative leaning cross-benchers) to free the refugees, in particular, and to have Adani die its natural and inevitable death. It’s not inevitable – just like marriage equality was not inevitable – but it does nothing other than to give the participants some sort of moral virtue orgasm.
And, by distracting from the broad-based policy announcements of a broad-based political party, it creates the small risk (in the current circumstances) of reducing that party’s ability to win office and actually do something about these measures. Remember, there is only one party that is enthusiastically cheering on the building of a pointless coal mine in Queensland and the brutalisation of refugees in New Guinea and Nauru.
Didn’t think much of the video. Way too complicated and too layered. Was it meant to be subliminal?
The fed gov is sticking with the whole Washminster thing, as in repressive democracy.
All about the money/ pollyTICs/ media spin cycle.
It could have gone to COAG for further direct democracy, enabled by a digital id for safe and secure transactions, as in advance Australia, fair.
Bring in popular initiatives, one person/ one vote instead of the whole 2PP thing, as well as recall provisions.
Offshored head of state, tick (though if Charles does the quaint islands off the coast of EUrope, either Harry or William can handle Canada or Australia/ New Zealand).
Surely a productivity dividend could have been imposed on the GG, by rotating one of the state governors through, a year at a time.
Sort the states and territories thing.
Similarly, the PM could be abolished and a state premier rotated through. (Switzerland does much gov at the canton or commune level …)
A federal ICAC (rather than toothless NIC).
Campaign finance reforrm (pollyTICs either get paid by lobbyists, or taxpayers, but not both).
Useful FoI.
Mandatory and binding referendums for anything over x dollars, y people, z levels of gov not part of a published election program. Same for ADF adventures, after a vote in security cabinet, parliament, have a double majority required mandatory and binding referendum over adventures more than 1000 kms from Australia’s economic zone or territorial waters. (Even Tonicchio talked of verbal and written promises post 2013, well after non core and core promises stopped working in about 2007.)
Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin should be reduced to about five ministries (DPC/ COAG/ benchmarking, dollars, justice, defence, trade) and parliament halved (pay those remaining double for quantity so isn’t quality of its own).
Learn from Scandinavia, Singapore or Switzerland, or those higher on the UN’s inequality-adjusted Human Developmetn Index, instead of just Washington DC or Westminster.
Said halved parliament should be enabled so voting can take place from electoral offices, so we get pollyTICs that are with their families at night. It would also cut down on expenses/ entitlements, and COAG has a high end video conferencing system.
There probably also should be some parliamentary quota on lawyers, or engineers, entrepreneurs, nurses/ doctors and teachers.
Separate charity from religion, and tax the latter like organized religion businesses.
Furthermore apply a mental health levy on said businesses.
Post the courts after the RC into institutional abuse dust off proceeds of crime legislation for clusters of abuse, and turn facilities into community centres or social housing.
Remove religion symbols or practices from public life, enforce separation of state and church.
Might as well broaden and raise the GST.
It is wasting an opportunity for reform of income tax and stamp duty and payroll tax (drop personal income tax to the effective level of the ASX top 250), besides a bunch of excises and levies.
Let the states (and local) gov handle the rest.
Why not signal the change by removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag.
TPOF there’s a reference to “walking and chewing gum” in there..
Singapore is good if you’re a citizen. If you’re a guest worker its not as good.
Which does not actually make an argument for or against stopping Adani.
Absolutely not. But it does make it a good argument for not obsessing about it to the exclusion (and even distraction from) other important measures that Australia can take to reduce its impact on climate and global warming. The fact is that Adani could not go ahead without substantial government infrastructure support. Labor has announced it will not put a single taxpayer’s dollar toward the mine. Which means that the mine cannot economically proceed. Even if Adani turns a sod of earth or two in a pretence of going ahead with it self-funded, it is patently a stunt (like its announcement it was going ahead) a la Scummo. Lots of light and noise but nothing has happened once the smoke has cleared.
This is what political parties can do when in power:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/16/tax-office-suggests-labor-bills-were-essential-to-bhps-500m-settlement
CC
TPOF there’s a reference to “walking and chewing gum” in there..
_______________________________
Where?
Benjamin Studebaker makes the compelling observation that Democratic politicians aged 40 to 60 are a lost generation. If you want to vote for a democratic socialist, your choices are the distinguished old or the very young. The people in that 40 to 60 age group like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Beto O’Rourke came of age when the New Democrats were dominant. They don’t know any other way to be a Democrat. They are genuinely mystified that many people don’t consider them sufficiently progressive.
https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2018/12/15/why-we-cannot-nominate-a-young-person-in-2020/
Great endorsements from people who have worked for trump.
@krassenstein
Follow Follow @krassenstein
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Tillerson – Trump is a “f*cking moron”
Kelly – Trump is a “f*cking idiot”
Mattis – Trump has the understanding of a “fifth or sixth grader”
Cohn – Trump is “dumb as sh*t”
Priebus – Trump is “an idiot”
McMaster – Trump is “a dope”
Mulvaney – Trump is “a terrible human being”
Why would Shorten go with ‘we’ll have stronger surpluses’…?
“The people in that 40 to 60 age group like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Beto O’Rourke came of age when the New Democrats were dominant. They don’t know any other way to be a Democrat. They are genuinely mystified that many people don’t consider them sufficiently progressive.”
So long as the kind of party that excludes this generation doesn’t want to understand that generation or get any votes from them, sure go ahead. *wanders away mumbling about f*cking morons*
“Why would Shorten go with ‘we’ll have stronger surpluses’…?”
Because it has been an unchallenged aspiration for about 30 years, it is a defence in an area where the LNP will hit Labor hard in the election (as they suddenly realise it is important again).
But yeah it would be much better to promise uncontrolled deficit spending, that is going to be a winner with the 40 – 100 year old set.
Confessions @ #1614 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 12:36 pm
Internode. I would recommend a call to them see what they have on offer for your address, they informed me before I committed for what the speed would be, had a choice to keep the old phone number or go all the way with NBN for both phone and internet (25 or 50 download)
I am surprised that Morrison didn’t appoint Tony Abbott as the next Governor General so that Tony Abbott can’t replace Morrison as Prime Minister
how do you register with poll bludger
WeWantPaul @ #1627 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 12:53 pm
Daniel Andrews promised to double the debt with infrastructure spending and he won in a landslide.
WeWantPaul @ #1627 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 12:51 pm
Excellent post – pointing out how posting to Poll Bludger is such a fine release (in the use of abusive language) for those who don’t play golf. ⛳🏌
“Daniel Andrews promised to double the debt with infrastructure spending and he won in a landslide.”
Got a link to the ‘double the debt’ promise?
You do sterling work as an accountant or tax lawyer but your political views and your imagination of what is possible in politics are stuck in a 1990s Third Way New Labour time warp, so I wouldn’t want someone of your vintage as president of the United States.
ar
Maybe if I simplify it a bit
Adani contribution to global production ( if it happens at all ) is less than insignificant.
Greens are seeing their impending irrelevance coming at them like a runaway train in a tunnel
Labor just need to play the local environmental impact issues & leave it at that. Adani will die a natural death within the capitalist system.
WeWantPaul @ #1632 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 1:01 pm
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/victorian-election-2018-debt-to-double-as-bigspending-labor-drops-cap-20181122-h187jj
Bill Shorten should appoint Bob Brown as head of the EPA.
WWP
You fell into the trap. You said ‘uncontrolled deficit spending’. The response was ‘double the debt for infrastructure spending’. Of course, borrowing for needed infrastructure spending that can be owned by the state and will enormously benefit huge numbers of the population on a full-time basis (compared with stadiums in NSW) cheese and chalk with ‘uncontrolled deficit spending’, being neither ‘uncontrolled’, as long as it is carefully planned and implemented (compared with Sydney light rail) nor ‘deficit’ if the interest rates can be covered within the budget.
“but your political views and your imagination of what is possible in politics are stuck in a 1990s Third Way New Labour time warp”
how the hell would you know what I think is possible, or where my head is at it is the same kind of ignorant arrogance that lets you put Kirsten Gillibrand of the list based on the views she held in the 1990. It is Bernie level idiocy.
“Excellent post – pointing out how posting to Poll Bludger is such a fine release (in the use of abusive language) for those who don’t play golf. ⛳”
I’m glad you can read all my meanings, lovely sharing with you sugar.
“so I wouldn’t want someone of your vintage as president of the United States”
no this kind of thinking is much much more likely to produce a Trump outcome so definitely right out of the 40-60 age bracket.
Whisper:
Thanks for that. I am simply bamboozled by the large number of ISPs to choose from. Most I’ve never heard of before!
“Got a link to the ‘double the debt’ promise?”
I don’t read the AFR I do not consider it a reliable source of information. Every time you read it you leave a little bit dumber.
Development of the Galilee Basin is a Flag-Raiser for both the Liblings and the Qld Nats. Labor will avoid engaging its opponents on issues they claim as their own. Instead, Labor will campaign on its own ground. They’ve been doing this very effectively since 2013. They’re not going to stop now. A tournament needs at least two jousters. A solo jouster with no opponent simply resembles Don Quixote…a knight errant tangling with windmills.
WeWantPaul @ #1640 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 1:11 pm
😆
I’m with MyRrpublic
Unlimited speed mainly 90+MB’s
Unlimited downloads
Phone local mobiles etc
$69 pm
… though pretty much grafitti free.
“You fell into the trap. ”
It didn’t seem, and isn’t a very dangerous trap.
The key federal infrastructure promises for the next term have essentially already been made, and there could even be some additions in the campaign. The key infrastructure need is renewables and the money has already been earmarked into that tin.
There will be pressures to increase recurrent expenditure on pensions and newstart etc, and increases are definitely needed. Not sure Bill is the man but this pressure could be used to help make the case that our tax:GDP ratio needs to be closer to NZ’s and thus the case for some tax increases. Later, there is no point leading with the chin in this election.
WWP
The ‘we’ll have stronger surpluses’ is a clear sign the neo-libs in Labor are a growing force. It was straight out of the Howard-Costello playbook.
The failure of the Libling’s Adani Revolution illustrates precisely why their existence is counter-productive to the goals of environmental protection. They manage to convert every single message they have into an anti-Labor jingle. Consequently, Labor have to switch off the amplifiers. The Liblings campaign against the values they purport to serve. When will they wake up?