BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

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  1. Countess Constance Markiewicz won Dublin/St Patrick for Sinn Fein. She was in prison for her role as deputy commander of the Citizens’ Army at St Stephen’s Green during the Rising.
    She was physically unable to attend Westminster due to incarceration but in any case followed the rule abstentionism and instead claimed to have been elected for Dublin/St Patrick in the First Dail

    http://goo.gl/images/8cw4Sy

  2. Catching up on earlier comments….

    Boerwar your comment at 1.11 pm re far left and far right absolutely is spot on!
    And Corbyn re brexit as well!

    Guytaur

    Andrews and Shorten are on the same page re terrorism and law and order.
    But the whole notion that somehow Shorten has to emulate Andrews to succeed federally, is bloody stupid. Seriously get real

  3. One of the advantages of being in Government is not just that you can prosecute your agenda, but, especially if your friends control most of the mainstream media, you get to control what is being talked about. Just look at the main topics of conversation here today – encryption and asylum seekers.

    So Labor is ‘hiding’ from these topics? But what us the Government hiding from? They won’t even talk about climate change, for example. In 2013, they actually hid from most of their agenda, including changes to Medicare, effectively withdrawing unemployment benefits from the under 25s,Tertiary education ‘reforms’ that the education spokesman was so excited about he forgot to tell us about them before the election, conditional social security, increasing the pension age and more and more privatisations.

    So what are they hiding from now? Probably much of the same.

  5. I see Tony Burke out in the press today reminding Ged that she’s only a voting number for Labor and to forget about the asylum seekers being tortured on Nauru.

  6. Victoria

    Morrison got the message out of the Victorian election. He was very keen in QT to pretend the LNP is delivering on promises.

    Thats what Andrews has done. Yes even on the terror fear campaign. Federal Labor has not. Instead of moving its 173 amendments it voted against them. Out of fear of the fear campaign that the so called pragmatists are citing as the reason for voting against it.

    Thats the politics and thats the difference. Mr Shorten like it or not has shown he does not have the mettle in standing up to the LNP on these issues Andrews has had.

    I say that as an admirer of the way Mr Shorten has stood up on LGBTI issues he has got that right.

    You don’t have to agree with me but you can’t have your own facts. Labor voted against its own amendment;s with partisans here defending it as an evil choice because we have to fear the fear campaign.

  7. Jeffemu
    That is an intriguing one. It is quite good. I will look at it some more. Is that a flood the couple are looking at, and is that Pauline Hanson in the portrait? Or the little girl?

  9. Puffytmd @ #1807 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    Jeffemu
    That is an intriguing one. It is quite good. I will look at it some more. Is that a flood the couple are looking at, and is that Pauline Hanson in the portrait? Or the little girl?

    I think they are looking at that street in Syria that became famous when a photo of it went viral.

  11. Daniel Andrews isn’t afraid to step up –

    “A sense of compassion is not only in the best interests of these children and their families. It is also in the best interests of our status as a fair and decent nation. There are infants amongst the group who were born in this country. Sending them to Nauru will needlessly expose them to a life of physical and emotional trauma.

    “It is wrong. Medical professionals tell us this. Humanitarian agencies tell us this. Our values tell us this too. Sending these children and their families to Nauru is not the Australian way.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/06/victoria-will-take-refugee-children-says-premier-daniel-andrews

  14. I think they are looking at that street in Syria that became famous when a photo of it went viral.”

    Agreed. It’s a war-devastated cityscape.

  16. Last Newspoll for the year (whether tonight or next Sunday) – put me down for a 56-44 to Labor. Hubris I know, but hey – after the encryption ‘debate’ on this thread, I need a pick me up. Feeling optimistic.

  17. Thanks Peg, as I expected, Labor voted with the government to stop an amendment moved by the Greens.

    Calling it a Labor amendment is a little rich when they didn’t move it.

    What you and Guytaur stated sounded like typical Green Labor bashing, that on the face of it just didn’t sound logical.

    I guess it is SOP for Greens, bash Labor, even if it is not true.

  18. PeeBee

    Nice spin. Yes it was a Green motion. Moving the Labor amendments. That was the point I made. All 173 after before being told they were so bad for only supporting one.

  23. Cricket is on the TV here but I have moved to another room. Have the feeling I am jinxing the Aussies. Wicket falling each tme I stopped to watch.

  27. Diogenes says: Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 4:18 pm

    Shaun Marsh to the crease.

    ************************************************************

    BK will be glued to his TV awaiting a century now 🙂

  28. guytaur

    Thats the politics and thats the difference. Mr Shorten like it or not has shown he does not have the mettle in standing up to the LNP on these issues Andrews has had.

    Yes, Andrews has stood up to and stared down the politically difficult issues – Shorten has repeatedly shirked them.

  32. Guytaur @4:04pm, you, I and probably millions more Australians want Labor to “stand up to” the Government. But Labor itself wants primarily not to “stand up to” the Government, but to “become” the Government. There is a fundamental difference in the constituencies that need to support you in order to succeed in each of these two endeavours. The left wing base in this country is undoubtedly sufficient for the former, but the latter requires support from at least some voters who voted for the Turnbull Coalition Government in 2016. (And indeed many who voted for the Abbott Coalition in 2013!)

    I don’t think the Assistance and Access Bill should have become law. But I don’t assign the primary responsibility for its passage upon Labor, but rather upon the Coalition. Not only because the Bill was the Coalition’s idea, but also because they wickedly threatened to blame Labor for any tragedy that occurred over the Xmas/NY period. Even though this would be ridiculous, this sort of mud has a track record of sticking, unfair though this is.

    I do think pressure ought to be applied to Labor to rectify or repeal that law once in government. But I think it is an unfair pile-on to berate Labor now for their vote, and one which can only hurt Labor’s chances of actually winning the next election.

    And surely, all of us on the Left want Labor to actually defeat the Morrison Coalition Government next election.

  35. The redhead is ‘our’ imbecile from Qld. You will notice that her portrait is above and bigger then JC on the table.

    The woman at the window is pregnant. The girl on the lounge is holding a dreamcatcher and also an upside down world globe.

    The street is a destroyed street as per those splattered all over the world news.

    The welcome mat is out but not being used.

    I think we all know about the poor drowned child.
    It was a hard painting for me to paint.

  36. If I were to watch the cricket it would be with the volume off such is the poor quality of the commentary.

    Somehow we need to get Geoff Lemon onto either the radio or TV commentary.

  38. Sohar

    I like Daniel Andrews comments. I wish Labor would listen. However I do believe Labor is sticking with its regional solution. When in government its going to be interesting to see what it does with any new applicants. I am expecting Labor to end the secrecy around the boat turn backs.

    Thats in their long term political interests especially if they have not been working all this time. If it works there won’t be any left in the camps that have their indefinite detention ended.

    Thats what I would be thinking if I was Bill Shorten. I want better policy on immigration and proving the validity or lack of it of boat turn backs is what it rests on. Labor is right to focus on keeping that policy awful as I think offshore processing is.

    Edit: Labor shutting down the debate will look like being strong on the policy and stop one angle of attack by the LNP even though they will say the motion being moved is proof Labor is weak on border “protection”

  39. Cud Chewer @ #1344 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:31 pm

    I will be voting Labor.

    The legislation Labor voted for was wrong.

    I don’t agree that it was “good politics” to support the legislation.

    Part of why I think that is precisely because its a third order issue to most people.

    And even if viewed purely as a political transaction, the costs are unbalanced.

    You’re risking the vote of the young (and even middle-aged) cohort who use technology and are savvy enough to understand that what the government wants to do is wrong, in order to shore up votes from the cohort of people so ancient that they’ve lost the mental capacity to see an obvious terror scare campaign for the FUD that it is. The latter cohort is almost certainly much smaller than the former, and constantly diminishing.

    Player One @ #1389 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:11 pm

    Nor does the article explain how spyware can be uploaded only to specific phones given the limitations of existing app portals.

    Possible if you also have the (forced or voluntary) co-operation of the portal owner.

    …and if you know which portal your target installed their app from. If they even bothered to use a portal (easier to avoid on some platforms than others) in the first place.

    Far more plausible,in my opinion, is that the spying is not intended to be individually targeted/limited in scope in this way, with the proviso against ‘systemic weaknesses’ being essentially window-dressing that can mean whatever the government wants it to mean.

    Player One @ #1404 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    For example, triggering should a suspect enter a particular mobile cell, or visit a particular web site, or use a particular keyword etc etc.

    No, not really. At least, not if what you’re trying to tap is the E2E chat app and the E2E chat app doesn’t allow you to specify a recipient via mobile number.

    Same deal with websites; unless you’re trying to tap the web browser and not the chat app, then you have no way of knowing, within the chat app, what websites the user has been visiting in the browser app.

    You could maybe get that sort of a trigger to work by also dragging the OS developer into it. But for a single TCN issued to a developer of a particular chat app that doesn’t do in-app browsing or SMS messaging/phone calls, no, you can’t have triggers like that.

  43. The cricket commentary is less than stellar. Have they all lost the skill of calling cricket?

    These days the highlight of an ashes tour isnt the cricket but the opportunity to listen to BBC radio coverage.

  44. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:53 pm
    Bloody hell, I’m finding it difficult to tell the difference between purported Greens supporters & Liberals on this site
    Is there a difference?

    There is very little practical difference between the Liberals and the Liblings. They are co-conspirators in the effort to prevent the election of a majority Labor government.

  49. These days the highlight of an ashes tour isnt the cricket but the opportunity to listen to BBC radio coverage.

    I was listening to the cricket in the car the other day and thought the ABC commentary was pretty good. They’ve gotten rid of that silly man who used to giggle and tell sexist, off-colour jokes and the commentary has improved immeasurably as a result.

  50. Lizzie

    This is the fine line Labor are walking. Keeping the turn back but ending indefinite detention.

    The problem is some see indefinite detention AS offshore processing. As someone who opposes offshore processing I know the difference and do give Labor credit for what its policy actually is, not what it is not.

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