Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. sonar @ #236 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 12:03 pm

    Nath, the people of his electorate disagree with you as he keeps getting elected.
    Go and campaign against him in his seat if you think he is that much of a threat.
    Start a go-fund me campaign.
    Print some t-shirts.
    Start a letter drop campaign.
    Buy a few reams of A4 and hand out flyers to the masses….because you’re sure as hell not convincing a lot of people here…….lol

    Well said, sonar.

  2. Mueller preparing endgame for Russia investigation

    WASHINGTON — Special counsel Robert Mueller’s prosecutors have told defense lawyers in recent weeks that they are “tying up loose ends” in their investigation, providing the clearest clues yet that the long-running probe into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election may be coming to its climax, potentially in the next few weeks, according to multiple sources close to the matter.

    The new information about the state of Mueller’s investigation comes during a pivotal week when the special counsel’s prosecutors are planning to file memos about three of their most high profile defendants — former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and former Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen.

  3. We have had popular leaders before, they were all spectacular failures, that is why I think Bill Shortens unpopularity is not a problem at all, in fact it is probably a positive for him in the long run.

    I know some like to make out Daniel Andrews was popular always, but he was far from popular in opposition.

  4. C@t

    There, is that a good enough explanation for you, TPOF?

    Not really. Sorry. ‘Nath’ is not a real person. Just like TPOF is not a real person (although I will say – and you can believe it or not – that the real person behind TPOF is very close to the persona posting here).

    There may be a real person behind the persona, but there are so many twists and turns and provocations that whoever or whatever is behind is not that person. Further, unlike you or me, it is clear that adverse reactions to what ‘Nath’ posts are what is being sought to give ‘nath’ some sort of thrill. It seems clear to me that ‘nath’ is a master baiter and responding to it just provides more lubrication. Your responding to it does not do the slightest thing for Labor at the next election (unlike all the fantastic things that you do in the real world with real people promoting Labor).

  5. Zoomster and P1

    As the rest of the analysis in that article showed —

    * migration numbers were actually a low level issue, and certainly not an election-deciding one;

    * Australians were very positive about multi culturalism;

    * The concerns, when analysed, were not about migration per se but the lack of infrastructure to deal with growing population numbers.

    Invest more in infrastructure, and there isn’t a problem.

    Melbourne’s traffic congestion has become a problem because
    * population has increased from 2 million to 5 million in 50 years
    * roads that used to carry traffic cross town have been closed, narrowed, torn up ie Swanson St -2 lanes each way, St Kilda Rd – 4 lanes each way, Footscray Rd – 3 lanes each way
    * school speed zone legislation introduced in 2000 have dropped peak hour speeds from 80km to 40km on same stretch of roads whether or not there is a school. School zones are applied when there is no gate at Mentone Girls Grammar and where there is an overhead pedestrian bridge outside Christian Brothers, Presentation Covent
    * changed attitudes to traffic: migrants from Asia drive like they expect a bullock on the road at any minute whereas Germans expect the autobahn to move at speed

    Improving infrastucture will help but it won’t fix it. If you live away from the tram tracks and railway stations you rely on cars for transport. The Ministry of Transport timetablers regard the bus system as competition to rail and regularly schedule buses to leave 2 minutes before the express train arrives at Geelong station for Torquay and Cheltenham station for Beaumaris. Bus services are infrequent, like a bus every 2 hours on Sunday is still common.

    The population going to have to live more densely which means that building regulations will have to ensure that there is a stock of decent housing built for low income tenants. The middle class is being hollowed out ==> more demand for low income housing stock. Maybe the regulations need to allow dwellings to be higher before installing a lift is mandatory because the body corporate fees for buildings with lifts is $12,000 per year. And don’t forget that increased population density will require upgrades to electricity grid, sewerage system and provision of open space

  6. Good!

    Labor agreed to support the Greens’ bill to prevent public funds being used to indemnify new coal power plants. Labor will support Rebekha Sharkie’s live export ban bill.

  7. nath

    “I blame swamprat for this anti-Shorten episode. He got me worked up.”


    Hang on. I only said I have “low expectations of a Shorten Government” (i.e. implementing left wing policies.)

    It was about my expectations. Hardly anti-Shorten 🙂

  8. And even though they abuse us, Labor still supports The Greens’ initiatives when they are sensible ones:

    Paul Karp:
    Labor’s caucus met this morning, and the main items of business were a series of private member’s bills being pushed by the newly-emboldened crossbench.

    Labor agreed to support the Greens’ bill to prevent public funds being used to indemnify new coal power plants. Labor will support Rebekha Sharkie’s live export ban bill.

    Labor will not oppose the National Integrity Commission bill, and noted it has already been referred to a Senate inquiry.

    Labor will support Kerryn Phelps’ bill for medical transfers from Manus and Nauru subject to three conditions:

    The minister or his/her delegate must have sign-off on all medical transfers
    If a transfer is refused the minister must provide a statement of reasons to parliament
    The establishment of an independent health advice panel
    All speakers were supportive of the bill: one was pleased it extends to adults; another said that the minister must retain responsibility in order for there to be proper merits review of decisions.

  9. A five-day “weekend” visiting the beautiful forests, quiet rivers and inlets and rocky coasts of WA’s Great Southern region is very therapeutic.

    I recommend it to Bludgers. Some may be better for the experience, others may be beyond hope.

  10. You know people have run out of ideas when they download a picture of some notable – frowning or just not looking at the camera – hence a bad angle – and then tag it with something totally irrelevant to the image presented.
    I thought this kind of stuff was produced by the tabloid press – and perhaps smart-arsed undergraduates for those with not much between their ears. But no, it seems we are to be plagued here too with such moronic stuff.

  11. swamprAT

    It was about my expectations. Hardly anti-Shorten

    Around these parts it is 😉
    Rocket Rocket

    Now that’s ornithology I could get in to 🙂

  12. I like it how TPOF deftly responds to me in the third person while criticising those who respond to me in the first person. Well done sir, well played. What a manoeuvre!

  13. Regarding Kerryn Phelps’ bill for medical transfers from Manus and Nauru, does anyone know the time-frames for each of the steps implied by (1) sign-off on all medical transfers, and (2) provide a statement of reasons to parliament? A medical transfer by its nature might need to be quick.

    Also, Kerryn Phelps gets her name on something with a lot of eyes on it. It will make it easier for her to be re-elected. (The cynic in me whispers that this may be a reason she is being supported.)

  14. c@tmomma

    A report by Flinders University into the running of the NDIS found that half of all participants in the NDIS have either had their support reduced or have not experienced a change in their support levels since the NDIS has been introduced.

    No mention by the bs artist under whose watch the funding of the NDIS has been starved. Just more bs trying to link it to Bill Shorten in nath’s all-too-common, and something we can see coming a mile off, approach.

    When Bill Shorten introduced the NDIS he said it would operate like the TAC victim compensation system does in Victoria. Well all that penny pinching to confect a budget surplus by hiring a 1/4 of staff needed and treating the disabled with suspicion of their prolificacy means NDIS is a mean shadow of what was promised.

    A friend was killed in car accident and the funeral was paid for by the TAC – bet the NDIS wouldn’t do that

    The TAC arrange 2 fortnight long holidays for their brain injured clients each year – I have come across them twice and you have to make adjustments for their behaviours eg do their washing up duty because they won’t and living with their weird behaviours – it’s only a week or 2

  15. A five-day “weekend” visiting the beautiful forests, quiet rivers and inlets and rocky coasts of WA’s Great Southern region is very therapeutic.

    Yes, beautiful. Last time I was there it was for a wedding in Denmark. I was seated next to a rather attractive woman. I didnt realise how well we were getting on until she suggested we go for a naked swim together. It was then my otherwise hard of hearing partner and wife to be, seated at the other end of the table, decided to introduce herself to the said attractive woman.

  16. Hey Simon, where have you been. You should have gone swimming with your wife and the hot Dane. How you couldn’t wrangle a threesome out of that situation is beyond me. But anyway, welcome back. 🙂

  17. I have a conspiracy theory RE Turnbull speaking out: I think he is intentionally trying to get himself kicked out of the Liberal party in order for him to form some sort of new socially progressive / economically conservative party (with his son). If he is kicked out he can’t be seen as betraying the Liberal party.

  18. There are concerns a national park famous for its waterfalls and luscious greenery may take hundreds of years to recover from the Queensland bushfire disaster.

    Eungella National Park, 90 kilometres west of Mackay, was damaged by a blaze over the weekend, causing 110,000 hectares of the national park and surrounds to be blackened.

    Key points:
    About 110,000 hectares of national park and surrounds have been destroyed
    The subtropical rainforest will recover “but we’re talking hundreds of years”, an ecologist says
    Tourism is a big contributor to Eungella, and some locals are worried

  19. Memories are great for reminiscing. I had forgotten about the Sky Trains in Vancouver. I remember the flow of trains, the short wait times, easy access, great views of the city. The Wikipedia article gives off-peak schedules as a train every 5 minutes, down to every 2 minutes during peak time. And (according to Wiki) they can safely run them every 108 seconds, and are working on getting them to every 75 seconds. Though I don’t know you could get off and on again that fast! I’d love it if it were considered for Brisbane.

  20. Waters wants to bring on her “Stop Adani” bill for debate in the senate on Thursday afternoon, in general business time, assuming the government doesn’t modify the senate schedule.

    The Greens also want to introduce a bill to the Senate tomorrow saying the Galilee coal basin should not be opened up for coal mining.

    The Greens say Bill Shorten could stop the mine tomorrow by announcing that he’ll place all the environmental approvals under review. They say the Franklin River Dam campaign was won with a Labor leader from opposition saying he’d stop the project if elected, so if Shorten made a similar announcement today the whole thing would grind to a halt.

    I think the sticking point may have been Annastacia, up to now.

  21. zoomster @ #257 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 12:18 pm

    No, I don’t.

    Oh really? Here is what the report actually says:

    In order, the highest level of concern is over the ‘overcrowding in cities’; the perceived ‘impact of immigration on house prices’; government failure to ‘manage population growth’; and the ‘impact on the environment’.

    And here is what you said:

    Invest more in infrastructure, and there isn’t a problem.

    Your statement is clearly false. Investing in infrastructure will not address a single one of these concerns.

    In fact, the article goes to some lengths to point out that there is actually little correlation between infrastructure and attitude in at least one of the major cities studied – i.e. Melbourne:

    Melbourne has experienced the fastest rate of growth and ongoing public discussion of infrastructure deficits and rising house prices, yet the indication from the Scanlon Foundation survey is that in Melbourne a relatively low proportion are of the view that the immigration is ‘too high.’ In 2018 in Melbourne 33%-35% (RDD-LinA) of respondents indicated that immigration is ‘too high’, substantially below the 44%-45% national

    It is you who is misrepresenting the report by pretending that the concern with migration levels can be solved by addressing infrastructure problems.

  22. nath, threesomes are not worth the trouble. Best left for the young’uns.

    If you cant get enough enjoyment from a twosome then you are not doing it right.

  23. LongMemory82 @ #278 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 11:45 am

    I have a conspiracy theory RE Turnbull speaking out: I think he is intentionally trying to get himself kicked out of the Liberal party in order for him to form some sort of new socially progressive / economically conservative party (with his son). If he is kicked out he can’t be seen as betraying the Liberal party.

    All those ‘independent liberals’ looking for leadership?

  24. LR @ 12.33

    I think there are a number of points about this support by Labor.

    First, it looks like Labor is absolutely no longer worried about being misrepresented by the Liberals and Nationals, who are now unelectable. That means it can sign up to things it had to be wary about before. Similarly with not being railroaded into the cryptograph bill, which is clearly (even to the Press Gallery) an inept attempt to play the national security card for political purposes.

    Secondly, as you indicated, it gives more profile to Phelps in a seat that Labor could never hope to win itself.

    Third, by supporting the cross-benchers, Labor is creating headaches for the government. Rightly or wrongly, the public is buying what Phelps called ‘the power of balance’. That means that the Coalition tactics (mindlessly carried through by the press gallery) of decrying Labor’s lack of bipartisanship when Labor does not roll over to Coalition demands are no longer effective. When it’s Sharkie and Phelps who are proposing stuff, and Labor is supporting, it is the government that looks like it is not interested in bipartisanship (which is a reality going back to the lamented ascension of Abbott to LOTO).

    This is dead government walking. And although I am a great supporter of Bill Shorten and think he will be a first class PM, if he was caught doing things with the proverbial under-age goat, it would only work better with a new leader on a honeymoon (Michael Daley anyone?)

  25. The Greens plan to introduce a motion in the senate today saying “the Adani Carmichael coal mine should not go ahead,” to see how Labor votes on it. They say they’re sick of Labor trying to have a bet each way on the Adani mine and it’s time it formally picks a side.

    The greens have invested more in “labors” adani coal mine than Guatam has.
    Given that NSW has 11 coal mines planned that are much bigger than Adani, this greens stunt shows just how shallow they are.

  26. I think the sticking point may have been Annastacia, up to now.

    A very thin silver lining from the fires up here is the sense of urgency creeping in.

  27. “”I have a conspiracy theory RE Turnbull speaking out: I think he is intentionally trying to get himself kicked out of the Liberal party in order for him to form some sort of new socially progressive “‘

    That will not work, he has proved his ability to destroy our National Broadband Network and therefor cannot be trusted!.

  28. C@tmomma, not that I’ve heard.

    My thoughts stem from reports on the ABC relating climate change to the fires, interviews of ‘common folk’, and conversations I have had with friends/relatives. Palaszczuk is a careful (considered) politician. (A bit like Merkel, maybe?) I hope these feelings of mine reflect a mood change in the greater electorate that she will use. Hence my calling it a ‘thin’ silver lining.

  29. My daughter is in the NDIS and it hasn’t been a positive experience. I don’t know whose fault it is but we’ve pretty much given up and just pay and organise services ourselves.

    On Shorten, I think he will be like a Labor-version of Howard, and I mean that in a good way (I hated Howard but it’s still a compliment). Keeps his troops under control, doesn’t make a big target or mistakes, brings in broadly what his side of politics wants, is solid and not showy and most importantly keeps enough of the electorate happy to stay in power.

  30. “I have a conspiracy theory RE Turnbull speaking out: I think he is intentionally trying to get himself kicked out of the Liberal party in order for him to form some sort of new socially progressive / economically conservative party (with his son). If he is kicked out he can’t be seen as betraying the Liberal party.”

    Seems unlikely. Even as Prime Minister he did not move his party one inch in a more progressive direction. He couldn’t get even the most anaemic climate policy up. He acquiesced in the race baiting of Dutton and Co. And in response to the Uluru statement, he knowingly lied that what was being proposed was a Third Chamber of Parliament.

    He had his chance and blew it. To the extent that he’s damaging the “Liberal” Party I’m pleased, but otherwise I couldn’t give a stuff what he says or does – he’s a Prime Minister without a legacy.

  31. @Dio

    You should make a complaint.

    NDIS was destroyed by Liberals, and nothing I have heard was good.

    They tried to get me on it, and I said F no.

    NDIS = National Destroyed Insurance System.
    NBN = National Baud Network.

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