The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
Steve777 @ #1397 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:33 am
In return, ScoMoFo could promise not to move the Israeli embassy.
Mark Kenny has missed the Greens hysteria on encryption
sprocket
Mark Kenny has missed the Labor hysteria defending passing the encryption legislation.
@lenoretaylor tweets
but the encryption laws do NOT only apply to terrorism suspects, they apply to anyone suspected of committing a federal offence that carries a jail term of more than three years #insiders #importantdetail
Saava showing she is a turnbullite!
Good god, Savva is off the planet with religious schools teaching their ‘faith’. This is just stupid.
Twitter sees it.
@anushi_srini tweets
You have to wonder what hysterical race baiting was planned by this noxious Govt if that legislation wasn’t passed…I only see one group terrorising people here…the govt #auspol #insiders
The annoying thing about the present discussion on Insiders about Labor, Nat Sec and Boats! is that none of the journos are prepared to say Morrison’s “threat to national security” allegation against Labor is a hideous lie.
They talk in public, on national television, about the public, and how they will react and be manipulated like Pavlov’s dogs, with the clear underline to the whole thing being that journalists will just sit back and allow the lie to be spread, and in fact will pretend to take it seriously.
Pretty disgusting.
sprocket_ @ #1402 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:34 am
He isn’t alone.
From last night….
a r
I wasnt referring to laissez-faire capitalism. The whole idea that capitalism can only work properly if it is completely unrestrained is a ruse – a cunning plan to subvert democracy for personal gain.
Your second point. It is absolutely the right of any sovereign state to choose its economic system. Capitalism is not a holy grail and others may well exist that will fit as well or better within our democratic system. But any political and economic will always have pressures put on it by those who seek greater power and fortune (at the expense of the people and even the State). Power works like that. It is no accident. These pressures are constant; like water they build up – they find holes and widen them, cracks and extend them. They evolve. As such our political system, geared with checks against unfettered power, balanced by power sharing with an almost universal sufferage, must also adapt and develop new checks against these pressures.
So my point is that the failure lies in the political realm – with a lack of good regulation and new regulation to meet the new pressures. I do not argue that capitalism is the best system. But I do wonder at what the mechanism for changing it to something else would look like.
Now onto Bigus Stickus – Energy, power prices, and the sleeper – Climate Change
This will swing many more votes than asylum seekers, and the Liberals are a shambles on this
Savva showing you can’t defend the indefensible.
Linked by BK above: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/22/indigenous-group-hid-more-than-2m-in-payments-from-adani-mining-giant
I wonder who else is receiving secret payments from Adani.
confessions
Yes. When faith comes into the discussion as a reason to have discrimination then reason seems to go out the window.
People have human rights that religious belief has to give way to or they do not.
Thats the Freedom from religion part. The funny thing is these same people point to ISIS beheading gay people to try and say see we are better.
confessions
Yes. When faith comes into the discussion as a reason to have discrimination then reason seems to go out the window.
People have human rights that religious belief has to give way to or they do not.
Thats the Freedom from religion part. The funny thing is these same people point to ISIS beheading gay people to try and say see we are better.
Good morning all,
If there is going to be a early election perhaps Turnbull did labor a favour by forcing the delay in National Conference.
Delegates will be very very focused and at the end of the Conference on the 18th labor will have all its ducks in a row ready to go and Shorten will have delivered a election eve/ campaign opening speech all under the spotlight of national media.
We shall see.
PS I do realise it is close to Santa coming and the good citizens of Australia will be focused on other things but take what you can get.
Cheers and a good day to all.
LOL so it was Turnbull’s hopeless judgement that in the end saved Craig Kelly. Thanks Mal, just STFU next time!
Three things might save the Coalition: rapidly rising real wages, house price fall reversed and share price fall reversed.
Steve777 @ #1397 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 8:33 am
I don’t think the Indonesian government would be of a mind to do Morrison any favours after the Jerusalem announcement.
Amy (Guardian) made the quip that Bigus Stickus is now a wooden spoon wrapped in bubble wrap.
guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 9:34 am
…
This is my point. Remember Labor got blamed for the “terror attack” in the Victorian election campaign.
….
Remind me again how successful that tactic was for the Liberals, I missed it.
Labor did not have the numbers to vote is down; even with green support; the Greens have proven themselves unreliable again and again.
I think the Greens failure to support the amendments Labor wanted to put though to make the legislation at least work highlights how unreliable the Greens are on serious issues.
Labor got the best out come they could with the hand they had; and the hand only included a very soggy green card.
‘Just don’t stuff up,’ Labor says, and bold policy goes out the window
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/dec/09/just-dont-stuff-up-labor-says-and-bold-policy-goes-out-the-window
BB
Thats where the pragmatists talking about the fear campaign that Labor is scared of are correct.
The media amplify’s the scare campaign without calling it out for the BS it is.
Thats why I have pointed to the Victorian Campaign. They did this to Andrews. Threw African gangs, Weak on Terror the whole kitchen sink of fear campaigns at Andrews. Labor does not need to fear these campaigns anymore.
Not when its winning the LNP heartland seats of Hawthorn.
Fair point.
frednk
Ah yes the unreliable Greens that voted the Labor amendments because Labor wouldn’t.
You are too partisan in the weeds. Ignoring all the working together the Greens and Labor actually do.
Eg Labor voting for the Greens motions on refugees. The Greens are so unreliable that Labor can vote for Greens motions.
Edit: Its a pretty pathetic argument to justify Labor not voting on the principle it should not support bad legislation that has turned us into a police state
I have read that article by Jerico and it appears that he is running on the assumption that labor has shut up shop and there will no more policy announcements.
He could not be further from the truth
Cheers.
Guytaur @ 9:07
“So Labor get the message a lot of voters are changing their vote 1 to other parties to protest Labor caving yes caving on the encryption legislation. They are not suddenly voting for the LNP”
I wonder where you are getting YOUR message from? the local Greens coven?
I speak to a number of people, and my impression is that very few, outside this fevered Blog give a rats about encryption. If they would like the two parties of Government to be in lockstep about anything ,it’s security. They’d also like to stop torturing people off shore.
In this neck of the woods, the idea of preferencing the Greens over anyone provokes laughter. One person suggested you might as well vote for Willy Wonker.
My impression of your posts is-that you haven’t changed your vote at all. I also note the enthusiastic reception that your views elicited from that swinging voter Rex
Here’s a daring suggestion – maybe religious schools could teach about love and compassion, which are core values for both Christianity and Islam.
Pathetic effort for the winner of the Matt Price moment. Fail.
Why are they praising Tony Smith for doing a great job ‘under difficult circumstances’?
Gippslander
Go talk to the tech community. Read the New York Times other international media.
Remember we are not a First Past the Post system.
Labor does not lose money for this campaign so voting for another party that is progressive first to make your protest on the legislation is a reasonable thing to do.
As for your no one is changing their vote you have not been paying attention. A lot of Labor people on twitter are saying they are doing that.
Just because the MSM is not reporting it does not mean its not happening. They missed the change by not polling the LNP heartland electorates in Victoria.
Note I have not said Labor is going to lose the election.
Also yes I have noted Rex agreed. When someone is attacking someone all the time sometimes they are right even when they have been unreasonable at times. However as William noted with his intervention a lot of Labor people have been saying Mr Shorten is not popular.
That may be changing but have no doubt about the reality that William had to point out.
Haven’t seen much of Michaela Cash lately. Is she being hidden?
‘ Cathy Thomson
@tassiedevil
13m13 minutes ago
#Insiders The panel is waffling on about border security but not bringing up the funding cuts to Border Force.’
They did.
I also wonder how it would be possible to change the capitalism we have now to a version of socialism that would work.
Peter Turchin, according to wiki is a Russian-American scientist, who specialises in “cultural evolution and “cliodynamics”—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.”
He “wants to understand how human societies evolve, and why we see such a staggering degree of inequality in economic performance and effectiveness of governance among nations (see Research Interests). Peter’s approach to answering these questions blends theory building with the analysis of data. He is the founder of a new transdisciplinary field of Cliodynamics, which uses the tools of complexity science and cultural evolution to study the dynamics of historical empires and modern nation-states.”
His most recent books are Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth and Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History.
I’ve been reading his blog for many years now and I always find something useful to consider. This is a sample of one blog post that might be interesting to some people here.
http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/does-capitalism-destroy-cooperation/
Cat
Thanks for the Adani pay off article link. Given their reported behaviour in India we should not be surprised.
Indeed, given their record for reported bribery elsewhere, you have to wonder who Adani has donated money to in Australia?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-22/adani-companies-facing-multiple-corruption-probes/8140100
zoomster
No fun in all that airy fairy peace and love guff, get to where the action is, righteous smiting .
Boerwar
Did they? I must have blinked and missed it . Sorry.
This morning ABC RN Background Briefing investigated the proposed development by Walker Corporation on the Moreton Bay Ramsar-listed protected wetlands in Queensland.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/the-bird-and-the-businessman/10588700
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/06/calls-for-inquiry-into-protected-queensland-wetlands-development-assessment
guytaur @ #1431 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:55 am
Minor correction: A lot of people who claim they are Labor people on twitter are saying they are doing that.
I think that if you could check (you can’t) then you would probably find that not very many of them actually are.
I Agree – Labor in danger of being a Liberal Party clone with weak leaders like Rudd and Gillard according to Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/dec/09/just-dont-stuff-up-labor-says-and-bold-policy-goes-out-the-window
The Matt Price Moment had to be ScoFauxMo explaining why he was on the bus
The only thing that can be said for Tony Smith is that he is much better than his predecessor.
guytaur
In your post above you where going to vote Green 1; Labor 2 because of the spyware legislation? Your conversion seems to be pretty solid. Don’t tell me you were miss representing your position, reality, a rusted on Green voter that fully supports the Green’s duplicity in trying to make things difficult for Labor.
I am predicting now that the Coalition will lose about 20 seats and that is being optimistic.
I thought Pyne forgetting he was supposed to be afraid to eat out in Melbourne because of African gangs should’ve won.
frednk @ #1420 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:43 am
And don’t forget the Greens put up the same amendments as soon as Labor abandoned them after the House was adjourned. You just can’t trust them.
It always makes me smile inside when someone proudly announces that they haven’t watched Insiders for two years or more, but feels entitled to criticise in detail.
“So who prevails in a battle between birdlife and business?”
Hint: birds don’t have any money and they don’t vote.
Confessions @ #1444 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:03 am
I thought Bill trying to start the ute in Outback Queensland was a hoot!
frednk
Its you misrepresenting my position. I have stated openly why I am changing my vote.
Its you trying to undermine my credibility that I changed my vote from Green to Labor then back again over this.
This is my personal choice. As I have stated it. I told everyone on this blog I swing between the Greens and Labor. I still do. I am using my vote to make my protest no matter how much Labor partisans like you may dislike that