BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 44
1 … 37 38 39 … 44

  2. a r @4:27pm, I don’t see how tacking with the Government on the encryption law loses Labor votes, at least TPP against the Coalition. (I’m sure they’ll lose PV to the Greens or others on the left. I’m not sure how many. Nobody can be sure, absent polling on how this law shifts voting intention.) What voter critical of this law would seriously switch their vote from Labor, which helped pass the law under some degree of political duress, to the Coalition, which formulated it and pushed it through the Parliament as their policy?

  3. BTW

    On the rhetoric the LNP is using about Labor on Asylum Seekers. I liked someones tweet of the Trump Caravan having moved a long way 🙂

  4. Guytaur, ‘Nice spin.’ You bet. Once the Greens moved it, it was theirs. They own it. Labor voted against the Greens amendment.

    Spin it as you like, but saying Labor voted against their own amendment is complete rubbish and you know it.

    But if fit gives a chance to bag Labor, then in Greens world it is ok.

    But by doing this you are aiding and abetting the LNP. The same LNP that will stuff up the environment given any chance!

    Why do the Greens do this? Don’t they like the environment anymore?

  9. PeeBee

    Ah yes pointing out reality is so being pro LNP.

    Sorry we have a preferential voting system. I can vote Green and direct my preference to Labor so Labor knows I think they are too far to the right. I have stated here my reasons for that. You can disagree however it does not chang the message I and others have given.

  10. Jeremy Buckingham is refusing to retire at the next election, and is considering legal action.

    In a statement on Sunday, Buckingham said the party processes had been “abused and co-opted for factional purposes” and that grassroots members had been “disenfranchised” by a move to eject him from the party.

    “The party’s own constitution specifies that the election ticket for the Legislative Council is set by a democratic ballot of all Greens members,” Buckingham said.

    “It is in black and white and it was written that way precisely to stop MPs and party insiders from meddling with preselection results.”

    He added: “I will be assessing my legal options and I will have more to say in a few days’ time.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/09/jeremy-buckingham-considers-legal-action-after-greens-ask-him-to-step-aside

    If he refuses the request not to recontest, what can the party do? Not a good look.

  12. Confessions

    Thats why the party tried to put it off. However like any scab the Greens should have moved quickly and contained the damage. Being slow has only increased the damage and notice to the party.

    This made worse by not having a proper way to disendows candidates it looks like. Thats one of the reasons I have said Labor is superior in this space. You have to plan for the bad apple. Any part of society is going to get one.

  14. PeeBee @ #1854 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:36 pm

    Guytaur, ‘Nice spin.’ You bet. Once the Greens moved it, it was theirs. They own it. Labor voted against the Greens amendment.

    Spin it as you like, but saying Labor voted against their own amendment is complete rubbish and you know it.

    But if fit gives a chance to bag Labor, then in Greens world it is ok.

    But by doing this you are aiding and abetting the LNP. The same LNP that will stuff up the environment given any chance!

    Why do the Greens do this? Don’t they like the environment anymore?

    The substantial point of Labors actions last Thursday was to protect Bill Shortens weakness.

  17. 😆

    Phillip Moore
    ‏ Dec 6

    Bloke in front of me at the coffee queue had COACH JESUS on his t-shirt. I asked if he was playing the Pharisees tonight. He just looked blank. Whoever is teaching religious fanaticism these days is falling down on the job.

  18. guytaur says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 2:10 pm
    So we have it. Disagree with Labor you are moralising, and say Labor has to cop all the responsibility.

    This despite the fact the argument is Labor voted with the government of the day and thats seen as a bad political strategy in supporting policy itself has said is bad.

    That is unless you are 100% for Labor you are sanctimonious and moralising

    This is crap. No-one has accused the Liblings of these things. All that can be seen is hour upon hour of self-pleasuring by the incapacitated.

  22. Morrison suggests that Labor would be outsourcing to “2 doctors on Skype”.

    Shorten Suite Retweeted
    @ShayneNeumannMP
    50m50 minutes ago

    Another lie.

    This legislation is about listening to the advice of treating doctors because the Liberals and Morrison have failed to act for close to six years.

    It does not undermine Australia’s strong border security measures.

  23. Cud Chewer, I really appreciated your post back on page 28.

    Part of the problem is that politicians and journalists freely admit they don’t understand the issues, often with a laugh, and then continue to make major decisions about it anyway. To the software industry it is shocking at how blase they are about it and how little our professional opinions are counting.

    It’s like anti-vaxers are in charge of vaccination policy. It is a serious danger to the country.

    Software engineers must build safe software. It’s a fundamental component of civilisation. A plane can’t fall out of the sky due to a bug. The electricity grid can’t fall over. A phone shouldn’t lose photos randomly.

    To order programmers to make unsafe code (and adding vulnerabilities is unsafe) is the exact opposite of what Parliament should be doing. If lawmakers must get involved, then the laws should be aimed at making computers more secure, not less.

  27. L R,
    I’m still waiting for the NBN so I can use the cloud for backups. ADSL a bit slow on uploading. I suspect MS will not want the bad press of putting a back door in Widows to subvert my encryption 🙂

  28. The Labor polemicists here have been busy over the past week or so, trying to convince everyone that people who don’t like Labor’s support for the Coalition’s terrible legislation (legislation that actually makes us less secure) are the other. I’m not quite sure why they think this is a good strategy, but they’re halfway to convincing me that I am!

  29. guytaur says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 4:38 pm
    PeeBee

    Ah yes pointing out reality is so being pro LNP.

    Sorry we have a preferential voting system. I can vote Green and direct my preference to Labor so Labor knows I think they are too far to the right. I have stated here my reasons for that. You can disagree however it does not chang the message I and others have given.

    All that Labor will notice is that some poor punters have been tricked into supporting one of the several campaigns aimed at disrupting the election of a majority Labor government. Labor is doing its job. Labor will continue to do just that in spite of the apoplexy of the Liblings.

  32. Shorten announces plans to address eating disorders citing new Medicare item as promised by Turnbull, sends letter to Morrison. Next day Morrison announces plan to address eating disorders inc new Medicare item #auspol

  33. sounds familiar – but they are about to try something different. Meanwhile we,of course, would never be so adventurous, but rather keep doing soething that is not working.
    A basic principle of social security in Germany is this: The best incentive to get people into work is to cut their payments if they miss an appointment, or fail to finish a training course, or refuse to sign an “integration agreement” in which they pledge to do all they can to find a job.

    But this simply doesn’t work, says the Sanktionsfrei (“sanction-free”) organization.
    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-welfare-experiment-sanction-free-basic-security/a-46629933

  34. It’s clear the L-NP a looking for a fight on either national security or boat arrivals. They have form, and even most of the pundits can see it. Yes, it’s putting political strategy above policy, but the L-NP are clearly to blame.

  36. a r @ #1839 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Player One @ #1389 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:11 pm

    Nor does the article explain how spyware can be uploaded only to specific phones given the limitations of existing app portals.

    Possible if you also have the (forced or voluntary) co-operation of the portal owner.

    …and if you know which portal your target installed their app from. If they even bothered to use a portal (easier to avoid on some platforms than others) in the first place.

    Far more plausible,in my opinion, is that the spying is not intended to be individually targeted/limited in scope in this way, with the proviso against ‘systemic weaknesses’ being essentially window-dressing that can mean whatever the government wants it to mean.

    No, a TCN has to be targeted at a particular person. Also, while the bill is a little vague in some areas, there are protections against exposing other people’s private information as a consequence.

    Player One @ #1404 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    For example, triggering should a suspect enter a particular mobile cell, or visit a particular web site, or use a particular keyword etc etc.

    No, not really. At least, not if what you’re trying to tap is the E2E chat app and the E2E chat app doesn’t allow you to specify a recipient via mobile number.

    Same deal with websites; unless you’re trying to tap the web browser and not the chat app, then you have no way of knowing, within the chat app, what websites the user has been visiting in the browser app.

    You could maybe get that sort of a trigger to work by also dragging the OS developer into it. But for a single TCN issued to a developer of a particular chat app that doesn’t do in-app browsing or SMS messaging/phone calls, no, you can’t have triggers like that.

    You don’t haveto do everything in a sincle TCN, and there is no limit to how many TCNs can be issued, as long as they are each targeted at a particular person , so yes – all the things I suggested are in fact very feasible.

    For instance, you could download a special browser update (or messaging app update) to a particular person only, which would only be triggered when run in conjunction with a specific OS update downloaded by the same person.

  40. guytaur….in the real world almost no-one will give a rats about this Libling panic attack. People are occupied with Christmas shopping, visiting relatives, preparing for holidays, catching up with friends, winding up the working year. The very last thing on their mind will be the intricacies of something do not understand, which they feel does not touch them and will in any case be revised next time the Parliament meets.

    If they paid any attention to Parliament at all – and the odds are they didn’t – they will have seen the Liblings making idiots of themselves. They will then have sighed and hoped the election will soon be done with so they can vote against the Follies.

    From Labor’s point of view, a huge risk has been handled. That risk is that some horrible crime might be carried out in which there’s significant loss of life, leading to a snap election fought on public safety and security. The Liberals tried it in Victoria. They would not hesitate to try it in a federal election.

    Thank your lucky stars that Labor have not fallen for the abject stupidities of either the Liberals or their sidekicks, Liblings.

  41. L R, I already use the cloud for my spreadsheets and text type stuff with boxcryptor as the wrapper. I also do a lot of video and audio work so I need better upload speeds for that.

  42. Note Sprocket’s comment last time I posted from this US publication.

    WE ARE DEEP into the worst case scenarios. But as new sentencing memos for Trump associates Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen make all too clear, the only remaining question is how bad does the actual worst case scenario get?

    The potential innocent explanations for Donald Trump’s behavior over the last two years have been steadily stripped away, piece by piece. Special counsel Robert Mueller and investigative reporters have uncovered and assembled a picture of a presidential campaign and transition seemingly infected by unprecedented deceit and criminality, and in regular—almost obsequious—contact with America’s leading foreign adversary.</blockquote.

    https://www.wired.com/story/manafort-cohen-sentencing-trump-mueller-investigation-worst-case-scenario/

  43. Re Gilets Jaunes

    Whilst there appears to be at least one protester back on the streets 50 years after they were there in 68 and the French seem to enjoy a good protest
    The messy Facebook revolution style of it seems a complex mix of memes and ideas, partly or wholly driven by reactionaries and right wing nutters. Using people’s largely legitimate concerns about living wages, the distribution of wealth and corporate domination it seems. What started as a protest against an oil tax also calling for banning of all plastic bottles? Indicative of where things could go in a pretty well educated western European democracy in late 2018?

    Some insight from a leader of the 68 protests too
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/08/daniel-cohn-bendit-gilets-jaunes-macron-may-68-paris-student-protest

    Enough topics in this unofficial ‘charter’ apparently circulating in France to start dozens of PB flame wars from all edges of the political spectrum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/08/paris-under-siege-gilets-jaunes-open-act-iv-fourth-weekend-protests

    The charter
    A charter of gilets jaunes’ “suggestions to end this crisis” has been circulating on Facebook. While far from “official” – the movement has no agreed representatives – it does illustrate the diverse, and sometimes contradictory, nature of their demands:

    Economy/work A full review of taxation, with no citizen to be taxed at more than 25% of income; an immediate 40% increase in the minimum wage, pensions and benefits; “mass hirings” in the state sector to restore quality of services in hospitals, schools, etc; 5m new homes; make banks “smaller”.

    Politics France’s constitution to be rewritten “by the people and for the interests of the people”; lobbying to be banned; France should leave the EU; recover €80bn lost to tax evasion each year; halt and/or reverse all privatisations; removal of “useless” speed cameras; reform of education system, removal of all “ideologies”; quadruple budget of judicial system, which must be simplified, free and accessible for all; break up media monopolies and end cosy relationship between media and the political class; open media up to the people.

    Health/environment 10-year guarantee on products to end planned obsolescence; ban plastic bottles; limit power of pharmaceutical companies; ban GM foods, carcinogenic pesticides, monoculture; reindustrialise France to reduce imports and therefore pollution.

    Geopolitics Pull France out of Nato and foreign wars; end the plunder of French-speaking Africa; prevent migration flows that cannot be welcomed or integrated given current “civilisational crisis”; scrupulous respect for international law and engagements.

  44. The Liblings are few rounds short of a picnic….the Liberals know it too, and can use this to provoke a commotion any time they want. The Liblings never let them down.

  46. briefly

    Yeah yeah the US publications like The Verge are wrong and you are right because you say so.

    Unlike you I can see a business case for Apple moving its users data in Australia onto China’s servers. A lot of good that would do for our security. Still at least we would be doing business with China.

  47. Quoll

    I’m sure his 1968 self would be pretty disappointed to find he becomes “Cohn-Bendit, now a friend and adviser to President Emmanuel Macron”

  48. Question @ #1892 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    L R, I already use the cloud for my spreadsheets and text type stuff with boxcryptor as the wrapper. I also do a lot of video and audio work so I need better upload speeds for that.

    Thanks for the boxcryptor reference. 🙂

    I used to work with a guy who sent all his data to his backup site using tape and a car, and retrieved it the same way. To be fair he was supporting a couple hundred engineers, but it was easy for him to prove his bit rate was superior to anything else, and a lot cheaper as well. (/reminiscing)

  49. The timeline re passage of AA bill according to The Guardian:

    17:41 – A spokesman for the Greens digital rights spokesman, Jordon Steele-John, told Guardian Australia the minor party will oppose all but one of Labor’s encryption bill amendments.

    The Greens are considering Labor’s amendment for an intelligence and security committee review by April. But all the others – including one that tinkers with the definition of “systemic weakness” – will not get Greens support.

    This, I think, answers a query we had here at Guardian HQ: would Labor really risk passing amendments in the Senate that mean the bill won’t pass by Christmas because it has to go back to the house?

    If minor parties and crossbenchers vote down the amendments, the bill can still pass the Senate unamended, with Labor support, and be done by Christmas. Will any of them succeed? We shall see.

    18:22 – The Senate has extended its debate until 7pm.

    We are waiting to see if the Greens support any of Labor’s amendments to the encryption bill. If all the amendments fail, the legislation becomes law, without having to return to the House.

    If even one amendment gets up, then it has to go back to the House, in February, to be properly ticked off on.

    18:34 – Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick told Guardian Australia his party supports Labor’s amendments to the encryption bill.

    Several crossbench parties suspect that Labor is now not going to move its own amendments so the encryption bill will pass this year.

    Curiously, Bill Shorten and Mark Dreyfus have called a press conference … Let’s see if that’s what they’re going to announce.

    18:57 – “We offer to let it go forward, without the amendments which are needed … provided the government agrees on the very first sitting day, to pass the amendments we say are needed.”

    So Labor will pass the bill, unamended on the proviso the government allows the amendments to go through in February.

    But for two months those “needed” amendments will not be part of the legislation.

    Not exactly the greatest pobedobesie I’ve ever seen.

    19:03 – So having lost the game of political chicken, Labor is now rolling over and giving the government what it originally wanted.

    19:06 – If the government won’t agree to put the amendments through, Labor will still pass it.

    19:14 – Oh, it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them.

    19:16 – Mathias Cormann has stepped in to try and stop the Greens from moving the amendments.

    The chamber divides.

    It’s Labor and the government voting against it.

    19:23 – It’s Labor and the government on one side and the Greens, Centre Alliance and Tim Storer on the other.

    19:33 – Labor did give the government what it wanted. You may not agree with the whys and hows, but the government called Labor’s bluff on leaving parliament with the encryption laws unpassed until February, and Labor blinked.

    You can decide for yourselves why.

    And it still stands that the government was prepared to leave the parliament sitting with the encryption laws they have been banging on about as being absolutely crucial to national security for the past month, un-passed, because it didn’t want to deal with the medical evacuation bill loss.

    Neither party has covered itself in glory today.

    ————–

    Labor waited until after the 6pm news to announce its capitulation.

    CA supported LAbor’s amendments and the Greens had indicated it would vote for one of Labor’s amendments so the bill’s passing would have been delayed.

    Labor obviously did not want any of its amendments to get up.

    The crossbench’s suspicions Labor intended to wave through the legislation came to pass.

Comments Page 38 of 44
1 … 37 38 39 … 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *