Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. You people don’t think that the right to communicate in private without warrantless government surveillance is a fundamental freedom?

  2. fred
    “I’d hate to play poker against Shorten”
    Today the Liberals called his bluff and he folded like a pack of cards. If he tries that too often at poker, he’ll lose a lot of money.

  3. I see that the Greens want to send the cotton growing overseas or clear 500,000 hectares of Queensland and send the cotton industry north.
    Rice, by a million tons a year, ditto.
    I would like each Greens Bludger to be 100% consistent with their renowned ethical standards and to examine their wardrobe and to send all their GMO cottons to Vinnies. That would be all of their cottons.
    Also, I would like the Greens to reduce their rice consumption by one million tons (and not replace it with other foods) so they are not depriving hungry people overseas of the thing that stops them from starving to death.
    Consistency. Accountability. Sustainability.

  4. And Amen to that!

    Morry Bailes, President of the Law Council of Australia:

    “The half-amended encryption access laws rammed through the Senate are better than the original, but serious concerns remain.

    “We now have a situation where unprecedented powers to access encrypted communications are now law, even though Parliament knows serious problems exist.

    “This is what happens when you compromise a committee process and allow the work of parliament to be rushed and politicised.

    “Next year, as well as passing the remaining amendments, the intelligence and security committee needs to be brought back into the frame to get these laws right.

    “The committee can ensure there are no unintended consequences, which could be to the detriment of us all.

    “We support the object of these laws in order to keep us safe, but we cannot weaken the rule of law in the process,” Mr Bailes said.

  5. Patrick
    So, let’s say that on Christmas Day some benighted Somali runs a truck up Bourke Street and kills and maims a few families.
    Let us also say that the organisation for the truck, etc, etc, was done via encrypted channels.
    Let us say that the Greens were able to stop reading of encrypted comms.
    Would the Greens parliamentarians resign en masse for having failed?
    No?
    Or
    Yes?

  6. Vogon Poet says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:24 pm
    Upnorth @ #1783 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Rex did you get meme lessons from Nath? Do you also eat flake??

    He’s a mexican too, of course he does
    —————————————————————————

    Oh those poor sharks

  7. For what it’s worth, I think Bill Shorten and Mark Dreyfus did the wrong thing. I don’t feel safer. I understand why they agreed, but I think they are too bothered by the risk of another Tampa occurring. But even if it does, Morrison is not Howard and he inspires no confidence.

    That said, the pro forma hyperventilating by some of the Greens here is no less cynical politicking as anything else we have seen today.

    There are advantages to Labor for folding today. In the end, the government has nobody to blame if more shit happens. It also will not impact on Labor, other than to bleed a few more votes to the greens.

    These are not great times for democracies, so we have to be grateful for what we have. Bill Shorten had a great interview with Leigh Sales tonight, with none of the usual nonsense she comes out with when she interviews Shorten. Shorten is seeking to occupy the middle ground thoroughly and he is succeeding. I just wish he’d held out this time.

  8. Upnorth @ #1790 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    Vogon Poet says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:24 pm
    Upnorth @ #1783 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Rex did you get meme lessons from Nath? Do you also eat flake??

    He’s a mexican too, of course he does
    —————————————————————————

    Oh those poor sharks

    rex and nath are gummy like the sharks they eat, no bite at all.

  9. Lots of people applauding Shorten for his pragmatic Lib-lite approach to asylum seekers/terrorism are the same people who applauded Vic Andrews for showing that you can win by running a progressive agenda.

  10. Poor Chrissy lost it with this:

    ‘In an inflammatory attack, Defence Minister Christopher Pyne accused Labor in a tweet of helping “terrorists and paedophiles” by putting the security laws at risk, only to delete the claim hours before Labor agreed to the laws.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-escapes-threat-to-his-control-of-parliament-as-labor-backs-down-on-encryption-20181206-p50kqf.html

    Never mind, I’m sure you’ll do a sterling job as Manager of Opposition Business, come May.

  11. @Boerwar:

    I will now eat my Christmas dinner 100% safe in the knowledge that terrorists will not be using encrypted messaging to cause a massacre.

    Thank you Mr Shorten.

    1. No, you can’t – because most (international) ISPs will quite rightly tell our increasingly totalitarian Government to get bent rather than fork over this data. The legislation is unenforceable against offshore companies.

    2. To the extent that you can, you could anyway – there has been to date ZERO evidence that encrypted messaging, the new bugaboo of the rabid Right, was used to plan any of the (very few) instances of terrorist attack against Australians. The legislation is not needed, and would not have helped prevent any prior attacks – as multiple external analysts have concluded.

    3. I hope you enjoy Christmas dinner, because 2019’s just going to get worse. Having blinked, Labor can now expect incrementally more extreme legislation to be put forward on a dozen pet Coalition issues in the New Year, all dressed up as “counter-terrorism”, all forcing Labor to choose when – if ever – to take a stand.

    4. There is zero – zero – political upside for Labor in nodding along. By neutering its own stance on “civil liberties” and the right to privacy, how can Labor now expect to be taken seriously in any other area?

    5. All of this assumes that Moralsnone et al don’t just outright abuse the laws to surveill and/or disrupt political opponents under the guise of “national security”. After all, that was the rationale behind the formation of the Commonwealth Investigative Branch (now known as the AFP) – to protect Australia from the “dangerous, militant” trade unions!

    Labor had set-up to stall this bill’s passage, which Shorten had even highlighted in his adjournment speech. Labor had won; the bill’s passage was stalled, which Shorten all but claimed credit for in his adjournment speech. Labor had secured stalling of this bill’s passage, by successfully getting an amendment up in the Senate – with the House adjourning, the legislation would be in limbo until the House reconvened to consider the amendments. And Labor supporters here (quite rightly) cheered Labor for doing so.

    Now, besides all the rotten policy-making aspects of this legislation, there’s now the political aspects to also appreciate – after setting Labor up and marketing the reason why Labor blocked this legislation, Labor now looks utterly weak and feckless for caving at the last possible second.

    And some people here are still cheering. Incredible. This is a serious ‘own goal’, no two ways about it.

    Will Morrison return in Feb to face defeat on the Nauru bill, or will we be voting in March ?

    Who says he’d lose? After this latest stunt, I halfway suspect Shorten would back down rather than push for the Nauru bill to pass over the Government’s objections! Mustn’t embolden the people-smugglers, after all – or whatever other bullshit, farcical lie the Coalition will peddle to get its way.

  12. C@t
    “I just don’t think potential terrorism plotters should have that right, nor the freedom to do it in this country.”
    I don’t think they do either but why shouldn’t the security agencies get a warrant for that data?

  13. So, here is the score.

    1. Morrison has to try to implement an unworkable Comms Act. The chances of it failing are around 100%.
    2. Morrison once again bastardized sick people on Nauru. How out of touch is that?
    3. Morrison once again bastardized LGBTIQ kids in schools. How out of touch is that?

    Of course there is a lot of Canberra Froth and Bubble around those issues but really chaps!

    Meanwhile… the hip pocket nerve is screaming for most Australians.

  14. “This is Politics guys.

    Labor be proud of your pragmatism – only Bill Shorten and Labor can make Australia a better and fairer place to live.”

    Yup, that’s where we are at the moment. The manifest idiocy of people who think that Shorten should have some absolute magic powers to change things from opposition is quite incredible.

    Sad to see the Nauru bill not passed, but again if the Fwarking Liberals who made the actual decisions that caused that.

    Anyway, looking ahead will be interesting to see the platform that comes out of the ALP conference.

  15. “I just don’t think potential terrorism plotters should have that right, nor the freedom to do it in this country.”

    And who decides who is in that category? Go and read a history book, for Christ’s sake. People with your attitude are a vastly bigger threat to our society than terrorists.

  16. The bewildering thing, to my eyes is, that so many of these crusaders for ‘fundamental freedoms’, live in the big cities of this country. These are the places targeted by brainwashed terrorists. Without the tools required to target THEM, to be used judiciously, hopefully, by our security services, those people complaining about these laws so vociferously tonight could very well be the next victim, or someone from their family or group of friends, as they walk down the street, catch a bus or a train, or go shopping in a mall, or to a restaurant for a meal. I doubt they would be so generous in their perspectives about protecting their ‘fundamental freedoms’ if that were to be the case.

    I love my family and friends and I simply want us all to live as safely as possible.

  17. ‘Matt says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:30 pm

    @Boerwar:

    I will now eat my Christmas dinner 100% safe in the knowledge that terrorists will not be using encrypted messaging to cause a massacre.

    Thank you Mr Shorten.

    1. No, you can’t – because most (international) ISPs will quite rightly tell our increasingly totalitarian Government to get bent rather than fork over this data. The legislation is unenforceable against offshore companies.’

    So, we agree that the Act is much ado about nothing because it is unworkable. I predict that Mr Morrison will be desperate for some amendments come the next sitting… if the bastard lasts that long.

  18. William – Yes, seriously. I haven’t bothered to follow this whole encryption law thingo. Nor has 99 per cent of the population. I still haven’t heard a reason why labor should not pass it and clean it up later.

  19. C@tmomma @ #2311 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Patrick Bateman @ #2296 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:22 pm

    You people don’t think that the right to communicate in private without warrantless government surveillance is a fundamental freedom?

    I just don’t think potential terrorism plotters should have that right, nor the freedom to do it in this country.

    And who exactly determines what constitutes a “potential terrorist”? Peter Dutton?

    How do they find out exactly who is a “potential terrorist”?

    Oh, and the actual leaders of genuine terrorist organisations are not stupid people. They will, if they haven’t already, find a way to get around these new laws. A few lone wolf idiots may well get caught, but the genuine, hard core bastards will continue to operate and function.

    Another point. What happens if the genuine, hard core terrorists decide to eschew electronic communications altogether. How are they going to get caught?

  20. Good evening all,

    Interesting ” analysis” from many posters as to how Shorten failed today.

    If labor had been successful with its amendments in the senate it would not have made one ounce of difference. It would simply have meant that if there was one sniff of a ” terrorist” event over Christmas Shorten and labor would have been pummelled by the government and the very same MSM now accusing labor of backing down. Right or not labor would cop the blame. Willing to take the punt nothing happens over Christmas ? Labor was not and made the sensible choice. Labor has made it clear the legislation is flawed and had extracted a ” promise” from the government to address its amendments in the new year. Of course the government will reject them but that is not the point. The point is the government has agreed to do so and labor had made the point the legislation needs changes.

    Now, if any event occurs over the Christmas break labor cannot be blamed. The government will be responsible. After a acceptable period of respectful silence labor can push for its ammendments and point out the government had promised to review at the request of labor.

    Why leave yourself open over Christmas for a possible terrorist Tampa event simply to claim the supposed moral high ground ?

    Labor has done what it had to. Remember, it wad Morrison who ran away and shut down the HOR. Not labor.

    BTW, how many Australians have any idea as to what this encryption bullshit is ? Compare those numbers to how many Australians would be hearing and mulling over how labor had failed to make Australia safe and put everyone in danger by refusing to compromise on this bill if a event occurs.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  21. To be clear, are we putting our faith in our spy services who abused their powers to steal from our poverty stricken neighbour then went on a witch hunt to punish a whistle-blower, the AFP who routinely misuse their powers to support right wing political aims, or the state police who have been shown over and over again to be susceptible to corruption and willing to abuse their powers?

  22. We’re now less secure, not more, but apparently this is ok because Australians will, in their ignorance of how encryption works, feel comforted.

  23. “other than to bleed a few more votes to the greens.”

    80 +% of which will come back as preferences regardless of how the Greens HTV card reads. 🙂

    “1. Morrison has to try to implement an unworkable Comms Act. The chances of it failing are around 100%.
    2. Morrison once again bastardized sick people on Nauru. How out of touch is that?
    3. Morrison once again bastardized LGBTIQ kids in schools. How out of touch is that?”

    Hate it when i’m agreeing with BW all the time. 🙂

    People, today was a complete bastardisation of real policy and governance. All due to Liberal game playing, and the kaos they have created. ScoMo’s “Pollie under Pressure” speech of the morning will probably be the most memorable take out of the day

    Yup, the media will revert to type, for a while, and do the “ALP Backdown” thing. This will evaporate quickly as the Libs keep the rolling fwarkups coming out of left field.

  24. Amy signs off, but it seems she’s going to the ALP national conference, so we’ve got that next week. 🙂

    And with that imbroglio of omnishambled batshit chicanery that was the final sitting of parliament, we are going to close the blog down for the night.

    But you get an extra few days this year – the Labor national conference is on next week and so are we.

    So it is not goodbye, but see ya later. At least until the 16th of December.

  25. rossmcg:

    [‘Mavis

    Hopefully Pyne will be swept away by the landslide …’]

    The constituents of Sturt seem to love their Chrissy, but I see he had a 4.2% swing against him in 2016, with his buffer now 5.9%, well within Labor’s grasp if a uniform swing eventuates.

  26. @BB

    But I thought it was about the boats……?

    Since when is Encryption Bill has anything to do with people, boats?

    What I don’t get is, we been bracket creeping the national security laws since John Howard days, but you all singing the same tune, this will work, that will work, Labor won’t be blamed, Labor won’t this.

    But Labor does not have balls to stand above all that criticism, and have some honor and pride.

  27. “To be clear, are we putting our faith in our spy services who abused their powers to steal from our poverty stricken neighbour ”

    Yup, we need more oversight of those bodies. Bring in that on the basis we now need it more because of the encryption powers.

  28. “Yup, the media will revert to type, for a while, and do the “ALP Backdown” thing.”
    It’s kind of hard to complain about the media describing it as a Labor backdown given they voted against their own amendments.

  29. “we been bracket creeping the national security laws since John Howard days”

    To me, worth spending time on a full review of the whole suite. Whats worked, what hasn’t, whats actually useful and whats not. do that in the contest of BOTH security and freedoms.

    However, NO WAY is that going to happen (or should) while we have a Coalition Govt like this one, with their RWFS dominatrix wanabees o firmly grasping the PM’s sensitive bits..

    Main Game people, for now, is to get rid of the current Govt. A Shorten led ALP is the best vehicle for achieving that.

  30. PB – Most of our so-called intelligence agencies couldn’t find their arses with both hands. They already have massive intelligence gathering powers. They can slip a bug or camera into my bedroom or bathroom if they want. They can even, it seems, use a barrister as a police informant. I’m still not sure how much these new laws will add to that. They’ll probably end up with information overload.

  31. You can tell when Labor has them by the gonads, the Greens & other trolls go into a blind panic, the same as when the coalition suffer a big dip in the polls.
    Labor couldn’t have had a better 3 weeks except if Dutton & Abbott had been elected PM & deputy.

  32. A very calm, polished appearance by Shorten on “7.30” tonight. Contrast this to FauxMo’s hysterical behaviour today, and almost every day.

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