Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Another tough day on the ScoFauxMo Express – all the questions will be ‘will you finish off Malcolm?’

    “Liberal MPs are urging Scott Morrison to take the gloves off and “publicly finish off” Malcolm Turnbull as even former allies condemned the ex-PM’s latest political interference.

    The Daily Telegraph can reveal MPs from all sides of the party are privately lashing out at Mr Turnbull with some calling for the former leader to be publicly repudiated or even expelled from the party if he continues to disrupt the Coalition government.”

    They believe his ongoing interventions are further risking the Liberals’ fortunes at both federal and state elections.

    http://outline.com/S6aqsB

  3. I think now I was a bit to timid in my 95 seat win prediction to the ALP a month ago or so. At this rate it will come close to 100. However, chickens – eggs.

  4. “We have a parliamentary democracy in Australia. It’s not a presidential system…we don’t have any plans to change our processes,” Mr Morrison said.

    An example of ScoMo’s flakiness. After the changed rule last night, he said wtte “now the voters can be sure that who they elected will stay as PM”.

    If that isn’t hinting at a presidential system…

  5. The ALP negative gearing policy is mainly meant to redress the budget structural damage the current policy creates. House prices are just one of the things it affects, and not the most important in the long run..

  6. Since Morrison declared that the election is a quasi referendum between himself and Bill Shorten he has come up with this latest move to cement that contest into place.

    I’ll give him this. He’s brave. But so far, it’s looking more like Crazy Brave. In fact, he does look like the Mark Latham of the Liberal Party and Bill Shorten, the unflappable Howard. 🙂

  7. Expect Mueller to lay out a ‘conspiracy case’ that will ‘ensnare the president’s family’: Ex-federal prosecutor

    Former federal prosecutor Peter Zeidenberg has written a column for USA Today that predicts special counsel Robert Mueller will soon lay out a “conspiracy case” regarding Russian interference in the 2016 election that will “ensnare the president’s family.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/12/03/michael-cohen-plea-deal-donald-trump-tower-moscow-russia-column/2183355002/

  9. It’s a bit rich piling on poor Malcolm Turnbull for saying his bit after being knifed – when his predecessor Tony Abbott spent every waking hour plotting and whiteanting.

    The goto paper for the PMO, the Daily ToiletPaper, has fully 7 articles on the travails of the Liberal Party – the bulk of which are excoriating Turnbull. Some ‘highlights’ of the patented Murdoch anger…

    “
    Malcolm Turnbull’s strategic uselessness was exposed today on two fronts following the former PM’s latest maladroit meddling.

    Crucially, Turnbull’s vengeful attempt to destroy Craig Kelly ahead of next year’s election was easily swept aside

    That move against Kelly was earlier blunted this morning by revelations of Turnbull’s spiteful attitude towards Morrison during phone calls to members of Turnbull’s own moderate faction.

    One of them, Matt Kean, revealed the tone of Turnbull’s language. This left Turnbull bewildered, as he subsequently explained to the ABC’s no-longer-so-friendly Fran Kelly:

    Newsflash, Mal. Conservatives haven’t forgotten your treatment of Tony Abbott. And Liberal moderates haven’t forgotten your treatment of endorsed Wentworth candidate Dave Sharma:

    When you betray so many people, eventually the knives will come your way. Turnbull is now without office, without an electorate and without influence. He could not have done a worse job of this if he’d tried.

  10. This 18-page document details all the lies told by Trump associates about dealings with Russia

    A lengthy new document compiled by Just Security’s Ryan Goodman offers a complete look at all of the lies that President Donald Trump and his associates have made about their dealings with Russian officials.

    The lies documented in the list include former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen falsely claiming that the Trump Tower Moscow project ended in January 2016; former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos lying about meeting with a Russian agent who was peddling dirt on Hillary Clinton; former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s lies to the FBI about discussions he’d had with the Russian embassy; and conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi, who lied to investigators about his attempts to contact WikiLeaks at the behest of Roger Stone.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/61682/perjury-chart-trump-associates-lies-false-statements-russia-federal-authorities/

  11. MSNBC’s Hallie Jackson predicts another bombshell after Trump’s rant: Last time he was this crazy Michael Cohen got nailed

    MSNBC news anchor Hallie Jackson said on Monday that President Trump’s morning tweetstorm reminded her that the last time the president launched as vituperative an attack, one of his associates pled guilty to federal campaign finance violations.

    “Remember the last time he did this kind of tweet storm? One day later we found out about his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s guilty plea,” Jackson said. Cohen admitted in federal court to buying the silence of two women who had had affairs with then-candidate Trump, and doing so at Trump’s direction.

    MSNBC White House correspondent Peter Alexander agreed with Jackson that Trump was likely trying to obstruct justice by sending a message to Stone and others caught up in Mueller’s probe.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/msnbcs-hallie-jackson-predicts-another-bombshell-after-trumps-rant-last-time-he-was-this-crazy-michael-cohen-got-nailed/

  14. BK – fortunately your position is a lot safer than Morrison’s!

    Thank you for the extraordinary amount of work you do on this every day. It is a fantastic resource to start the morning, and invaluable when I am interstate and just precious when overseas.

  15. Sums it all up.

    Dennis Robinson
    ‏@victa810
    10h10 hours ago

    ok.. it’s game on.. We now have to vote him out. He can change the rules within the party, but he can’t change the election.

  17. Chuckle.

    Jim Molan claimed on 2GB that he was “designed for the Senate”
    But what as, exactly? A doorstop or a novelty paperweight maybe?

  18. phoenixRED

    I also appreciate the stream of information concerning the USA. These things seem to the public to be moving slowly and not getting anywhere. The Watergate saga played out over about 18 months. Legal process is slow, and information gathering takes time, but eventually this will all come to a head. Probably before the end of 2019 – it may be casting a big shadow over the lead up to the first caucuses and primaries in February 2020.

  19. “Remember the last time he did this kind of tweet storm? One day later we found out about his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s guilty plea,” Jackson said.

    Because, as Max Boot lays out succinctly, this connection and timeline has been proven:

    Just in the past week, we have learned that conspiracy-monger Jerome Corsi notified Trump friend Roger Stone of the Russians’ theft of Hillary Clinton campaign emails long before they were released and that the next day Stone talked to Trump.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-may-have-had-his-most-successful-outing-at-g20-but-he-didn-t-accomplish-much-20181203-p50jwc.html

  21. C@t

    “…….. and Bill Shorten, the unflappable Howard”.

    ————————-

    That may be an ominous prediction of the future Shorten ALP government as a return of the Howard years. 🙁

  22. izzie @ #17 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:03 am

    Chuckle.

    Jim Molan claimed on 2GB that he was “designed for the Senate”
    But what as, exactly? A doorstop or a novelty paperweight maybe?

    The red leather they cover the seats with?

    A speed bump in the car park?

  26. Molan is demanding the same treatment from Morrison as Craig Kelly got:

    Having secured the future of conservative backbencher Craig Kelly, Mr Morrison is now under pressure to step in and spare Jim Molan from being thrown out of Parliament next year after the retired major-general was relegated to an unwinnable position on his party’s Senate ticket.

    “I believe I will see the Prime Minister later this week to discuss this issue,” Senator Molan said. “All options are available to me – except for leaving the Liberal Party.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peace-deal-sets-off-firestorm-inside-the-liberal-party-as-turnbull-warns-he-won-t-stay-silent-20181203-p50jyh.html

  28. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏@TheKouk
    11h11 hours ago

    Meanwhile 675,000 people are unemployed; 1.1 million are underemployed; wages growth remains near record lows; govt debt at record highs; household wealth has slumped $500 billion; business investment in recession: So let’s have an urgent meeting to change the rules on leadership

  32. It is possible that the Liberal National Parties will collapse as they are just a mafia. A hollowed out amoral (and immoral) gang of blatant thieves.

    The ALP will continue its five decade long, seemingly inexorable, rightwards move and replace the LNP as the main global “liberal” Party of Capital and the Security State.

    Australia needs a new left wing party or force. The current Greens Party is not suitable to fullfil this function.

    Will Get-up morph into the popular left wing political force that Australia needs?

  34. Karen Middleton
    ‏@KarenMMiddleton
    10h10 hours ago

    So the Libs have changed their voting rules to protect incumbent PMs from challenge. l guess telling voters ‘it’s time to move on’ from the events of August hasn’t been going so well. Well strike me pink.

  35. Dealing with their problem with women is clearly not as urgent to the Libs as saving Craig Kelly and pointing fairly pointless rules about the leadership in place (why an emergency meeting?)

  36. swamprat, some people were predicting just that after the Rudd-slide of 2007, with the Greens to become the main centre left party

  37. Some second hand advice for Scott..

    Michelle Obama has reportedly offered some unusual criticism of the “lean in” philosophy of feminism espoused by Facebook chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg: “That shit doesn’t work all the time.”

  38. The Morrison government is preparing itself for a final all-or-nothing tilt at voters in the April budget, dismissing Malcolm Turnbull suggestion that the government should go to the polls straight after the summer break.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s personal ambition to deliver the first surplus in a decade has effectively ruled out any chance of voters casting their judgment before May.

    However, Frydenburg is being too cute by half with the words he is putting about:

    In a bid to get the government’s message back on track, Mr Frydenberg will seek to re-focus the Coalition’s agenda on the budget ahead of delivering his second set of national accounts on Wednesday.

    Mr Morrison is also keen to be remembered for his three-years as Treasurer in returning the budget to surplus.

    “It has been 30 years since Labor delivered a surplus,” said Mr Frydenberg. “When Labor last left office, they left behind $240 billion in accumulated deficits and $210 billion in net debt for the Coalition to clean up.”

    Pray tell, Josh, what are the ‘accumulated deficits’ for the 5 years of the Coalition government? And what’s this new turn of phrase you’ve invented to make Labor’s economic position sound way worse? Why do it? Maybe because you know that Labor were repairing the Budget efficiently during their time in office, DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, which you fail to mention at all! Too bloody conveniently.

    Not to mention the old Liberal trick of confusing people with ‘net debt’ and ‘gross debt’, which under your government has ballooned. Another inconvenient truth you appear to be leaving out for your own benefit.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-rejects-malcolm-turnbull-s-election-advice-20181203-p50jvl.html

  39. zoomster

    This latest action of ScoMo seems perfectly in line with his modus operandi:

    1. Keep serving up a “brilliant idea” every day (I’m hearing, I’m listening and I’m doing”).
    2. Youse are all wrong. I’m so clever I’m going to win the election, then I’ll be PM for ever.
    3. Nothing matters except the politics. Who cares about governing for the people?

  41. Love Krugman –

    ‘Donald Trump’s administration is, it goes without saying, deeply anti-science. In fact, it is anti-objective reality..’

    ‘..And it’s worth trying to understand both how that happened and the sheer depravity involved in being a denialist at this point.

    Wait, isn’t depravity too strong a term? Aren’t people allowed to disagree with conventional wisdom, even if that wisdom is supported by overwhelming scientific consensus?

    Yes, they are – as long as their arguments are made in good faith. But there are almost no good-faith climate-change deniers. And denying science for profit, political advantage or ego satisfaction is not OK; when failure to act on the science may have terrible consequences, denial is, as I said, depraved.’

    ‘..Why would anyone go along with such things? Money is still the main answer: almost all prominent climate deniers are on the fossil-fuel take. However, ideology is also a factor: if you take environmental issues seriously, you are led to the need for government regulation of some kind, so rigid free-market ideologues don’t want to believe that environmental concerns are real (although apparently forcing consumers to subsidise coal is fine).

    Finally, I have the impression that there’s an element of tough-guy posturing involved: real men don’t use renewable energy, or something.’

    In Australia, of course, real men use Fair Dinkum Energy (TM).

    ‘…it’s depravity, on a scale that makes cancer denial seem trivial. Smoking kills people, and tobacco companies that tried to confuse the public about that reality were being evil. But climate change isn’t just killing people; it may well kill civilisation. Trying to confuse the public about that is evil on a whole different level. ‘

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/denying-climate-change-is-evil-20181128-p50j03.html

  43. Morning all. So a vote for ScumMo will be a vote for three years of ScumMo… great. And a vote for Craig Kelly… is not allowed, in case people don’t like Craig Kelly. So we have democracy when its convenient, but not too much democracy because, you know, we might not get elected.

  44. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    1h1 hour ago
    The PM says the leadership rule change applies to a leader elected at a general election, but much of the analysis says it protects him. But Scott Morrison didn’t win an election, so surely it doesn’t apply to him? #auspol

    We were saying the same thing last night.

  46. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Trump’s anti-Mueller tweet-fest an hour ago is a notch or two above the last one that preceded the Cohen plea announcement. If that’s any indication, we can expect some extra-major news soon!

    Trump had an off-the-rails Twit-fit claimin’ Mueller’s runnin’ a fraudulent investigation encouragin’ witnesses to commit perjury. Then he praised Roger Stone for not cooperatin’.

    When you’re obstructin’ justice on Twitter, obstruction is probably the least of your worries.

    Witness tamperin’ on Twitter is still witness tamperin’.

    FUN FACT: Trump calls it his “Twitter feed.” Bob Mueller calls it a “crime scene.”

  47. ‘.. the survey of more than 3500 adults showed that few considered immigration to be a top priority and most were strong supporters of a mix of cultures.

    “It’s not the no.1 issue for any group other than a small minority – overall about 7 per cent in our survey indicate it is the main issue facing Australia,” said Andrew Markus, a research professor at Monash University and the head of the annual Scanlon Foundation report.

    “And when we look at other questions to do with immigration and cultural diversity and multiculturalism, what we find is that the concern is quite specific. It’s a concern about a perceived lack of planning, it’s a concern about overcrowding, but it’s much less a concern about multiculturalism and cultural diversity, of the value of immigration or the impact on the economy.”‘

    ‘…International surveys suggest the Australian concerns about immigration are moderate.

    “We’re near the top in our acceptance of diversity and immigration but we’re near the middle or lower with regard to satisfaction with democracy,” Professor Markus said.’

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/immigration-and-crowding-concerns-rise-but-australians-still-back-multiculturalism-survey-20181203-p50js4.html

  48. Yup c@t … currently freezing my titties off (sorry William!) in the UK – today overlooking lake Windermere … from the safety of an airconed hotel room.

    Spent yesterday at the Beatles museum in Liverpool – never been so bloody cold in my life!

  49. And the hits keep coming for ScoMoFaux.

    Troy BramstonVerified account@TroyBramston
    2h2 hours ago

    This is timely: Sacked Border Force Commissioner Roman Quaedvlieg to publish “explosive memoir” with @MUPublishing in March next year, on the eve of an election #auspol

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