BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

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  1. What the article says is that the law can require spyware to be uploaded to your phone without your knowledge.

    What the article doesn’t say is that the behaviour of the spyware will be obvious to anyone suitably skilled.

    Nor does the article explain how spyware can be uploaded only to specific phones given the limitations of existing app portals.

    The fact that an app maker has cooperated will become public knowledge in short order.

  2. Late Riser

    Option 2 could be tempting for him. Chucking the deputy leader into crap not long before an election would be a nice kick in the shins. Even bigger bonus for Mal if Josh was less than squeaky clean during the knifing of Turnbull .

  6. Slav G

    The exception being the before you hit send with the government overlooking your shoulder. From the definitions I have seen online that includes preventing the Government doing that because its what China does. Through servers in Apple’s case.

  8. Lizzie

    Talking of mobiles, my phone has recently (couple of months) started chewing up money, using an amount that would have lasted for 6 month in one month. I rarely use it, but have sent a couple of SMSs recently. Is this the problem?

    Do you use your phone for internet at all? Is it a smart phone? If you answers are no for the first, and yes for the second question, make sure that you disable “mobile data” on your smart phone. A lot of applications will go and silently download small amount of data (notifications etc) which your provider will charge a lot for if you don’t have a data package on your phone.

    Other than that guess of mine, I’d look at your bill. It should clearly show where the money is going to.

  10. steve davis, Here’s hoping. It might start a great little dust up between Turnbull and Frydenberg, with Morrison in the middle.

  13. The Libs will of course keep their promise to revisit their amendments, as their word is their bond. They can always be trusted to honour their promises.

    Yes, this defence trotted out smacks of clutching at straws.

    Apparently, the Coalition is simultaneously a bunch of lying (insert insult of choice) and can be trusted to keep its word.

    Go figure.

  14. Cud Chewer @ #1751 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 3:02 pm

    What the article says is that the law can require spyware to be uploaded to your phone without your knowledge.

    Yes. That’s the point.

    What the article doesn’t say is that the behaviour of the spyware will be obvious to anyone suitably skilled.

    Not necessarily. The spyware may be completely undetectable until triggered.

    Nor does the article explain how spyware can be uploaded only to specific phones given the limitations of existing app portals.

    Possible if you also have the (forced or voluntary) co-operation of the portal owner.

    The fact that an app maker has cooperated will become public knowledge in short order.

    No, it will most likely never become public. That’s part of the legislation.

  15. If there is no change by key players on the Nauru situation, a defeat in the House of Representatives seems probable for the Govt at the next sitting.

    Will Scummo go to an election in March to avoid going in the record books?

    We may not get the opportunity to say goodbye to many who are walking out voluntarily. Some have worked hard to improve our nation.

    Many will not come back to Canberra and time will judge them badly. This has been one of the worst Parliaments in history.

    Selfish, unfair and many untruths. Good riddance and may the message from voters leave no doubt that we deserve better.

  16. Slav G

    Thank you.
    It’s a prepaid phone, so I’m quickly made aware when the money is being used up.
    In the days when I read PB at night on the phone, I hardly used any money. As far as I know, mobile data is disabled. I’ve got to the stage that I hardly turn the bloody thing on for fear of more charges.

    I’m suspicious of all the apps that are automatically loaded up, but don’t know to delete them. (The users manual is useless, and my son says “Sorry, I have an iphone”.)
    🙁

  17. Thanks again Cud.
    It did occur to me that even if google slipped the spyware onto android, the source code of which they publish, it wouldn’t take very long for bad guys, with their unlimited resources to generously pay some hungry hackers to completely rewrite it. As you would know most of the custom roms we can use are compiled by amateur individuals, not companies. Good luck writing to all of them!

  18. Lizzie
    1. Turn off background app refresh
    Settings, Background App Refresh > OFF
    so that you have be in the App for it to Refresh
    You might leave VicFires App Background App Refresh > ON and leave notifications for VicFires ON

    turn off automatic updates

    To stop an app manually via the processes list, head to Settings > Developer Options > Processes (or Running Services) and click the Stop button. Voila! To Force Stop or Uninstall an app manually via the Applications list, head to Settings > Applications > Application manager and select the app you want to modify.Aug 1, 2018

  21. Boerwar @ #1711 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    Tristo
    Corbyn is a prisoner of the Crazy Left in the British Labor Party.
    What is the single biggest set of issues facing Corbyn?
    Brexit.
    The general situation is that the Crazy Left of Labor and the Crazy Right of the Tories both want to Brexit.
    So, what does Corbyn do?
    Corbyn makes up Crazy Far Left stuff.
    Corbyn is STILL running around now essentially promising that the UK can have a Brexit with all the benefits of the EU with none of the problems.
    Corbyn talks about Brexit as if the Irish border issue does not exist.
    He is asserting that the EU will re-open negotations following the ascension of a Labor Government and that he will be able to re-negotiate a better outcome for the EU.
    Corbyn has yet to acknowledge that Brexit is already having dire consequences for the UK economy.
    Far Right and Far Left crazies have a few things in common.
    They promise the utterly impossible. They deliver wreckage.
    They ignore any practical consideration that does not fit in with their ideology.
    Corbyn and Farage are two sides of the charlatan coin.

    Corbyn is the Labour rank and file champion – and don’t the Blairites hate that fact.

  22. P1

    Spyware is dtectable to those with the right skills even if dormant.

    Besides it cannot be “triggered” without there being network activity.

    So no, there is no such thing as undetectable spyware.

  23. Tristo

    I can’t see it. Scomo wants to trumpet his supposed economic superiority. He will believe that an election budget will benefit his chances.

  25. Rex Douglas @ #1772 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:15 pm

    Boerwar @ #1711 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    Tristo
    Corbyn is a prisoner of the Crazy Left in the British Labor Party.
    What is the single biggest set of issues facing Corbyn?
    Brexit.
    The general situation is that the Crazy Left of Labor and the Crazy Right of the Tories both want to Brexit.
    So, what does Corbyn do?
    Corbyn makes up Crazy Far Left stuff.
    Corbyn is STILL running around now essentially promising that the UK can have a Brexit with all the benefits of the EU with none of the problems.
    Corbyn talks about Brexit as if the Irish border issue does not exist.
    He is asserting that the EU will re-open negotations following the ascension of a Labor Government and that he will be able to re-negotiate a better outcome for the EU.
    Corbyn has yet to acknowledge that Brexit is already having dire consequences for the UK economy.
    Far Right and Far Left crazies have a few things in common.
    They promise the utterly impossible. They deliver wreckage.
    They ignore any practical consideration that does not fit in with their ideology.
    Corbyn and Farage are two sides of the charlatan coin.

    Corbyn is the Labour rank and file* champion and don’t the Blairites hate that fact.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    *Conditions apply for Pro-EU or Jewish Labour Rank and File. See in-party for details.

  26. Cud Chewer @ #1719 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    I will be voting Labor.

    The legislation Labor voted for was wrong.

    I don’t agree that it was “good politics” to support the legislation.

    Part of why I think that is precisely because its a third order issue to most people.

    We voters should really hold our politicians to a higher standard of delivery.

    To reward such stupidity only encourages more stupidity.

  27. SlavG

    To be more specific its the use of the word intercept here I agree with.

    Australia just passed tough new legislation that requires tech companies to hand over user data when requested by law enforcement, even if that means building a backdoor into their encryption. The decision has huge implications for communications companies, not just in Australia but also across the rest of the world.

    The legislation not only compels companies to hand over user data they have easy access to, but also to build the ability for themselves to intercept this data when they don’t.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/7/18130806/australia-access-and-assistance-encryption-bill-2018-facebook-google-apple-respond

  29. Cud Chewer @ #1772 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 3:16 pm

    P1

    Spyware is dtectable to those with the right skills even if dormant.

    Besides it cannot be “triggered” without there being network activity.

    So no, there is no such thing as undetectable spyware.

    If you are a terrorist silly enough to download an unknown update or an app (or have them downloaded automatically) then how can you tell if you are getting what you expected? If the developer of both the app and the portal are involved, you cannot possibly tell.

    And there are dozens of ways that spyware can be “triggered” without network activity. For example, triggering should a suspect enter a particular mobile cell, or visit a particular web site, or use a particular keyword etc etc.

    And, the triggering may also not result in any detectable network activity. It could, for instance, simply hold onto data the owner of the phone thought they’d deleted.

    So many possibilities!

  33. Labor current global warming policy – Adani and broader Galilee basin coal to go ahead
    Despite 80% of their own voters asking they can it
    We’ll see whether their position changes, a factional political fix or acknowledging the circumstances and doing the best thing

    Seems most of many attempted rationalisations from the Lab partisans here seem to be falling in line with Grog’s perspective. Rolling out the party line response
    Say nothing, do nothing
    With just a dash of telling everyone else to just shut up and do as you’re told or else

    Though if Labor are a shoe in, why shouldn’t it be seen as a great opportunity to demand more by voting for Greens or other minors and independents first, as the Libs are a write off all by themselves.

  44. The question is – if indeed May has to call a general UK election – will the Blairites work to undermine Corbyn’s campaign…?

  45. Margot Ascot?

    (The one who purportedly said to Jean Harlow – “It’s pronounced “Margo”- the ‘t’ is silent, as it is in ‘Harlow”..)

  47. The French people clearly of the mind that Macron’s neo-lib tendencies aren’t acceptable. Good on them.

    Chris Bowen’s neo-lib tendencies worry me as he will likely be treasurer very soon.

  48. Peter Stanton @ #1749 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    I am a very tolerant person but there is one type of person who will always annoy me. That is the type who seems to constantly look for a reason to be offended and when they find one will not let it go. There seems to be at least one of these people on this blog. It is a complete waste of time to argue with them because they will just find more reasons to be offended. Since I have already used up my biblicaly allocated three score and ten I try not to waste too much time

    Right on the money, Peter.

    So much scrolling. But thats life.

  49. let’s see, 1918. End of WW1. pEOPLE are happy WW! is over but want change. Socialism is trendy. Has to be someone with resources but whom people liked. Was it one of the women who were force fed in gaol when on a hunger strike for women’s suffrage?

  50. RE THE POLL PREDICTION.
    Put Jeffemu down for the guesstimate of 56 goodies and 44 to the rabble.

    And I will confirm I am voting Labor.

    For those that kindly asked earlier about my paintings,(I’ve been out visiting the Grandkids) this is another one of my works which I titled “Lucky Buggers, arn’t we”. Apologies for the quality of the photo. My shocking camera work.
    “Lucky Buggers, arn’t we” was a difficult one for me to paint, but it has been stirring in the back my head for quiet some time. There is a lot going on with this one. I wish I knew the answer to this worlds problem. The work is an acrylic on canvas 70cm x 50cm.

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