The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
Sprocket @8:20
Who can forget the Daily Tellmecrap front page “NINETY BILLION NETWORK” which oddly enough showed up the day before Turnbull and Abbott popped into Fox Studios to launch fraudband.
The lock step coordination between Liberal HQ and Murdoch and the industrial scale lying was evident before the 20013 election.
guytaur @ #1495 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:50 am
No it isn’t.
P1
“Why would the ALP risk this, when a simple “steady as she goes” campaign will win them the election handsomely?”
—————————-
The sense appears to me that for many people on significant issues that Lab are at risk from not being seen as useful leaders because of the mediocrity of their position on matters of significant concern to many. As they currently are widely seen.
One response above suggests Lab is going to rolling out a heap of new policy. You seem to be suggesting the exact opposite and playing the role Grog laments.
Nothing unusual there, regular to see different pro-Lab posters put contradictory positions on the same page here. Or even seeing the same Lab poster giving two positions in the same thread in one day.
Actually it is not that rare to find three positions between any two human beings.
The festering pit that is the Lib party have lost it, it seems, with Lab hoping to cruise in, doing a Bradbury at best then.
Whilst many people, and circumstances, are demanding actual action and changes.
Based on ~25% or more of non-major party votes and it seeming there is a terminal decline of votes for major parties to below 40% for either. Is simply sitting back and waiting for the dreamed majority realistic? Should the public not be able to question just how useful and capable those vying for their vote are? Is the end of either traditional party dominating the parliament here?
I’m sorry, and with all respect, but it’s not. It is intended to bypass it. Render encryption ineffective. Make encryption irrelevant. The encryption will still be there. The mathematics don’t enter into it. This is about spying. This has been explained ad nauseam.
z
Doesn’t cut it. The independent lives in Frankston and is connected to the building industry.
Way to go to destroy the good will between the local Greens and local Labor.
P1
Yes it is. Thats where you fall down. You are trying to pretend installing spyware is not breaking end to end encryption.
Its like voting against the science on climate change. Its either fact or its not.
There is no in between . No matter what the politicians believe encryption is encryption or its not.
Long term Labor has lost credibility on its understanding of tech with all these propaganda excuses that not its not a back door. Its not breaking the iron laws of mathematics because its intercepting the plain text before its encrypted. With end to end encryption that means the encryption has been broken.
Its why its called end to end encryption.
The Greens think that 10% of the vote entitles them to 100% of Labor’s say.
Lateriser
See definitions of end to end encryption I posed above. It does not say except where spyware is installed to intercept the message on the device.
Luv ya Greens boldness, then vote against Labor regardless, garnish with hypocrisy and self-righteous indignation, have a chookhouse row among yaselves and crow about some (the sum of your) achievements in the 1970’s.
Na just kiddin’
Encryption doesn’t matter as the present rabble with another temporary leader and a dodgy coalition partner now called the Nationals are seen as the sole distributors of ” cronyism, corruption and incompetence” and anything they and their dastardly mates in the RWNJ media profess to be gospel, is no longer accepted by the majority of the voting public as anything more than bullshit involving another scam.
Labor and ths independents will campaign for a Royal Commission into ” cronyism, corruption and incompetence” which strikes at the fundamental tenet of the “faux” liberals.
This extended election campaign will result in an unexpected LNP loss in the NSW election as the polls are now predicting and a continuation of the Federal LNP rout now progressing with all the dignity of a stampede.
The LNP have broken the threads of loyalty within the two parties and between their supporters. They are the remnant remainder of a marriage of convenience, the result of competing self-interest and unrealistic aspirations.
Encryption and legislation to that effect will become the victim of most technology, irrelevancy.
Whatever Morrison and the leftovers conjure will be treated with the derision as in ‘the boy who played wolf’.
The Greens, stop breaking your own hearts and decide what it is that you want. Fighting Labor has only limited possibilities.
Any other scenario than a ‘sea of red’ accross Australia is beyond a possibility at this point in time.
Just how desperate the desperates will become over Christmas and beyond is really the only expectation. Many of the traditional LNP supporters can’t be bothered to watch the cricket nor their own political party.
Late Riser: exactly. Nothing to do with the rules of mathematics.
However what it has a lot to do with is the trust between you the owner of the device and the app developer who you trust not to push spyware onto your device.
What the law does is tell app developers to break that trust. That will have a lot of fallout.
BW
Great straw man there.
Quoll @ #1503 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:58 am
Yes, but the problem is that by “many people” you probably mean that small percentage of people wavering between voting (1) Green and (2) Labor, or (1) Labor and (2) Green.
Yes, you might get a few of those by being “bold”. But the end result? No difference.
But the risk is that you might lose the (again small) percentage of people who might be thinking about switching from voting (1) LNP to voting (1) Independent or Minor … or even – heaven’s forbid! – (1) ALP or (1) Green.
Now those votes can easily determine who wins and who loses. Hence a “don’t scare the horses” campaign is a sensible strategy.
Just to repeat something I said earlier. If an app developer is told by the government to push spyware onto your phone, the fact of doing so will not remain secret. It will probably be discovered in hours.
The app developer knows this. Rather than torch their brand, their only recourse is to withdraw their product from any app store over which our law has jurisdiction.
This will also be a public announcement of the government having issued a notice. There is no way this process can remain secret. And it also broadcasts this process to the criminals who will soon known which apps and from what jurisdictions are safe to use.
Hence the whole thing is totally pointless.
Confessions says: Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 10:49 am
phoenixRed:
Have a read of this fascinating insight into the relationship between Kushner and the Saudi Prince.
The Wooing of Jared Kushner: How the Saudis Got a Friend in the White House
*******************************************************
Thanks Confessions – its really creepy reading. Maybe its just me but I don’t have any trust in ANY member of the Trump Crime Family ( Don, DonJr , Eric, Kushner/Ivanka etc etc ) …… or their seemingly incestuous relationship with the apparent less than trustworthy Saudia Arabia who are playing the Trumps like gullible fools
CC
IF spyware is installed on the device its breaking the end to end encryption. Note the definition says no third party intercepting the message. That includes spyware before you start typing. The typing on the keyboard with end to end encryption means that the message is encrypted on the device as you input the message.
Thats why Apple has installed the encryption into its operating software. To intercept their end to end encryption you have to break the operating system decryption and thus break the iron laws of mathematics.
Fmd still carrying on about encryption!
My friend did a test other day.
Had her Facebook page on. She decided to tell her husband who was sitting nearby that they needed to engage an electrician to do some work around the house.
Low and behold within a few hours. Four separate links popped up on her page for electricians in her area.
Coincidence?
Anyhoo.
She is going to do further tests with other things that she has not searched online for.
Just to see what pops up.
Fess
The Kushner Saudi connection is very pertinent to the shit show.
As I have said ad nauseam. Very real prospect of Trump leaving white house in straight jacket or worse for him, he suffers a fatal heart attack. He is a walking time bomb.
Talk later. Off to city for afternoon.
I think it’s a good idea for the Libling-leaning to come clean. They campaign for Libling theory. They think Libling. The very least they can do is vote Libling.
The more the Liblings whinge about Labor the easier it becomes for past-Liberal-voters to switch their support to Labor when they vote. This is excellent news for Labor, who are receiving 3rd-person endorsements from those that maintain a professional hate for Labor. The Liblings might think they’re campaigning against Labor. The outcome will be precisely the opposite. They will be helping Labor among those whom Labor most want to attract – voters that are thinking of swapping from the Tories.
Labor understands the relevance of the notion of “safe hands” in relation to power. They are the only “safe hands” available in the approaching election. Demonstrably, the Liberals and their siblings the Gs are a febrile rabble. Labor are going to win this election. Nothing is more certain. Nothing the Liberals or the Liblings can do will be allowed to derail this. Nothing. Great will be the woe among Labor’s opponents, who can already feel their prospects whithering….sense their impending collapse into irrelevance.
guytaur @ #1507 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 11:01 am
Many people here have tried and tried to explain the difference to you.
You just don’t seem to want to understand it.
You’d rather just go on and on about “Labor baaaaad!”
Which makes you exactly the same as those you rail against here.
guytaur
Do you ever consider that maybe, just maybe, the people here who have practical experience/work/degrees in the computer world and disagree with you may know more than you do ?
guytaur that’s not how it works, even on apple devices.
The APIs that user level software uses see non encrypted text from the your keyboard.
Its at that level that spyware works.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 11:00 am
z
Doesn’t cut it. The independent lives in Frankston and is connected to the building industry.
Way to go to destroy the good will between the local Greens and local Labor.
Goodwill??? You have to be joking. There is no love lost between Labor and the Liblings.
P1
Read the definition. Its pretty clear. Its from the start to the end.
All encrypted. Like it or not thats the definition. At least CC is talking about bypassing the iron laws of mathematics unlike you. The point being of course you are creating a backdoor to get around those iron laws of mathematics. That is creating an exploit.
phoenixRED
Just the current version of the multi decade love in between the Bush family and Saudi prince Bandar.
Heavens!
Poroti, please don’t puncture the bubble.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 11:11 am
guytaur that’s not how it works, even on apple devices.
The APIs that user level software uses see non encrypted text from the your keyboard.
Its at that level that spyware works.
CC, the garbled one wouldn’t know his armpit from an elephant. He is entirely impervious to all persuasion – to example, definition, explanation, rational illumination. He’s lost in Libling-land.
https://www.apple.com/au/privacy/
guytaur it would help you to avoid using expressions like “iron laws of mathematics”. This has little do with what is being proposed.
What I’d like you guys to focus on is the process. As I said, as soon as an app developer pushes spyware, there will be someone reverse engineering and within a few hours the fact that it has done so will be public.
App developers have no choice but to stall and take it to the courts to protect their reputation. And if that fails they have no choice but to withdraw their product.
Meaning the crims will know which apps to use and not to use.
So its all totally ineffective.
guytaur @ #1509 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:02 am
Again, sorry. But you are incorrect when you say the law is intended to ‘break iron laws of encryption’. It can’t.
poroti @ #1520 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 8:10 am
Precisely why there is no point having any discussion with guytaur.
Lateriser
Saying its intended to do so is not to say it can.
briefly I hate to intrude, but the legislation should not have been voted for and all the Greens/Labor shit intrudes on the fact that Labor supporters should be pressing Labor to undo this legislation.
poroti says: Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 11:13 am
phoenixRED
Just the current version of the multi decade love in between the Bush family and Saudi prince Bandar.
********************************************************
I know Poroti – it is a relationship with Saudi Arabia that has ensnared MANY victims over the years and it probably only exits for one main reason – OIL
Hence the whole thing is totally pointless.
Yep. It is a power that won’t be wielded.
Like you have show, just a dash of strategic reasoning shows why.
guytaur @ #1523 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 11:13 am
*sigh*
guytaur @ #1531 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:19 am
That I can agree with. But then what is your point?
The point about my pointing to the definition is that to install spyware on the device is to creat a backdoor intended to undo the iron laws of mathematics. This is by forcing the app provider to provide a key.
Do read the definitions people.
LU if its a worthless power then a good government should go back and repeal the legislation or else amend it to the point where its never going to be used.
How many times does it have to be said, the spyware does not touch the encryption at all, the message is still encrypted from one party to the other. The difference is that a piece of spyware is reading/intercepting the message either before it is encrypted or after it is unencrypted.
No where is the encryption touched and no where are any laws of mathematics whether iron or marshmallow impacted, the laws of mathematics remain the laws of mathematics.
guytaur you’re simply wrong.
victoria, phoenixRed:
A neat summary of Russian collusion thus far:
https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1071216523556110337
On another topic, does anyone know what days Newspoll typically polls? Should there be a Newspoll released tonight, over what days would it have been gathered?
guytaur @ #1537 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:21 am
Sorry. If you want to change ‘undo’ with ‘bypass’ I can agree with you. And that doesn’t need a key.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 11:19 am
briefly I hate to intrude, but the legislation should not have been voted for and all the Greens/Labor shit intrudes on the fact that Labor supporters should be pressing Labor to undo this legislation.
The Bill was passed on the promise that it would be entirely amended when Parliament resumes. The Liblings tried to prevent the amendments…effectively, to ensure the dodgy version got up. They played bluff and lost. They will fail in every respect. The amendments will be passed if the Parliament returns.
The Liblings are full of mischief on this. They always are.
Cud Chewer @ #1532 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 10:49 am
AS we will, after the election. A lot of stuff will be pushed for, when the ALP is in power. We won’t get all of it, so I believe it will be important to focus on undoing this mess, the encryption bill.
CC
Nope you are.
You are not reading the definition. End to end encryption is just that. That is from the start to the recipient.
Any third party reading the message has broken the chain of encryption. Otherwise there is no point in end to end in encryption at all.
briefly
How sad you can’t look past your own hatred (which you will deny of course) and condescendingly, arrogantly and sanctimoniously believe your mind-set is indicative of all individuals, everywhere in Australia.
guytaur @ #1545 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 11:25 am
How can encryption be busted when it has not been applied? This is just bullshit and no matter how many times you come here spouting the same ridiculous statment it remains bullshit.
Lateriser
Yes we do agree. Undo or bypass if you like.
Either way its breaking end to end encryption. Usually referred to as a back door.
If the garbled one thinks it’s possible to “undo the iron laws of mathematics” then they cannot be helped. In Libling-land, there is no mathematics it seems.
guytaur @ #1537 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 11:21 am
*sigh*
There is no need to “undo the iron laws of mathematics”, or any need (or intent) to recover keys to accomplish the purposes of the legislation.
Please move on to why you object to what the legislation is intended for, rather than your faulty understanding of how it does it.