Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. @antonbruckner11

    1. they can incorrectly identify you for someone else, ASIO and AFP do not have good track record.
    2. Protests and unions will be effected as ASIO/AFP will use their new ‘powers’ against their enemies.
    3. Anyone pirated or downloaded anything illegal or gray area will be effected.
    4. any above you can – depending get deported to USA and face the might of the high court because they are in bed with all major companies.
    5. Data will not be safe – most likely stored overseas, and outsourced.

  2. @BW

    We have had massacres before, i.e. Sydney Siege, Bourke Street – Melbourne – and since John Howard.

    How did that help again ? What is this bullshit you trying to pull up on supporting of the Labor Party on this nonsense?

  3. I’m in absolute hysterics at all the Green pearl-clutching numpties who think that the end of the world as we know it is now nigh. The leadership cadre of ISIS must be in absolute hysterics if they’re reading this blog right now.

    They would be able to walk right in on a boat, have The Greens welcome them with open arms, blend into the community, converse with each other via encrypted apps as they plan their terrorist attacks and then laugh at The Greens and their deluded supporters who believe the world and the nation is full of freaking flying unicorns sailing blissfully through life, holding hands with the fairies at the bottom of the garden and singing, Kum-bloody-bay-yah!

    Anyway, carry on carrying on, and while you are utterly pointlessly doing it here tonight, and no doubt crafting an election strategy around it to appeal to all the other garden gnomes inhabiting that bucolic 10% of the garden that is your own little blissful nirvana, the rest of us and the Labor Party, will be crafting a path to a safer Australia and the next election. Whereupon, those who take the security of themselves and their family seriously, whilst at the same time appreciating the free society we have been blessed with to live in, will vote accordingly. And 90% of them won’t be voting for The Greens.

  4. antonbruckner11 says:

    Out of curiosity guys, how is this going to compromise my freedoms if I’m a law abiding citizen. Just asking!

    Oooo the old “If you have got nothing to hide you have nothing to fear”. How original.

  5. ‘Wandering off the reservation’, something what some social media posters are doing tonight has always in my mind been akin to the Australian put down ‘Kanagroos loose in the top paddock’

    A gentle way of saying the person has lost touch with reality, not any ethnic or First Nations slur.

  6. Zoidlord @ #2249 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    @antonbruckner11

    1. they can incorrectly identify you for someone else, ASIO and AFP do not have good track record.
    2. Protests and unions will be effected as ASIO/AFP will use their new ‘powers’ against their enemies.
    3. Anyone pirated or downloaded anything illegal or gray area will be effected.
    4. any above you can – depending get deported to USA and face the might of the high court because they are in bed with all major companies.
    5. Data will not be safe – most likely stored overseas, and outsourced.

    I think you’ve spent a bit too much time in China! 🙂

  7. antonbruckner11 @ #1910 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    a r – the average voter can’t even spell encryption. Good luck getting them to understand the bill. Seriously, I’m pretty politically engaged and I haven’t bothered to look into it. Should I be worried!!!

    The Colesworths delivery guys can’t figure out how to ring my door bells. One guy wanted to climb over the rubbish bins and over a locked gate to get to the back door. One daughter votes green because somebody or summat is keeping the bastards honest. The favourite daughter has only just found out who the Prime Minister is. The lady across the road is frightened of muslims/terrorists or summat and the bloke next door don’t give a rat’s ass about anything much and his dad says he (next door) is stupid.
    Et moi. I think Nath should do the decent thing and whiten Mr. Shorten’s teeth in the smiling photo at —
    nath
    Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:50 pm
    Comment #1912

    I enjoyed the cricket today – should anybody like to sue me – William who has updated the Bludger Track to almost universal meh will give you my email address.

    So — goodnight all – I’m going to watch the decoded version of Paramedics on TV. The ones shown are a step up from the ones I knew when I worked at the local hospital ED.

    😵📺💤💤💤

  8. What will happen over the next few months is this:
    (a) nothing much will happen by way of encryption breaking
    (b) a shitload of commercial consequences will bear down on the Gubbies
    (c) the elements for amendments in the next Senate sittings will become self-evident.

    All the hysterical Greens should take a deep, deep breath, and then stick to their knitting: killing off the ADF, killing off the cotton industry, killing off Olympic Dam Mine and killing off full time employment.

  9. Now Dutton speaks:

    All day Bill Shorten used national security legislation to pull a stunt in Parliament. His backdown tonight just shows that you cannot trust Labor to keep Australians safe.

    Labor fucked up bad today.

  10. OK, so there’s your explanation.

    Over the holiday period, if anything at all happened terrorwize, Labor would have been blamed, bang to rights or not.

    It is now up to Morrison to corral Whatsap, Google, and whomever overseas, stateless company – during the holiday period – to amend their encryption protocols, so as to make the Liberal Party of Australia (in all its various manifestations and factions) happy that absolutely no conceivable (or inconceivable) terrorist attack can possibly take place over the period up to February next year. Good luck getting the technoluvvies in California to even answer your emails at all, much less respond meaningfully by February. And even if you do, which particular public service department will be in attendance to read any replies?

    Labor has given them their wish. The Greens and the Shorten haters will have a field day. The Australian’s op-ed writers will crow and squwark. The Libs will claim a win.

    All good.

    No, GO TO WORK ScoMo. Roll your National Security sleeves up. Put on your best “I’ll protect you” face. GUARANTEE US there’ll be no terrorist attacks over Chrissy.

    You can’t blame Bill Shorten anymore.

  11. Dan Gulberry @ #2250 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:04 pm

    antonbruckner11 @ #2244 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    Out of curiosity guys, how is this going to compromise my freedoms if I’m a law abiding citizen. Just asking!

    Are you a union member? Do you support environmental causes? If so, the Liberals have already claimed you’re an enemy of the state and they will be monitoring you.

    They’ve tried that before and failed. Too much information to process, too few hours in the day. Too many lawyers willing to defend the ones that were targeted in the Union Movement and the Communist Party of Australia.

    Plus, at the discretion of a, hopefully, Labor Home Affairs Minister, the agencies tasked with the monitoring will be ordered to leave the Unions alone.

  12. antonbruckner11 @ #2244 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    Out of curiosity guys, how is this going to compromise my freedoms if I’m a law abiding citizen. Just asking! They’re not going to sell my data to google or anything, are they?

    If the new laws actually work, and are used to break standard encrypted communication, it could destroy internet commerce. Also, if facilities are developed which can install Trojan back doors on internet connected devices, then much the same effect could result.

    However, there will be massive practical resistance (read refusal to cooperate and strategic placement of political donations plus media campaigns) from the IT, financial and online commerce industries which will probably force a change in the law.

    In other good news, even if all the above comes to pass, the black hats will still be able to communicate in secret simply by running their own secure encryption on top of the official insecure version, so you’ll still get blown up by a terrorist.

  13. First C@t was claiming it was all a delay tactic by the ALP and now that it’s been proven not to be she’s all worried about national security. It must be so reassuring having a political party to tell you what to think about every issue on any given day. I guess it’s easier than thinking for yourself, you just download the new policy or talking points and off you go.

    In all seriousness though, C@t would have made a fucking frightening Commissar under Stalin. Can you imagine the depravity she would inflict on others for the ‘party’? I can almost smell the terror.

  14. Ah, here’s C@tmomma. Amazingly, in only a few minutes she’s pivoted to these laws being good and necessary. Her post demonstrates that she’s a far greater threat to our way of life than any terrorist, because she will willingly destroy freedoms for base political gain.

  15. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 8:06 pm

    ‘Wandering off the reservation’, something what some social media posters are doing tonight has always in my mind been akin to the Australian put down ‘Kanagroos loose in the top paddock’

    A gentle way of saying the person has lost touch with reality, not any ethnic or First Nations slur.’

    Comparing kangaroos to first nations people? Yeah. Nah. You can see where the phrase started. Reservations were de facto concentration camps. Occasionally the hunger and the systematic humiliations got the better of the first gen warriors and they left the reservation. The result was usually scattered massacres of ‘settlers’ followed by battles of extermination and a return to the reservation by the remnants.

  16. I’m personally glad that Labor changed tack on encryption. For no other reason ‘the left’ look like they are going to mass infarct over the issue.

    Shorten is right NOT to be wedged on this. I actually think we are witnessing an true watershed in the Australian political landscape: the moment in time when the Menzies settlement unravels for the conservatives totally: where they loose both ‘the forgotten people’ and the Howard battlers for ever. Where Labor stands to secure the political centre for the generation.

    Let the left and the right tear themselves apart. Labor must capitalise on this watershed no matter what: Keating always said ‘when you change the governemnt, you change the country’. That maxim rings particularly true right now. No wedge. No indulgent virtue signalling, no one piece of legislation must get in the way of Labor fulfilling its destination.

    Scream and shout away, lefties. Scream and shout away, RWFW! It’s time. For Labor!

  17. Patrick Bateman @ #2271 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:10 pm

    Ah, here’s C@tmomma. Amazingly, in only a few minutes she’s pivoted to these laws being good and necessary. Her post demonstrates that she’s a fat greater threat to our way of life than any terrorist, because she will willingly destroy freedoms for base political gain.

    That’s the biggest load of unsubstantiated garbage you have come out with for a while. Getting close to bedtime, Patrick? 🙂

  18. nath

    Invoking Stalin to criticise a commenter on this blog is akin to pissing on the graves of the 20 million people he murdered.

    Chose your slurs more carefully

  19. C@tmomma @ #2257 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:05 pm

    Whereupon, those who take the security of themselves and their family seriously, whilst at the same time appreciating the free society we have been blessed with to live in, will vote accordingly.

    Secure in the knowledge that we have been made no more secure than we were before, and one of our fundamental freedoms has been taken away.

    As is being reported in the press, it is now a “labor cave in” and a victory for the Libs. Labor will get no credit for it. There is no upside to voting against their own policies, not just once, but twice now.

  20. AE – Well said. And thank god we have got a cool-headed operator like Bill Shorten calling the shots. He stays calm and gets it right, every time. Can’t wait to see him as PM.

  21. Of course the Greens, being powerless, are never responsible for anything or accountable for anything.
    Which is a nice place to be… unless you want to make a difference.

  22. this bill is going to have an immediate detrimental effect on our tech sector and its only going to get far worse long before the alp are even close to governance

  23. sprocket, laws like this are a step, however small, towards a society like Stalinist Russia. With respect, anyone not opposing them is pissing on those graves you mention.

  24. Scream and shout away, lefties. Scream and shout away, RWFW! It’s time. For Labor!

    Kimbies in full twist mode tonight. 😆

    Though I guess they have to fight this hard to keep that 10% deluded and voting for them.

  25. I must admit that I had a bit of a chortle with all the hyper ventilating.

    Talk about a Canberra Bubble!

    Here is the thing.

    The encryption stuff has two paths.
    1. It won’t work, in which case it will be allowed by the multinational corporations that run Australia.
    2. Or it will work, in which case the multinational corporations that run Australia will get rid of it.

  26. Andrew_e

    My thoughts exactly. The Shorten Team has spent 5 years tuning policy and avoiding wedges – especially on national security. The time is not now to succumb to the shrieks of the impotent.

    I think a full review of the plethora of national security legislation over the last 5 years will be a priority for an incoming Shorten government

  27. Secure in the knowledge that we have been made no more secure than we were before, and one of our fundamental freedoms has been taken away.

    Lol. Hyperbowl, much?

  28. Watching from afar. I am saddened that Shorten folded on the encryption thing – but at the same time, as anyone who owns Apple devices know – the govt will be tied up in court for years trying to force Apple to comply. The US govt lost. The Aussie govt will also lose, being small fry compared.

  29. Guys – all this mass-tur_bat… The Liberals/Nats are in Government – they run the show. Labor will be in Government (God, Allah, Buddha, Atheist Diety) next year, Greens will be in Government never.

    Thus the Coalition is responsible for the laws of the nation – currently. Not Labor.

    Shorten has quite rightly ensured that Terrorism (Labor is weak on) is not an issue in 2019 so that Labor CAN become Government.

    This is Politics guys.

    Labor be proud of your pragmatism – only Bill Shorten and Labor can make Australia a better and fairer place to live.

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2276 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:10 pm

    I’m personally glad that Labor changed tack on encryption. For no other reason ‘the left’ look like they are going to mass infarct over the issue.

    Shorten is right NOT to be wedged on this. I actually think we are witnessing an actual watershed in the Australian political landscape: the moment in time when the Menzies settlement unravels for the conservatives totally: where they loose both ‘the forgotten people’ and the Howard battlers for ever. Where Labor stands to secure the political centre for the generation.

    Let the left and the right tear themselves apart. Labor must capitalise on this watershed no matter what: Keating always said ‘when you change the governemnt, you change the country’. That maxim rings particularly true right now. No wedge. No indulgent virtue signalling, no one piece of legislation must get in the way of Labor fulfilling its destination.

    Scream and shout away, lefties. Scream and shout away, RWFW! It’s time. For Labor!

    NEW LABOUR !

  31. It will be interesting to see how the MSM cover the story – a Labor capitulation or a common sense move. How will the electorate will view it?

    This AAP story in the Oz breaking news section does not imply Labor capitulation. In fact Labor has extracted a public commitment from Cormann to a review in the new year. (Of course LNP commitments are often worthless but by then we can expect to hear a lot of presumably negative comment from the big tech companies and other affected parties.)

    Tech companies will have to help authorities look at encrypted messages before Christmas after Labor agreed to pass controversial new laws at the last minute.

    The laws cleared the Senate on Thursday, with the opposition agreeing to drop its amendments due to national security concerns around terror threats over the holidays.

    Labor said its support was contingent on the government amending the new laws in February.

    “We’re prepared to let it go forward on that basis knowing there’s more work to be done,” Labor leader Bill Shorten told reporters on Thursday night.

    Government senate leader Mathias Cormann said the coalition would comply with Labor’s condition.

    “The government has agreed to facilitate consideration of these amendments in the new year,” Senator Cormann said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/encrypted-messaging-laws-set-to-pass/news-story/65376abd9d798aac27889a3852337c75

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *