The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
“The answer is simple: either vote for Labor warts and all, or invite another ScoMo government to coast into office on the outrage they and their scumbag mates in the media set you up to express so predictably.’
Nicely put.
Dan Andrews tweeted about the Morrison govt
They’ve even got $3bn locked away that’s earmarked for Victoria. But they won’t release the funds. That money could be spent on the North East Link. The infrastructure Victorians want – and our state needs. It’s not right. And we’ll never stop fighting for our fair share.
I wrote to the Prime Minister with a very simple message: Time and time again, the Federal Government has shortchanged Victoria. A quarter of the population lives here – and growing. But we only get 10 per cent of Canberra’s infrastructure funding.
So we have it. Disagree with Labor you are moralising, and say Labor has to cop all the responsibility.
This despite the fact the argument is Labor voted with the government of the day and thats seen as a bad political strategy in supporting policy itself has said is bad.
That is unless you are 100% for Labor you are sanctimonious and moralising
Boerwar @ #1418 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:42 am
A share price reversal is the only one of those items that is even remotely possible between now and election time, and that all depends on what happens in the rest of the world. If Wall Street tanks, so will the ASX. If it soars, so will the ASX.
Wages are going nowhere over the next 12 months, let alone between now and election time.
House prices will continue their decline.
The only thing they’ve got is terrorism. “We are strong. Labor is weak”. We’re seeing it already.
WWP
We don’t have First Past the Post voting you can vote for a minor party and preference Labor in our system and still see a majority Labor government win.
As the polls are indicating. Such handwringing from Labor diehards on here.
I’ve read them all Guytaur, but they are all someone else’s definitions. Most of them are fine, but as with all definitions they are subject to interpretations.
Please let me know where have I stated that I don’t like some quote from Craig Federuchi, or any of the links you provided for that matter?
All I asked (out of curiosity) is, what is YOUR interpretation of what end-to-end encryption really means? Nothing else and nothing more. Again, your interpretation, not someone else’s that you’ve linked. I haven’t argued for or against anything you’ve said or linked so far.
Australia has come along way since 2013 when it was 12th largest economy
The Big Breather – why Australia’s economy now ranks outside the Top 20
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-big-breather-why-australias-economy-now-ranks-outside-the-top-20/
Slav G
Sorry I did not notice my referral to P1 fell off. Mea Culpa. You have said no such thing.
I agree with the definitions I posted. Especially the NO THIRD Parties bit. Some of them make clear this includes government third parties.
Do people really believe that Joe/Sephine public are currently standing around BBQ’s with the data stuff as the main topic? I would think stagnant wages, increase living costs and the hopeless LNP are more likely to be the topics.
I dont think the public give two hoots about political tactics.At the last election campaign the sides went hammer and tong for 8 weeks and it hardly changed the TPP from start to finish. People have already made their mind up well before major elections nowadays.
Tristo
Corbyn is a prisoner of the Crazy Left in the British Labor Party.
What is the single biggest set of issues facing Corbyn?
Brexit.
The general situation is that the Crazy Left of Labor and the Crazy Right of the Tories both want to Brexit.
So, what does Corbyn do?
Corbyn makes up Crazy Far Left stuff.
Corbyn is STILL running around now essentially promising that the UK can have a Brexit with all the benefits of the EU with none of the problems.
Corbyn talks about Brexit as if the Irish border issue does not exist.
He is asserting that the EU will re-open negotations following the ascension of a Labor Government and that he will be able to re-negotiate a better outcome for the EU.
Corbyn has yet to acknowledge that Brexit is already having dire consequences for the UK economy.
Far Right and Far Left crazies have a few things in common.
They promise the utterly impossible. They deliver wreckage.
They ignore any practical consideration that does not fit in with their ideology.
Corbyn and Farage are two sides of the charlatan coin.
Cat
Thanks Cat, but I would consider myself more of an insider than an expert 🙂 because I get tripped up by my own interpretations of those standards on regular basis. This is after almost 20 years in the field.
This is why I’m genuinely curious about what Guytaur’s own interpretation is.
billie
It has not just been the economy slipping away since the Coalition spivs and shonks arrived.
.
.
Australia has once again slipped in a global corruption index,
Updated 22 Feb 2018, 5:08am
Australia’s corruption score had slipped eight points over the past six years, a trend which was described as a “notable decrease”.
Australia scored 85 out of 100 in 2012, and 77 out of 100 in 2017.
The lower the score, the higher the perception of corruption.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-22/australia-slips-in-global-corruption-rank/9472114
@Boerwar
I personally read “hard-left” Corbynite stuff such as The Canary and Novara Media and I find really nothing to be afraid of. I don’t believe a Corbyn Labour government would turn Britain into Venezuela or be more authoritarian than the current Tory government.
Corbyn’s agenda was mainstream Labour policy before Margaret Thatcher was elected as Prime Minister. Also Corbyn’s view on the EU is similar to myself, in that it needs to reformed to make it more democratic and benefit the working people as opposed to the corporations. This view of the EU is similar to Yanis Varoufakis who he has dialogue with. Corbyn has been very astute when it came to Brexit, because many of those who voted for Brexit in 2016, voted for Labour in 2017. It has been the Tory Brexiters would have been a hindrance in whole Brexit debacle.
Tricot
See twitter. Its a topic of discussion like it or not. I am not saying its the be all issue that is going to decide the election as my referral to polls should have made clear.
Its only Labor partisans so far that have used phrases like talking around bbq’s talking about the data laws.
I will say it might come up because the LNP certainly is saying you can’t trust Labor on security legislation. The fear campaign.
I have said a lot of voters are changing their vote on it and twitter is evidence of that. Some say nah they were never Labor voters anyway. I thought they were before the legislation passed maybe they were not. However its still a change in the public discourse. Like it or not.
I did not say that voters were changing votes to the point that Labor would not win in a landslide or even approach becoming a minority government.
I have said it was enough to change my primary vote. I am still putting Labor before any of the right swing parties first.
Yet the way people post on here you would think I have said due to that legislation I am now going to vote for Fraser Anning or the LNP
Edit: And also that means I never post anything positive about the ALP and am just a troll.
@crikeynews tweets
Why ‘Made In Australia’ is now a warning to avoid our tech products
https://buff.ly/2ro44hC https://twitter.com/crikey_news/status/1071601333562761217/photo/1
@guytaur
I predict that the data retention laws is going to increase the Greens vote, which will help them to win Senate seats in probably every state. These preferences in the lower house will still overwhelming flow to Labor.
If the Greens win senate seats at the expense of the right-wing populists, more than merrier. Few would miss Fraser Anning and David Leyonhjelm being in the senate, I think many would cheer.
Interval.
I will be voting Labor.
The legislation Labor voted for was wrong.
I don’t agree that it was “good politics” to support the legislation.
Part of why I think that is precisely because its a third order issue to most people.
Tristo
Thats my view too 🙂
The big losers are going to be the right wing. I am thinking NSW LNP landslide style. Not expecting another Victoria.
Morrison is trying to get Shorten to fold on the medivac bill just to save his own arse in the parliament.
You can see the desperation in the news articles:
PM doubts Labor leader’s comprehension of Nauru amendments, saying: “You can’t contract out border protection to two doctors on Skype.”
tripitaka @ #1434 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 8:59 am
Thanks for the link. Interesting reading. 🙂
@guytaur
Hopefully the right-wing populists in the minor parties along with the Coalition suffer big losses. It is a outrage a group which comprises at most 10% of the voting population have this amount of influence on federal politics. It was evident when the Coalition senators voted for Pauline Hanson’s “It’s OK to be white motion”
I oppose these types on principle, because they are racist, misogynistic, bigoted, homophobic and transphobic. When you have Senators and House of Represenatives members in tears after people such as Fraser Anning or David Leyonhjelm have spoken, then we have a problem.
Guytaur, ‘The ones the Greens voted for.’
I am sorry to harp on about this, but I cannot believe Labor raised an amendment only to vote against it.
I am not sure which amendment you are referring to. To wit: ‘The ones the Greens voted for’.
If you could be a little more specific, I could check it out.
CC
Yep. I disagree with the a terror attack will be laid at Labor’s feet by voters argument of why its good politics. I think thats selling voters short.
Can someone explain how the feds intercept the plain text data on my phone with spyware? I don’t have anything to do with Apple or Google, (though I use an android phone because you can completely replace the os, which I do so regularly). I don’t store anything on my phone either. It’s just a browser and phone, obviously.
PB
Richard Di Natalie tweeted he was voting the Labor amendments. Many on here have posted the Greens should have voted for more than one. Despite that all that was needed to delay the bill.
If you want detail the live blogs of the day and Hansard record them
Yeah, some self-regarding wordsmiths in here. Despite them being sick and tired.
Every election I can remember the call is “it is to redress the balance between bosses and workers, tax collection and allocation, private v public education, housing” etc etc etc. every single one. These are simply rallying cries similar to the Libs anti-union stuff, the claim of being better economic managers, masters of defence and security. But after all these years of both governments this is getting a bit old.
Both parties have moved well to the right. Maybe Labor should just be saying “it’s our turn now”. As it is, they are not staking a claim for any mandate at all. Changes to dividend imputation is an exception, unfortunately I think the supposed budget savings will prove disappointing.
Tristo
I see that you have missed the essential point about Corbyn’s Brexit.
The Brexit vote next Tuesday means that Brexit is finally catching up with Corbyn.
His working option, which is telling very, very big lies about what is possible, will hit the wall.
There are four live options: Remain, May’s Brexit, Referendum No 2 and Hard Brexit.
After Tuesday, the Great Vacillator will have to own one of the four.
Given that his Far Left Crazies want to Brexit, that gives him May’s Brexit or Hard Brexit.
He SAYS that he would be able to renegotiate and improve on May’s Brexit.
But it takes two to tango and the EU has already said that it will not renegotiate May’s Brexit.
As noted previously, Corbyn has positioned himself nicely astride May’s Petard.
Millions of people rely on Labor to win government so they can restore penalty rates, reform workplace laws, reform taxation to make it fairer for lower and middle class and provide well funded schools, hospitals and public service.
This Twitter talk about encyrption is a topic for privileged class. Labor voters and supporters like me dont have the luxury to turn our back on the party over such issues just so we can feel good about ourselves and remain politically pure to claim moral high ground.
Jerry B, Cud Chewer outlined something along those lines earlier today. (You might have to page back a few hours.)
(cheeky) Personally I’m wondering if we will see a resurgence of Windows 8 phones in Australia. I wonder how many people still know how to write spyware for them? (/cheeky)
Jerry
By default the software on your phone will automatically update apps. That means new code is transferred to and then run on your phone.
There is an act of trust that the makers of the apps you have installed won’t upload to you malicious software.
Now the government can go to the app publisher and insist that they add a “capability”. In other words, malicious software. That then gets transferred to your phone and it runs within the same environment and with the same security permissions as the app.
The app is free to see what you are typing. It stores that and later retransmits that data to the government. Thus rendering the usual privacy meaningless.
Jerry B @ #1727 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:37 pm
Ask guytaur to explain. He’s our resident PB expert! 🙂
Guytaur, ‘Richard Di Natalie tweeted he was voting the Labor amendments.’
Don’t know what RDN tweet helps with my quest.
What I wanted to know which amendment Labor raised and voted against.
I have a funny feeling it didn’t happen.
Thanks Late,
I wouldn’t trust windows if my life depended on it. For desktops it’s Linux only!
Lovey
I would say that Labor and Liberal are about as far apart from each other as they have been during my lifetime.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/09/turnbull-challenged-to-give-evidence-at-senate-inquiry-into-444m-reef-grant
Talking of mobiles, my phone has recently (couple of months) started chewing up money, using an amount that would have lasted for 6 month in one month. I rarely use it, but have sent a couple of SMSs recently. Is this the problem?
@Boerwar
Whatever you believe on Corbyn’s handling of Brexit. I predict Labour is not going to get the blame for a no-deal Brexit, it will be the Brexiters. Because those people said only good things would come from Brexit. A No-Deal Brexit is going to convince a lot of people otherwise.
Here’s a clearly written article by Adam Turner an award-winning Australian technology journalist and co-host of weekly podcast Vertical Hold: Behind The Tech News:
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/what-do-the-new-encryption-laws-mean-for-you-20181207-p50kvh.html
Thanks Cud. There must be thousands, if not millions of apps out there. Are the feds writing to all of them? I only use OSS btw.
Another issue that’s needs discussion is the non disclosure to the public. Apparently software makers cannot tell people about the new vulnerability. I presume if you ask them they can lie to you.
Lovey being dishonest about Labor I see about not committing to anything.
Off the top of my head they are seeking to roll back negative gearing, removing the halving of capital gains tax, restoring penalty rates, commiting to 50% renewables and %45 reduction in emissions by 2030.
Far far better than the coalition, nothing right wing about it either!
But of course it will be never be good enough for some, they would rather 100% of nothing, so they can continue to push the most dishonest lib\lab line.
steve davis @ #1738 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:52 pm
I should read the article, but what are his options?
1. He doesn’t go.
2. He goes and drops Frydenberg in it.
3. He goes and drops himself in it.
My guess is that he’ll do the first one.
lizzie @ #1739 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 2:52 pm
You may have been caught by a “premium service” scam.
https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/types-of-scams/buying-or-selling/mobile-premium-services
This link contains details about what to do about it.
Slav G
This bit from what Pegasus just posted is all I have said about end to end encryption.
I think the focus of criticism for the encryption laws passed last week should fall on the Coalition at the moment. I also think Labor are well aware the focus of such criticism will rightly fall on them if they neglect to rectify or repeal the law once they are elected to office.
PeeBee
Why don’t you go through The Guardian Australia’s Politics Live thread for December 6 and find out for yourself. Then peruse Hansard for the same day to verify.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/dec/06/government-morrison-nauru-energy-encryption-politics-live-shorten-labor-liberal
I am a very tolerant person but there is one type of person who will always annoy me. That is the type who seems to constantly look for a reason to be offended and when they find one will not let it go. There seems to be at least one of these people on this blog. It is a complete waste of time to argue with them because they will just find more reasons to be offended. Since I have already used up my biblicaly allocated three score and ten I try not to waste too much time
LR
I suppose Keneally wants him to go if he feels like pouring more shit over the Libs,its another outlet for him.