The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
Guytaur, I have few questions for you, really just to get the picture of where your understanding of terminology is. I’m genuinely curious about it. Before I do that just a little background on me so that you know what my knowledge on this is.
I work in IT and have implemented most of the algorithms that are used in modern cryptography. This is from ground up, using the actual specification and then implementing it, rather than using external libraries. This is a policy of the company I work for, so that our software has limited dependency on software libraries external to our company. So lets just say I know how cryptography works pretty much because I was forced to read the actual standards and specification and implement a lot of it myself.
So my question is when it comes to end-to-end encryption what do you think “end” means? You talk about Apple’s end-to-end encryption a lot, so in terms of your iPhone, what to you think that “end” is?
Do you think it is:
– when the data arrives to your phone, that is, the data is decrypted when it is received by your device?
– when the data arrives to your iMessage, that is, the data is encrypted when it is opened by your iMessage?
– or you think it is something else.
Once the message is decrypted, do you think your iPhone:
– has access to that message in human readable form for as long as it is not deleted
– or you think that iPhone can’t access that message in human readable form
I truly don’t mean to come across as grilling you so I apologise if it does look like that. I am just curious what YOU think is actually happening.
The difference between Labor and LNP Climate change policies is simply. Labor can be believed, LNP not at all and the Greens have form.
Sceptic @ #1631 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:53 pm
Age and place of residence.
While on the subject of National Security this is one reason why Labor should hold its ground.
Now we are selling who controls our border to the highest bidder. That could well be China.
PSyvret tweets
So our “national security” obsessed government sells off entry vetting services to the highest bidder? Makes about much sense as their Venezuela option for energy policy. https://twitter.com/PSyvret/status/1071152931267784704/photo/1
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:43 pm
BW
I hope you enjoy it when Apple moves its million plus users data in Australia to China’s servers.
Its more likely than voting Green and giving your preference to Labor will elect the LNP.’
What I will enjoy from the next Labor Government is freedom from an appalling sense of being trapped in a polity where the Right and Left crazies increasingly dominate public discourse. I will enjoy the knowledge that not every single environmental decision will fuck over the environment. I will enjoy the sense that we will have a government that has individuals in it who understand that the whole of life is not about greed-is-good.
The Far Right Crazies and the Far Left Crazies have had a considerable run, globally. The Venezuelans are paying a million bucks for a cup of tea. Their Far Left Idiot President thought that lifting wages by 3000% would fix the problem! The SYRIZANS were dragged kicking and screaming to the precipice of what happens when you borrow a shitload of money and would rather someone else’s taxes pay for your fly now pay later lunacy. And they only just came to their senses.
Trump’s Far Right is doing unimaginable damage to the US and global environment and to the US economy. This is providing a terrible lesson at a terrible cost of where extreme crazies are willing to take you if you give them half a chance.
The Far Right Brexiteers have succeeded in turning the British Lion into a mewling kitten – an international laughing stock. The Far Left Corbyn mob are at it as well. If you do not believe that, take five minutes to read the Friedland article in the Guardian. Crazy Corbyn finds himself on Crazy May’s petard. Oh irony of ironies!
What is happening on the streets of Paris right now is the Far Right and the Far Left struggling for who is going to take Macron’s job. A few tentative Far Left folk here on Bludger have got stuck into Macron. Well, guys, here is the thing. The rioting is happening because Macron stoked up the prices on fossil fuels. And he has now been forced to backtrack. My best guess is that the LePen crazies will be running France next. Based on a considerable study of French history my prediction is that the Far Right Crazy LePennites will be triggering mass sectarian riots before you can say jack snap.
In Australia, the Far Right in the Coalition parties and Australia have delivered five years of the most appalling and pernicious impact. Do the Far Left Crazies attack the Far Right Crazies? NO fucking way. No they join in each other in trying to smash the middle. Because they hate the middle more than they hate anything on earth. Their joint enemy is Shorten.
What I will enjoy is a bit of consistent sanity where the vacuous Far Right and Far Left culture war battles du jour get treated with the respect and balance and priority that they deserve – that is to say that they are issues that are issues at margins compared to policies that deliver education, health, housing, transport, and enough food of good quality for everyone one.
I will give one example. The Far Right and the Far Left Crazies have been engaging in ten years of huge effort over what is now a few dozen kids on Manus. Yet hundreds of Indigenous kids die unncessarily each year because they live in conditions far, far worse than the kids in Manus do.
I am looking forward to basic changes in something that has concerned me terribly for 30 years – the complete and utter inability of the Australian polity to address CO2 emissions.
Other than that, I will enjoy watching the Coalition bastards savage each to death in Opposition.
I will enjoy watching the Greens doing their usual self-gratulation about being both correct and powerless.
I will enjoy watching several thousand sleeve tuggers get the sack from their various troughs.
Of course this dream does rather depend on the Far Right and the Far Left failing to tear Shorten and Team Labor down over the next seven months. They will continue to do their worst.
Utterly predictably, the Far Left and the Far Right crazies have a few bots having a go at adding their farthing’s worth on Bludger.
I love it when Labor gets lambasted by some of its supporters because it does not take a stand on “principle”.
Fair comment I suppose except standing on principle does not always mean the gods are on your side.
I seem to remember Simon Crean having the courage to say to the whole of the Oz electorate – and straight out to the likes of Howard – that our involvement in Iraq was wrong. This, mind you, after hundreds of thousands turned out in the streets in opposition to this US bit of imperialism. And the outcome? We went in, it was a total and utter shambles, based on a self-serving lie and the Three Amigos are now safely out of politics without anyone having their image really tarnished. Meanwhile, Simon Crean is……………….where?
Still, he has his principles and Labor kept theirs intact……….
BW
The problem for you is that you are a crazy as your informal vote campaign demonstrated.
I am very left wing crazy for saying Daniel Andrews campaigned and governed well so I will own that 🙂
Thanks for the compliment. I don’t mind being in Daniel Andrews company.
Far better than being in the company of someone who thinks voting informerly in a preferential voting system helps. Even in First past the Post not voting for what you believe sees people like Trump elected.
Tricot
That was one of Labor’s finest hours and I still credit Mr Crean for that. Even as I think he was present at one of Labor’s darkest hours not long after in the leadership wars. 🙂
I think Labor people have legitimate reason to be genuinely angry with Bill. He is our guy and well if we looked at the work last week and decided that was bad enough for us to stay home and not door knock, or not do our shift in the telephone room, fair enough.
I also think it dents his credibility as incoming PM and perhaps increase his exposure to the idiocy of the greens and / or liberal lite fake independents like Phelps and the fake centre alliance who used to be the smart liberal lite party and have dropped the smart bit.
But as angry as we Labor types are entitled to be the rest of you can go jump in a lake. Particularly the greens do more damage than good on national security and environmental issues, so rather than move the country to the left they enjoy it moving to the right (out of imagined self interest) and then scream like idiot children whose icecream melted in the sun when the Labor leader supports a centre right policy, having being a party to having the Australian political centre shift to that very centre right.
nath (I know . . . I know . . . I know) posted
The reality is ScoMoFaux is Prime Minister
sprocket_ @ #1649 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:08 pm
Increda-Bill!
Also worth bearing in mind that Shorten has to factor in the reality that two media barons, who control a massive majority of all Australian media output and have very significant influence of the rest of the media, are explicitly out to neck him, and will not let facts or morals getting in the way.
So for greens and others to be getting on the kill bill train remember who you are working for.
WWP
The problem with your narrative. Exhibit A Daniel Andrews.
Remember the Greens did not do well in that election.
John Reidy @ #1592 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:07 pm
From what I read it is for use with material seized by police/asio through current legal methods. There are a lot of posters on here that are either terrorists/criminals or wearing tin foil hats.
It’s a strange thing that so many posters attack this blog as “full of Labor hacks”, when for the last two days there has been a majority attacking Labor (some of whom are Greens, but that’s normal).
Twitter is piling on, too.
I’ve got the message – Labor won’t beat Coalition because they’re weak, even tho they might not be as devious, self-serving and plain evil as the Libs.
guytaur
You specified comparing Andrews response to the event coming up to the election with Shorten’s. Shorten and Andrews were on the same page. Shorten and Andrews are on the same page when it comes to issues around security.
“WWP
The problem with your narrative. Exhibit A Daniel Andrews.
Remember the Greens did not do well in that election.”
I’m not 100% sure what your point is. And it is more my political opinion than a narrative.
The narrative I’m working on at the moment is set is a modern alternative reality where the heroine has been convicted of a crime against the Government and sentenced to slavery. She is being used as bait by the Empress and she knows it but still falls in love with the Empress. The first in the planned series of 300 books set in this mysterious magic world is only about $5 mill short on the go fund me, but I’m plugging away.
All Labor has to do in response to this Morrison line about border security is to say
Sorry I am sure a wordsmith can put that better than me but you get the drift.
Zoomster
Great rewriting of history.
Andrews kept his promises. He did not promise one thing and then voted against it a week later just because the LNP yelled African Gangs Terrorists Boo Boo!!!
AR
Why do we insist on calling it encryption legislation when it is more accurately termed spyware legislation?
Catmomma
Cat is Nath stalking you? Always post when you are around.
guytaur
Difference between Shorten and Dan Andrews is Andrews has had a term in government
Might be better to compare the electoral prospects of Matthew Guy and Bill Shorten as both are opposition leaders
Difference is Guy was leading a dysfunctional broke political party against a government that is seen to be building infrastructure, improving social conditions, promising better social conditions. The outcome was clear to political players like upcoming Liberal power broker Marcus Bastiaan who retired (temporarily) for family reasons in August
Shorten has the media actively spruiking for a government which has made ordinary voters lives worse. Even the media note that the current government is a shambles but love to sell newspapers with TERROR headlines
My recollection is that PB site gets buried in Green / Lib troll like comments when a dreadful poll for the LNP is about to drop.
Sceptic @ #1671 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:37 pm
Is he? Well, that’s up to Mr Bowe to decide but it seems like he’s allowed to. I don’t care. I suppose I should be flattered or something.
billie
Was the LNP government in minority and Labor put up amendments they voted against to show the public their commitment on the issue?
I see guytaur has ignored the expert in the encryption field, SlavG. Well, it’s only to be expected. He doesn’t want to be shown to be clueless actually I guess.
Sceptic
says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Catmomma
Cat is Nath stalking you? Always post when you are around.
_______________________________
lol. C@t is always around. I suppose I could post at 3:00 am. That would be the only way to avoid her.
Guytaur, ‘Labor put up amendments they voted against to show the public their commitment on the issue?’
When did Labor put up amendments and vote against them?
cat
I have stopped posting as I have stated my views. SlavG can read the definitions I posted.
He can read all the links I posted including the quote from Craig Federuchi that he does not seem to like.
None of the things I have said have contradicted any of the things I have linked to.
Including the one about Apple servers in China.
guytaur
Wow, talk about shifting goalposts! Your post was specifically about Andrews’ reaction to terrorist events. Obviously you now realise you were wrong about this, but rather than admit it you’re now talking about something else.
Boerwar @12:41PM
“…Here are some reasonable expectations from a Labor government: the balance between workers and bosses will be redressed, the balance between private and public education, housing and transport will be redressed. The balance between taxes on the wealthy and expenditure on the needy will be redressed. Gay kids will not be banned from schools. Sick people will be off Nauru. Global Warming will be treated as a reality rather than as a set of ideological emphemera best addressed by burning more coal.
…There is nothing perfect in this space. There are no perfect tactics. There are no perfect people. There are no perfect processes. There are no perfect sets of words. There are no perfect strategies. There are no perfect policies.
But there IS only one rational choice if you give a rat’s arse for the future of Australia…”
That is a great post. I’ve copied it for future reference.
Important news announced from Baghdad by Comical Ali.
.
“Josh Frydenberg has declared victory for the government in the year’s last parliamentary sitting fortnight,”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/frydenberg-declares-government-victory-after-final-sitting-week/news-story/c339163917b5954b75ed48eb33fdfb07
PB
The ones the Greens voted for. At first they were only going to vote for one amendment. On the substance that would have seen delay just like with the refugee legislation.
No need to repeal. Just review after the AS legislation that Labor rightly thinks Morrison will go to an election on rather than being defeated in the House.
Its just fear of the LNP and media fear campaign that they voted for it as many here have said is a good political strategy.
briefly @ #11174 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 11:09 am
briefly.
I like your coining of the term Liblings. It fits a significant proportion of the current Green aficionados engaged in the delusion that their innate personal exceptionalism and privilege means that their loudly signaled opinions must matter in the coming ALP flood. Working for others ain’t their shtick – otherwise they would have followed Daddy’s footsteps into the GRASPers.
Inserting an e into Libling gives Liebling (Favorite, Darling or Lovey in German), and allows ploy-lingual puns – like untruthful ornamentation…
Fair point.
Perhaps that’s the real power of the MSM. They set the terms of reference and the rest of us mostly don’t even notice.
zoomster
Nope its you shifting the goalposts. Its you claiming that Andrews and Shorren are on the same page on security issues. I have seen Andrews go against law and order advice to keep youth in detention from independent experts while upholding as he promised the department advice of keeping them in detention.
Mr Shorten and Mr Dreyfus backed the technical advice from the IT industry until they voted against their own amendments of what Labor called the flawed bill. There is no need to repeal it if its great legislation to vote for.
Zoomster
Or as Greg Jericho posted. Labor is against this bill thats why we are voting for it.
poroti @ #1683 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:48 pm
Jeepers! If he thinks that was a “victory”, I wonder what he thinks a “defeat” would look like?
Well, I guess he will find out in a few months 🙂
““…Here are some reasonable expectations from a Labor government: the balance between workers and bosses will be redressed, the balance between private and public education, housing and transport will be redressed. The balance between taxes on the wealthy and expenditure on the needy will be redressed. Gay kids will not be banned from schools. Sick people will be off Nauru. Global Warming will be treated as a reality rather than as a set of ideological emphemera best addressed by burning more coal.”
* balance between workers and bosses – you’d have to hope for some of the antiunion stuff to go bye byes if Labor has the numbers in the senate, you’d have to expect a boost in industrial safety and punishment for killing people, and you’d hope, but not necessarily expect an APRA / ASIC rehaul and injection of funding based off of better rules.
* balance between private and public education – I’m not sure I expect anything more than window dressing perhaps some additional one-offs for high need public school but I’d be stunned if this was attacked in a sensible systematic way, the power structure is too embedded
* housing and transport – I’m not really sure, other than the announced tax changes, that I’d expect much in either of these categories.
* The balance between taxes on the wealthy and expenditure on the needy will be redressed – I’m not sure I’d be hoping for anything more than what has been announced here.
* Sick people off Nauru – probably if you don’t have too broad a definition of ‘sick’
* Global warming as reality – Labor seem destined only to follow in this regard, so to the extent the rest of the world and the English speaking and well Rupert world see global warming as a reality then maybe Bill and Co will. It probably doesn’t matter that much renewables and storage are cheap enough to just replace everything else. Labor have announced the funds and skeletons of the programmes that is all we will see in the first term barring some kind of global ‘if you don’t do x we will punish you’ scheme.
Sprocket_ @1:08PM. You need to change the date – Sunday May 12, 2019, or possibly Sunday February 23, 2019.
Guytaur
I don’t understand your point
In the previous Victorian Parliament the ALP had
a 1 seat majority in the lower house and
a minority in the upper house, Legislative Council
so was unable to pass bills to
* introduce minimum nurse to patient ratios in all nursing homes, abolished by Kennett
* restructure Victorian fires services so all paid firefighters in one service and all volunteers in CFA – because Liberals want to keep the issue alive to improve Sarah Henderson’s electoral chances in Corangamite
“Assistance and Access Bill” has received royal assent from Governor-General
as of today, December 9th.. #AAbill is now law of the land
#AusPol
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dt6Kl0PVsAEIXhy?format=jpg&name=medium
Disappointed guytaur that I couldn’t interest you in my narrative or the go fund me for it, or anyone else for that matter, don’t worry I won’t link the go fund me, but I will head into the courtyard with my laptop and tackle the chapter where the heroine throws herself into an icy mountain stream and demands the empress joins her in the water as a sign of her love.
billie
Labor did not vote to put spyware on your phone to catch murderers etc in any Victorian election.
Instead they have done the opposite in installing a bill of rights when they could.
Federally Labor voted to put spyware on your phone. With no safeguards against abuse.
No matter if you want to enter the what is encryption anyway debate or not. This after saying themselves how bad the legislation was.
@Boerwar
I believe Corbynism would be great for Australia, which would be an good antidote to right-wing populism. If somebody like Jeremy Corbyn emerged in Australia, that person would be very popular. The people are very much in favor of publicly owned electricity, water and railways and increased taxes for the wealthy.
The British press are at most Blairites and majority of it backs the Conservative Party. Jeremy Corbyn has been subjected to one incredibly bad smear campaign. The only fault I find with Jeremy Corbyn is his anti-colonialism (which is not a bad thing in my opinion) which has led him to support Hamas, Hezbollah and appearing on Iran’s Press TV.
I see Poll Bludger’s resident Hand Wringers, Nervous Nellies, Beatified Virtue Signallers, Moral Guides, Spiritual Gurus, and Nasty Little Trolls are once again advising Labor to die in a ditch over a piece of political belly fluff more agonizingly obscure than than trying to work out the number of angels to be found on the head of a pin.
Ho hum.
I, for one, am sick of Labor copping all the moral responsibility for what goes on in this country, while the Coalition spivs, lurk merchants, urgers, sleeve tuggers and agrarian socialists get a free ride for far worse.
I’m also sick of this government which, on any measure of performance and competence, have failed to come near even to the miserable KPIs that applied in the RGR years.
The answer is simple: either vote for Labor warts and all, or invite another ScoMo government to coast into office on the outrage they and their scumbag mates in the media set you up to express so predictably.
And if you can’t bring yourself to vote for the Tories, shut the fuck up and keep rowing, because sitting there whingeing about Facism and other phoney moral dilemmas is only helping the REAL arseholes get re-elected
Personally I blame the Greek Gods and Pandora! 🙂
BB
Yes!
BB
I have said I thought the political strategy is wrong and will lose Labor some votes.
I have said this is because politically Labor itself has outlined how bad the policy was.
They then caved and bent to the government will as Greg Jericho pointed out.
Thats not moralising or anything else.
However I have been involved in the what is encryption anyway and posted definitions and links for my arguments on that. Thats not arguing the politics or moralising.