BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  2. @ Vogan and Dave
    My big concern is the serious damage being done which will continue for 6 months.. If the ALP are genuinely interested in our best interests they should be pushing the independents to block supply and terminate this mob alah Fraser and rotten Johnny with alcoholic Kerr…

  3. Jack Waterford strikes (home) again.

    Has a Christian fundamental school the right to insist that its science teachers believe in creationism? Or to sack one who did not think that evolution and creationism were alternative scientific theories, on an intellectual par with each other?

    It would be very interesting to know where the Prime Minister himself stands on such issues.

    He went to Sydney Boys High, a fine selective NSW government school, where science has always been taught to a high standard. It does not, never did, teach creationism as some sort of credible alternative explanation for facts of biology and geology. Is he wishing upon his children an education inferior to his own? I asked the Prime Minister’s media office in writing 10 days ago whether his children would be taught creationism at their school (virtually impossible to avoid at any Baptist school.) I also asked about Morrison’s own views on evolution, and whether he believed that Christian fundamentalist schools have the “right” to teach what they believe on evolution, instead of accepted science. Despite a reminder, I have received no reply.

    Indeed…

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/is-there-a-grand-strategy-behind-these-dumb-policies-20181214-p50m8r.html

  4. Nicholas,

    Brexit is also a reaction against the consequences of decades of politically-motivated austerity in the UK; itself a reflection of the abandonment of egalitarian political and economic goals by UK institutions. The irony is that the EU subscribes to these goals quite explicitly. In this sense, the intended rejection of the EU by the UK’s aristocratic leadership is completely of a piece with their repudiation of egalitarian aspirations for the UK.

    This is matched in other ways, including in particular in the institutionalised repression and racism directed against the Windrush generation and in the continuing attempts to dissolve the welfare state. All of this has arisen internally in the UK rather than as a result of any acts of the EU; all of it inspired by reactionary impulses that live on inside the Tory party and in disenfranchised sections of the working class.

    The egalitarian, democratic ambitions that gave rise to Labour in the 1880s have to be restated and redefined for the 21st century. This is the corollary of turning away from Brexit. It will most certainly not be possible to give effect to this by submitting to the catastrophe that Brexit will become.

  5. dave,
    The trolls keep inveigling themselves into the conversation, seeming to have turned the corner from their obnoxiousness and seeming as if they have learned their lesson, however, as I am learning, the troll then takes you for the mug you are and reverts to type. It is kind of a holding pattern which keeps them in the game between trolls on the blog. I have also noticed a pattern of diffusion of animus adopted by the trolls whereby they revert to playing the victim card so as not to completely sideline themselves.

    However, via persistent experience of all this I have finally heeded the expert advice of yourself and others and I just ignore the trolls in all their forms.

    Except via 3rd party observations to which I might add a thought or two.

  7. Hi RHWombat
    Let me think about it but my impression was that the specialists in CH/PMQ were among the most mercenary/uninteresting doctors i have ever met. You might have better success with the GPs but it is a while since I have been there

    Will you be doing palliative there – certainly poorly served and much needed when i was there

  11. ‘BK says:
    Saturday, December 15, 2018 at 7:50 pm

    All goods from China are unloaded at Rotterdam then transferred to smaller vessels because UK can’t handle super cargo
    ____
    This is a HUGE issue with Brexit!’
    Probably not. Rotterdam Port is almost completely mechanized. Provided the goods are in containers it is feasible to write algorithms such that containers from chinese ships destined for the UK are re-arranged and then loaded onto other cargo vessals without the need for human contacts. In other words the actual border comes when the containers are landed in British ports.
    One of my uncles was a blue water tug skipper based at Rotterdam.
    The mayor of Rotterdam is a muslim.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22SvOhI47Tw
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeR9n_vc0Q0

  14. The trolls keep inveigling themselves into the conversation, seeming to have turned the corner from their obnoxiousness and seeming as if they have learned their lesson, however, as I am learning, the troll then takes you for the mug you are and reverts to type.

    C@tmomma writes about trolls as if what they do, feel or express has any other agenda except to be disruptive.

    THEY ARE NOT REAL.

    NOTHING THEY SAY OR DO MEANS ANYTHING AT ALL.

    JUST FUCKING IGNORE THeM.

  15. ‘fess,
    We live on an ironstone ridge and it attracts lightning bolts like a lightning rod. I don’t know if such a thing exists but we have decided to get a surge protector for the phone line. We already have a really good one protecting the TV and other things but we need another one.

    Lightning has directly struck the house and blown apart the box that connects the phone line to the line to the pole a couple of times already. We’re not unlucky, it’s just the way it is.

  16. Given the usual suspects are carrying on I thought i would do a little quick googling 9very little because i have the flu and will shortly take o may bed again BUT

    https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-would-key-export-sectors-fare-under-brexit/

    This table shows that the ONLY sector with a substantial surplus with the EU is the financial sector.

    So yes Alex of London will not fare well but for the rest of the export sectors I cannot see that it is at all obvious that there will be a problem.

  18. From the Wall Street Journal’s Middle East Editor…

    “So Australia is moving a defense office to Jerusalem but keeping the embassy in Tel Aviv? Makes total sense given that the Israeli defense ministry is the only one based in Tel Aviv. Now all Ozzie diplomats will have to travel to other cities for meetings.”

    Mind you, Tel Aviv is only 70km from Jerusalem and you can do it in under an hour. In fact, there is no airport in Jerusalem either, with all planes landing at Ben Gurion just to the north of Tel Aviv.

    The stupidity of this symbolic gesture is just so mind boggling dumb

  23. mikehilliard @ #1213 Saturday, December 15th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    dave

    I’m no NIMBY but the current NSW State planning laws have given far too much latitude for the greedy developers.

    Mike, the tories tried dismissing democratically elected local councils in order to let developers get even MORE of their own way.

    Privatisations pushing up costs, sale of public assets etc – it goes on and on.

    The only description is that the tories are compradors. They have and are betraying all of us and corrupting everything they touch.

    Lets not even get started on bloody stadiums!

  24. Sadly though, you can’t block the trolls on your phone. As evidenced by the inane comment I came across after my last post and had to suffer through. (￣へ￣)

  25. If Brexit goes thru, the trade deficits run by the UK with respect to industrial goods will likely grow larger rather than decline. The effect of Brexit will be to curtail UK access to its export channels, in relation to both manufactures and services. It is partly because of this that the GBP has been depreciating.

  28. nath says:
    Saturday, December 15, 2018 at 9:21 pm
    Yes I agree about all the trolls. particularly BW and Briefly, whose trolling essays are laborious, repetitive and unhinged.

    BW is a dedicated bludger. We are all indebted to him.

  29. dave,
    Those bloody stadiums! As Michael Daley says, if they’re all that they say, let the SCG Trust and the NRL pay for them themselves! They should be able to recoup their investment easily.

  31. This place is educational, in lots of ways. 🙂

    A few days ago it started me thinking about ‘trolls’. I started with a question, because without surrounding something with questions you cannot discover its truth (wtte credit to Feynman). The obvious question is “What is a troll?” But that was too simplistic. It soon became “How do you rank a troll?” From there I got to “How do trolls troll?”, and “Why do trolls troll?” I’m sure there are other questions.

    WRT ‘Rank?’, I have ‘direct response’, ‘indirect response’ (troll becomes 3rd person), and ‘pile-on response’ (troll recruits another), as broad categories.

    WRT to ‘How?’, I have ‘bait’, ‘tactics’ and ‘strategy’ as categories.

    WRT ‘Why?’, I have ‘personal’ and ‘organised’ as buckets for thought.

    I think I’ll spend some thought on the details, boredom I suppose, but I welcome any input. 🙂 (This place should have some.)

  32. NSW growth is all about cramming in as many tax payers as possible, damn the outcome. Gov’s revenue + plans mean zip on the street when they’re knocking down your community. Gladys might be starting to freak out a bit because Sydney locals are fuming, but the decision to green light the the demo of Moore Park stadium shows total arrogance.

  34. mikehilliard @ #1232 Saturday, December 15th, 2018 – 9:36 pm

    NSW growth is all about cramming in as many tax payers as possible, damn the outcome. Gov’s revenue + plans mean zip on the street when they’re knocking down your community. Gladys might be starting to freak out a bit because Sydney locals are fuming, but the decision to green light the the demo of Moore Park stadium shows total arrogance.

    People who insist on living in Sydney deserve everything Gladys can dish out to them 🙂

  35. The single biggest loss risk for the UK with Brexit is the financial services sector. It is around $120 billion big. It represents something like 5-6% of UK GDP. It pays around 60 billion quid a year in taxes.

    The EU will plunder this UK industry with Brexit. In fact they are not waiting for Brexit. They are already bandicooting it.

    Other industries are far more complex. A big issue will be the extent to which multinationals are willing or able to invest in relocating the UK elements of their supply chains into the EU. At the same time, the UK is a substantial market for much that is manufactured in the EU. The UK has a GDP of around $US 2.6 trillion (Australia has a GDP of around $1.4 trillion). The EU, less the UK, has a GDP of around $US 16.4 trillion. UK GDP is growing at a rate of about two-thirds that of the EU.

  36. LR, We really need Asha to decipher some of these troll issues. From my perspective a little known variety of troll is the ‘sanctimonious troll’. They write essay long missives on why and how they understand things so cogently. Briefly and BW are the standouts here. By sheer verbiage they are unsurpassed, repetitive yes, but also so sanctimonious and ever so precious as keepers of ALP lore and wisdom. They think of themselves as online presidents of the ALP, entrusted with its flame and an almost spiritual connection to the party. As if they were themselves born under the Tree of Knowledge and suckled under its branches during the 1890s shearers strike.

  37. dave

    Lets not even get started on bloody stadiums!

    Yeah, and giving the whole Moore Park stadium re-development to the original architect looks sus as.

  38. “Victoria 2018: Final Lower House Results, Poll Performance and 2PP Pendulum”…..

    Kevin, is there any analysis of longer-term statistics for state and federal elections that tests the hypothesis that opinion polls may tend to systematically underestimate the final 2PP for the ALP?

    In any event, for this Vic election, however you estimate the 2PP it looks like a Labor win with a 57% plus… that’s pretty big… Good news for the Victorian Bill Shorten too.

  43. Ascribing real emotions, or even motivations, to trolls – other than being disruptive – plays into their hands.

    They play several here like fiddles, sucking them in every time. The resulting flame wars, dragged out over page after page, serve no other purpose than to disrupt the genuine conversation. The people who respond to the trolls are just as much to blame for the resulting boredom and dysfunction as the trolls are themselves.

    No-one outside is reading or watching these interchanges, a swinging voter, their vote in the balance, waiting to see who has the best arguments. To think otherwise is pure vanity. No one gives a shit who wins the day between troll and staunch defender of Labor, Bill Shorten or whatever. The aim of the troll is to bog down the blog, to disrupt, not to genuinely exchange ideas, or even win the point.

    No, the bickering between trolls and those who see themselves as defending some precious concept, policy or personality is a completely self-indulgent wank.

    You’re not a hero for taking on a troll. You’re an idiot.

  44. Late Riser

    We should set up a ‘Lounge Un-Bludger Activities Committee’ to root out the trolls.
    .
    Q: “Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Troll Party of the Poll Bludger Lounge ?”

  45. It’s amusing how in the past 2 pages BB has written extensively on the importance of ignoring trolls and criticizing those who do mention it. Irony never was so blind.

  46. The single biggest loss risk for the UK with Brexit is the financial services sector. It is around $120 billion big

    Yeah the financial services sector in the UK is parasitic and about ten times larger than it needs to be to do useful functions. It would be good if smart people became scientists or teachers or writers or almost anything other than a financier. The UK does not need so many financiers. The metastasising of that sector is a big waste of real resources and it contributes to asset bubbles, massive inequality of wealth and income, and financial fragility.

    But the evidence I’ve seen is that not much will change on the financial services front as a result of Brexit. If it did become a smaller sector and people redeployed to more useful activities, that would be a good outcome. But not on the cards at this stage, alas.

  48. nath, you seem to be scared of posters who are able to write cogently, in detail and going straight to the jugular of a problem, whilst providing evidence-based analysis using impeccable logic and a solid background knowledge of history, sociology, economics and science. Achieving such a feat often requires many years of painstaking study and gathering, let alone digesting, of information which cannot be dismissed as a vacuous exercise given that decision-making must be based on facts not fantasy or delusion. Such endeavour is more often than not energised by sound and solid principles of the ethical but also the political kind, that tend to form the solid basis upon which we ground our whole understanding of the world and interpret the events of our lives, not to speak of creating a stream of objectives to achieve in both the personal and public sphere.

    …. Okay, now you can go and have a rest…..

  50. Oakeshott Country @ #1207 Saturday, December 15th, 2018 – 9:11 pm

    Hi RHWombat
    Let me think about it but my impression was that the specialists in CH/PMQ were among the most mercenary/uninteresting doctors i have ever met. You might have better success with the GPs but it is a while since I have been there

    Will you be doing palliative there – certainly poorly served and much needed when i was there

    So I’m discovering. Here’s hoping change is possible.

    My spouse has taken a Staff job in Pall Med here, but they didn’t want me as Antibiocop, probably because of my tendency to correct senior clinicians who fuck up with extreme prejudice – hence the academic semi-retirement. I may do some PM & ID in the private hospital: apparently the expansion of private Oncology has generated a distinct need.

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