BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  2. Israel considers the whole of Jerusalem as their Capital. So CoalMo recognising West Jerusalem as Israel capital is just pathetic that too after big noting with Netanyahu about moving the Embassy from Tel-aviv to Jerusalem and not moving it. I read somewhere CoalMo first discussed the move with Netanyahu before informing Marise Payne. Israel must really be pissed off with CoalMo for splitting Jerusalem and implying that the whole Jerusalem is not theirs.
    Also, CoalMo looks weak in Indonesian eyes. It is a loose- loose situation for Australia. All pain and no gain.

  4. Good morning Bludgers from my phone. It looks like the connection between the modem and the internet after the storm last night was a death rattle only, such that it is now officially an ex modem. Therefore, sadly, I will not be able to curate the cartoons for you today. 🙁

  6. There’s something unconvincing about Peter Hartcher’s latest Lament For Australia.

    Wasn’t he one of those who assured us it was OK to do absolutely nothing about Global Warming for 8 years (and still counting) because Julia Gillard once said “There will be no Carbon Tax under a government I lead”? That mere words, foolishly uttered in a context that became irrelevant, during an obscure interview on the eve of a long-gone election, justified the 6-year rolling disaster of Abbott and the gutless failures to act of Turnbull?

    Hartcher now works for a newspaper that hardly deserves the name, having been hoovered up by a crass, tabloid TV network in a last ditch attempt to salvage something from the random, floating wreckage that Fairfax has become. It employed fools such as Hartcher to produce opinionated Liberal fanboi rubbish passing for analysis, told us that nothing a Labor government could ever be trusted or effective, and then died because of its one-eyed myopia.

    What a disgrace.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/australia-has-much-to-celebrate-and-to-fear-20181214-p50ma0.html

  8. ‘ICanCU says:
    Saturday, December 15, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    @BushfireBill
    This seems now like an exclusive little cohort. I admit I haven’t contributed much and don’t have any emotional attachment apart from admiration of many of the posters knowledge and the outstanding info provided by our host but I don’t understand why my political interests can’t be raised in this a public blog without being shut down as a “troll” – a term which I only seem to encounter on this blog.’

    No-one – apart from William – has shut anyone down. Post what you want. Everyone else does. The issue is not the right to post. The issue is whether some posters do so with integrity and whether some posters are worth oxygenating.

  9. KayJay

    You were no doubt far too young to remember the movies Philip Adams remembers watching back in the day but here they are any way .

    You haven’t lived until you’ve seen Johnny Weissmuller wrestling a rubber crocodile or riding an Indian elephant through the African jungle.

    https://outline.com/rZVR6L

  11. https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/have-yourself-a-very-pc-christmas-no-plastic-mind-20181206-p50kii.html
    https://outline.com/qwz3ph

    I think this item is for those who can manage newspeak mark II – what the %$%& is a woke ❓ fer Chrissakes (Pardonnez-moi, la matinée fut pénible.)

    But in these PC, “woke” times, we should probably be asking ourselves not what Jesus would do, but what we can no longer get away with.
    …………
    So what are those of us still transitioning to wokeness to do? Here’s your guide to celebrating a merry woke Christmas…

    Be pronoun-aware. Say “Santa” and not “Father Christmas”, as it’s more gender-neutral. Build a “snowperson” in the garden and allow them to self-identify.

    Avoid cultural appropriation. Saint Nicholas himself was Greek, and Christmas as we know it was invented by the Germans. There are, however, certain sensitivities you should heed. Claiming Brussels sprouts as a key component of the traditional Christmas dinner could be seen as an affront to the Belgians. Take care to differentiate between turkey and Turkey. And when devilling the leftovers three days later, don’t call it “Christmas curry”.

    If that’s not enough for the jaded palates of the Poll Bludger at large – get a load of this lot —

    Gawd (Apollo/Zeus) bless us – who wouldn’t want a $750 toy monkey ❓ 🙃☕

    I note that Ms. Julie is very popular. As my very favourite daughter thinks she (Ms. Bishop) is the pretty one, I stand aloof – and enough of the “Ken and ….” stuff – I’m a Ken. 😵

    E & OE

  13. Mavis Smith @ #1276 Saturday, December 15th, 2018 – 11:12 pm

    Itza:

    A shocking send up of Dame Margot, produced, directed by a woman:

    Very unkind. The arrival of Nureyev begot the famous duo and the combo became an unstoppable phenomenon, and then there was the horror of the quadriplegia of her husband from a gun shot wound, for whom she devoted the rest of her life. It’s hard not to conclude that she simply needed the money.

    More information comes to light, thanks to wiki . It is quite a story –

    In 1955 Arias married English ballerina Margot Fonteyn, after divorcing his first wife, with whom he had three children. After his marriage Arias was appointed as Panama’s ambassador to the United Kingdom. In 1959 he and Fonteyn were charged with attempted gun-smuggling from their yacht off the coast of Panama and he was accused of fomenting a revolt against President Ernesto de la Guardia Jr. She was immediately deported to England; Arias took refuge in the Brazilian Embassy for two months and was then given safe conduct out of the country. Eventually the charges were dropped and, after a governmental change, the couple were permitted to return to Panama. Documents released in March 2010 by the British government showed that they were both involved in the unsuccessful coup attempt

    In May 1964 Arias was elected to the National Assembly, his first venture into active politics. Two months later, he was shot in an argument with a friend and former political associate, Alberto Jiménez, on a street corner in a suburb of Panama City. It was widely rumored that the shooting was a result of an affair that Arias was having with Jimenez’s wife.[4] Arias was treated for 18 months in British hospitals and spent the rest of his life as a quadriplegic, using a wheelchair. One of the reasons Fonteyn continued to dance so late in life was to pay Arias’ enormous medical bills. Colette Clark, a close friend who worked with Fonteyn on Royal Academy of Dance galas, said:

    “People said it was such a tragedy, his being shot. Of course it wasn’t a tragedy, because she got what she wanted. Someone to look after and love and lavish with all the devotion and strength of her marvellous character.”

    But wait …. there’s more:

    During Fonteyn’s absence from Panama on tour as a ballerina, a socialite named Anabella Vallarino would move into the house as his shadow wife and move out again before Fonteyn’s return.[4] On the day of Arias’ death on November 22, 1989, Vallarino committed suicide by swallowing a bottle of chlorine, and the two were buried on the same day.

    Considerable insight into this formidable woman, nobody’s fool, interviewed on her return to London after the attempted coup in Panama:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2VTrg8LvSY

  14. rhwombat

    That’s the only time I have heard the word ‘flinkey’ but I think the inference was that one hankie was to use for practical purposes (nose-wipe) and one was held in the hand or tucked into the sleeve and brought out to make a gesture (which I have seen in old films).

  15. A draft national platform signed off by the ALP national executive in October committed Labor to significant legal reforms as well as an independent national Environment Protection Authority (EPA) and a national environment commission that would act as an environmental watchdog – but the shadow environment minister, Tony Burke, is resisting some of those changes.

    I wonder what Tony Burke’s reasons are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/16/labor-to-unveil-66bn-affordable-housing-plan-at-national-conference

  17. poroti @ #1309 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:56 am

    KayJay

    You were no doubt far too young to remember the movies Philip Adams remembers watching back in the day but here they are any way .

    You haven’t lived until you’ve seen Johnny Weissmuller wrestling a rubber crocodile or riding an Indian elephant through the African jungle.

    https://outline.com/rZVR6L

    Dammit ❗ My big sister got a job in the ticket sellers booth at the Roxy Theatre in downtown Leeton circa 1950. My big brother and I got to sit in the plush seats upstairs and viewed many of the sagas in the story.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuNpUp69NOU

    I remember MaureenO’Hara talking about (talk show) Mr. Weismuller and how he would, at the drop of a loincloth, display his attributes.
    Sorry – I seem to have digressed…

    We’re talking 1940s films – before the arrival of It Came from Outer Space and Creature from the Black Lagoon (jumping off the screen in migraine-inducing 3D) along with Things, Blobs and other nasties that went bump in the night.

    Yes, yes and yes – masterpieces all – loved em ❗

    I seem somehow to have missed this gem:-

    But on horror nights, such as the time we saw The Beast With Five Fingers, you could hear a pin drop.

    Never mind – now that I’m as old as Arthur (mentioned in the article) I’m quite sure that like busses (not the Newcastle ones) there’ll be another piece of %$*# along soon
    to delight me. 😵😵

  18. Itza – fascinating. And I just thought she had good legs! Arias sounds like he had a bit of charisma of the Latin variety.

  19. KayJay @ #1297 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:36 am

    I often point out to anybody interested (not many) that Christmas is a religious (searching for word) festival, event, celebration.

    Actually it’s a pagan festival commandeered by one particular religion.

    Jehoshua ben Joseph (Jesus the Christ) was actually born on January 7th. The early Christians moved the celebration of his birthday so as not to attract the attention of the Romans, who would’ve sent them to the Colosseum for “entertainment”.

    They chose December 25th because that was a day when festive celebrations were taking place all across the Roman Empire (Saturnalia, Winter Solstice). Who’s going to notice a few people celebrating when the whole empire is celebrating. Had they not made that move, it’s highly unlikely Christianity would still be around today.

  20. lizzie @ #1314 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:07 am

    rhwombat

    That’s the only time I have heard the word ‘flinkey’ but I think the inference was that one hankie was to use for practical purposes (nose-wipe) and one was held in the hand or tucked into the sleeve and brought out to make a gesture (which I have seen in old films).

    lizzie, my mother was insistent that I never leave the house without a handkerchief. To the yoof who said he didn’t need one, her reply was simply that ‘but the person you are with might {need one}.’ She smiled, her smile.

    I’m now 70, and to this day never leave the house without a handkerchief.

  21. Professor Stephen Myers, a naturopath and trained medical doctor with Southern Cross University, said people offering the unproven treatment would be on the “periphery” of the industry.

    He said any health practitioner who recommended a patient shun skin cancer surgery for black salve was not practising safe or evidence-based medicine.

    Professor Myers said surgery for skin cancers was in fact the gentlest and most effective approach – as, unlike black salve, it did not damage healthy skin and had a better cosmetic result.

    https://www.theage.com.au/healthcare/the-corrosive-truth-about-australia-s-illegal-skin-cancer-treatment-20181214-p50m9x.html

  22. ItzaDream @ #1320 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    lizzie @ #1314 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:07 am

    rhwombat

    That’s the only time I have heard the word ‘flinkey’ but I think the inference was that one hankie was to use for practical purposes (nose-wipe) and one was held in the hand or tucked into the sleeve and brought out to make a gesture (which I have seen in old films).

    lizzie, my mother was insistent that I never leave the house without a handkerchief. To the yoof who said he didn’t need one, her reply was simply that ‘but the person you are with might {need one}.’ She smiled, her smile.

    I’m now 70, and to this day never leave the house without a handkerchief.

    Bilbo left without a handkerchief, and he got into all sorts of trouble!

  23. ItzaDream

    When I was at boarding school we used to attend the local church, taken by bus, and before leaving we were ‘inspected’ and asked “Prayer book, collection, hankie?”

    My late husband regarded a handkerchief as indispensable and always carried one – to wipe the windscreen, clean dirt from engine parts, polish his shoes, and sometimes even blow his nose. 🙂

  25. Dan Gulberry (Block)
    Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:21 am
    Comment #1319

    KayJay @ #1297 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:36 am

    Thanks for your post. I have read, in my younger days, a great deal of about the traditions and legends.

    Very interesting. 👍 For the Colosseum.

  27. lizzie @ #1323 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:28 am

    ItzaDream

    When I was at boarding school we used to attend the local church, taken by bus, and before leaving we were ‘inspected’ and asked “Prayer book, collection, hankie?”

    My late husband regarded a handkerchief as indispensable and always carried one – to wipe the windscreen, clean dirt from engine parts, polish his shows, and sometimes even blow his nose. 🙂

    I am reasonable sure the following will not add much to the discussion. I couldn’t find a suitable reference for flinkey and the following seems as inappropriate as anything else.

    😎

  28. Ian Martin
    ‏ 2m2 minutes ago

    Apparently @ScottMorrisonMP announces the new GG today. What are the odds on white male?

    Oh dear, not another brainfart.

  31. KJ
    Nothing so much stirred the ardour of a knight
    nothing so much stirred a rambustious tilt
    nothing so much stirred a fiery joust
    …as the descent of the handkerchief of a lady.

  33. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, December 15, 2018 at 10:23 pm
    Interested in the ALP policies up for debate and endorsement over the next 4 days at the National Conference

    Here they are, all 225 pages ….

    https://files.lab18.org.au/National_Platform_Final_Draft.pdf
    ————————————–
    Seems amazing that even with 80% of Labor voters wanting to see Adani mine stopped, that in all those pages, all those words, that Adani and Galilee basin coal never appear once.
    Coal ships through the Great Barrier Reef just need ‘managing’ apparently, which sounds more like politically managed.
    So many words expended around not actually discussing the current issue.
    No discussion on the damage to water resources from opening Adani and the Galilee basin either, despite the rhetoric about water as well

    According to this Climate Council report, opening the Galilee basin would be the equivalent of adding another 1.3 Australia’s annual CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of our already poor effort
    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/galilee-basin-unburnable-coal/
    “Any new coal mine is fundamentally at odds with protecting Australia from the impacts of climate change.”

  36. lizzie @ #1328 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:41 am

    Ian Martin
    ‏ 2m2 minutes ago

    Apparently @ScottMorrisonMP announces the new GG today. What are the odds on white male?

    Oh dear, not another brainfart.

    I’m disappointed although not surprised they aren’t holding off until after the election. Esp if the election is going to be in March when Cosgrove’s term expires in April.

  38. The Potato and Pezullio have been spending taxpayers money on bread and circuses for their executives… I don’t understand why they didn’t just roll out Peter Dutton to motivate the troops?

    “By Nicole Hasham
    16 December 2018 — 12:00am

    The Department of Home Affairs splashed $132,000 in eight months on motivational speakers including singer Casey Donovan and actor Magda Szubanski, before a budget blowout forced it to drastically cut costs and slash airport staff this Christmas.

    The speakers included singer Casey Donovan, winner of the reality TV series I’m A Celebrity … Get Me Out Of Here!, who was paid $11,000 to appear at a National Reconciliation Week event. Actor Magda Szubanski was paid $16,500 to speak at an event promoting the International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia, Intersexism and Transphobia.

    Actor Samuel Johnson received $17,000 to speak about his sister Connie on International Women’s Day. Ms Johnson was an advocate for cancer research and awareness who died from the disease last year.

    Celebrity scientist Karl Kruszelnicki spoke at the department’s Innovation Month event, in return for more than $13,000.

    Olympic kayaker-turned-motivational speaker Dan Collins was paid $5,500 to speak at a “leadership in action” event. On his website, Mr Collins describes himself as “a management consultant who’s obsessed with taking that which is average and turning it into a winning culture”.

    Professional MC David Lourdes was paid almost $12,000 to speak about “self awareness and personal development” at an executive assistant conference. Mr Lourdes is the founder of Evolving Human Potential Pty Ltd, and seeks to inspire organisations to “develop a ‘go-for-it’ mindset to gain ultimate success”.

    Speaking at the department’s executive leadership conferences, corporate comedian Malcolm Dix received almost $10,000 and motivational speaker Nadine Champion was paid more than $9000.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-reveals-132-000-spent-on-motivational-speakers-as-it-cuts-airport-staff-20181214-p50mbq.html

  39. Given the chronic problems the Coalition has with being the natural government for women, the new GG would have to be a woman.
    Of merit.

  41. sprocket_

    The Potato and Pezullio have been spending taxpayers money on bread and circuses for their executives… I don’t understand why they didn’t just roll out Peter Dutton to motivate the troops?

    😆

  42. sprocket_ @ #1230 Saturday, December 15th, 2018 – 9:34 pm

    So what’s happening in Adelaide over the next 4 days?

    All laid out in this 132page ALP National Conference Guide.. (13mb)

    https://files.lab18.org.au/2018_conference_guide_web.pdf

    I’ve had more of a chance to read this document now. Still disappointed there is no population policy, but the details on migration are slightly better than I first thought (although an increase in humanitarian intake to 27,000 per year is quite tokenistic, given that it is already up around 24,000).

    But the climate change stuff is probably the least inspiring. It is good to see Labor reconfirm their commitment to a multi-sector cap and trade emissions reduction scheme, but there is no detail. Given that this will be one of the main issues of the coming election campaign, has obsessed politics on all sides for the past few years, has been a significant factor in the dumping of at least 4 prime ministers, and is one of the main differentiators between the major parties, I think everyone will have expected Labor to offer something more 🙁

  44. Ryan Zinke has been hailed as the most anti-conservation Interior Secretary in the country’s history. I’m sure he won’t be missed.

    While Zinke remained defiant both in public and private this month — a week and-a-half ago, he boasted that he would continue to attack his critics — Trump had little personal affection for him. The president was annoyed by a few of Zinke’s actions, including a decision in January to exempt Florida from offshore drilling in an appearance with Gov. Rick Scott (R), which was not approved in advance by the White House, and a ruling to allow imports of elephant trophies. Zinke later reversed the elephant trophy decision, after Trump publicly intervened.

    The secretary’s final public appearance was Thursday night at his Christmas party, which he told White House staffers he wanted to have before his dismissal. He invited lobbyists and conservative activists to his executive suite, where he posed for photos in front of a large stuffed polar bear wearing a Santa cap, according to an attendee.

    Mounted animals on the wall were fitted with ornaments.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/interior-secretary-zinke-resigns-amid-investigations/2018/12/15/481f9104-0077-11e9-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html?utm_term=.2bd674ceb71a

  45. BREAKING: PM will announce Australia’s next Governor General at 10am AEDT. It will be a “safe choice”. (Previous speculation has centered on Angus Houston)

    However, Julie bishop might be a smoky. Being female, credible, popular and currently occupying a seat that Christian Porter covets.

    Of course, Cormann will probably organise a spill motion for his mate Peter Dutton.

  46. Quoll

    #StopAdani is a glib Greens hashtag which you are welcome to own and promote. It is largely meaningless in addressing the impact of Climate Change on our planet, other than at best raising awareness of the futility of new coal mines, and at worst, causing the low information citizens to believe that stopping Adani is all that matters.

    Labor has a different policy. It is taking over government and using the instruments of the state to cap emissions, transition the economy to renewable energy, use structural adjustment to support those communities who lose from de-carbonisation, and to provide leadership in international forums and specifically our region for action on the greatest moral challenge of our time.

  48. The most offensive too smart by half action by Morrison would be to appoint Warren Mundine as GG.

    So that’s what I reckon he’ll do.

  50. We need a massive increase in social housing. It’s a pity the ALP is not boosting the stock of community owned social housing. But subsidies to the private sector often end up as rorts and at the end of the day with no ungoing public benefit.

    It’s like the billions spent on subsidising the profits of the health insurance companies rather than spending it on health.

    I know these days it’s the neo-liberal way.

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