Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 51
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  1. “Lucky” Shorten may not be so lucky if the incoming government does a ‘Rudd’ and arrives just in time for a global financial meltdown. Which may just happen if the US v China tariff circus gets out of hand. As always Labor would be blamed for any local ‘inconvenience’ caused by global events and by golly those journalists will,as ever, make sure that message is drilled into the public’s perception.

  2. I think it is fair to say, as per the DT that Turnbull’s intervention helped to save Kelly. The moderates may have voted against the Germans in suspension of preselections but no one he publicly intervened.

    I don’t know what Turnbull could possibly say at today’s environment speech, except back Labors’s NEG.
    And as per Grog’s figure a higher target is needed.
    A gallop more than a canter.

  4. The Hillsong “theory” is the god wants you to be rich and if you are then it shows god is pleased with you. Poor people are of course those that god is not pleased with. So those sinful types are getting their just desserts by being poor. Helping them would logically mean you are going against god’s will and that would be norty.

  5. Observer @ 8.07am

    You are of course entitled to your view of Peter Cosgrove. I would, however, make the point, as someone who has travelled many times to East Timor in the last 20 years, that up there you would be hard pressed to find an Australian who is more widely well-regarded. One of my best (Timorese) friends there named his first son after Cosgrove in recognition of the way he led INTERFET.

  6. mundo

    “….. well i am sure there are many around who underestimate Shorten in the same way they did Howard.”
    ——————-

    I am not sure in what way you mean. Do you mean Shorten is going to prove unexpectedly more leftist?

    I assume that it was Shorten’s insistence that the ALP supported the TPP without any amendments. So yes that would be very unexpected.

    Since Whitlam, Every ALP government has been generally more right wing than the one before it.

    After the right wing Rudd/Gillard Government (support for the racist NT Intervention, cutting single mother support, shovelling millions to VET spivs, US military bases, no wind back of APS decline nor of privitised public services, maintaining school “chaplains”, defeating marriage equality, etc etc) i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.

  7. Andrew Leigh’s office has just passed along the lyrics to the Christmas carol the politicians sang in the sort-of-annual-but-always-interrupted Pollies v Press Christmas carol sing-off. I am told it was performed to the tune of Angels We Have Heard on High.

    Ding dong, election day is nigh

    Your local MP’s calling

    Ding dong, how ya doing, hi

    It’s promises we’re bringing

    To Victoria, or whatever your state is.

    Victoria, or whatever your state is.

    Shorten and Morrison will vie

    That pendulum is swinging

    Hoping soon to be the guy

    With flagpins and with zingers

    In Victoria, or whatever your state is.

    Victoria, or whatever your state is.

    Journos roll a cynic’s eye

    Their hands are always wringing

    Would be nice to see them try

    To dodge all that mudslinging

    In Victoria, or whatever your state is.

    Victoria, or whatever your state is.

  9. i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.

    That’s actually a good thing.
    If Shorten pandered to the far left they’d have no electoral appeal.

  13. ““Lucky” Shorten may not be so lucky if the incoming government does a ‘Rudd’ and arrives just in time for a global financial meltdown. ”

    Yup, would perpetuate the myth that the Libs are better economic managers, but i would much rather have the ALP in charge in that circumstance than the Libs.

  14. Poroti

    “Lucky” Shorten may not be so lucky if the incoming government does a ‘Rudd’ and arrives just in time for a global financial meltdown.

    _____________________________________

    The GFC was preceded by an extraordinary bubble of greed built on air. Could it happen again in the next couple of years? Nobody knows. But the capacity for dealing with it so soon after the last one is enhanced by what we now know.

    Shorten should definitely call out the bullshit ‘surplus’ budget when it is brought down, as it will clearly be smoke and mirrors and poorly disguised at that (like the 2014 budget) because these guys don’t do subtlety. That will give Labor a better platform.

  15. swamprat

    i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.

    ______________________________________

    See. Shorten will be better placed to meet (and potentially exceed) public expectations than any PM in my lifetime!

  16. Shorten should come out and say that in the event of another GFC during a Labor government it will manage it accordingly. Just like it did before, acting on sound advice rather than acting on ideology.

  17. Strong stuff from Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, re climate denial, from this article linked above (thanks BK as always):

    “And let’s be clear: while Trump is a prime example of the depravity of climate denial, this is an issue on which his whole party went over to the dark side years ago. Republicans don’t just have bad ideas; at this point, they are, necessarily, bad people.”

    He draws the parallel between climate denial and cancer denial by Big Tobacco in earlier years.

    What he says could be pretty much applied in full to the Liberal and National Parties, to Morrison, Abbott and, through inaction, Turnbull.

  18. Cartoonist Peter Broelman tweeted “Morrison changing Lib spill rules in the dead of night means one thing, Abbott was doing the numbers.”

  20. Also in that Guardian article:
    The real worry for Australia is that operating on the principle that “there will be another one along in a minute”,
    Merkel simply couldn’t be bothered.
    Not a good look making the rounds of the international press

  21. TPOF
    He wont…but if he does no one will listen anyway.
    A bit like trying to explain the structural deficit left behind by our greatest treasurer eva (sarcasm alert for the usual suspects) ……coz, like everyone knows there was like a huge surplus that saved us during the GFC……..etc….then Rudd rooned everything debt debt deficit mess etc etc…..
    I’m afraid ScuMo’s surplus will go down a treat.

  22. TPOF

    Baring the house price falls triggering an all-out receession, the budget will be in suprlus…. At least the General Government section will be.

    The trick will be the way asset purchases are accounted for. But even there, the surplus is likely to be small. Only $5bn ish, dependig on how hard they spend up.

    Bracket creep is a powerful thing.

  23. Australian Labor
    ‏Verified account @AustralianLabor
    1m1 minute ago

    One fifth of Australian homes now have solar panels, and the Morrison government can’t even agree on an energy policy. @billshortenmp and Labor will support our renewable future and deliver lower bills for Australian households. #auspol

  25. Jennifer Ann Author @ #48 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:56 am

    Yup c@t … currently freezing my titties off (sorry William!) in the UK – today overlooking lake Windermere … from the safety of an airconed hotel room.

    Spent yesterday at the Beatles museum in Liverpool – never been so bloody cold in my life!

    Fun fact #1: Windermere isn’t a lake, it’s a mere.

    Fun fact #2: The Starbucks at the Beatles museum had probably the worst coffee in England, and there’s some very stiff competition there.

    I was in Liverpool almost exactly three years ago, and I can still feel the wind penetrating to my bones, so my sympathy is with you.

  26. What he says could be pretty much applied to the Liberal Party, to Morrison, Abbott and, through inaction, Turnbull.

    Not could, but should.

    That NY Times article about drilling for oil in Alaska shows exactly how the vested interests get their way with governments, esp conservative govts. The same thing happens here; will we ever get to the bottom of that half a billion dollar gift to the GBR Foundation for eg?

  28. I knew there was much nastiness about on the Right side of politics, but I didn’t realize the thuggery was so public, and so brazen.

    From Grattan’s column on Craig Kelly:

    Kelly is a favourite of the right wing commentariat.

    In 2016 Alan Jones said: “Let me say to Kent Johns and anyone else who’s thinking of standing for the preselection out there and to put a torpedo under this bloke. You’d better pull your head in, Kent Johns. Because I’ll tell you what: if you put your head up, there’ll be a hell of a story that’ll be told about you, Mr Johns.”

    I know I shouldn’t be surprised, but that is outrageous.

    The assumption in Liberal circles seems to be that no matter how egregious, lazy, boofheaded and outright ugly a local candidate may be, the local voters will just elect them automatically. The only hurdle to jump is in the party room, with the actual “democracy” angle taken for granted.

    So, on a brighter note, I can report that friends of mine who reside in Kelly’s electorate tell me that baseball and cricket bats are being oiled and polished by voters out Engadine way, in anticipation of beating him up at the general election.

    Let’s see if the party can pass a rule that deprives the mob of that particular pleasure.

  29. ”
    lizzie says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 6:32 am
    “We have a parliamentary democracy in Australia. It’s not a presidential system…we don’t have any plans to change our processes,” Mr Morrison said.

    An example of ScoMo’s flakiness. After the changed rule last night, he said wtte “now the voters can be sure that who they elected will stay as PM”.

    If that isn’t hinting at a presidential system…
    ”
    He will say & do as he pleases because he is PM & to get wht he wants. 🙂

  30. I don’t vote Green these days, but I agree with Swamprat on this. It doesn’t pay for Labor people to be in denial of the past. Rudd and Gillard were no Keatings (or Andrews).

    “After the right wing Rudd/Gillard Government (support for the racist NT Intervention, cutting single mother support, shovelling millions to VET spivs, US military bases, no wind back of APS decline nor of privitised public services, maintaining school “chaplains”, defeating marriage equality, etc etc) i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.”

  31. BK

    Unfortunately the MSM and their journo shills will ensure bullshit replaces reality in the memory of the electorate. So high interest rates were all Keating’s fault rather than a global phenomena and the GFC ? ‘Wasting’ money on school halls and ‘murderous’ pink batts,

  33. ”
    lizzie says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 7:41 am
    Karen Middleton
    ‏@KarenMMiddleton
    10h10 hours ago

    So the Libs have changed their voting rules to protect incumbent PMs from challenge. l guess telling voters ‘it’s time to move on’ from the events of August hasn’t been going so well. Well strike me pink.
    ”
    Lizzie, C@tmomma
    What does “Well strike me pink.” mean?

  36. PhoenixRed

    If you are about.
    The Jeffrey Epstein saga is before the courts again.
    As mentioned in past by those we followed re the Trump saga.
    There is evidence of Trump and other high profile people implicated. And it includes some Democrats.
    Is the jig up for those involved?

  37. C@tmomma @ #134 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    What does “Well strike me pink.” mean?

    Basically, ‘I’m blushing at the obviousness of that statement.’

    Stone the Flamin’ crows! Alf Stewart explains his most famous phrases …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0rhAhtX1hg

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/…/strike-me-flamin-roan-alf-stewart-explains-his-most-famous…

    Jul 20, 2016 – … for me came from an Australian vaudevillian character called Roy Rene … This fella Bill Kean used to say “strike me pink” but in moments of exasperation he’d be sick of pink so he’d say “strike me flamin’ roan” or whatever.
    Oft followed by the line

    Copy this young harry —- BOP ❗

  38. Strike me pink!
    Many explanations, but it seems to be Aussie in origin.

    [Ok. Everybody is actually way off beam! Unfortunately the saying has suffered from the all to frequent malignment resulting from political correctness. The very reason you do hear it these days is because some of us older inhabitants watched Chips Rafferty movies. The movies themselves may even have met their demise due to political correctness as “strike me pink” was not the only gender related term, or other politically incorrect term used. It is not stripe me pink [which comes from the obvious poor hearing and misuse by someone passing it on as are a lot of terms used by ‘tourists’] AND it means something along the lines of “Weeeeell strike me pink and call me a sheila” [send round the thought police, I’m ready to be incarserated]. ]

    https://forum.wordreference.com/threads/stripe-me-pink-strike-me-pink.2112327/

  39. ”
    TPOF says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 9:27 am
    Poroti

    “Lucky” Shorten may not be so lucky if the incoming government does a ‘Rudd’ and arrives just in time for a global financial meltdown.

    _____________________________________

    The GFC was preceded by an extraordinary bubble of greed built on air. Could it happen again in the next couple of years? Nobody knows.
    ”
    There is av ery good chance it could happen in next couple of years because the “financial institutions” are back to their bad old selves when it came greed & trcking the public because we do not know what hidden financial instruments & derivatives are currently used. Unfortunately the world especially Europe & USA do not have capacity to deal with it properly if it happens because they have raked up huge debts trying to solve GFC which is still on books. Hope I am really wrong about what I discussed above

  40. ”
    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 10:08 am
    What does “Well strike me pink.” mean?

    Basically, ‘I’m blushing at the obviousness of that statement.’
    ”
    OK thanks

  41. ”
    lizzie says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 10:20 am
    Strike me pink!
    Many explanations, but it seems to be Aussie in origin.

    [Ok. Everybody is actually way off beam! Unfortunately the saying has suffered from the all to frequent malignment resulting from political correctness. The very reason you do hear it these days is because some of us older inhabitants watched Chips Rafferty movies. The movies themselves may even have met their demise due to political correctness as “strike me pink” was not the only gender related term, or other politically incorrect term used. It is not stripe me pink [which comes from the obvious poor hearing and misuse by someone passing it on as are a lot of terms used by ‘tourists’] AND it means something along the lines of “Weeeeell strike me pink and call me a sheila” [send round the thought police, I’m ready to be incarserated]. ]

    https://forum.wordreference.com/threads/stripe-me-pink-strike-me-pink.2112327/
    ”
    Thanks Lizzie

  42. BK, I note this comment above:

    “John Birmingham writes on the ridiculous and hypocritical expulsion of Patricia Karvelas from the House for having the gall to show, just like Julie Bishop her bare arms.”

    I think we need a referendum to change the Constitution so that people have the right to bare arms.

  43. A “big stick” energy bill designed to give the federal government powers to break up power companies has been snapped by members of its own backbench.

    Labor is celebrating the treasurer and energy minister being “humiliated” into abandoning their push for the extraordinary divestiture powers after copping flack from coalition colleagues.

    “This ridiculous policy, this Venezuelan-style intervention, this intervention in the economy which would chill investment, has collapsed under its own weight,” Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen said in Canberra on Tuesday.

    “Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison energy policy 27.0 has been destroyed by their own party.

    “They are pathologically incapable of delivering the country an energy policy.”

  46. markjs1

    This week Truffles is giving a speech on Climate Change & the need for urgent action..

    Next week he will be giving a speech on the need for urgent action on building a Fibre to the Home National Broadband Network..

    😆

  47. I think it is worth revisiting these stories, posted here by two different posters last night …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/david-attenborough-collapse-civilisation-on-horizon-un-climate-summit

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-power-on-way-out-sooner-rather-than-later-says-aemo-38807/

    On the one hand, we have a world-renowned environmental expert pointing out we are heading for an utter catastrophe, and the UN climate experts pointing out that not only are we not on track to meet our current commitments, we must increase our current level of action fivefold if we want to do so.

    And on the other hand, we have AEMO and the usual band of Australian solar spriuikers saying WTTE “don’t worry, economic forces will take care of coal, no need to panic or take any drastic action, everything’s under control …”.

    Says it all, really 🙁

  48. Cormann: we have been thinking about this change for some time…Last week we decided…

    The more I see of this man, the less I believe him.

  50. Victoria says: Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 10:13 am

    PhoenixRed

    If you are about.
    The Jeffrey Epstein saga is before the courts again.
    As mentioned in past by those we followed re the Trump saga.
    There is evidence of Trump and other high profile people implicated. And it includes some Democrats.
    Is the jig up for those involved?

    **********************************************

    Yes Victoria – have been seeing a few reports – and like you say, quite a few *high flyers* are linked to this creep ….

    I was looking at this the other day :

    PHOTO BOMBSHELL Prince Andrew dragged back into Jeffrey Epstein paedo scandal as pic of him with ‘underage prostitute’ is listed as exhibit at new court case

    On Tuesday, a Florida courtroom will hear Epstein’s victims recall their accounts of being sexually abused

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/3466709/prince-andrew-dragged-back-into-jeffrey-epstein-paedo-scandal-as-pic-of-him-with-underage-prostitute-is-listed-as-exhibit-at-new-court-case/

    Epstein pedophile scandal: Prince Andrew at risk once more as new court case begins

    https://www.rt.com/uk/445451-jeffrey-epstein-prince-andrew/

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