Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. According to the AFR, Craig Laundy was offered reindorsement for his seat and he declined. So it definitely looks like he’s heading out the door.

  2. “Australia needs a new left wing party or force. The current Greens Party is not suitable to fullfil this function.

    Will Get-up morph into the popular left wing political force that Australia needs?”

    Yes! The answer is another party. To join Clive Palmer party, Jacquie Lambie party, Glenn Ĺazarus party, Darren Hinch party and the Katter Australia party. I walked down the street and spoke to the postman he was thinking of starting new party along with my neighbours dog rusty.

  3. Lizzie

    Thanks I did not know that about the coal expansion in NSW. Certainly explains Angus Taylor’s obsession with a new power plant. Unlike Qld Labor does not hold these regional seats in NSW so I really hope they run hard on this in the 2019 election.

  4. Just as continuous tests were set, by the Right, for Turnbull when PM, the Right are now doing the same thing to Morrison. Fresh from their Kelly victory the Right are again flexing their muscle.
    Senator Molan has the support of his faction to be returned to the top position of the NSW Senate ticket relegating the incumbent Moderate down.
    Will the cowered Moderates give in to this move as well?

  5. morning all

    thanks PhoenixRed for latest on the Trump saga.

    I thought the gangland saga was behind us here in Melbourne. The Royal Commission announced by the Andrews Govt was not something I had envisaged. As they say, interesting times.

  6. Where have I seen the summary of “The Kouk” put before?

    And in regards Molan, I was conscripted after my birth date was drawn from a barrel and I completed my studies of the time

    We had a description of regular army employees

    “Regular deadshits”

    There were reasons

    Witness Molan – and Cosgrove

    And if you say why Cosgrove look at the continuing scandals in regard culture in the Military

    And he becomes GG because of his political affiliations!!

  7. With the Victorian election now all over bar the admission of reality, it looks like Labor will win Bayswater and Hawthorn. It is worth pointing out that, apart from other State issues and a certain Federal leadership aspect, virtually every seat on the rail lines Labor has upgraded is now either held by Labor or a knife edge marginal.

    I think the Skyrail/level crossing elimination program has been a huge success – good engineering well delivered. I recently saw a presentation by the team at an engineering conference where they demonstrated some of their design techniques to reduce costs and speed up construction without reducing quality. It was good.

  8. Trump has been omitted from the speakers at GHWBush’s funeral service. You can’t blame the family, Trump has had very little to say about any of them that could be considered kind or positive.

    President Trump will attend but not speak at this week’s funeral service for former President George Bush, seemingly a compromise intended to respect tradition while avoiding an awkward moment given the animosity between the current president and the Bush family.

    Instead, eulogies will be delivered by former President George W. Bush, Mr. Bush’s son, and two friends, former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney of Canada and former Senator Alan Simpson, Republican of Wyoming. Rounding out the speakers will be Jon Meacham, the Pulitzer-winning historian and author of the definitive biography of the 41st president.

  9. Will the cowered Moderates give in to this move as well?

    Trent Zimmerman appears to be more concerned with hanging onto his position than with maintaining his principles or any other Moderate’s position, so, yes.

  10. I recently saw a presentation by the team at an engineering conference where they demonstrated some of their design techniques to reduce costs and speed up construction without reducing quality. It was good.

    WA is also removing level crossings. I hope they are taking advice from the Victorians.

  11. I remain confused about the Craig Kelly preselection.
    Did Turnbull’s intervention stop the protection racket or not?

    Is there any way that Kelly can lose his seat if he remains the protected candidate against the wishes of his own branch of the Liberal party?

  12. And just to add, the reason for the summary of “the Kouk” is right wing ideology and the belief that austerity begets confidence and that confidence will trickle down to the masses

    The promoted Budget surplus is predicated on reduced expenditure and increased Company tax receipts

    Meanwhile we have the summary of “the Kouk”, which is correct

    The ASX yesterday merely retraced the previous day’s fall

  13. Socrates

    I haven’t seen the reality of the “skyrail”, but the design seemed to be an excellent method of linking communities across the old rail line divide, as well as providing recreation/bike areas.

  14. Dovey
    No, Turnbull failed in the end as the result of a direct intervention by Morrison.
    As to Kelly’s survival at an election, one would think no.
    But given the nature of Hughes, who knows.

  15. Thinking about ScumMo, he reminds me of no other political figure so much as former Queensland “hillbilly dictator” Joh Bjelke Petersen. The same combination of smiling, shouty homespun wisdom, religious bias and pork barreling, combined with a contempt for science and political process. Labor should not take him for granted, but equally, it is no recipe for good government.

    Also I really hope Labor tries to refer the Reichspotato. He isn’t even attending parliament, hiding in his beachfront mansion. Others are not in the same boat, since the SG gave specific advice on Dutton.

  16. Interesting, and now that they are in charge, the Conservatives want to make sure that Morrison is not removed as easily as Turnbull was…. Obviously they had no interest whatever in introducing this rule when Turnbull was PM….

    As far as the polls are concerned, Morrison and Gang have switched off. They will just press ahead with their Neoliberal-Conservative program, they will delay the Federal election for as long as they legally can…. and hope that Private Mainstream Media will do the brainwashing of the voters for them…

    I just can’t see how that troglodytic strategy can possibly work after the Victoria State election….

  17. From QandA:

    10h10 hours ago

    I’m not sure what this emotion is I’m feeling, listening to Linda Reynolds talking about slave labour, whilst the Liberals have PATH, Work For the Dole and the extra punitive Community Development Program and the most punitive Social Security system in living memory #Qanda

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Better late than never I suppose.

    Katharine Murphy expands on today’s Essential poll.
    Batten down the hatches! I note Morrison said that Australians elect a Prime Minister. Actually they don’t.
    A peace deal orchestrated by Morrison to save one of the government’s most controversial MPs has set off a firestorm inside the Liberal Party, as Malcolm Turnbull warns he won’t stay silent while critics try to define his legacy.
    Tony Wright tells us how Turnbull made sure the Morrison government ends the year in a car wreck.
    And the IPA laments Turnbull’s “act of woeful hypocrisy”.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that Scott Morrison’s Coalition could not be more vulnerable. The Coalition is imprisoned in unhappiness she says.
    Jennifer Wilson examines Julie Bishop’s motives behind her red shoes.–bold-let-them-wear-red-high-heeled-shoes-statement,12164
    Michelle Grattan writes that rebel right wing Liberal Craig Kelly is a paradox – a man who chronically lacks the numbers but possesses the power to force prime ministers to protect him.
    Peter Hartcher explains why Morrison is right on encryption but wrong on Muslims.
    The Australian says that regardless of the federal situation, Gladys Berejiklian’s government is on the edge because of the ­botched light rail project, the knockdown and rebuild of stadiums, and poor messaging.
    In an excellent contribution Professor Jenny Stewart wonders if religious freedom laws really necessary in modern Australia?
    Jenna Price has some ideas on how to solve the bullying problem in politics.
    And right on cue Nicole Hasham tells us that one in five Australian Border Force staff have recently been bullied or harassed at work and the same proportion has suffered discrimination, according to leaked internal documents that confirm the deeply toxic culture corroding the quasi-military agency.
    Jess Irvine tells us that Sydney property price falls are poised to eclipse losses during Australia’s last recession in the early 1990s – and it’s likely to claim that record before Christmas.
    And Elizabeth Knight says that it’s probably fair to say that Sydney house prices have now officially fallen over the cliff and Melbourne looks to be not too far behind.
    John Birmingham writes on the ridiculous and hypocritical expulsion of Patricia Karvelas from the House for having the gall to show, just like Julie Bishop her bare arms.
    David Crowe reports on a new survey about Australians’ attitude towards both immigration levels and multiculturalism.
    David Marr summarises the survey by saying that politicians may be panicking about immigration. Australians are not.
    This story will play out big time for many months to come!
    Richard Di Natale says that Rowan Dean must be sacked by Sky News and the AFR over his Sarah Hanson-Young article.
    Paul Karp writes about the (lack of) progress on the LBGT bill.
    The whole religion thing is a slow burner for governments in Australia.
    Jordan Baker reports that NSW Education Minister Rob Stokes has accused some of his federal counterparts of wilful ignorance over climate change, saying he understood why striking students were frustrated.
    And Greg Jericho explains how there is no way we will meet our Paris targets, and the Coalition couldn’t care less! As usual he extensively supports his assertions with factual data.
    Looking directly at Trump, Paul Krugman says that denying climate change is evil.
    Meanwhile Sir David Attenborough has just told leaders gathered for a UN climate summit Monday that “right now, we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years.”
    Industrial relations lawyer John Wilson looks at the consequences of the government replacing APS staff with contractors.
    Some of Australia’s biggest businesses have been slapped down by the ACCC for imposing unfair contract terms on small businesses. Bring it on!
    Mike Pezzullo has spoken out strongly about the relationship between departmental heads and ministers of the day. Richard Mulgan gives Pezzullo some advice at the end of the article.
    Meanwhile former senior public servant Paddy Gourley says that improving the public service will require more than a handful of meaningless ‘themes’. He really gets stuck onto Thodey’s inquiry.
    The Australian public service is least prepared for technological advances including the rise of artificial intelligence, the uptake of robotics and automation, and the rise of global tech giants, a survey of senior public servants has found.
    Barnaby Joyce’s decision to move the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA) to Armidale has proven to be another cluster cock-up. As minister for agriculture, Joyce presided over the live sheep trade and Murray Darling water theft scandals. More recently, in his role as drought envoy, he has been criticised for wanting to divert environmental water from the Murray Darling to agriculture, in breach of the Federal Water Act.
    Jill Abramson writes that the Mueller investigation is closing in on Trump.
    Young lawyers are pushing back against a culture of overwork in Australia’s top commercial firms, caused in part by the demands of the banking royal commission.
    The SMH editorial says that an Indigenous voice is not a threat to our constitution.
    We consume the products of slavery every day. All of us. Today’s globalised supply chains make it is almost impossible to avoid goods or services free of the fingerprints of slavery. Here’s how we avoid feeling guilty
    A summary of last night’s Q and A.
    John Elder reports that a long-running study of mothers and children has found that chemicals widely used in shampoo, deodorant, nail polish and cosmetics are linked to early onset puberty in girls, which could heighten their health risks later in life.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has Morrison rescuing Craig Kelly from the burning broad church.

    What a cracker from Matt Golding!

    Mark David’s been having some fun lately!

    Zanetti at the G20. Not particularly funny really.

    Alan Moir has Morrison returning from the G20.

    David Pope sums up the Liberal pre-selection process changes.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/83d488b773506b2b04c3fa6984959e80d45edcc0
    Johannes Leak is a chip off the old block!
    More in here.

  19. “Morrison changing Lib spill rules in the dead of night means one thing, Abbott was doing the numbers.”…. It’s possible, but for the Hard Conservatives their first objective is that of getting as many of their people preselected and then elected, whilst damaging the fortunes of as many Moderates as possible. They know that they have lost the coming Federal election, now their aim is probably that of using it to change the balance of power within the Coalition in opposition…. to then re-build and hope, as Murdoch did promise them, of making the Shorten government a one-term wonder.

  20. Trump’s rants are always a sign of guilt. Of course, the rusted on will continue to believe that he is being persecuted.

    Trump would love to walk away. Catch 22. If he stays as President, he can keep the wolves at bay. As soon as he resigns, not so much.
    Obviously no deals put to him so far have been good enough for him to jump on.


    4h4 hours ago
    More Counterchekist Retweeted Donald J. Trump
    CORRECTION: Truth is very bad for “your mission,” @realDonaldtRUmp. You’re terrified of the truth b/c, in your case, it won’t “set you free.”

    OSC knows what you did; so will the world. And all you can do about it is rage tweet… #GameOver :-)Counterchekist added,
    Donald J. Trump
    Verified account

    Bob Mueller (who is a much different man than people think) and his out of control band of Angry Democrats, don’t want the truth, they only want lies. The truth is very bad for their mission!

  21. Wouldn’t it be simply beautiful if after all this fuss and carry-on to retain his candidacy, Craig Kelly is defeated by Labor at the next election?

  22. ‘That may be an ominous prediction of the future Shorten ALP government as a return of the Howard years.’

    Well I think there are plenty around who underestimate Shorten in the same way they did Howard…..not that I regard Howard as in any way a good prime minister….but I think if Shorten gets the chance he will probably go 3 terms….and do stuff…big Labor things……

    I do hope whatever they’ve got planned for the election takes Morrison’s bullshit head on though…the mouth is going to be spewing a tsunami of crap that a lot of people will fall for….

  23. Bob Mueller (who is a much different man than people think)

    Trump would be the only Republican I’ve heard who speaks ill of Mueller – and for obvious reasons. Everyone else has nothing but praise for him.

    Whine much?

  24. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 6:45 am
    It’s a bit rich piling on poor Malcolm Turnbull for saying his bit after being knifed – when his predecessor Tony Abbott spent every waking hour plotting and whiteanting.

    It was most entertaining listening to Price and Bolt last night doing mental contortions in their desire to flay Malcolm Turnbull for his treachery to the new leader while at the same time excusing their pinup boy Abbott for doing exactly the same thing when he was knifed (after expressly saying that he wouldn’t).

    The bias of the RWNJs knows no bounds.

  25. meanwhile post election here in Victoria feels strange.

    No more hearing and seeing Matt Guy and his merry band trying to scare the wits out of the public.

    Yet, now we have an announcement of a Royal Commission due to the Gangland war saga that I for one, was happy to forget about. It was a terrible time. No one cared about these criminals killing each other off, but it was being fought out in full view of the general public.

    Another unanswered question. Despite he also being a low life, is who ordered the killing of Carl Williams in prison? And another couple of loose ends relating to the Husband and Wife who were gunned down in their home. They too, were police informers.
    Oh and also question marks over the Prison boss who went walk about and never found.

    The crooks were the lowest of low, and the police were under huge pressure to get all the rotten parties to heel.
    But using a Defence lawyer of these lowlifes as an informer, is hugely problematic.
    What were they thinking?

  26. Trump has escalated opportunities for environmental vandalism. And oil production would still be at least 10 years away! Unsurprisingly the oil and gas industries have been the biggest winners from Trump’s presidency.

    But the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — a federally protected place of austere beauty that during a recent flyover was painted white by heavy snowfall — is on the cusp of major change.

    The biggest untapped onshore trove of oil in North America is believed to lie beneath the refuge’s coastal plain along the Beaufort Sea. For more than a generation, opposition to drilling has left the refuge largely unscathed, but now the Trump administration, working with Republicans in Congress and an influential and wealthy Alaska Native corporation, is clearing the way for oil exploration along the coast.

    Decades of protections are unwinding with extraordinary speed as Republicans move to lock in drilling opportunities before the 2020 presidential election, according to interviews with over three dozen people and a review of internal government deliberations and federal documents.

    To that end, the Trump administration is on pace to finish an environmental impact assessment in half the usual time. An even shorter evaluation of the consequences of seismic testing is nearing completion. Within months, trucks weighing up to 90,000 pounds could be conducting the tests across the tundra as they try to pinpoint oil reserves.

  27. Will the cowered Moderates give in to this move as well?

    Since Howard there hasn’t been a challenge the moderates(sic) haven’t retreated from. Banks is about the first to show even a hint of spine. And that was just to get out of the abusive relationship but to keep propping up the lunatics from the cross bench.

    This is why there really could be no bottom to the Libs fall. The only ones who could reconnect them with reality don’t have it in them to fight off the freaks.

  28. Well I think there are plenty around who underestimate Shorten in the same way they did Howard…..not that I regard Howard as in any way a good prime minister….but I think if Shorten gets the chance he will probably go 3 terms….and do stuff…big Labor things……

    ‘Lucky’ Shorten will also have the benefit of extremely low voter expectations when he becomes PM. His character has been so widely trashed that people will expect very little from him. So every positive will have a magnified effect and will help him build political capital.

  29. Bob Mueller (who is a much different man than people think)

    Nah,he is still this guy.

    “No, Robert Mueller And James Comey Aren’t Heroes
    The former FBI directors have acceded to numerous wrongful abuses of power in the post-9/11 era.

    ………………..Mueller was even OK with the CIA conducting torture programs after his own agents warned against participation. Agents were simply instructed not to document such torture, and any “war crimes files” were made to disappear. Not only did “collect it all” surveillance and torture programs continue, but Mueller’s (and then Comey’s) FBI later worked to prosecute NSA and CIA whistleblowers who revealed these illegalities.

  30. lizzie @ #90 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 4:51 am

    Andrew Leigh

    Stuart Robert’s previously resigned from the front bench for breaching ministerial standards. Now ASIC is looking into whether or not he breached the Corporations Act. Is he really the best person Scott Morrison could find for Assistant Treasurer? … #auspol

    The sad answer is, “probably, yes!” 🙂

  31. Stuart Robert is Morrison’s consigliere, big ears on the ground, fellow Pentecostalist, numbers man and enforcer, so Morrison will move heaven and earth to protect him.

  32. I do hope whatever they’ve got planned for the election takes Morrison’s bullshit head on though…the mouth is going to be spewing a tsunami of crap that a lot of people will fall for….

    Labor will just quietly continue doing what they have been doing for the last 5 years. Listening to the people directly, quietly releasing policy, responding thoughtfully when asked questions by the media, and ignoring the Murdoch and RWNJ media’s vuvuzela tactics. 🙂

  33. C@t

    I really don’t think we need an Asst Treasurer who subscribes to the Hillsong theory of “having a go” to accumulate wealth.

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