Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Sprocket

    David Crowe is now bayoneting the wounded in the Liberal Fiasco Party..

    _______________________________

    It never failed to amaze me that the public, as well as the press gallery, accepted the line that Trumble would be a great leader if only his party let him. Of course, kowtowing to your followers is the antithesis of leadership, but that did not seem to bother anyone. And still doesn’t.

    While Trumble was there, that was a problem for Labor. Now that he is constantly telling the public what he would do only if he were still PM that is a problem for Morrison and the Coalition.

    The most effective and resonating political message is not the one that emerges from countless focus groups, but from the hubbub around the morning coffee break. Those messages don’t come along too often. Whitlam had it with ‘it’s time’; Howard had it with ‘we decide who comes here’. This time round it is ‘why isn’t Malcolm PM’?

    As long as Malcolm is out in the public eye going on about all the policy he could have implemented if only the party would let him, it is a huge reminder to the general voting public that he is not PM, that he should still be PM, that there is no rational reason why he lost the job and that the Liberal Party is disconnected from the concerns of ‘ordinary’ and ‘real’ Aussies, which Turnbull, freed from the shackles of Liberal Party ideology, does understand.

    The biggest joke of the lot is that every time Morrison tells the public that they don’t care about the issue of sacking THEIR Prime Minister, when they clearly do, or pronounce that, well, this is what the party room in Canberra decided, he reminds them of how disconnected he and his party are.

  2. Imagine if the greens can attack the Liberals?

    Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    5s6 seconds ago

    Scott Morrison told the Coalition party room “it’s time to move into full engagement with the enemy” and “sharpen up our message“ #auspol

  3. davidwh

    I expect Shorten will be a better PM than Abbott. Other than that we will have to wait and see.
    ____________________________________

    That’s damning with very faint praise! You’re worse than our resident troll

    But really, Abbott was patently unfit to be PM and demonstrated it long before he got the job. In my lifetime, only Mark Latham fell into the same category. And that only just started to become clear leading up to the election. We dodged the bullet with Latham, but failed to learn the lesson and got someone even worse.

    Neither Trumble nor Morrison are as bad – but that is not saying anything much at all.

  4. Scott Morrison told the Coalition party room “it’s time to move into full engagement with the enemy” and “sharpen up our message“ #auspol
    _____________________________

    Trumble better watch out then.

  5. The most effective and resonating political message is not the one that emerges from countless focus groups, but from the hubbub around the morning coffee break. Those messages don’t come along too often. Whitlam had it with ‘it’s time’; Howard had it with ‘we decide who comes here’. This time round it is ‘why isn’t Malcolm PM’?

    Which, when viewed in the light of Morrison’s latest line, that his changes to the Liberal leadership rules, ‘will give power back to the people to decide who leads them’, then the people must then logically think, so why didn’t you let us decide about Malcolm Turnbull?

  6. zoid
    They’re about to get me on the NBN as well!! They’re sending out letters saying I have to swap over from FTTH (Foxtel installed it in this street) to the NBN which is slower and more expensive. And I helped pay $40B for the fucking privilege!! Purely for political bastardry by Abbott/Turnbull!! Thanks guys!!

  7. @Dio

    Same here, they just about to finish construction in the area.

    I think our parents should wait for Labor Gov to offer free upgrade to FTTP.

    As compensation for Liberals fuck up.

  8. Scott Morrison told the Coalition party room “it’s time to move into full engagement with the enemy” and “sharpen up our message“ #auspol

    Two points.

    1. The Coalition government, of which Morrison has been a senior member for the last 5 and a bit years, has been trying, and failing, ‘full engagement with the enemy’. The enemy is still standing and blowing raspberries over the parapet at ScaMo and Co.

    2. It’s all about a ‘sharp message’ with this guy, never about actual policies, as, if they did spell them out then the electorate would definitely never vote for them.

  9. Zoidlord
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 1:32 pm
    Greens win Prahran by 200 votes, it’s abit like Tony Abbott winning by 1 vote.
    ______________________________
    You mean they beat the ALP by 200 votes. The Libs got the highest 1st preference vote. So Greens win by what 70% 2pp?

  10. These guys really have no shame. Stuart Robert to speak about Banking RC at Liberal fund raiser. He voted against its creation 26 times.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/assistant-treasurer-stuart-robert-to-headline-fundraiser-about-the-banking-royal-commission-20181204-p50k1i.html

    At this point I do not think the Libs have any expectation of re-election. They are merely extracting every last grift from the system before they are booted.

  11. Well I moved over to Fraudband a month ago. Promised 50mbs, but I’ve never got more than 20 – ever! Not even at 2 in the morning. After various shuffling and a visit from a contractor who made clear how much he hated copper and how we were ripped off by not going fibre and who could do nothing, I eventually got a call back from Optus to tell me the problem is that this is all the NBN can provide but they are going to upgrade very soon (but no idea when).

    The only saving grace is that it is exactly the same quality as the ADSL I had but, at least, cheaper by about $13 a month.

    Thanks Malcolm, you steaming pile of @#&%$

  12. Rachel Maddow reporting that house Democrats are going to investigate DoJ handling of Acosta plea deal with Epstein.

    Civil court action is also starting in Florida tomorrow.

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/epstein-plea-acosta-miami-herald-investigation-sex-crimes-trump-clinton.html

    Also was Cohen involved covering up Trumps involvement via his Model Agency & the underage girls being employed as “towel girls “ at Mar-a-Lago ? Trump , Clinton & Andrew chinless prince will follow with interest

  13. Diogenes @ #295 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 1:05 pm

    My daughter is in the NDIS and it hasn’t been a positive experience. I don’t know whose fault it is but we’ve pretty much given up and just pay and organise services ourselves.

    I am also receiving NDIS, but for me it has been very positive. For the first time people of working age with hearing loss are actually getting support.
    My NDIS is little more than the maintenance of my hearing assistance dog plus one piece of assistive technology.
    What I am picking up is that people with hearing dogs are getting very diverse outcomes – some good, some getting no support for their dog for no obvious reason. This inconsistancy is part of the issue with NDIS.

  14. Zoidlord
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 1:41 pm
    @Nath
    @michael
    Bahahahaha by 200 votes.
    ______________________
    THis election. Melbourne, Brunswick and Prahran.
    Next election. Northcote and Richmond.

  15. Now is the time for Qld green groups, friends of the forest and similar to unite to attack noxious weeds, plants and ferals.

    The intensity of the recent bushfires will allow cleanup of vast areas now undergrowth is burnt out. Everyone with time on their hands and who is physically fit should join groups like Blazeaid and try to get some benefit from the recent mass destruction of our forests.

    Seeding with native grasses at the top of gullies, removal of old car bodies and iron sheeting would be a good start.

  16. Think for a moment—that instead of spending well over a trillion dollars on weapons of destruction, we could be spending that money on transforming our energy system and protecting the planet. #ClimateTownHall— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) December 4, 2018

    The worlds warmongers are taking us for a ride…

  17. TPOF I gave Shorten a very low bar to get over and I have no feel for how good or bad he will be as PM. The reality of government is much different and more difficult than opposition.

  18. nath @ #327 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 1:44 pm

    Zoidlord
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 1:41 pm
    @Nath
    @michael
    Bahahahaha by 200 votes.
    ______________________
    THis election. Melbourne, Brunswick and Prahran.
    Next election. Northcote and Richmond.

    If Animal Justice can hang on in Western Vic, Labor/Greens/AJP can get get things done in the upper house.

  19. What is it with ABC News 24?

    It seems every time I turn it on there is a Liberal spouting the party line

    Saturation

    And in regards the Victorian election, how many seats did Labor win?

    Accordingly Labor is in government with a massive lower house majority

    The Liberals are on the opposition benches and there are a couple on the cross bench

  20. Bush snr funeral will take place Thursday our time.

    I expect l’enfant orange to ramp up the Cray Cray shortly thereafter.
    Watch this space.

  21. davidwh

    Go back to living on your Aged Pension

    You have most obviously mismanaged your personal affairs given your superannuation will run out in 8 years and you will then be an Aged pensioner

    Mind you, under this government with its right wing austerity, trickle down ideology the ASX is performing as it is, down over 10% in the last 3 months with Friday’s steep losses recovered yesterday but being given back today (currently down 1%), you may have to adjust your expectations because you may be on the Aged Pension before this dysfunctional government is given its marching orders in the first half of next year

    Enjoy your life, leaner

  22. How’s this for a monumental stuff-up? Four years ago our daughter moved into a completely new Canberra suburb which, being a greenfields development, had FTTP installed.

    Now houses in her vicinity are having their nature strips dug up by Telstra to lay fibre optic cables connecting 5G mobile towers that are being installed.

    Is there any communication at all between NBN and Telstra about sharing conduits? Or is it currently “do your own thing and to hell with the cost and inefficiency created”?

    When Optus and Vodaphone start installing 5G will Telstra be forced allow them to share conduits or will the trench diggers move in again?

    Also what about all the people who have been condemned to receive FTTN but nonetheless see their nature strips dug up to accommodate Telstra’s 5G fibre optic cables?

  23. “Think for a moment—that instead of spending well over a trillion dollars on weapons of destruction, we could be spending that money on transforming our energy system and protecting the planet.”

    The world’s coal barons are taking us for a ride in a similar way. Instead of spending billions of dollars subsidising existing and a possible new coal fired power plant, you could spend one billion dollars restructuring the industry (say 10,000 workers getting $100,000 retraining or retirement assistance) and get on with building the now cheaper renewable energy alternatives that will soon pay for themselves.

  24. Paul Karp:
    Labor’s caucus met this morning, and the main items of business were a series of private member’s bills being pushed by the newly-emboldened crossbench.

    What do you expect when the Government has no agenda other than making it through to May. 🙂

  25. As I have stated previously, I have respect for Davidwh and his views. He is about the only Lib supporter here who presents valid arguments instead of just being a provocative troller like most. That comment is out of line.

  26. EG Theodore
    Observer

    That is an unpleasant comment, which was not called for

    Thoroughly agree!

    davidwh has always been a polite and pleasant commenter. He has done absolutely nothing to deserve such disrespect.

  27. TPOF, do you have FttN or fixed wireless? If the former, head over to whirlpool.net.au where you can get advice on significantly improving your line speed. (Not even close to fibre standards ofc but enough to get that 50mbps utilised.) And ditch Optus for a better provider like AussieBB!

  28. Kristina Keneally (@KKeneally)

    In Senate #qt @MathiasCormann tells the Greens
    “You voted with the Liberal & National Senators against Labor’s CPRS. If you hadn’t, it would have been very hard for us to unscramble that egg.”
    December 4, 2018

    The greens will never admit to their mistakes though

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