BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 44
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  1. FWIW, many years ago I had a colleague who had a sign over his desk “Nothing is impossible to the one who doesn’t have to do it”. IMO politics is the art of the possible. A good politician is a good salesman. A statesman is one who raises the standard of the possible.
    Those who prattle about what would be nice without saying how to get it aren’t worth listening to (at least in a political context).
    If any greens feel affronted by this, well well. The IPA have a good idea of what they want, and they know a possible way of getting it, by goading the ‘perfectionists’ into fighting the pragmatists. A big wave to Rex & Nath , by the way. I don’t know whether they’re IPA or just fellow travellers.

  3. Always hilarious to be accused of “helping the Liberals” by those who, as a look back through their posts during the 2013 campaign will reveal, have no scruples about doing exactly that if the mood strikes them.

  4. The Tory family – the Liberals, the Liblings, the Nationals, the Cories and ON – have had their pre-Christmas picnic, the tables loaded with Indignation, Trickery, Pomposity, Fear and Outrage. Fuck em all. None of them are serious. They are all imposters.

  5. poroti says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 5:13 pm
    Quoll

    I’m sure his 1968 self would be pretty disappointed to find he becomes “Cohn-Bendit, now a friend and adviser to President Emmanuel Macron”
    ——————————-
    Perhaps, but probably well down the scale of disappointment with regard to supposedly wealthy and educated developed democracies doing such a shit effort in making their and the world’s human culture more sustainable and less of a corporate ecologically destroying mess in the intervening years.

  6. Morrison is sounding more and more hysterical by the day. He’s morphing into a Trump mini-me.

    Shorten ‘has no idea what he’s doing’
    RICHARD FERGUSON
    PM doubts Labor leader’s comprehension of Nauru amendments, saying: “You can’t contract out border protection to two doctors on Skype.” (Oz headline)

  7. Peg, if the Greens move amendments then they are Green amendments irrespective of who they have stolen them from! 🙂

  8. @Thefinnigans tweeted 2 hours ago

    BREAKING: BISONs Exclusive:

    @thepmo issued daily talking point to all LNP Ministers, MPs and Senators for now until election March or May09.

    Only STOP the BOATS!! – no economic, social, infrastructures or anything else

    Then on the day the encryption bill was passed he posted this

    Dear Bill @billshortenmp why do we need an encryption bill #aabill so urgently. Please Explain

    Anyone here want to accuse The Finnegans of being a Green?

    He is still voting Labor as far as I know but he saw through the fear campaign the LNP is waging on the AABill.

  9. Every person I know in the software industry, from rank and file programmers to software journalists (who unlike the MSM actually know their stuff to a sufficiently deep level) are saying this legislation isn’t just bad but terrible. And to the point where amendments aren’t going to fix it, the problem is the fundamentals.

    e.g.
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/internet-architecture-board-warns-australian-encryption-busting-laws-could-fragment-the-internet/)
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/heres-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-new-anti?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter&utm_term=.ymNv5wMWvQ

    Furthermore, the central argument the ALP used for their temporary support of the bill, ‘keeping Australians safe over Christmas’, doesn’t ring true. Key parts of the bill have delays of a month or more built into them. They won’t be enacted until after Christmas!

    With this in mind it looks like the ALP’s support is entirely about avoiding attacks from the LNP framed around being soft on terrorism. But at what cost?

    This is not just about our theoretical liberties and rights to privacy, but about the security of every system we use day-to-day, including potentially bank payments. Further, if companies doing business in Australia have to build back-doors into their systems then that makes companies developing code in Australia less competitive internationally – some programmers are even worried about their jobs disappearing offshore.

    I know people who are changing their votes from the ALP to the Greens or some of the centrally aligned parties over this. The ALP will not have a majority in the Senate after the next election. So, this move could end up being too clever by half if it makes negotiations in the senate more difficult.

  10. Briefly left out Animal Justice from his rant and their atrocious efforts to preference the Greens and thereby establish Tory rule forever.

  11. Do whatever it takes ruthlessness was evident in the Victorian state election.

    Bipartisan agreement to not reform the undemocratic upper house voting system before the election to flipping from a bipartisan agreement 4 years ago to reform it.

    All that mattered was the political calculus.

    All that mattered to the political duopoly was to expunge the Greens from parliament and replace progressive members with candidates from right-wing micro-parties.

    Will Andrews push for reform. Doubt it. As long as he benefits (or has he?) he will continue supporting an undemocratic system.

    If you want to laud such pragmatism. By all means. But don’t whinge later about “those unrepresentative swill” when Labor’s attempts to pass its legislation is thwarted by those same right-wing members of parliament.

  13. DVC @ #1909 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:31 pm

    Every person I know in the software industry, from rank and file programmers to software journalists (who unlike the MSM actually know their stuff to a sufficiently deep level) are saying this legislation isn’t just bad but terrible. And to the point where amendments aren’t going to fix it, the problem is the fundamentals.

    The legislation is indeed terrible – not because it’s not doable, but because it probably won’t achieve its claimed objective. **

    However, I am only dealing with the legislation as it was passed, and whether or not it is doable. Which it is.

    ** Which makes one wonder if its claimed objective is its real objective 🙁

  14. Pegasus @ #1911 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:34 pm

    Do whatever it takes ruthlessness was evident in the Victorian state election.

    Bipartisan agreement to not reform the undemocratic upper house voting system before the election to flipping from a bipartisan agreement 4 years ago to reform it.

    All that mattered was the political calculus.

    All that mattered to the political duopoly was to expunge the Greens from parliament and replace progressive members with candidates from right-wing micro-parties.

    Will Andrews push for reform. Doubt it. As long as he benefits (or has he?) he will continue supporting an undemocratic system.

    If you want to laud such pragmatism. By all means. But don’t whinge later about “those unrepresentative swill” when Labor’s attempts to pass its legislation is thwarted by those same right-wing members of parliament.

    I voted for 9 upper house candidates below the line.

    There needs to be a GetUp style campaign promoting below the line voting at the next election.

  15. Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

  16. Scott Morrison getting more unhinged over age old issue of boats, doctors being able to treat children properly, is somehow undermining our borders.
    Where are the Green denouncing this, why are they wasting their time trying to undermine Labor, who are in opposition?
    When are the Greens going to criticize the Coalition… who are actually in government now?

  17. Nicko @ #1916 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:45 pm

    When are the Greens going to criticize the Coalition… who are actually in government now?

    There is absolutely no point in the Greens criticizing the Coalition – it would have zero impact on Coalition policy, and they know it.

    It took Labor a while to learn the same lesson, but learn it they have.

  18. I am heading out soon for an evening with friends, so I will not be here when Newspoll typically lands, should it land.

    My plan is to harvest any late guesses (you can guess “no poll”) when I return and either post the full list tonight or just the “no polls” when it becomes clear there will be no poll.

    Bragging rights rule. 🙂

    Bye for now.

  20. Scrott wants to make sure they have time to clear out all the money.
    .
    .
    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has locked in a May election, with government sources saying the Coalition needs to deliver a budget to complete its economic story before going to the polls.”
    https://outline.com/EnZqCk

  21. Player One @ #1913 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:37 pm

    ** Which makes one wonder if its claimed objective is its real objective 🙁

    Of course it isn’t it. It’s real objective is to be able to spy on environmental activists (including pesky kids who take time off school), unions, etc., etc..

    Anyone with a fraction of common sense can see it won’t prevent a terrorist attack. It may be useful after the event to help track down accomplices, but just like CCTV, they won’t prevent an attack.

  22. poroti

    Oh dear that means they are going to have to vote on medical doctors making the decision about relocating AS 😆

    To surplus or not to surplus bs budget? that is the question.

  23. It’s hard to imagine a result worse than the last 55-45, and of course any slight movement back to the Coalition will have the Australian headlines screaming

    “Morrison gets on top of Shorten and Labor as year ends”

    And of course if that’s not the case and it’s 55-45 or worse, there is always the ever reliable

    “Morrison keeps lead over Shorten”

    then after a long break over summer and a slight swing back, late January headline

    “Coalition refreshed and surging back after summer break”

  24. peg

    ‘But don’t whinge later about “those unrepresentative swill” when Labor’s attempts to pass its legislation is thwarted by those same right-wing members of parliament.’

    But it was OK when Labor’s attempts to pass its legislation was thwarted by the Greens.

    There are reasons Labor preferenced why they did, and why they don’t think they owe the Greens a thing.

  25. “The Morrison government as the election gets nearer”

    I love Ren and Stimpy, and often show clips of said pair to my kids….I think Morrison is worse than even Stimpson J Cat……My favorite is when Ren has bad teeth, the throbbing nerves are horrific…..

  26. Like it or not, Bludgers, the intricate goings-on in Federal Parliament ARE “inside the beltway” issues.

    I live in a small country town and their take-away issues from the last week of parliament are:
    1) no idea: I don’t follow politics;
    2) fuck the lot of them; they don’t give a shit about me;
    3) an awareness of something happening to do with National Security, and Labor supported it as well; or
    4) Labor supported the Libs, which must be why they are cracking the shits

    This is the reality of living in the country; unless the government or the opposition stuff up badly then generally the people couldn’t give a stuff.

    Talk to them about the weather, crop yields, crutching sheep … anything but the ridiculous dickheads in Canberra and their childish goings-on.

  27. Mick Minion

    ‏ @169lunar
    10h10 hours ago

    Perspective
    1,000 legal asylum seekers arrived by boat imprisoned in offshore gulags
    28,000 legal asylum seekers arrived by plane this year alone
    64,000 illegal visa overstayers arrived by plane

    What is the issue with boats
    @billshortenmp @tanya_plibersek @AlboMP @gedkearney

  28. Why would anyone bother taking The Greens seriously any more anyway? They are falling to bits:

    “How can a political party’s head office be broken into, ballot papers be stolen, and it not being reported to the Federal Police?” Ms Faehrmann wrote.

    “This raises very serious questions which deserve answers both for party members and for the general public if we are to expect them to continue to put their faith in us.”

    She said there as no doubt that the NSW Greens were now “at a crossroad”.

    “It is my firm belief that the party in NSW has been infiltrated by destructive extreme left forces who will stop at nothing to weaken those in the party, like myself and Jeremy, who want nothing more than to make a difference for the planet, our climate and our future,” Ms Faehrmann wrote.

    In a statement, Mr Buckingham said he was considering legal action.

    “I have been one of the most effective environmental campaigners in Australia over the past decade and I have poured my heart and soul into the Greens for nearly 16 years,” he said.

    “But the fact is that the NSW Greens as an organisation is corrupt and rotten.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/destructive-extreme-left-forces-greens-mp-slams-buckingham-decision-20181209-p50l61.html

    How can anyone vote for a party like that? 🙂

  29. guytaur

    I have every confidence that when it comes to dodgy assumptions on which to base your budget numbers Scrott and his crew will set a new Coalition record. So when, rather than if, the predictions turn to shit it’s win win ,Labor wins the election-it’s all Labor’s fault their fantasy numbers failed to materialise. If the electorate are sucked in and re-elects them , who cares ? They have the main prize , government and if the electorate get bolshie about the failed predictions the AFR,SMH,The Australian,Ch9 etc will cover for them

  30. If the encryption legislation is really so destructive, isn’t it possible that it could be reversed if the whole industry rears up and attacks?

    Oh no, forgot. All the experts shouting together couldn’t stop fraudband, could they. 🙁

  31. chinda

    Yes. The exception being on how much influence the tech people are talking about it.

    Given the farce we got of the NBN I don’t want to over sell that but we can’t ignore it either.

    To say Labor should have voted no is an opinion on the legislation and the political strategy behind it.
    Its not to say how high the issue impacts the voters not even pointing out its got a lot of twitter talk which given social media connection to tech is no surprise.

    We will know when Essential does its how does this issue rate polling at the earliest I think.
    We also had people saying same sex marriage was a third order issue but it has put LGBTI rights into the symbolic culture war loss for the dinosaur religious faithful in the LNP. Note thats a very particular reference going on results of the survey.

    We are told yeah such and such is a third order issue and then find voters do care and will vote for the positive as if they can.
    Look at what Phelps campaigned on. It was not exactly the security law and order fear campaign the LNP is running or the tax cuts economic one either and she won that blue ribbon Wentworth seat.

    All I think we can say is that the country is more progressive than we are constantly told it is from election condition results.

  33. @lizzie

    Yup.

    Once Legislation is installed, it’s rarely reversed.

    But on Fraudband, we can fix it by spending more money on it, and blame Liberals.

    But first we must fix Murdoch.

  34. I am highly skeptical that the AAbill was needed for Christmas. Google, Apple and Facebook’s lawyers won’t even have opened a fresh google doc, and Telstra’s lawyers won’t even have unpacked their typewriters, to reply to the government’s first round of requests. And that’s before the coders start to tackle the technical challenges. It’s insulting the public’s intelligence to suggest it.

  35. pica says:

    I love Ren and Stimpy, and often show clips of said pair to my kids….I think Morrison is worse than even Stimpson J Cat……My favorite is when Ren has bad teeth, the throbbing nerves are horrific…..

    Yes! Used to play that to the kids so they’d clean their teeth, otherwise the “nerve fairy” would come 🙂

  36. Pegasus @ #1899 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    The timeline re passage of AA bill according to The Guardian:

    17:41 – A spokesman for the Greens digital rights spokesman, Jordon Steele-John, told Guardian Australia the minor party will oppose all but one of Labor’s encryption bill amendments.

    The Greens are considering Labor’s amendment for an intelligence and security committee review by April. But all the others – including one that tinkers with the definition of “systemic weakness” – will not get Greens support.

    This, I think, answers a query we had here at Guardian HQ: would Labor really risk passing amendments in the Senate that mean the bill won’t pass by Christmas because it has to go back to the house?

    If minor parties and crossbenchers vote down the amendments, the bill can still pass the Senate unamended, with Labor support, and be done by Christmas. Will any of them succeed? We shall see.

    …

    19:14 – Oh, it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them.

    …

    So, in 93 minutes the the Greens have gone from opposing certain proposed amendments to proposing those same amendments by moving them themselves.

    Why did the Greens position change so dramatically? 🙂

  37. lizzie

    Climate experts had no luck either. All down hill for science and expertise since getting our pre Enlightenment Mad Monk PM in 2013.

  38. Morrison’s dodgy budget surplus is based on not paying what others are entitled to:

    A $3 billion “locked box” of cash set aside for a dumped Victorian road project should be opened up for other works, the state’s premier says.

    Daniel Andrews told reporters on Sunday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison should let the money earmarked for the rejected East West Link to go to other works.

    “There is $3 billion of what Mr Morrison thinks is his money in a Liberal Party locked box. Well Mr Morrison it is not your money, the money belongs to Victorians,” he said.

    “That money is sitting there achieving nothing, burning a hole in the Prime Minister’s pocket.”
    Mr Andrews called for the cash to flow for infrastructure ahead of the Council of Australian Governments meeting on the topic of population growth on Wednesday.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/vic-premier-calls-for-3bn-cash-release/news-story/6f20b5f5c8ebf9286f4104e642759934

  39. lizzie and zoid.

    We saw how far tech can be misrepresented for political purposes with NicK Ross trying to tell the truth about Fraudband.

    I understand the fear of Labor on this. I just think its wrong as I think the political landscape has changed. Partly due to people experiencing the reality of their NBN against what they were told.

  40. Aaron Patrick
    ‏Verified account @apatrickafr
    2h2 hours ago

    Almost a year ago Tony Abbott accused me of “joke journalism” when I reported he wanted to be Liberal leader again. A week ago he confirmed it to @BradNorington. #auspol

  42. Buckingham and Husar are going to spend most of their lives in lawyers offices if they follow through on all their legal threats.

  44. Guytaur: actually, ours was an electorate that voted strongly in favour of ME, much to my delight. My point is that for many rural and regional voters, the politics of the personal rules.

    ME worked because just about everyone knows and loves someone who’s gay; encryption doesn’t work because it seems too far removed from anything your average Joe/Jo has to worry about.

    In my experience, country people are very pragmatic as well as having excellent B.S. meters.

  46. Chinda

    Encryption is a ticking time bomb if Labor don’t repeal it.

    If and I admit its big if Apple decides its not worth the PR kudos in court to fight it and instead decides that its cheaper and less hassle to just move Australian user data onto their Chinese servers to comply with the legislation our security will be stuffed.

    Voters as a mass will take note if such a thing occurs.

  49. “** Which makes one wonder if its claimed objective is its real objective “

    Morrison’s objective on the last day of Parliament was to start a fight on his chosen ground.

  50. ‘Tristo says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 2:53 pm

    @Boerwar

    Whatever you believe on Corbyn’s handling of Brexit. I predict Labour is not going to get the blame for a no-deal Brexit, it will be the Brexiters.’

    Uh huh. Corbyn is a Brexiteer. So are the Crazy Far Left in his Party.

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