The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.
Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.
2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”
Remember, guys, the ALP may vote the same way as the Coalition more frequently than the Greens do, but the difference is that they only do so for stuff that’s worth supporting.
Dan Gulberry @ #1976 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:21 pm
I urge all people u to take up pigeon fancying. Much more secure method of sending messages.
I read somewhere that in Russia in high security areas they have stopped using computes and reverted to typewriters and carbon paper. I imagine something similar will happen here. Commercial firms worried about trade secrets or say pricing for a tender will just stop using electronic systems and revert to systems that cannot be hacked .
Watcha @ #2468 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
I agree. The greens had already stated that they were going to block two of the ALP amendments. If the ALP found that unacceptable, then no amendments would have been made and the bill would go through anyway.
briefly @ #2489 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:18 pm
Well, Liberal bastardry is expected.
Labor was supposed to be better than that. And they easily could have been. All they had to do was pass one of their own amendments. Or vote the thing down outright with the crossbenchers. They were in a position to do either. They inexplicably chose to do neither, and are rightly criticized for it.
Also, what’s ‘faux left’ about opposing destroying privacy to thwart made-up terrorists? If you ignore everything that’s technically wrong/inept with the legislation, that’s basically what’s left. Why would the ‘real left’ support that? Sacrificing liberties to stay safe from made-up terrorists is the domain of the right.
It would be a very bad idea for people with something they wish to conceal (irrespective of their reasons, good or bad) to revert to using typewriters as this will make them stand out as a target.
Those pesky Russkies were particularly adept at compromising typewriters so as to gather information, and the paranoid might suspect the story “in Russia in high security…” is a plant based on that association.
E. G. Theodore @ #2504 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:07 pm
It’s just DTT reminiscing about the good old days of Mother Russia!
itsthevibe @ #2501 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:47 pm
Such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and today’s effort.
There was no need for Labor to support the spyware legislation at all, in any form.
Probably because the President is either not invited to the funeral, or is forbidden from delivering a speech, thereby meaning that the public gets to witness an entire event without hearing from him. That would be enough to make anyone feel good, surely.
Well, precisely! It’s not like they’d ever team up with them to support anything so heinous as… *shudder* group voting ticket abolition.
It is you who has been up to your ears in group think tonight, and wetting your pants.
As you well know as a surgeon,there are many things that go on in an operating theatre that the general public does not know and would not understand.
So too with national security. You are a mere member of the public. There are any things that go on in the national security “operating theatre” which you do not know about and which you would not understand.
However, the bi-party JPISC has seen and heard all the detail, and they support the legislation if amended.
That bi-party group are our elected reps …. you may disagree with their decision, but I doubt that you are as knowledgeable as they are in this matter. That’s our system. Period.
I certainly have more faith in their considerations than I do in your less informed view.
I suspect the biggest impact of the encryption legislation will be on Australian-based software companies like Atlassian, who’ll end up needing to move offshore rather than lose a large number of clients.
caf @ #2512 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:43 pm
We’ll find out what Atlassian investors think of today’s events when the Nasdaq opens in about 40 minutes time.
Having met quite a few politicians, I’m happy to say their opinion on most matters is worthless and the majority are oxygen thieves. So I’m not at all impressed that a few deadbeat Labor and Liberal hacks chosen for a security committee as a factional deal have given the thumbs up to the legislation.
No big deal in my opinion
Comments like this in the media don’t help
‘Australia’s security and intelligence agencies have legal authority to force encryption services to break the encryptions.’
And I’ve even noticed the majority of users here think they understand the legislation along the same lines as the above
Atlassian shares down 5%, although the Nasdaq itself is down 2%.
Zeh @ #2516 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:30 pm
Fair enough. How should we interpret it then? (Serious question BTW)
That’s the whole point, isn’t it? It wasn’t amended.
And I don’t give a rat’s arse what Cormann “promises”, the Coalition will do as they bloody well please now that it’s been passed – both the Libs generally, and Scummo in particular, have form on this going back to the earliest days of the Abbott Government. The time to get amendments to this bill was before it passed, not after – although Labor seems to be getting that backwards a lot lately (see: TPP).
We’ve gone 17 Christmases since 9/11 without a credible Christmas terrorism threat – please pardon me if I don’t quite believe the Libs’ bleating on the “urgency” of passing this POS legislation.
@C@tmomma: You’re drumming up fear left, right and centre – if I believed you, I’d be clutching my (nonexistent) pearls frantically, all agog at the prospect of Imminent Terrah Attack 24/7. Fortunately, I don’t blindly believe anyone – although I respect you more than most.
It’s been 17 years since 9/11, and we’ve had a total of nine “terrorist attacks” (plus two plots caught short of fruition) in all that time – at least seven of which seem to have been lone-wolf, “inspired by but not taking orders from X” attacks. The eighth, incidentally, was committed by a Bangladeshi less than a week after she arrived in Australia – so any communications were made long before she came under our jurisdiction.
Since a lone-wolf attack has no command structure (even at the action-cell level) and doesn’t require communications per se between a perpetrator and their inspiration, I’m at a loss as to how such legislation would plausibly help detect or intercept them short of fulfillment. In addition to my doubts of its efficacy, I don’t like the form the legislation has taken, after having spent a few hours reading it and crossreferencing a lot of the Acts it amends.
One important thing about “anti-terrorism” legislation is to examine the fine-print – which in this case is terrible. It adds layers of authority as to who can issue computer-access warrants (the AAT, for example, can do so – despite not being judges). Its definition of reasons to issue such warrants is very broad (for example, suspected welfare fraud(!) is now a reason to have your computer seized). And it allows far, far too much room for Ministerial discretion when it comes to the ‘safeguards’ allegedly protecting our rights, in a legal system which already allows Ministers to strip away most of our civil rights on a whim.
It’s bad legislation, granting security agencies powers that wouldn’t have foiled any of the terrorist attacks to date and giving our too-powerful Ministers even more power. If Labor had any real concerns about the rule of law (as opposed to the rule of Ministerial fiat), we should have stuck to our guns and blocked this legislation until it could be extensively rewritten. To our shame, we did not.
I am extremely disappointed by our Parliamentary caucus in this matter. Extremely disappointed.
IMO nearly everyone on this blog (myself included) are political tragics. Joe/Josie Voter doesn’t give a damn about things like s44, or who did or didn’t play ‘smart’ in parliament. They regard Canberra as a sort of kindergarten play-pen. They want to feel safe in their beds, and can’t spell encryption . I think they feel strongly about torturing children!
Shorten lets a piss weak ‘security’ measure through, which can be amended next year. He calls the Govt out for the heartless pricks they are to little children, and does all this without playing silly games, and without giving the troglodytes even a twig to hit him with about security.
Of course the Greens can wash their hands, and tut-tut, but Labor will get on preparing to run the country.
That’s because it does, right there in the Act. I’ve read it for myself; you can too right here.
The money quote(s) is on filepage 29-30 (index p 25-26)
Going to s317E (filepage 19-20, index page 15-16), the “listed acts or things” are listed:
The various security agencies can now order ISPs to bypass their own encryption upon the Government’s say-so. No warrant required. No appeal possible.
So if the understanding you’ve described as inaccurate, then what is the “accurate” understanding?
I did four digital images tonight. They’re called
The Angel of Misgiving
The Angel of Simple Hope
The Angel of Repentance
The Angel of Humility
They are in some respects really exquisite, though for sure they are also very simple. They go very well with sardines, olive oil and pinot noir.
@Matt says @1:57 am
Well all that is just depressing. Another sad day in politics in this country.
That would explain why the April budget will be “surplus” (to requirements.)
Some very psephing stuff in this one. Brexit = diabolical dilemmas as far as the eye can see, IMO:
This is what is needed to get away from Nationalistic Authoritarian policies.
“A grassroots movement for global justice”
An interesting comment on the Katarine Murphy article at the Grauniad site:
That makes sense. It just shows how utterly inept this “government” is. This encryption idiocy will be fought tooth and nail by the tech giants. It will probably even be rejected by the High Court. However if it does pass all those hurdles, it will kill off nay chance at all of Australia becoming a player in the armaments export industry.
Katharine Murphy gets it!
Barney in Go Dau @ #2528 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 3:47 am
That would be the same Katharine Murphy who wrote all those hagiographies to Malcolm Turnbull I take it?
The same Katharine Murphy who told everyone that Mediscare was a lie?
The same Katharine Murphy who had the biggest story of last year sitting in her lap (Barnaby Rootgate), but ignored it and wrote six articles in the space of a week about how Adani was a big problem for Bill Shorten?
That Katharine Murphy?
Rick Wilson shames Trump again …. Wilson praises HW Bush for getting the last laugh on Trump by forcing him to attend memorial and be miserable
Trump could’ve ruined Bush’s funeral. Bush didn’t let him.
By including the current president, the late president preempted his successor’s proclivity for draining the dignity out of solemn occasions.
By insisting on his successor’s inclusion in the proceedings, Bush forced the current White House occupant to briefly abandon his unfrozen cave-man act, denying him the chance to further debase the office of president by siphoning the dignity out of 41’s final hours in D.C. — something 45 likely would have relished, given the opportunity.
We were never likely to have armanents industry and if by some quantum leap in business acumen in the future most factors including encryption will have altered and have nil effect on anything.
Labor and Shorten yesterday snookered the LNP and Morrison from belting out the security/refugee/boatspeople smuggler/Sudanese nonsense from being front and centre and the only hope the LNP and Morrison have of not being tossed out on their collective ears whenever the next election is held.
The Greens as usual, grappling with any issue to make themselves relevant and to hide their shame resulting from their collaboration with the LNP in hobbling any meaningful progress in taking steps to halt the progress od global warming.
Just lets have an election and discontinue this political parody that the LNP has become.
Trump claims his approval rating would be ‘75%’ without Mueller’s ‘presidential harassment’
President Donald Trump on Thursday broke his silence in the wake of former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral to once again attack special counsel Robert Mueller and his probe of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
“Without the phony Russia Witch Hunt, and with all that we have accomplished in the last almost two years (Tax & Regulation Cuts, Judge’s, Military, Vets, etc.) my approval rating would be at 75% rather than the 50% just reported by Rasmussen,” the president wrote. “It’s called Presidential Harassment!”
You really need to develop your comprehension skills.
Ex-DOJ official says Mueller is going to throw the book at Manafort
Former Department of Justice official Matthew Miller told MSNBC on Thursday that he fully expected special counsel Robert Mueller to throw the book at President Trump’s convicted former campaign chair Paul Manafort and make an example out of him for lying.
“Given the fact that Manafort took the somewhat egregious step to lie to the special prosecutor after he signed cooperation agreement, you can look for them to recommend a jail sentence that puts him in prison likely for the rest of his life,” he added.
Thats like saying we where never going to keep the Car Industry anyway, so it was ok for the Libs to chase them away.
I agree an arms industry was a bit unlikely to happen, but the Libs have been pushing it for a while, and the anti-encryption legislation will make it more difficult for foreigners to trust the Australian Government.
Katharine Murphy appeared on Insiders last Sunday in an outfit from the set of ‘Lost In Space’. Apt.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe says every moment in that sorry day yesterday revealed the government’s precarious hold on Parliament.
David Wroe writes that the Morrison government has politicised encryption, all but daring Labor to look weak on national security. Labor has wriggled and tacked so many times it has been hard to keep track of where they stand. He describes yesterday’s events as a damning indictment on both sides.
Katharine Murphy reckons Morrison may not have lost the vote, but his prime ministerial authority is waning.
More from Murphy as she says Australia’s power companies have hit the roof over a last-minute inclusion in the Morrison government’s controversial energy package handing the Australian Energy Regulator power to regulate power prices, without judicial review.
Parliament entered a reverse universe in Question Time yesterday. Everything was the wrong way around writes John Passant.
Michelle Grattan thinks the government is all over the place. She says that In the topsy turvy Liberal universe, just when the right is trying to tighten its grip on the throat of the party, the government is haring off to the left, with this week’s legislation to allow it to break up recalcitrant energy companies.
Jacqui Maley describes it as a day of high farce ending on a low note.
Michael Koziol looks behind the refugee bill that plunged the Parliament into chaos yesterday.
Simon Benson says Bill Shorten has softened Labor’s border-protection policy ahead of the party’s national conference.
Phil Coorey tells us why there will be no come-from-behind miracle for Scott Morrison.
The SMH editorial says that these new encryption powers need careful scrutiny.
Michael Pascoe writes that There’s a golden opportunity for the Business Council of Australia to re-establish some economic credibility and fill the federal leadership vacuum. It can do so with a simple measure that would benefit the nation, BCA members and even the federal government heading into the May election.
Scott Ludlam writes that national security is a government strength – so Labor will let them be reckless with it.
Waleed Aly sys that it’s no wonder we no longer trust our institutions.
David Estcourt and Nicole Precel ask whether or not the Liberals avoid an epic defeat.
Jennifer Hewett says no expressions of goodwill Christmas sentiment could hide the vicious political party games ending the parliamentary year.
Never mind de-encryption. The Australian Border Force is quietly slashing staff numbers at airports over the busy Christmas period and is believed to have suspended a fleet of boats supposed to protect the nation’s northern waters, in cost-cutting moves that insiders say threaten national security.
Professor Patrick Mullins writes that when it comes to politics Australia is living through a decade of locums.
Michael Galvin breaks down some of the reasons behind the Liberal Party’s loss at the Victorian election according to electorates.
The AFR explains the Morrison government’s ‘big stick’ energy bill.
The Morrison government has appointed six new deputy presidents with employer backgrounds to the Fair Work Commission, ignoring a recommendation by tribunal president Iain Ross and sparking Labor and union claims it has stacked the workplace umpire ahead of the federal election.
This is a bit of a worry. Doug Dingwall tells us that the Defence Department doesn’t know how much it will cost to maintain its new multibillion dollar fleet of warplanes as officials wait for United States-based support to become ready.
Professor Justin O’Brien explains why the whole world is watching to see what Commissioner Kenneth Hayne does next.
Banks and other big companies would face unprecedented fines of billions of dollars rather than a capped $210 million for civil offences, under changes that Labor wants to make to a federal bill.
Jacob Saulwick reports that the Cloud Arch, the wisp of inspiration to have framed Sydney’s George Street pedestrian and light rail boulevard, is for the chop: a victim of cost over-runs and the bogged-down process of building the tram line.
The Morrison Government has piked out and closed the Lower House to avoid tackling Nauru. An important whistleblower bill will now be pushed back to February 2019.
Controversial Chinese telco Huawei has been hit with a double blow after its chief financial officer – the company founder’s daughter – was arrested on United States criminal charges and a major UK telco vowed to rip its equipment out of its telephone networks.
John McDuling writes that it looks like the Gillard government got it right when it barred Hauwei from supplying equipment for Australia’s multi-billion dollar national broadband network in 2012.
US stocks extended an across-the-board rout, with the Dow suffering deep losses triggered by signs that a prospective US-China trade deal was in jeopardy.
Stephen Koukoulas advises us to not fall for the spin – Scott Morrison’s budget surplus is no certainty.
Western Sydney is thriving, but it bears burden of domestic violence.
Richard Baker reports that a blockbuster inquiry into a West Australian Aboriginal charitable trust responsible for handling millions of dollars in mining royalties has prompted legislative reforms that could have national implications.
Speaking at a clean energy conference, Malcolm Turnbull told his audience everything they wanted to hear, which turned out to be classic political misdirection, writes Giles Parkinson.
Australia would have to reduce electricity sector emissions by 60 to 70 per cent in order to meet the Paris targets, a leading climate scientist says.
Richo writes that the big exposure in Victoria is not the usual corrupt cop story.
The encounter at George H W Bush’s funeral was a real-time illustration of the uneasy ties between the current occupant of the White House and his predecessors, suggesting Trump as a member-in-name-only of the Oval Office fraternity.
Lawrence Douglas explains how Republicans are staging mini-coups across the US.
Woolworths has denied dispatching a squad of online trolls to howl down users who post complaints on the company’s Facebook page. An investigation by The New Daily found more than 50 instances in the past two months where Woolworths customers were targeted by the same group of four users after making negative complaints about the supermarket giant.
The UK is suspending its investor visas for the rich, closing a route to permanent residence and British citizenship that’s popular with Russian oligarchs and wealthy Chinese.
Where does the stench end? Now it’s revealed that a Saudi-backed lobbyist paid for 500 rooms at Trump hotel just after the 2016 election.
Mattew Dunckley reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle has warned that the Australian banking industry’s habit of acting as a pack could exacerbate the housing slowdown.
Joanne McCarty dispassionately reports on the dismissal of Archbishop Philip Wilson’s conviction. She would have found it hard.
At last! The number of children in Australia with full immunisation coverage has spiked, hitting a record high, according to new data.
Lucy McCormack tells us about the fresh set of eyes that investigated the alleged murder of Lynette Dawson.
Kate Aubusson reports that now the head of anaesthetics at Northern Beaches Hospital (NBH) has resigned after clashes between hospital operator Healthscope and anaesthetists who raised serious concerns about systemic failures that risked compromising patient care. Where’s it going to end?
Despite the obvious disappointment of the Morrison Government, the nation can build an energy network reliant on renewables, while lowering prices. Martin Zavan explains.
When will the AFL give up tampering with the rules of the game?
According to Matt Cleary Fox edged Seven as Test cricket on Australian TV enters brave new era.
Pig hearts could soon be tested in humans after scientists passed an important milestone by keeping primates alive for three months after transplanting the organs. Surgeons in Germany grafted pig hearts into five baboons and kept four of the animals alive for at least 90 days, with one still in good health for more than six months.
And for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” we have a 70 year old.
David Rowe’s been using ghosts quite a bit lately.
Mark David loves to depict Morrison as a coal-loving cleric.
Glen Le Lievre thinks things may have gone a bit far.
David Pope takes the government onto summer recess.
Jon Kudelka on Shorten’s gift to Morrison.
More in here.
A completely different set of technological circumstances exist now is a massive understatement. The pace of change within the armanents industry would at best allow Australia to have a bit part and be at the mercy of the major players.
Many factors make Australia unattractive to develop industry. Any future industrial progress will involve using our most abundant resources sunshine, wind and stuff we dig out the ground. Food production is at the goodwill of the Gods of climate change.
Player One @ #1989 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:12 pm
Thanks for that.
I note that renewables are now 39 TWh, gas 19TWh, Brown Coal 36 TWh, Black Coal 110 TWh.
This gives 39/204 x 100 = 19%, which is the most optimistic result I have seen. And renewables are showing recent steady good growth in production 0ver the last three years,
and nearly doubling since 2009. (28, 34, 39 for the last three years)
But greenhouse gas emissions are way up for the whole energy sector, negating the gains made during the carbon price scheme.
There is no reality in which we are on track to meet our (pathetic) Paris targets “in a canter”. Nothing in the figures suggest we have made “solid progress”.
These latest emissions figures remain an utter condemnation of this government’s complete lack of care about climate change and are an indictment on all of those who have served in its ranks – especially its three prime ministers, and three ministers for the environment.
Pegasus @ #2201 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
They can expect lack of cooperation from the hardware and software manufacturers. It would be very difficult if not impossible to make them do that, I suspect.
I can only hope Shorten knows what he is doing with the encryption legislation.
I would rather Labor had voted against it.
I can only conclude there was a high risk of the Lib gov’t setting up a ‘terrorist’ raid or event while claiming the Encryption Bill would have prevented it.
It is not as if they haven’t done this before. Someone gets arrested for buying a plastic sword, or gets arrested under terrorism legislation for nothing and goes free, no charges, months later when the headlines have died down.
Maybe that was Morrison and Dutton’s Big Plan for Christmas or Australia Day.
Whatever the plan, it has fallen on its face.
Now the gov’t will be dealing with the big ITC companies, who will not be pleased. The Minister responsible for Communication is going to be busy, I reckon.
I am reluctant to criticise Shorten because he has not put a foot wrong so far, and I assume there is a tactical reason for this vote.
bug1 @ #2482 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:24 pm
I hope so. The gov’t put this legislation up, and they got what they wanted. It does the ALP no good to refuse to support anything labelled a ‘Security Measure’.
The people voted in this rabble as their gov’t. So they get what this rabble serves up. (I wonder how many complaining about this legislation actually voted this gov’t into power?)
Far be it for Labor to interfere with the will of the people!
Now let the gov’t and the people can deal with what they wanted.
You keep giving someone what they want, over and over, until they do not want it anymore.
Why should the ALP damage their chances of winning the election to save the voters from themselves?
Me cynical? You bet, and you can blame the Abbott era for that.
FVck being Mr/Ms Nice Mug.
don @ #2544 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:22 pm
Has there been a glitch in the matrix?
12:52 pm to 8:22 pm with no posts seems excessive.