Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Michael

    Then Cosgrove should become GG of East Timor, which has its own history including in regards the Timor Sea which played out in Court – eventually

    The culture of the military is on the public record also

    As is now the culture of Victoria Police – convictions and media coverage at any expense

    And, in regards “the Kouk”, the ASX is giving back yesterday’s gains, gains which only reversed the steep losses of last Friday

    So significantly underperforming Global Indices because the Australian economy underperforms the Global economy due to right wing austerity ideology

    As someone highlighted, Shorten and Labor in Government shortly will need to replicate the performance of the Hawke Labor Government when it inherited what it did from the Fraser Government courtesy of its treasurer (Howard)

    The circumstances Rudd and Labor confronted (again from Howard – that suburban solicitor name again!) will not be repeated because of the competence of Central Bankers (not so much politicians!!) and the lessons of history

  4. The Mueller investigation reminds me of the Chinese “Death by a Thousand Cuts”. It drives the victim crazy. If he’s crazy to start with, it drives him crazier.
    POTUS’s brains, such as they are , seem to be going a-twitter.

  5. Lizzie @6.32am

    Your reference to what Morrison said last night is not quite correct.

    He said that people are entitled to expect that the leader of the government they elect will remain leader for the term

  7. Good Morning

    Swamprat.

    I suspect Labor will be more left wing. Mr Shorten knows the centre. So he knows it has not shifted and that voters want a progressive government.

    Its not hard to be more left wing when the LNP since Howard has been moving the political landscape to the right and claiming its the centre.

    _______________________
    Turnbull speech on Energy policy and Climate now.

  11. Victoria says: Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 10:13 am

    PhoenixRed

    If you are about.
    The Jeffrey Epstein saga is before the courts again.

    ***********************************************

    Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender who is friends with Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, explained

    How a money manager to the super-wealthy used his “collection” of famous friends to avoid a prison sentence for molesting young girls.

    https://www.vox.com/2018/12/3/18116351/jeffrey-epstein-trump-clinton-crimes-molestation

  12. lizzie @ #64 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Socrates

    I haven’t seen the reality of the “skyrail”, but the design seemed to be an excellent method of linking communities across the old rail line divide, as well as providing recreation/bike areas.

    I’ve worked and played in Vancouver (Canada) and they have an excellent (IMO) system. I would drive up from Seattle to one of the outlying stations and catch the train into the city. It was fast, simple, and way cheaper than driving into the city and parking, somewhere.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SkyTrain_(Vancouver)

  13. Haven’t heard the expression “Strike me pink!” for donkeys’ years. I think it’s fallen into disuse, it was really from the pre-WW2 generation, my parents’ and grandparents’ generation, although I don’t recall them using it. It’s an expression of surprise or indignation. Today someone might say something like “Bloody Hell!” or “wtf?”. Or maybe type “OMG”.

  14. @ErykBagshaw tweets

    Turnbull: “In the Coalition there is a huge gulf between members on their views on energy. A significant percentage don’t believe climate change is real and we should get out of Paris…they.are prepared to blow up the government in order to get their way.” #auspol

  16. PhoenixRed

    Oh I hadn’t seen that latest reporting re Prince Andrew.
    What’s the bet Epstein had leverage over many rich and powerful. Perhaps that’s how he really made his fortune!

  17. Victoria @ 8:06
    “I thought the gangland saga was behind us here in Melbourne. The Royal Commission announced by the Andrews Govt was not something I had envisaged. As they say, interesting times”

    It looks like payback to the police for their role in the “Red Shirts” affair. “Do your job properly, and stay out of politics”

  18. Can’t keep up with this shit show

    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    10m
    Stubby fingered mobster is going down.
    Quote Tweet
    The Hill
    @thehill
    Mar-a-Lago club members reviewed confidential $10 billion VA contract before its release: report (link: http://hill.cm/nLmsQlA) hill.cm/nLmsQlA

  20. Oh dear!!!!

    Optus trips up over the #metoo movement

    However, the company was later forced to acknowledge it had in fact paid for a stripper after videos surfaced of the act in a separate area of the Optus party known as “The Velvet Room”.

    The videos showed a man dressed in a navy outfit twirling hula hoops in front of a packed audience while simultaneously stripping down to little more than a tassel covering his genitals.

    One video circulating among Optus staff showed the stripper swinging his genitals up and down before heading into the audience to sit on a man’s knee while downing champagne. He later poured what appeared to be a bottle of wine over his body.

    https://www.afr.com/news/policy/industrial-relations/optus-hired-male-stripper-for-office-christmas-party-20181202-h18mw6

  21. Gippslander

    Not sure it is payback.
    The police tried to stop it through the courts for years.
    Judgment by High Court has forced Andrews hand for a RC.

  22. Barney

    Either way its popcorn time for Labor. I thought the photo Cat posted of Rudd and Gillard laughing and eating the popcorn summed up how Labor should be feeling 🙂

  23. Victoria says: Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 10:55 am

    PhoenixRed

    Oh I hadn’t seen that latest reporting re Prince Andrew.
    What’s the bet Epstein had leverage over many rich and powerful. Perhaps that’s how he really made his fortune!

    *************************************************************

    There have been many rumours that what happened at Epsteins pad is all on tape …. as well as many links to the Trump Escort Agency and underage models so you may well be right that some sort of bribery/extortion was involved …

  25. booleanbach @ #120 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 8:35 am

    Also in that Guardian article:
    The real worry for Australia is that operating on the principle that “there will be another one along in a minute”,
    Merkel simply couldn’t be bothered.
    Not a good look making the rounds of the international press

    I don’t suppose anyone has a copy of what was actually on Merkel’s briefing? It might make telling reading.

  27. Zoidlord @ #174 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:06 am

    SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews
    7m7 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Australian cricket star Usman Khawaja’s brother is in police custody after ‘forging terror hit list’
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cricket-star-usman-khawaja-s-brother-arsalan-reportedly-arrested-over-terror-hit-list?fbclid=IwAR3dpK9BMWOWE-PICXrHRJj3erLprDokoOGyr1uWP-7fkzL1GiRBGBAvRso

    Shaun Marsh
    Mitchel Marsh
    …

  28. From BK’s links …

    David Crowe reports on a new survey about Australians’ attitude towards both immigration levels and multiculturalism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/immigration-and-crowding-concerns-rise-but-australians-still-back-multiculturalism-survey-20181203-p50js4.html

    As predicted, this is an emerging issue for the coming election …

    Australians have stepped up their concerns about immigration at the same time they have lost confidence in government, with 43 per cent of people declaring the migrant intake to be too high compared to 37 per cent one year ago.

    A major new survey on social cohesion reveals a narrow majority support for the current intake, with 35 per cent saying the numbers are “about right” and 17 per cent wanting more arrivals.

    But the Monash University study suggests the growing debate on the issue, including federal government plans to cut permanent migration, has taken opposition to the intake to the highest levels since the “big Australia” dispute of 2010.

    Concern about numbers is up 6% in just a year. No wonder the parties are responding.

    When is the ALP’s population policy due to drop?

  29. swamprat
    says:
    i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.
    ______________________________________________
    You are spot on swampy. Shorten will introduce business and income tax cuts as soon as he can as a prelude to the next election. There will be no social justice initiatives, just a focus on getting a second term. I am hoping at least that this review will restore the SPP but I’m not holding my breath.

  30. Fiscal surpluses create private sector indebtedness and financial instability.

    The only situation in which it would make sense to have a fiscal surplus would be if we had a large current account surplus whereby the rest of the world was injecting so much demand into the domestic private sector that the government needed to delete some of that demand to prevent accelerating inflation.

  32. Gippslander at 10:57 am

    Victoria @ 8:06
    “I thought the gangland saga was behind us here in Melbourne. The Royal Commission announced by the Andrews Govt was not something I had envisaged. As they say, interesting times”

    It looks like payback to the police for their role in the “Red Shirts” affair. “Do your job properly, and stay out of politics”

    According to the ABC: the government at the time, Labor, was not aware that the decision had been taken to employ the gangland lawyer as an informer.

  33. Inside Donald Trump’s One-Stop Parties: Attendees Recall Cocaine and Very Young Models

    ‘I was there to party myself. It was guys with younger girls, sex, a lot of sex, a lot of cocaine, top-shelf liquor’ but no smoking. Trump didn’t approve of cigarettes.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-donald-trumps-one-stop-parties-attendees-recall-cocaine-and-very-young-models

    The Billionaire Pedophile Who Could Bring Down Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

    Billionaire sicko Jeffrey Epstein was long thought to be ammo against the Clintons—until a lurid new lawsuit accused Trump of raping one of Epstein’s girls himself.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-billionaire-pedophile-who-could-bring-down-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton

    We All Knew About the Trafficking”-The Untold Story of Trump Model Management (Part 1)

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/6/1578544/-The-Untold-Story-of-Trump-Model-Management-A-Daily-Kos-Exclusive-Part-1

  34. Player One @ #178 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:12 am

    From BK’s links …

    David Crowe reports on a new survey about Australians’ attitude towards both immigration levels and multiculturalism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/immigration-and-crowding-concerns-rise-but-australians-still-back-multiculturalism-survey-20181203-p50js4.html

    As predicted, this is an emerging issue for the coming election …

    Australians have stepped up their concerns about immigration at the same time they have lost confidence in government, with 43 per cent of people declaring the migrant intake to be too high compared to 37 per cent one year ago.

    A major new survey on social cohesion reveals a narrow majority support for the current intake, with 35 per cent saying the numbers are “about right” and 17 per cent wanting more arrivals.

    But the Monash University study suggests the growing debate on the issue, including federal government plans to cut permanent migration, has taken opposition to the intake to the highest levels since the “big Australia” dispute of 2010.

    Concern about numbers is up 5% in just a year. No wonder the parties are responding.

    When is the ALP’s population policy due to drop?

    I think you’ll find that the concerns relate more to a lack of infrastructure development rather than opposition to immigration per se.

  35. So this morning.

    I got a reply from the Defence Force regarding my appeal process, I have to wait 3 months for a response from Canberra for the appeal response 🙁

    BY then we could have another election!

  36. Well Malcolm is now throwing barbs. All I can say is you were PM you should have said so at the time
    Now you look like a whinging coward wanting revenge.

  37. IoM
    Of course he should but he wanted to keep his job so he kept appeasing the RWNJs.He would have been rolled a lot earlier otherwise.

  39. IoM @ #186 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:22 am

    Well Malcolm is now throwing barbs. All I can say is you were PM you should have said so at the time
    Now you look like a whinging coward wanting revenge.

    Actually Malcolm’s positions and observations have been quite rational, that they can be considered barbs says much about the Government. 🙂

  42. nath @ #180 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 11:14 am

    swamprat
    says:
    i have very very low expectations of the Shorten Government.
    ______________________________________________
    You are spot on swampy. Shorten will introduce business and income tax cuts as soon as he can as a prelude to the next election. There will be no social justice initiatives, just a focus on getting a second term. I am hoping at least that this review will restore the SPP but I’m not holding my breath.

    Bullshit from the bullshit artist.

  43. Labor’s chances of sending Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to the High Court by year’s end appear to be fading after key independent MP Cathy McGowan declared she had not “even thought about” whether to support any referral motion.

    Independents = Liberal stooges.

  46. steve davis @ #193 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 10:37 am

    Labor’s chances of sending Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to the High Court by year’s end appear to be fading after key independent MP Cathy McGowan declared she had not “even thought about” whether to support any referral motion.

    Independents = Liberal stooges.

    I think Oliver Yates (Guardian) calls them ‘Independent Liberals’.

  48. Turnbull is going through a living hell right now. He knows, in his heart of hearts that he absolutely blew it as PM. Now, out off office, he’s trying to be the Prime Minister he should have been.

  50. Barney in Go Dau @ #184 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 11:18 am

    I think you’ll find that the concerns relate more to a lack of infrastructure development rather than opposition to immigration per se.

    You have to be careful here – there is very little opposition to immigration as such. There is only opposition to the current high numbers.

    Also, that particular concern (infrastructure) seems to be true in Sydney, but the concern about numbers is more widespread than that. From another article on the same report …

    About 54 per cent were concerned about the impact of immigration on overcrowding in Australian cities, 50 per cent were concerned about the impact of immigration on house prices and 48 per cent had a negative view of the way Australian governments were managing population growth.

    …

    It also varied among cities. In Sydney, 51 per cent thought it was too high, while in Melbourne only 33 per cent of respondents thought so.

    So yes, that seems to be a specific concern in Sydney (for fairly obvious reasons). But there are others.

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