The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
Lizzie @10.04am
Your comment about absentees still criticising Insiders …… So true !
Sprocket
The protection for users is the PR reputation.
What Apple tells its US and EU and Australia audience is different to what it is telling its Chinese audience.
There is such a thing as a business reputation to protect
Edit: Thus Apple taking the FBI on with access to a terrorists phone.
I think that Grog article is spot on. Labor is so scared of losing it is handcuffing itself to the Liberals on too many issues. Terrorism and asylum seekers aren’t actually that important in the big scheme of things, and I don’t share other people’s concerns about the TPP but climate policy is one area I really want them to show some leadership on. I hope their policy is coming soon.
Dooley
Great comments this morning!
The last Newspoll was 55-45. With a sample size of about 2,000, the margin of error is about 2%. A 54 or a 56 won’t mean much.
Diogenes @ #1603 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:24 pm
Hmmm. I’ll just save this quote for when a boatload of terrorists pretending to be asylum seekers lands in northern Australia sometime in the next month or two … 🙂
News Corp truly a putrid company, from The Daily Telegraph
.
.
Dutton slams Bill Shorten over asylum seekers – after it was revealed the opposition leader is pushing to allow entry to those with rape and murder convictions………….
https://outline.com/HTGCS2
It’s a level of indirection removed even from that. What the law does is empower the government to order app developers to break that trust, on a per-developer basis.
You’re only telling half the story, at best.
Yes, Labor is wrong both for supporting the encryption legislation in the first place and for voting down its own amendments (and for throwing away a super easy opportunity to shame Morrison for running away from Parliament).
But the Greens played games of their own, like publicly threatening to kill all but one of Labor’s amendments. And then moving the amendments they threatened to kill.
Both parties have performed very poorly.
And yes, the Coalition too. But with them, poor performance is expected and normal.
Diogenes.
”Labor is so scared of losing it is handcuffing itself to the Liberals on too many issues.”
Not so. I think you are one of the PBers Doyle’s referred to a couple of pages back. Shorten has memorised Kenny Rogers to a tee, and is implementing the advice impeccably.
Labor claims to have a policy on climate change, but when you follow the link, it only talks about cheaper energy prices, and a target fore renewables. No mention of land use impacts, transport emissions or an overall carbon price, policy or total emission target.
https://www.laborsclimatechangeactionplan.org.au/
So it is actually a weaker climate change policy than what Gillard introduced. It’s a better policy than the Liberals, but then again Kim Jong Un’s climate policy is better than the Liberals.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/13/north-korea-set-to-sign-paris-climate-deal/
“Terrorism and asylum seekers aren’t actually that important in the big scheme of things …”
I agree. They are being massively beat up by the right because they don’t have a good story to tell.
Psyclaw
Shorten did the opposite to Daniel Anderws on terror security.
With an actual so called terror event Labor won the Victorian election.
This is a fact. Better than a what if.
Player One says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:27 pm
Diogenes @ #1603 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:24 pm
Terrorism and asylum seekers aren’t actually that important in the big scheme of things …
Hmmm. I’ll just save this quote for when a boatload of terrorists pretending to be asylum seekers lands in northern Australia sometime in the next month or two …
———————————
The irony of Labor spewing Lib fear mongering lines around here over recent days
For anyone who missed it
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/09/next-election-test-of-leadership-on-climate-and-the-environment
Psyclaw
He certainly knows when to fold them and run!
guytaur
You are just wrong. Lack of understanding or a Green’s desire not to understand; I have no idea.
CC has articulated the real issues, real well. The real issues are a lot different to the issues you face if you break the encryption.
Do you trust Microsoft to not push spyware when they update your OS. Read the last license agreement you were forced to sign to keep your system running and get back to me.
frednk
😆
Thats forcing a software company to build in a backdoor.
I am arguing thats bad legislation. Thank you for making my point.
Jenny Rogers:
…You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser…”
Shorten learnt how to play poker back in his union days when the AWU got cash for shitty EBA’s and their members lost out. He developed a real ‘poker face’ when talking to the members and pretending to be sincere.
Psyclaw @ #1609 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:34 pm
Politics shouldn’t be about folding on issues of importance to peoples lives for your own political ambitions..
FWIW, my view is that people tend to forget that advantages that being in government brings with it and correspondingly, the disadvantages that being in opposition brings with it.
The strong likelihood is that Shorten will be prime minister of a Labor government within 7 months unless the Coalition and PHON, and the Greens are successful in tearing him down in the next 7 months, as they have been trying to do for the past five years.
Here are some reasonable expectations from a Labor government: the balance between workers and bosses will be redressed, the balance between private and public education, housing and transport will be redressed. The balance between taxes on the wealthy and expenditure on the needy will be redressed. Gay kids will not be banned from schools. Sick people will be off Nauru. Global Warming will be treated as a reality rather than as a set of ideological emphemera best addressed by burning more coal.
Here are all the reasonable expectations from a Greens government: none, because there will not be a Greens government.
Here are some reasonable expectations from another three years of Morrison: more privatization, more investment in coal; more destruction of biodiversity; more clearing; more and more dead Reef; more cuts to public education, health and transport; more bastardization of those who least need; less barstardization of those who most need it; and a higher likelihood of being sucked into some US war or other.
There is nothing perfect in this space. There are no perfect tactics. There are no perfect people. There are no perfect processes. There are no perfect sets of words. There are no perfect strategies. There are no perfect policies.
But there IS only one rational choice if you give a rat’s arse for the future of Australia.
Global Warming-wise, we are racing into the Last Chance Saloon with this election.
A R says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:31 pm
….
But the Greens played games of their own, like publicly threatening to kill all but one of Labor’s amendments. And then moving the amendments they threatened to kill.
Exactly; the Greens think serious issues are things to play politics with. Labor did the best they could with a poor hand; the soggy green card did not strengthen the hard very much.
BW
I hope you enjoy it when Apple moves its million plus users data in Australia to China’s servers.
Its more likely than voting Green and giving your preference to Labor will elect the LNP.
nath @ #1618 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:40 pm
The cosy cartels created by corporations and super unions has delivered a corporatocracy Lib-Lab is very proud of.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:40 pm
..
Politics shouldn’t be about folding on issues of importance to peoples lives for your own political ambitions..
The words of a true Green voter; be pure and impotent; and here I thought you were a Liberal troll.
This much is true.
Talk of Labor ‘pragmatism’ is turd-polishing and nothing more. Shorten pissed himself when faced with the prospect of a Liberal fear campaign, ran screaming in the other direction, and made a horrific captain’s call that probably nobody on his team saw coming.
I know a few people aren’t concerned about Labor reversing their position on encryption based on the assumption they will fix the legislation after they win the election. What if a miracle happens and the Coalition get re-elected?
Decision on key legislation should be made based on substance rather than politics and assumptions.
A R @ #1625 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:47 pm
Burke has been all over the media since trying to spin his way out of it.Very unedifying.
Soc
I would think Labor would be saving its climate change policy announcement to closer to the election proper, as is usual with major policies.
It would also want to wait until after Fed Conference, to ensure that the policy was in accord with the directions of the members.
davidwh
+1 . It would be nice if the country received first consideration instead of ‘the party’.
frednk @ #1624 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:46 pm
If partisans removed the blinkers they may actually see the merits of legislation .
Bloody hell, I’m finding it difficult to tell the difference between purported Greens supporters & Liberals on this site
Is there a difference?
DWH
Yes. Even if the what if the LNP get re-elected is a bit of a stretch.
guytaur
‘Shorten did the opposite to Daniel Anderws on terror security.’
Incorrect. Daniel Andrews has stated on numerous occasions that he does exactly what the police and security forces ask him to do, exactly Shorten’s approach.
As to the ‘terrorism’ event in Melbourne, Shorten’s approach and Andrews were no different.
Sceptic at present I don’t support either the Libs or the Greens. 🙂
Sceptic
says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:53 pm
Bloody hell, I’m finding it difficult to tell the difference between purported Greens supporters & Liberals on this site
Is there a difference?
________________________________
Perhaps go to respective policies of the two parties and have a look. You will find a far greater difference than if you looked at Liberal and Labor policies.
zoomster @ #1634 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Andrews differed from Guy in establishing pathways and community working groups for troubled migrant youth rather than a policy of just locking them up indefinitely somewhere.
Zoomster
I did not see Daniel Andrews agreeing to the close down the injecting room. I did not see Daniel Andrews agreeing to lock up every person who has skipped bail over a driving offence.
Talk about partisan propaganda.
That won’t help Labor win NSW or the Federal election. Voters want strong parties with principles they stand for not saying one thing and doing another.
Thats why voting against their own amendments was such a weak look for Labor and seen as a sell out.
Thats long term damage adding to the Greens credibility on calling same same.
Not a slogan I agree with but thats why they use it. Silly short term politics over country and long term party credibility.
Politics that is only applicable if the fear campaign trumps the reality. A reality Federal Labor itself has said is bad legislation.
Socrates @ #1610 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:35 pm
Yes. We were promised by the ALP stalwarts here that Labor was about to release it’s climate change policy soon. But apart from half-hearted support of the NEG, and some baubles on renewables, we are yet to see any details.
They can’t leave it much longer. Perhaps after the National conference?
‘I did not see Daniel Andrews agreeing to the close down the injecting room. I did not see Daniel Andrews agreeing to lock up every person who has skipped bail over a driving offence.’
Haven’t seen Shorten doing these things, either.
Indeed.
Though the one thing I’ll credit Labor with on the encryption mess is that the party has done a very good job falling in line behind Shorten’s trainwreck. If a Coalition leader made a similar blunder they’d be gone by now.
Davidwh
They are saying that Labor is not being upfront with voters, they will do something different to their announced policy when in government, exactly their opponents’s accusation. They are cheering this deviousness as pragmatism.
They have alienated many voters who no longer see a substantive difference between the two major parties, on issues of importance to them, not stuff like Olympic Dam etc.
Almost all Greens voters were Labor voters at one time, as evidenced by their preferences.
The only fruit that BW, Briefly, GG, C@t, well just about everyone here, will get will be further alienation, to the degree they will say “stuff it” and not vote in the House for either.
davidwh @ #1627 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 12:48 pm
If that should happen, we will have much bigger problems than some idiotic encryption bill 🙁
Pragmatic, predicting the next Essential Poll at 55-45 to Labor whilst possessing all the green envy of the Shorten Labor success. Little man syndrome indeed.
That is true Player One. Not that I think even a miracle will save the Coalition. However the principle still stands.
I hadn’t realised until just then that the Huawei person arrested was arrested not over doing anything really bad, the allegation is that she sold stuff to Iran, and the US doesn’t like that. WoW if I was in Beijing the US would be going to suffer hugely. Or perhaps they could punish a pathetic racist US ally.
davidwh,
If the coalition do get re elected then that would be a good indication voters do not give a rats arse about encryption despite what the green knee jerkers and others claim.
Cheers and a great day to you.
Sceptic says:
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 12:53 pm
Bloody hell, I’m finding it difficult to tell the difference between purported Greens supporters & Liberals on this site
Is there a difference?
The party names are spelt differently and the Greens have more policies than the Liberals.
“They have alienated many voters who no longer see a substantive difference between the two major parties”
Really? I honestly don’t believe there are that many stupid Australian’s who can’t tell the difference between the two parties. To believe that you have got to dumber than the dumbest Trump supporter. It is objectively absurd.
This blog needs some balance…