Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. P1

    As the rest of the analysis in that article showed —

    * migration numbers were actually a low level issue, and certainly not an election-deciding one;

    * Australians were very positive about multi culturalism;

    * The concerns, when analysed, were not about migration per se but the lack of infrastructure to deal with growing population numbers.

    Invest more in infrastructure, and there isn’t a problem.

  2. nath @ #196 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 11:37 am

    So what will the Shorten government do C@t? lets see a small list of social justice policies they will implement?

    You can find them on their website for yourself. I’m not going to waste my time doing that for you. However, I will say that it doesn’t involve your straw woman, the SPP. As you may not be aware, the SPP has become the Parenting Payment. You may want to bone up on it before you mouth of again:

    https://babyhintsandtips.com/single-parent-pension/#

    Have a nice day. 🙂

  3. Turnbull is going through a living hell right now.

    He’s confronting the realisation that everyone can now see him for the pissant he’s used bluster and bullying to try and disguise as substance all his life.

  4. Victoria says: Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 11:32 am

    PhoenixRed

    Lurid stuff.
    Will be interesting to see what comes out at hearing tmrw.

    ******************************************************

    Victoria – Totally Agree – It is despicable, depraved stuff – that these rich pricks have indulged themselves in for many years and have got away with it for so long. Maybe there is still a chance that it will all come out and all those involved will be brought to account

    Also this week – will be Robert Muellers filings regarding sentencing for Paul Manafort

    Bill Palmers thoughts – Now this public court filing allows Mueller to put the truth out there about the crimes that Manafort and Trump were committing together. We’re now seeing what Robert Mueller’s strategy looks like. Ahead of any final report and big fish arrests, Mueller is using court proceedings to incrementally expose Donald Trump’s crimes to the public. This appears to be Mueller’s way of convincing the public that Trump and everyone around him is guilty, in order to build broader support for the Trump takedown he’s about to attempt. Mueller is still keeping his final takedown strategy a secret.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/hammer-manafort-trump-mueller-public/14450/

  5. Ben Cubby Retweeted
    Benjamin Law
    ‏ @mrbenjaminlaw
    7m7 minutes ago

    Benjamin Law Retweeted Rudi Louis

    Q: “Is Australia a racist country?”
    A:

  6. nath

    Sorry, Shorten is very ept. In fact, you’ve admitted that in the past, when you said your big worry was that Shorten was competent and thus would be PM for a long time.

    He has committed to reviewing the whole of the social services network – pensions, family payments, unemployment benefits, Youth Allowance etc etc etc – which will be a huge undertaking. This will look at whether fundamental changes are needed, rather than the ‘stick a patch on it’ approach we’ve had in this area for decades.

    It might be that tweaking is all that’s necessary. It might be the whole system needs root and branch reform.

    Let’s wait and see what the recommendations are, and whether a Shorten government acts on them.

  7. zoomster
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 11:42 am
    Shorten was responsible for one of the biggest social justice programs in recent times – the NDIS.
    __________________________________
    He announced it. Couldn’t fund it.

    A report by Flinders University into the running of the NDIS found that half of all participants in the NDIS have either had their support reduced or have not experienced a change in their support levels since the NDIS has been introduced.

  8. zoomster
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 11:47 am
    nath
    Sorry, Shorten is very ept. In fact, you’ve admitted that in the past, when you said your big worry was that Shorten was competent and thus would be PM for a long time.
    _______________________________
    I meant he was competent in his chief area of expertise; getting and maintaining power for Bill Shorten.

  9. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 11:15 am
    Fiscal surpluses create private sector indebtedness and financial instability.

    In itself, a fiscal surplus does not cause private sector indebtedness. This also depends on the private sector savings rate and the external balance of payments.

    That said, the economy has a lot of slack in it at present and the Commonwealth should be adding to aggregate demand. Unemployment and under-employment are way too high. Discretionary spending by households is very restricted, leading to poor trading conditions in the domestic economy and very low rates of new business formation and persistent under-investment. This is also exacerbating the cyclical downswing in property markets – a downswing that will tend to encourage households to try to lift their savings rates. This in turn will tend to lower real final demand in the domestic sector and prolong the stagnation in wage growth and increase unemployment.

    The Commonwealth should be adding net demand to the economy by relaxing social spending, increasing transfers to the States and lifting its own fixed investment. This would significantly lift output and employment while serving other valuable economic and social goals.

    The Liberals are ideologically incapable of this. Only a Labor Government can and will implement an expansionist economic agenda.

  10. Obviously, nath is just another in a conga line of nasty little Bill Shorten trolls. A bullshit artist who smears Bill Shorten baselessly. Probably got that meme he just posted from Gab.

    It’s always baldly-asserted bs with no proof. Just outrageous assertion, after outrageous smear.

    Bill really is feared by these forces arraigned so forcefully against him.

    Still sitting in your Mornington Peninsula holiday house peddling this crap, nath? One imagines you won’t get better until, oh, 6.01pm on the day of the federal election.

    We’ll see, won’t we?

  11. zoomster @ #201 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 11:40 am

    P1

    As the rest of the analysis in that article showed —

    * migration numbers were actually a low level issue, and certainly not an election-deciding one;

    * Australians were very positive about multi culturalism;

    * The concerns, when analysed, were not about migration per se but the lack of infrastructure to deal with growing population numbers.

    Invest more in infrastructure, and there isn’t a problem.

    LOL!

  12. Zoid

    ‘Niggerhead Creek’ – damn it. Fifteen years ago, when I was on council, the community (that is, Australians) insisted that a local mountain, Mt Niggerhead, have its name changed. There was some resistance by council to this but the overwhelming support of the locals meant change was inevitable.

    We obviously missed the Creek, however!

    These names are left overs from early settlement. They’re not indicative of whether or not modern day Australians are racist. The fact that so many of them have been changed in the last few decades would suggest they’re not.

    (Of course racists live amongst us but the idea that Australia is both racist AND successfully multicultural is inherently contradictory).

  13. Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp)

    Labor will support Phelps bill for medical transfers from Nauru subject to 3 conditions – minister gets sign-off on transfers, must table reasons if they refuse and establish a health advice panel. Sounds like they want to preserve discretion to refuse transfers. #auspol

  14. nath

    ‘…getting and maintaining power for Bill Shorten.’

    Which, in a democracy, means delivering what the people want. Even when they don’t know they wantit, as was the case with the NDIS.

  15. From Amy’s blog, MT:

    “Well, I certainly support Steven Marshall’s policies. I think he’s given… He is just an extraordinary breath of fresh air for South Australia. And what he’s doing is making sure that South Australia, which has, as we heard in the presentations today, you know, an incredible renewable energy resource, huge wind resource, has the storage and the back-up to make sure that it’s reliable and I think, you know, with the benefit of hindsight, I think even the most devoted supporters of the Labor Party in South Australia would say that it should have been done earlier but, just as I said earlier, you can’t live your life backwards so Steven is getting on with the job and doing a great job in South Australia.”

    What breathtaking hypocrisy in light of his unrelenting attacks on Jay Wetherill, who did just that. The Liberal Party may have blown themselves up in sacking Trumble, but they did Australia a favour.

  16. Nath eats shark meat loaded with mercury. That does things to ones mental capacity. Minamata disease is an explanation for his outbursts re Shorten.

  17. nath

    People judge others by their own standards. A thief, for instance, believes that everyone else is a thief. Swindlers imagine that everyone else is on the same bandwagon.

    Don’t you believe any good of anyone?

  18. The core (and genius) of the NDIS is that it enables disabled people to manage on an individual basis their suite of interventions.
    It therefore chucks out two centuries of government programs doing the opposite.
    The NDIS requires massive cultural, organisational and personal changes.
    The notion that the measure of the success or otherwise of the NDIS is whether individuals get more, or less, funding is sooooooo last century.

  19. lizzie
    says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 11:57 am
    nath
    People judge others by their own standards. A thief, for instance, believes that everyone else is a thief. Swindlers imagine that everyone else is on the same bandwagon.
    Don’t you believe any good of anyone?
    ____________________________
    Not of politicians. They are the biggest dole bludgers around and act as if they are corporate stars. Look at Howard, he started the attack on the SPP. He has been living off the public tit since 1974.

  20. The Gs anti-Shorten troll theme is an echo of Liberal Kill-Bill trope, illustrating yet again that the Gs are Tories in all but name. They are Labor-hating saboteurs who hope to weaken and then defeat Labor. In the absence of their own practical policies and goals, trolling Labor is all they have.

    There is not a Labor member, candidate or MP who does not understand that the Gs are among their enemies….that they are Liberals in mufti.

  21. Why the fuck does anyone here respond to someone’s deliberate and obvious trolling? It only raises people’s blood pressure when the provocation can be ignored – just a bunch of electronic impulses from a nobody nothing thing in the ether.

  22. A report by Flinders University into the running of the NDIS found that half of all participants in the NDIS have either had their support reduced or have not experienced a change in their support levels since the NDIS has been introduced.

    No mention by the bs artist under whose watch the funding of the NDIS has been starved. Just more bs trying to link it to Bill Shorten in nath’s all-too-common, and something we can see coming a mile off, approach.

  23. Nath, the people of his electorate disagree with you as he keeps getting elected.
    Go and campaign against him in his seat if you think he is that much of a threat.
    Start a go-fund me campaign.
    Print some t-shirts.
    Start a letter drop campaign.
    Buy a few reams of A4 and hand out flyers to the masses….because you’re sure as hell not convincing a lot of people here…….lol

  24. TPOF

    That speech by Turnbull praising SA’s renewables is indeed breathtaking hypocrisy.

    The MSM should absolutely nail the prick to the wall on it.

    He has now totally confirmed that his credibility, ethics, honesty and character add up to zero. All in all he is a lying prick.

  25. sonar, I’m just getting my opinions on the next fed government in cement before they start delivering on what I said they would. It’s a valid political opinion and not at all trolling.

  26. As a dedicated follower of local musicians I can only agree with Jimmy Barnes. We have lots of very talented musicians here. They make a tiny pittance from their talent and much more should be done to reward them.

  27. Oh Cat, BW and Briefly, the ultimate PB trolls utilising all the skills and tactics of climate deniers on PB for years.
    Not that I understand why, but everyone apart from blind Lab partisans seems to agree and wonder at Bill’s broadly poor perception among the Australian public. Despite the complete lack of rationality in the Libs right now.

  28. TPOF @ #233 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    Why the fuck does anyone here respond to someone’s deliberate and obvious trolling? It only raises people’s blood pressure when the provocation can be ignored – just a bunch of electronic impulses from a nobody nothing thing in the ether.

    I respond because I care about getting the only hope for a truly Progressive government across the line next year. I will correct the lies with facts.

    After seeing how Donald Trump lied his way to power, convincing just enough people to vote for him in the places that he needed them to, I’m not going to let a committed troll poison the PB well, for others to read and maybe be influenced by, in the run-up to the federal election.

    As I said before, the supposedly ‘recovering from an operation’ nath will magically get better at 6.01pm on the day of the federal election. And I have a son recovering from a major operation, in fact he’s had several, so I know how long these things take and nath has gone well over how long it takes to recover from even the most serious operation these days. Hospitals like to get you up and about as quickly as possible and out the door. In fact, it can’t have been that serious an operation because he has been able to go swimming in the sea and cook meals, or purchase them, for himself. So, not really that sick at all, by my lights.

    There, is that a good enough explanation for you, TPOF?

  29. Quoll @ #246 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 12:11 pm

    Oh Cat, BW and Briefly, the ultimate PB trolls utilising all the skills and tactics of climate deniers on PB for years.
    Not that I understand why, but everyone apart from blind Lab partisans seems to agree and wonder at Bill’s broadly poor perception among the Australian public. Despite the complete lack of rationality in the Libs right now.

    Your hatred of Labor is causing you to spout nonsense, Quoll, you Green goon.

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