BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

Nothing much doing on the poll aggregate, but two ReachTEL seat polls provide further evidence of the Coalition’s low ebb in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.

Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.

• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.

• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,199 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 44
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  1. Ah Richo, scumbag NSW Lab right old mate to the core
    Sky, 2GB, any Murdoch rag that wants him
    Whatever it takes
    So will he be the Lab poster boy for this election?

  2. don @ #1998 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    DisplayName @ #1915 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

    That post – what does it mean, actually?

    He’s obviously never come across Frank Calabrese.

  3. It’s Time @ #2004 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    don @ #1998 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    DisplayName @ #1915 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

    That post – what does it mean, actually?

    He’s obviously never come across Frank Calabrese.

    I arrived here in 2007 with the Messiah, Kevin 07, so I never had that pleasure.

    But Frank was, from what I have gathered, something else!

  4. don @ #2007 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    It’s Time @ #2004 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    don @ #1998 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    DisplayName @ #1915 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

    That post – what does it mean, actually?

    He’s obviously never come across Frank Calabrese.

    I arrived here in 2007 with the Messiah, Kevin 07, so I never had that pleasure.

    But Frank was, from what I have gathered, something else!

    Just another blinkered partisan.

  5. The pathetic history of the Greens Party means that y0ung Greens supporters live in a sort of permanent policy achievement jello.
    Their world quivers.
    But it does not shift.
    Their elders and betters in the Greens Party keep promising nirvana.
    But these same elders keep delivering environmental nothingburgers.
    Now, this does not matter for the latter day neo proponents of dialectic materialism.
    For these Far Left Crazies, the fight is the thing.
    As with all Far Left Crazies, the first priority for attack is always centrist Left Parties and leaders.
    As with all Far Left Crazies, their preferred governments are far right autocratic parties.
    It is why they target Shorten with a blind hatred.
    While they leave Morrison to go his own sweet way.

  6. The Greens and crossbench suspected Labor was going to wave the bill through regardless which it did. The Greens wanted to delay it’s passage by voting for the amendment to refer it to a review so they tried to move a vote on Labor’s own amendments . Labor didn’t want to delay it’s passage so it voted with the Coalition thus exposing it’s cynical political strategy aka pragmatism.

  7. don

    Frank was still around in 2009. Saw him pop up on that old Pollbludger blog I recently linked , the one during which Truffles got the chop. Was surprised at how reasonable the ones I saw were 🙂
    .
    .
    ‘Frank Calabrese says:
    Monday, November 30, 2009 at 7:03 pm
    [KarenMMiddleton

    Minchin says reports of his capitulation on emissions trading are premature. Says he has NOT decided to let ETS through under a new leader. 3 minutes ago from web ]”
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2009/11/30/newspoll-57-43-nielsen-56-44/comment-page-16/#comments

  8. Cat

    We saw what “Whatever it takes” got the Essendon Football Club.

    Thats something Labor should stay far far away from

  9. It is extremely silly for the government to set a fiscal surplus as a target under current economic conditions.

    A fiscal surplus just means that in a given financial year the government deleted more dollars of private sector financial wealth than it added.

    That is all it means.

    The government cannot stockpile, hoard, or accumulate its own currency that it spends into existence thousands of times daily by keystroking numbers into Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    It would only be appropriate for the federal government to run a fiscal surplus if the domestic private sector and the external sector were spending like crazy. Then the government would need to net delete enough non-government sector Australian dollar financial wealth to contain inflation.

    We do not face that situation today. We have a small trade account surplus and we have an income account deficit that outweighs our trade account surplus. This means that overall we have a current account deficit. The external sector is a spending or demand leakage for the Australian economy.

    In addition to that, the domestic private sector wants to net save. It wants to spend less than it earns. This is another spending or demand leakage from the Australian economy.

    In order to offset those demand leakages, and provide enough income for the non government sector to meet its tax obligations and achieve its desires to spend, save, and do paid work, the federal government should really be running a larger deficit than it is today.

    700,000 unemployed.

    1.1 million under-employed.

    200,000 discouraged job-seekers (at least).

    On top of that, there are buildings, factories, and equipment that are not being used to their full potential.

    There is a vast amount of unused productive capacity in the Australian economy.

    The correct fiscal stance for the government under these circumstances is expansion, not contraction.

    The extra spending needs to be targeted wisely on activities that are socially useful and environmentally healthy. Ensuring that everyone who wants interesting and meaningful and decently paid work has their wishes met should be a high priority.

    Making our public infrastructure and public services first class should be a major goal.

    Targeting a particular fiscal outcome is the wrong way to go about designing economic policy.

    The government must pursue real world outcomes that meet the needs of our people and enhance the natural ecosystems to which we belong.

    The fiscal balance is largely a non-discretionary variable anyway. The government does not control the spending and saving decisions of the non-government sector. It makes no sense to target a particular fiscal balance. It’s an ex post variable whose number we know after the event.

    Economically illiterate people use terms like budget repair, the national credit card, running out of money in relation to the federal government.

    It is important that people understand that the federal government’s financial position is nothing like that of a household or a business or a state or local government.

  10. Dee Madigan

    Verified account

    @deemadigan

    During the GFC the Aus economy was one of the best, we’re now outside the top twenty. And we have the worst gross debt increase out of all oecd countries. If Morrison thinks he can win an election on economic management, he’s dreamin.

  11. Frank and I occasionally chat on facebook. He still follows the blog (at least a bit) and sometimes suggests items for me to post. (I use my own judgement on that…)

  12. Don’t forget Wayne Swan is on National Wrap tonight with Patricia Karvelas jousting with the NSW ICAC creator Nick Greiner.

  13. Nothing shows the true bankruptcy of the Greens more than various Red policies artfully hidden in the Greens policy statements.

    Do the Greens promise to destroy Olympic Dam Mine? No.
    But they do promise to shut down all uranium mines immediately.
    Olympic Dam Mine is a uranium mine.
    There goes 10,000 jobs.

    Do the Greens promise to destroy the Australian cotton industry, shut down half a dozen regional towns and destroy around 10,000 jobs? No.
    But they do promise to wage war with the multinationals by taking all GMOs out of the environment. All of Australia’s 500,000 hectares of cotton is GMO.
    There goes another 10,000 jobs.

    Do the Greens promise to remove all planes, ships, tanks, missiles and artillery from the ADF? No.
    Will they do so? Yes.
    They have never supported any defence acquisitions. In 30 years, not one.
    But here is the clincher: Do the Greens provide any funding for any of the above in their ‘fully costed policies’? No.

    Each of these artfully hidden Greens promises will have smashing impacts on whole communities and on tens of thousands of workers across Australia.

    Each of them is also a Reds ideological fave: uranium, multinationals, kumbaya defence systems.

    You can see the Red Greens on Bludger all the time. You can tell them easily. The only policy they discuss is when there is an opportunity to attack Labor. The only person they attack with any venom is Shorten. They lie about the Greens having fully costed policies.

    These ideologues have cut perfectly decent environmentalists, and the environment, out of politics altogether.

  14. Cat

    I hope you are right. I suspect it might be partly the reason NSW Labor is in front in the polls. Ditching “whatever it takes”

    Have to give credit to Foley there. His invisible man routine let the party reform quietly and gain credibility

  15. don @ #2007 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    It’s Time @ #2004 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    don @ #1998 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    DisplayName @ #1915 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Labor propagandists here are not doing themselves or Labor any favours. They are their own worst enemy, and I sincerely hope their behaviour is not representative of the thought processes within Labor. You need only look to the current government to see the consequences of drinking your own koolaid.

    That post – what does it mean, actually?

    He’s obviously never come across Frank Calabrese.

    I arrived here in 2007 with the Messiah, Kevin 07, so I never had that pleasure.

    But Frank was, from what I have gathered, something else!

    Frank was around for the Rudd/Gillard changeover, switched loyalty faster than a light switch and castigated anyone else who didn’t. A real Labor recruiter.

  16. Far more plausible,in my opinion, is that the spying is not intended to be individually targeted/limited in scope in this way, with the proviso against ‘systemic weaknesses’ being essentially window-dressing that can mean whatever the government wants it to mean.

    a r

    I’d agree with that. But the question of targeting specific devices raises other issues.

    As I said before, spyware can be found by reverse engineering and contrary to that idiot P1, you don’t need the spyware to be active to reverse engineer it and discover its “payload”. Been there, done that myself.

    Of course if you do target specific devices then you create an even easier way to identify spyware. You just compare the file size/content/signature between devices. The device with the targeted spyware still stick out like a sore thumb. No need to reverse engineer.

    You can certainly create software with certain environmental “triggers”. But its no use if ultimately your software can’t “phone home”. If it does, you have an immediate confirmation that you have the spyware. If you are particularly paranoid then you can firewall it.

    Which takes me back to what I said. There is no way an app developer can insert spyware and not be found out. Once its been discovered, there goes the app developer’s product. They will fight a TCN tooth and nail.

  17. ‘Quoll says:
    Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 7:35 pm

    Ah Richo, scumbag NSW Lab right old mate to the core
    Sky, 2GB, any Murdoch rag that wants him
    Whatever it takes
    So will he be the Lab poster boy for this election?’

    No-one is defending Richo.
    But what you do need to understand is that Richo delivered vastly more for the environment than all of the Reds and Greens put together since the formation of the Greens Party three decades ago.
    Rather than doing what Greens do best – sneering, snarking and sniding – think about what that means in the real world.
    I will repeat it so that you can absorb it fully:
    Richo delivered vastly more for the Australian environment than all the Reds and Greens in the Greens Party over the past 30 years.
    Richo succeeded.
    You guys are a failure.

  18. Just got off a long flight. Wow! The Greens are all froth and bubble! Perhaps they can sense a majority Labor Government? That’s the Green’s worst nightmare.

    Actually Lenin mentioned the Australian Labor Party. He saw the ALP as a workable solution to make nations a better place to live. Not Coomunism. Labor and it’s Politics are like Garlic to a Vampire to the far left and the Greens.

    The Greens are desperate Labor not have a majority. Better still more Tory Government to demonize. At the very least a Minority Labor Government to drag down.

    These Green bomb throwers we see on PB are desperate as can obviously be seen here.

    Afraid like their wet Victorian Dream, Bill Shorten and his United Labor Team will make the Federal Election not a wet dream for the Greens but a dry nightmare.

  19. guytaur @ #2021 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:56 pm

    Cat

    I hope you are right. I suspect it might be partly the reason NSW Labor is in from in the polls. Ditching “whatever it takes”

    I’m meeting with the new NSW Labor Opposition leader on Tuesday night. I’m sure he won’t have 2 heads and I believe he is a very grounded, sensible individual.

  20. Also this is what Jeremy Corbyn is saying about Brexit.

    This is a quote with no opinion of my own so you can disagree with Corbyn but don’t say I am agreeing. I am posting due to people say Corbyn says this or that.

    @SuckMyLeftJuan tweets

    Ahead of Tuesday’s #Brexit vote, #JeremyCorbyn (@jeremycorbyn) travelled to #Lisbon to meet members of the #PartyOfEuropeanSocialists (@PES_PSE).

    @Labour is ready to step in and negotiate a deal that can work for our whole country. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1071451708268646400/video/1%5D

    #JC4PM #Socialism

  21. Cat

    I think Daley has been doing better on the Stadiums than Foley did. Of course that could just be Berejikilian doing worse but I want to give credit to Daley for what I have seen. 🙂

  22. Pegasus @ #1900 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    Pee Bee

    Please supply a timeline with linked source(s) to support your claim.

    It really does not matter. Those that want to kick up a stink about it will continue to do so. Those who agree with Labor will continue to agree. Those who reluctantly recognise that Labor had to sidestep a bear-trap will grit their teeth and wear it, while hoping the legislation can be cleaned up after Xmas or after the next election. (that’s me).

    It would do people good to remember the gov’t is the gov’t, while Labor forms Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. The ultimate responsibility for this legislation is the Liberal Party of Australia, and it’s leader, PM Scott Morrison.

  23. Frank, gusface, the finigans, among others of the time, were/are Labor warriors.

    The finigans posts regularly on the Guardian site.

    Their rehotoric was often over the top, in much the same way as Peg, Rex, et al, but one was never in doubt where their heart lay.

  24. guytaur
    Corbyn states that he will renegotiate May’s Brexit deal.
    The EU has stated that it has finished negotiations.
    Corbyn is just another case of the Crazy Far Left deluding themselves.

  25. BW

    There can be an extension and if the new negotiation is better than what has been done already then the EU would probably be open to it.

    They would prefer the UK not to leave the EU at all. I think like you Corbyn is dreaming because of that timetable. The only way I can see the EU agreeing to a delay is for a second referendum to give a chance for the UK to stay in the EU.

    Of course if a second one had the same result then I think things would be worse than now for the UK. Its that much of a mess.

  26. It seems that running round like a blue arsed fly is not doing Scotty from the Shire much good. The professionals want to airbrush him out..

  27. It is now officially summer on the Northern Tablelands.

    The koels have arrived, and this evening the cicadas have started up for the first time.

    It is dry as, the grass has hayed off, and mowing is a matter of knocking over the weeds as they raise their heads, rather than cutting grass.

    #seasonsonPB

  28. The leaders of the Australian Labour Party are trade union officials, an element which everywhere represents a most moderate and “capital serving” element, and in Australia it is altogether peaceful, and purely liberal.
    V I LENIN 1913

  29. guytaur
    The EU has stated that it will not renegotiate.
    Corbyn is stating that he will renegotiate.
    Even a Greens Party hack should be able to spot Corbyn’s lie.

  30. BW

    There you go lying. Calling me a Greens party hack when I have explicitly stated I am not. Yes I am accusing you are lying about me. Deliberately so.

    As I have told you before I am not a member of any political party. Therefore I cannot be party hack.

    So please retract and I will retract the accusation.

  31. don
    Thanks.
    The ACT regular spring woodland bird surveys have just been completed.
    This is one of the longest-running scientific bird surveys in terrestrial Australia with strict spatial and time parameters for each survey point.
    Statistically, the results of the surveys can be compared with surveys over the past 30 years or so.
    The surveys are all done by volunteers. (I did them for years).
    This year’s spring preliminary survey outcomes are sad. Numbers for many species, and species diversity itself, both appear to be whacked.
    This is part of a trend which I assume to fit in with the long-term drying trend in Australia’s south-east.

  32. Right now, if the AFP wanted to record your mobile phone calls they would order the relevant telco to record it for them (assuming required approvals are in place). There’s no tapping of the phone line (which doesn’t exist in any practical sense anyway) using alligator clips as we used to see in the movies. Instead the switch is configured to copy any call traffic and forward it to the AFP or storage. There is encryption between the mobile phone and base station, however that’s irrelevant as the copying is taking place in the middle of the network and the encryption is only at the edge.

    Now for what is misleadingly called the encryption bill.

    My understanding is that the legislation is not “breaking” end to end encryption. It instead has put measures in place to force companies to cooperate with the AFP etc in putting in measures to allow for the recording of content. This can include forcing those companies to alter their products to allow this when it doesn’t at the moment.

    So, say I release an app called Free4All that allows secure text communication between two end points using end to end encryption. Under this legislation the AFP could compel me to alter my app to record communications they want access to. End of end encryption is not being broken, the two end points will still encrypt all data they send. The difference is one end point will be recording all the data it sends prior to encrypting, and recording all the data it receives after decrypting it. The app would then forward the recording of this communication on, with it eventually reaching the AFP.

    If I fail to comply with this request I can face severe penalties. If I tell anyone about this request I’m also in for it.

    If I ignored the AFP, and was outside Australia’s jurisdiction the AFP might try to force the phone manufacturer, OS developer or telco to install the equivalent of spyware on a device.

    From what I’m told, the problems with this legislation include (IANAL):
    . Many non Australian companies will probably refuse to comply. If Telegram, a company founded by a Russian, won’t comply with the Russian courts I doubt very much it will comply with Australian legislation. Some companies may withdraw from the Australian market. I wonder what Australians will think if Apple suddenly withdraws from the Australian market and we can’t buy iPhones anymore? Or Google blocks Android in Australia?
    . From what I understand some of the terms in the legislation are vague (probably deliberately so)
    . Huawei equipment is being excluded from core infrastructure in Australia, New Zealand, and I think Canada, because its “subject to extrajudicial directions from a foreign government that conflict with Australian law”. This legislation now means Australian companies and products may also be excluded from other countries infrastructure. If you were Indonesia, would you now trust a product from Australia to carry your secrets?
    . I understand that the legislation does allow for an appeal on the grounds the request is not technically feasible. However, I believe that appeal is only to a retired Federal Court judge and a technical expert. I have no idea how independent they are.
    . From what I understand, there’s no judicial oversight in any of this. I think I have read that this is one of Labor’s fundamental concerns.

    Anyone who really wants to keep their conversations secret will likely just use an app from a company that they believe has or would refuse to comply with the legislation. Of course, given the secrecy involved, I’m not sure how they will know?

    There’s been a lot of hysteria about this legislation. It isn’t seeking to break the rules of mathematics, or to necessarily install back doors (although that could happen accidentally). However, from what I have read, it’s deeply flawed and probably won’t work anyway.

    Personally I tend to be a civil libertarian. So my natural reaction is to be very suspicious of anything like this. We have had significant amounts of legislation passed this century that increases the powers of security agencies, and decreases our freedoms. I think we need an independent inquiry to look at how effective all this legislation is, and whether we have sufficient oversight over our security agencies and what they do.

  33. I think a LOT of people are well within their rights to be genuinely furious with Corbyn re: Brexit. His half-hearted, agnostic advocacy hurt. I maintain he was a closet leaver.

    Then he turns around a year later and pulls off a spectacular election result (comparatively) off the back of Remain voters, those SE seats that flipped so dramatically, would not have done so were it not for Brexit. I have commended Corbyn on a number of fronts, but he needs to make a proper call. The polling we have is that May’s deal is by far the least popular option. The EU will NOT give Corbyn sweetheart deals or a more lenient deal because he isn’t Theresa May.

    On the Encryption Bill, I’ve made my personal view on the Bill clear. It’s both bad (albeit not the end of civil liberties etc etc so many claimed) and likely to be completely pointless. However, one thing I noticed when I was away visiting family over the weekend, everyone to a person either didn’t know what it was about, didn’t care or hadn’t even heard about the detail as to why Thursday was so dramatic. Even my friends who would normally be scream bloody murder about stuff like this, had almost nothing to say about it.

    I suppose the argument as to whether Labor could have won the politics is pretty much a coin-toss. I think it’s a fool’s errand to make a clear call either way.

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