BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

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  2. 56-44 to Labor
    Morrison and the latest version of LNP.version.3 is regaled with pathos.
    The minor party of envy inspires no new devotees.
    Onwards and upwards for the leadership and direction of Opposition leader Shorten as he promotes his team toward government.
    Encryption nah, its all pretty much straight forward at this point.

  5. Lizzie

    I repair iPhones as a hobby. Not at all knowledgeable about a androids, but some principles overlap. Here is a brief summary.

    Settings- depending on what is turned on and off:

    1) Phones can be searching 24/7 for some connection eg a Bluetooth connection, new mail, new messages, new tweets, facebook info, etc etc.

    2) Various Apps can be searching for your phone 24/7 to auto talk to your phone and auto download info ie data.

    Info/ searching both ways can quickly use up (a) battery and (b) $s especially if on a prepaid.

    Prepaid charge for data at a hugely more expensive rate than plans.

    What telco is your provider (Telstra? Optus? Some other company?

    How much do you pay?

    What is the expiry period? What do you pay and how often?

    Does your prepaid “plan” have a name eg ‘Telstra acme prepaid with bonus fried eggs?’

    With this info, perhaps you can be steered in a more economical direction.

    Cheers

  6. Chinda

    Also the points you make are why I think the whole scare campaign on boats etc are going to fail.

    The reality is there have been no boats and for there suddenly to be one during the election campaign will be very suspicious to voters. They know the Boat Turnbacks work they have been told it does often enough.

    I think its a large part of why the African Gangs fear campaign did not gain traction in Melbourne.
    Its not like it was not tried with all the force of the LNP and their media allies.

  8. Barney in Go Dau @ #1936 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    Pegasus @ #1899 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    The timeline re passage of AA bill according to The Guardian:

    17:41 – A spokesman for the Greens digital rights spokesman, Jordon Steele-John, told Guardian Australia the minor party will oppose all but one of Labor’s encryption bill amendments.

    The Greens are considering Labor’s amendment for an intelligence and security committee review by April. But all the others – including one that tinkers with the definition of “systemic weakness” – will not get Greens support.

    This, I think, answers a query we had here at Guardian HQ: would Labor really risk passing amendments in the Senate that mean the bill won’t pass by Christmas because it has to go back to the house?

    If minor parties and crossbenchers vote down the amendments, the bill can still pass the Senate unamended, with Labor support, and be done by Christmas. Will any of them succeed? We shall see.

    …

    19:14 – Oh, it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them.

    …

    So, in 93 minutes the the Greens have gone from opposing certain proposed amendments to proposing those same amendments by moving them themselves.

    Why did the Greens position change so dramatically? 🙂

    Politics, dear boy. Politics. 🙂

  9. The problem for Morrison in his fear campaign is that the rest of Australia is becoming more like Victoria, not the other way around. He will only lose more votes if he over-does it.

  11. Luke @ #1934 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    I am highly skeptical that the AAbill was needed for Christmas. Google, Apple and Facebook’s lawyers won’t even have opened a fresh google doc, and Telstra’s lawyers won’t even have unpacked their typewriters, to reply to the government’s first round of requests. And that’s before the coders start to tackle the technical challenges. It’s insulting the public’s intelligence to suggest it.

    The bill has other components than just the Technical Capability Notices (which are things that have been getting all the attention). They also broaden powers to intercept using existing technologies and warrants. These are presumably the things needed over Christmas.

  12. guytaur @ #1946 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    If and I admit its big if Apple decides its not worth the PR kudos in court to fight it and instead decides that its cheaper and less hassle to just move Australian user data onto their Chinese servers to comply with the legislation our security will be stuffed.

    You really have no idea what this bill is actually about, do you?

  14. “I have been one of the most effective environmental campaigners in Australia over the past decade and I have poured my heart and soul into the Greens for nearly 16 years,” he said.

    What issues has he campaigned on? Before the sexual assault allegations from Buckland, I’d never heard of him!

  15. Sohar

    Yes it was Labor winning Hawthorn and a “progressive” winning Wentworth.

    The LNP primary vote is collapsing with the fear campaign. What the LNP are doing is like Labor campaigning for the Communist party vote. Thats how dramatic their primary vote fall has been.

  17. Lizzie, do you have wireless internet at home? If so, one way you can extend the life of your phone battery (and save money) is to turn OFF mobile data and turn ON your wifi, connecting it to your home wifi.

    When you leave home, most apps etc have been updated on the cheaper internet connection so you can turn ON your mobile data to keep up-to-date and browse while away from home.

    You can still make and recieve phone calls and texts when BOTH Mobile data and Wifi are off.

  20. mikehilliard @ #1935 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    pica says:

    I love Ren and Stimpy, and often show clips of said pair to my kids….I think Morrison is worse than even Stimpson J Cat……My favorite is when Ren has bad teeth, the throbbing nerves are horrific…..

    Yes! Used to play that to the kids so they’d clean their teeth, otherwise the “nerve fairy” would come 🙂

    We let the kids watch all of them. Happy Tree Friends. Rugrats. Animaniacs. South Park. The Simpsons. Futurama. Duck Tales. The Powerpuff Girls. Ren and Stimpy. Pinky and the Brain. Johnny Bravo. Rocko’s Modern Life. The Angry Beavers. Aaahh!!! Real Monsters (my favourite). CatDog. Cow and Chicken. Spongebob Squarepants. King of the Hill. The Wild Thornberrys. Arthur. The Fairly OddParents.

    Ah, truly a golden age of cartooning.

  22. “I am highly skeptical that the AAbill was needed for Christmas.”

    I am highly sceptical that more than a tiny fraction of all the “security” legislation passed since 9/11 was ever needed.

  24. Confessions @ #1964 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    “I have been one of the most effective environmental campaigners in Australia over the past decade and I have poured my heart and soul into the Greens for nearly 16 years,” he said.

    What issues has he campaigned on? Before the sexual assault allegations from Buckland, I’d never heard of him!

    He WAS a very good campaigner for the environment. Mainly against habitat clearing, coal mining and fracking.

  25. Why did the Greens position change so dramatically?

    So they could create a slur on Labor. It is all they ever do.

    And why? Because they hate the environment and want their little buddies in the LNP stay in power for longer and continue stuffing the environment.

  27. Socrates @ #1614 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    Psyclaw

    He certainly knows when to fold them and run!

    You are right.

    Bill Shorten may be a lot of things, but stupid ain’t one of them.

    His object is to gain government. Whatever it takes, as Richardson so famously intoned.

    Once you are in government, everything can change. But first, gain government.

  29. C@tmomma @ #1958 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:44 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1936 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    Pegasus @ #1899 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    The timeline re passage of AA bill according to The Guardian:

    …

    So, in 93 minutes the the Greens have gone from opposing certain proposed amendments to proposing those same amendments by moving them themselves.

    Why did the Greens position change so dramatically? 🙂

    Politics, dear boy. Politics. 🙂

    Surely they are above such tawdry squabbles? 🙂

  31. don

    Whatever it takes, as Richardson so famously intoned.

    Richo also noted that leads to you becoming what you entered politics to do something about in the first place.

  33. Player One @ #1511 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    No, a TCN has to be targeted at a particular person.

    What is your basis for this assertion? From what I can tell, the legislation says nothing to this effect. The closest thing it has is that a warrant (which must identify a specific target, such as an individual computer or phone) is required before an agency can actually view any cleartext.

    However a warrant is not required to issue a TCN, and TCN’s are not limited in scope to any one particular user or device. It appears entirely valid to draft a TCN like:

    “Hey WhatsApp, we require you to develop an app update that you will push to all of your users that grabs the cleartext of any message that the user sends before it’s encrypted, encrypts it with a user-specific key known only to WhatsApp, and then securely ships the encrypted data to repo.asio.gov.au where it shall be encrypted again using a key known only to ASIO. Upon receiving proof that a warrant has been issued against any particular WhatsApp user, WhatsApp must provide its user-specific key to ASIO so that their messages can be fully decrypted and viewed.”

    Which deploys the spyware to everyone, and actively spies on everyone, and doesn’t fall afoul of the caveats regarding needing to have a warrant before any cleartext is divulged.

    What are you seeing in the bill that would prohibit such a scenario? And please don’t say ‘systemic weaknesses’, as the text of the bill raises that term in relation to developing “backdoors”, which sideways-encrypted-logging most definitely is not.

    For instance, you could download a special browser update (or messaging app update) to a particular person only, which would only be triggered when run in conjunction with a specific OS update downloaded by the same person.

    Yes, I thought I included the caveat that if you got the OS developer and the Browser developer and the Chat developer all collaborating with multiple TCN’s it could be done. Though of course, then instead of trying to secretly update one app you have to secretly update the entire OS and potentially multiple apps at the same time.

    Much easier to just spy on everyone always. 🙂

  36. There are various judgements that can be made about Richo – many of them quite scathing.
    But one of the judgements must be about what he delivered for the environment which he was able to deliver before the advent of the Greens Party.
    Richo did deals with environmental groups during election periods in return for support during the election period.
    And then he delivered on these deals.
    Environmentalists have probably forgotten this golden age of huge gains for the environment.
    Yes… you got that right… huge gains for the environment.
    One such deal was the Wet Tropics World Heritage.
    Labor lost some skin in that – including from timber workers who lost their jobs.
    But a deal is a deal is a deal.
    The Greens Party has locked up the environment vote where it achieves absolutely nothing.
    So, no deals anymore.
    The Greens Party has a lot of questions to answer.

  37. zoomster @ #1681 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    guytaur

    Wow, talk about shifting goalposts! Your post was specifically about Andrews’ reaction to terrorist events. Obviously you now realise you were wrong about this, but rather than admit it you’re now talking about something else.

    I see no reason to engage with Guytaur over anything at all, even over such things as whether the sun rises in the east.

    Guytaur is a waste of time and effort, and is best ignored. He does not have a clue.

    About anything.

    And he is not on first base with regard to encryption, that much is obvious.

  40. lizzie @ #1739 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    Talking of mobiles, my phone has recently (couple of months) started chewing up money, using an amount that would have lasted for 6 month in one month. I rarely use it, but have sent a couple of SMSs recently. Is this the problem?

    I am not an expert, but I would check that your mobile is using the wifi that you presumably have in your home.

    If it is using your mobile data to ‘phone home’ then that can add up to a lot very quickly.

    Get rid of all the apps that you rarely or never use – perhaps stock market apps, perhaps weather apps, perhaps ‘health’ apps, whatever.

    Check that the apps are not constantly checking your whereabouts using GPS. That chews up data.

    Cut your apps down to the bare minimum, and tell them that no, they can’t phone home every thirty seconds.

  41. a r @ #1983 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:09 pm

    Player One @ #1511 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    No, a TCN has to be targeted at a particular person.

    What is your basis for this assertion? From what I can tell, the legislation says nothing to this effect. The closest thing it has is that a warrant (which must identify a specific target, such as an individual computer or phone) is required before an agency can actually view any cleartext.

    Those are the explanatory notes. Read the actual legislation, and search for “particular person”.

    However a warrant is not required to issue a TCN, and TCN’s are not limited in scope to any one particular user or device. It appears entirely valid to draft a TCN like:

    “Hey WhatsApp, we require you to develop an app update that you will push to all of your users that grabs the cleartext of any message that the user sends before it’s encrypted, encrypts it with a user-specific key known only to WhatsApp, and then securely ships the encrypted data to repo.asio.gov.au where it shall be encrypted again using a key known only to ASIO. Upon receiving proof that a warrant has been issued against any particular WhatsApp user, WhatsApp must provide its user-specific key to ASIO so that their messages can be fully decrypted and viewed.”

    Which deploys the spyware to everyone, and actively spies on everyone, and doesn’t fall afoul of the caveats regarding needing to have a warrant before any cleartext is divulged.

    No, this type of thing is specifically excluded.

    What are you seeing in the bill that would prohibit such a scenario? And please don’t say ‘systemic weaknesses’, as the text of the bill raises that term in relation to developing “backdoors”, which sideways-encrypted-logging most definitely is not.

    See above. You are allowed to have a TCN that introduces “system weaknesses” and “systemic vulnerabilities” if they are targeted at “particular persons”

    For instance, you could download a special browser update (or messaging app update) to a particular person only, which would only be triggered when run in conjunction with a specific OS update downloaded by the same person.

    Yes, I thought I included the caveat that if you got the OS developer and the Browser developer and the Chat developer all collaborating with multiple TCN’s it could be done. Though of course, then instead of trying to secretly update one app you have to secretly update the entire OS and potentially multiple apps at the same time.

    Much easier to just spy on everyone always. 🙂

    Easier, perhaps. But specifically disallowed.

  44. lizzie @ #1815 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    poroti

    Sometimes I am mistaken for Puff, sometimes for other women.

    Do we all seem the same to males?

    Not to me. You all have distinctive personalities, and yours is very strong. So is Puff’s, I would never confuse the two of you. And the other female posters.

    Though I sometimes have trouble keeping track of the predilections of the males.

  45. Just for the younger Greens on the web who think that the Greens Party is good for the environment:

    The Wet Tropics World Heritage Area = nearly 900,000 hectares. Richo. Pre Greens Party. The environmental vote making a real major difference to conservation.
    The Greens Party has achieved nothing remotely like this in 30 years.
    Partly because the Reds are doing traditional ideological warfare.
    Party because the Reds have locked up the environmental vote where it has zip leverage.
    Think about it.

  47. Australia set a precedent in banning Huawei, it was justified by a legal conflict of interest with Chinese laws requiring its citizens to act as intelligence agents if asked to.
    Now the Australian government is placing a legal obligation on any company operating in Australia to act for Australian intelligence agents.
    We set the precedent by which other countries are justified in banning our IT products and services.

    This bill wont make anyone more secure, anyone with half a brain will still be able to communicate privately, its just another power grab by our authoritarian rulers,

    Wonder what they will want next, who dare say no to them now.

  48. DisplayName @ #1915 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

    That post – what does it mean, actually?

  49. BK

    Congratulations . Youse Crow Eaters are the home of Scavenging for food 🙂

    NYT version….
    600 Million Years Ago, the First Scavengers Lurked in Dark Ocean Gardens
    https://outline.com/MtV5Fm
    The ‘science’ version.
    Ediacaran scavenging as a prelude to predation
    James G. Gehling, Mary L. Droser

    Set in the Flinders Ranges of South Australia, 400 km north of Adelaide (Supplementary Figure S1), the Adelaide Rift Complex preserves a 10–12 km thick Cryogenian, Ediacaran and early Cambrian succession.
    http://www.emergtoplifesci.org/content/2/2/213

  50. Boerwar @ #1995 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:28 pm

    Just for the younger Greens on the web who think that the Greens Party is good for the environment:

    The Wet Tropics World Heritage Area = nearly 900,000 hectares. Richo. Pre Greens Party. The environmental vote making a real major difference to conservation.
    The Greens Party has achieved nothing remotely like this in 30 years.
    Partly because the Reds are doing traditional ideological warfare.
    Party because the Reds have locked up the environmental vote where it has zip leverage.
    Think about it.

    The younger Greens would remember a certain former Labor PM tearing down a Labor-Green Govt that legislated the most progressive environmental/energy policy ever.

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