Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”


  1. PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 7:42 pm

    Well, that is surprising. I wonder why Labor changed its mind?

    What was he action just before shorten came out and said we will support if you agree to pass the agreed amendments.

    The minor parties said they would not support the Labor amendments. The greens played to impotent again.

  2. Patrick Bateman @ #2327 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    “to be used judiciously, hopefully, by our security services”

    You couldn’t write satire this good.

    You seem so young but I hope you are older because cynicism this deep in one who is young is not a good thing. Sometimes you just have to trust people who have you, and your family’s best interests and safety at heart.

  3. Diog

    ‘Lots of people applauding Shorten for his pragmatic Lib-lite approach to asylum seekers/terrorism are the same people who applauded Vic Andrews for showing that you can win by running a progressive agenda.’

    Except that Andrews is really, really big on Law And Order and Foiling Terrorists. (It’s why I have reservations about him…combined, of course, with the fact I’ve known him since he was a young thing at Uni….)


  4. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    fred
    “I’d hate to play poker against Shorten”
    Today the Liberals called his bluff and he folded like a pack of cards. If he tries that too often at poker, he’ll lose a lot of money.

    You think the game is over; you have stated racking up the money before the cards a laid.

  5. frednk says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    fred
    “I’d hate to play poker against Shorten”
    Today the Liberals called his bluff and he folded like a pack of cards. If he tries that too often at poker, he’ll lose a lot of money.

    You think the game is over; you have stated racking up the money before the cards a laid.
    ———————————————————————————-
    “You got to know when to hold ’em; know when to fold ’em.
    “Know when to walk away; know when to run.
    “You don’t ever count your money while you’re sittin’ at the table.
    “There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’ is done.”

    The dealin ain’t done till the election.

  6. C@tmomma @ #2353 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    Patrick Bateman @ #2327 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    You couldn’t write satire this good.

    Sometimes you just have to trust people who have you, and your family’s best interests and safety at heart.

    It appears that not only can satire that good be written, it can be maintained in its sequel.

    The security services mandate is to protect the state and its various instruments. You and your family will happily be sacrificed as collateral damage to protect the state.

  7. With the Christmas spendathon underway, a news article today said consumers would be tightening their belts due to economic conditions including low/zero wage growth. Retailing is apparently in the doldrums. I’m also told that demand for food hampers from charities is very high this year.

    By this weekend voters across Australia will be considering their personal financial situation and will have little inclination to ponder over Labor’s “backdown” on the encryption legislation.

    On the other hand, in the “season of goodwill” we can probably expect a heightened campaign over children on Nauru with the finger pointed at the Morrison government for shutting down the HoR to prevent legislation being passed.

  8. fred
    “You think the game is over; you have stated racking up the money before the cards a laid.”
    I don’t think the game is over at all but if you cave too often it is over. That’s exactly what Rudd did; ditched too many policies and lost the public and party.

  9. Out of curiosity guys, how is this going to compromise my freedoms if I’m a law abiding citizen. Just asking!

    Depends do you bank online and if so do you like your bank balance staying in your back account?
    Do you live below a dam; would you like that water to stay in the dam.
    Do you use a lift; would you like the lift to work.
    Do you drive on the road; would you like the traffic lights to work properly.
    End to end security matters; it matters a lot.

  10. Dan Gulberry @ #2354 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:09 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2348 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    Diogenes @ #2316 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:31 pm

    C@t
    “I just don’t think potential terrorism plotters should have that right, nor the freedom to do it in this country.”
    I don’t think they do either but why shouldn’t the security agencies get a warrant for that data?

    As far as I know, that is one of the amendments Labor has put forward.

    And then voted against it.

    And if you read Katherine Murphy, and you read David Crowe, and especially if you read the statement of the President of the Law Council of Australia, you will be well-informed as to the reason why.

  11. Personally I’d like to see well paid politicians pay for meals with their own money like most of us but it rarely happens. All you have to do is claim you are working late.

  12. frednk,
    If I lived below a dam with my family, I would hope to hell that the Security Agencies would have access to the conversations of terrorism plotters that wanted to blow up that dam and kill me, my family and hundreds and thousands of others, so they couldn’t get away with it. Wouldn’t you?

  13. frednk @ #2364 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Out of curiosity guys, how is this going to compromise my freedoms if I’m a law abiding citizen. Just asking!

    Depends do you bank online and if so do you like your bank balance staying in your back account?
    Do you live below a dam; would you like that water to stay in the dam.
    Do you use a lift; would you like the lift to work.
    Do you drive on the road; would you like the traffic lights to work properly.
    End to end security matters; it matters a lot.

    Add “Do you ever travel by air”.

  14. “Labor backdown allows Federal Government to pass controversial encryption laws”
    On the ABC, seems this will be a fairly wide spread perception

    Meanwhile the regular Lab grubs here are worrying how about the Australian, and other Murdoch media they fake rail against, is painting their dear leader, apparently some people’s one true saviour
    Seems like the relative abundance of posts they make is evidence of just how weak, feeble and unsure of themselves they are
    Seriously nothing more worthwhile or useful to do with their lives than spend all day everyday here, screaming and squealing

  15. Labor and the Libs did a deal on the security Bill. Good. Labor have said – in effect – they trust the word of the Libersls on this subject. OK. What’s not to like ?

    The Gs are screaming. Excellent. They can go f emselves. There is only one thing worse than being opposed by the Gs on security matters and that’s being supported by them.

    Shorten got a positive commitment from the Libs. There is no wedge. The process of accessing encrypted messages – intrinsically difficult to do – can begin.

    Good.

    The hoax party lost. Absolutely excellent results all round.

  16. I remember see Whitlam at White City Stadium ( pile of firewood) he was about to put McMahon out of his misery, this time I think Scott is putting himself out of his misery. Epic omnishambles

  17. Labor shills now sounding like the Coalition. Terrorists bla bla bla fucking bla. It’s not true.

    If it had gone the other way you would have been proclaiming their magnificence.

    As a wannabe Labor voter, I’m actually curious. You people don’t actually care, except about your beloved Labor, cos you know politics is about the “possible” or whatever trite shit you can churn out when they roll over?

    It’s just parking yourself with a tribe and telling everyone else the horseshit they just served up is caviar.

    Yuck.

  18. Dan Gulberry @ #2371 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    briefly @ #2374 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Labor have said – in effect – they trust the word of the Libersls on this subject. OK. What’s not to like ?

    Sorry c@tmomma, briefly has just won the prize for satire.

    You’ll have to raise (lower?) your standards dramatically to beat stupidity like the above quote.

    Sorry, but I’m just trying to be reasonable and measured. I’m leaving the hyperbole up to others, such as yourself.

  19. C@t

    Sorry, but I’m just trying to be reasonable and measured. I’m leaving the hyperbole up to others, such as yourself.

    _____________________________________

    And a very good job you are doing too. A lot of hysterical squealing at the moment. And skunk troll hour is upon us. So keeping your head will screw them up.

  20. C@tmomma @ #2381 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2371 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    briefly @ #2374 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Labor have said – in effect – they trust the word of the Libersls on this subject. OK. What’s not to like ?

    Sorry c@tmomma, briefly has just won the prize for satire.

    You’ll have to raise (lower?) your standards dramatically to beat stupidity like the above quote.

    Sorry, but I’m just trying to be reasonable and measured.

    Blindly following is now “reasonable and measured”, eh?

    Nice try, but briefly still wins.

    Keep trying.

  21. Amongst all the Lab bot propaganda here
    It seems the UK have had similar type of legislation for a couple of years and every single human in the UK has been safe and there has never been any incidence of terror or violence since then? Which has worked seamlessly?
    Lib and Lab securing the future of Australia, for themselves, for ever

  22. Sigil,
    I honestly hope you or yours never suffer the loss of a loved one to a terrorism incident, just because you want to preserve some outmoded concept of ‘freedom’.

    You know, it’s interesting how these ‘Rights and Freedoms’ warriors are prepared to embrace new technology and apps such as WhatsApp, but won’t countenance our governments seeking to fix up an exploit which has been identified.

    I’m sure that you don’t think twice about the apps on your phones being constantly updated to do pretty similar sorts of things but when your government tries to do something that the tech companies won’t, on behalf of the citizens whose safety they are entrusted to keep at the forefront of their considerations, then, all of a sudden you get up in arms about it.

    It just doesn’t pass the common sense test.

  23. Dan Gulberry @ #2379 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2381 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2371 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    briefly @ #2374 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Labor have said – in effect – they trust the word of the Libersls on this subject. OK. What’s not to like ?

    Sorry c@tmomma, briefly has just won the prize for satire.

    You’ll have to raise (lower?) your standards dramatically to beat stupidity like the above quote.

    Sorry, but I’m just trying to be reasonable and measured.

    Blindly following is now “reasonable and measured”, eh?

    Nice try, but briefly still wins.

    Keep trying.

    You have the EQ of your avatar.

  24. I think Laura Tingle had a pretty good take on Labor passing the encryption bill. Essentially she said they looked at what the Liberals were threatening to do if a terrorism incident happened over Christmas and simply assessed the risk as too great.

    I would have assessed it differently but I’m not a member of the alternative government and that’s what they’re paid to do – and have been doing pretty well for the last 5 years or so.

    If there is an incident it is almost certain that the new legislation will not have played any role in preventing or not preventing anything, but Labor can blast the government for their incompetence and be free from blowback.

    The whole security against political terrorism thing really needs a complete revision and hopefully a new Labor government will set this in motion – not sure if a RC would be the appropriate mechanism. Until I sat next to a copper at a social event who was high up in a state police force and had been in charge of their operations in this area, I didn’t appreciate how much they are involved in this area and how cross-linked all the security agencies at state and federal level are. Also, that there are real threats that are constantly tracked and acted on. This sphere of activity is not a joke and can’t be easily reduced to trite political arguments from either side, and I got the impression that the professionals are less than rapt in how it is used as a political football, because that makes their job so much harder.

    As I said earlier, I think this current legislation has little chance of working effectively but that doesn’t make it any less than a potential political problem for Labor.

    I know it’s not the done thing to criticise the voters (not possible to elect a new public) but the rewards they have given the coalition for playing this political card over the decades make rational progress very difficult. Shorten’s interview tonight on 7:30 was perfectly pitched – project an image of calm confidence and express genuine (well, at least fake genuine) regret that the coalition are running about like headless political chooks rather than acting cooperatively with the opposition as “the public expects”.

  25. Sigil
    At five o’clock a bunch of people were saying how great Shorten was for not passing the encryption bill.
    Sixty minutes later, quite a few of the same people were cheering his decision to back the Liberal bill.
    Policy doesn’t matter if you are a sheeple.

  26. The bleating clowns from the faux-left clearly hope Labor will lose the election. Labor is attracting votes in very large numbers from the ranks of past-Liberal supporters. These voters equate the Liberal Party with security, order, safety…whether you like it or not. Labor’s greatest asset at the moment is the perception that they represent “safe hands” for power. They will do nothing to compromise this perception. They will most certainly not indulge the whinging of the frauds posing as lefties who hope to frustrate and defeat Labor.

    The fake left can all gagf. They represent next to no-one. Their business plan is self-defeating. They hope only to up-end Labor so they may profit themselves.

    Shorten has got it right. Once again.

  27. Quoll @ #2387 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    It seems the UK have had similar type of legislation for a couple of years and every single human in the UK has been safe and there has never been any incidence of terror or violence since then? Which has worked seamlessly?/blockquote>

    Something similar happened a while back when there was a debate over the efficacy of having surveillance cameras everywhere.

    The usual suspects were claiming “they will keep us safe from terrorists”.

    The UK has more surveillance cameras than any other nation in the western world. Didn’t do a damn thing to prevent terrorist attacks, but they did provide some good footage for the news bulletins after the event(s).

  28. Anyways, I’d like one of the supporters of the police state on here to explain how terrorists would be caught if they reverted to handwritten communications which were then subsequently burnt or eaten after being memorised?

  29. Diogenes, that’s because they need a leader and a party to think for them. They are merely vessels which carry the Labor message. Change the message, the vessel changes its tune. It’s an outsourcing of your critical faculties to belong to a tribe.

  30. TPOF,
    Obviously, not one of the squealing piggies have thought twice about how they would feel if it was one of their family members who was the next victim of an Australian terrorist. I guess they would be happy to still have their ‘fundamental freedoms’ to arrange the funeral over WhatsApp with their friends and family.

  31. The UK legislation is a lot more intelligent, a lot more considered, a lot less political, and not technically ignorant. The Germans, leaders in the field, would just laugh at this and point out that both terror attacks they have suffered would NOT have been prevented by even magic powers (which is really what the legislation is about it isn’t grounded in any reality), but could have easily been prevented authorities simply using the information they had well. Which pretty much sums up the situation in Australia, including the issues that were much more mental health and not really terrorism at all, but the authorities already had what they needed, they just didn’t use it.

    So other than there not being an established need

    Other than there being no consensus amongst experts on what would be the most appropriate approach even if they could establish a need

    Other than the Australian approach being an international laughing stock, and almost certainly doomed to succeed in anything but stuffing our tech industry and having companies pull out of our tiny and irrelevant market.

    Other than those things Labor did fantastic today. Oh wait they promised they would get the kids of Nauru legislation through if the Govt got their insanely stupid legislation through and they couldn’t do that.

    It is an achievement I wouldn’t have thought possible, but the Muppet PM, the most ridiculed useless PM Australia has ever seen, just massively outplayed the ALP. Pretty f*cking humiliating to be destroyed by and look the weak and pathetic fools to the worst Govt ever but Shorten and friends did that today.

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