Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Diogenes @ #2389 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:38 pm

    Sigil
    At five o’clock a bunch of people were saying how great Shorten was for not passing the encryption bill.
    Sixty minutes later, quite a few of the same people were cheering his decision to back the Liberal bill.
    Policy doesn’t matter if you are a sheeple.

    As a politician, you make a good doctor, Dio. 🙂

  2. It really is incredible. At 2pm this was all a brilliant ruse to get the migration amendments to a vote. At 4pm they were going to wedge the Libs with amendments. At 6pm voting it through wholesale was the only way to stop us all being murdered in the streets.

    Animal Farm comes to mind.

  3. So the UK has not been able to foil any terrorist attacks? O…K…
    Or so the numpty who wrote that having so many surveillance cameras hadn’t meant no terrorism occurred would have you believe.

  4. “The 2PP trend will let us know if it was all worth it.”

    Hmmm…i thought that the usual thing is that teh Libs poll better when parliament is NOT sitting??

  5. Patrick Bateman @ #2399 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    It really is incredible. At 2pm this was all a brilliant ruse to get the migration amendments to a vote. At 4pm they were going to wedge the Libs with amendments. At 6pm voting it through wholesale was the only way to stop us all being murdered in the streets.

    Animal Farm comes to mind.

    Emotive rhetoric, condescension and pathetic attempts at humiliation, does not a persuasive argument make.

  6. WeWantPaul @ #2400 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:42 pm

    Other than those things Labor did fantastic today. Oh wait they promised they would get the kids of Nauru legislation through if the Govt got their insanely stupid legislation through and they couldn’t do that.

    It is an achievement I wouldn’t have thought possible, but the Muppet PM, the most ridiculed useless PM Australia has ever seen, just massively outplayed the ALP. Pretty f*cking humiliating to be destroyed by and look the weak and pathetic fools to the worst Govt ever but Shorten and friends did that today.

    This is your regular reminder that Labor does NOT currently have a majority in either the HOR or the Senate.

  7. C@tmomma @ #2390 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    Sigil,
    I honestly hope you or yours never suffer the loss of a loved one to a terrorism incident, just because you want to preserve some outmoded concept of ‘freedom’.

    Fuck me. The chances of being killed in a terrorist attack are so miniscule as to be non-existent.

    Hundred of thousands of people have already died over the centuries defending the freedoms that you’re willing to sacrifice.

    If you’re so scared of terrorists, it means they’ve already beaten you.

  8. The frauds lost. They will whinge. Their whinging represents an endorsement of Labor. Let them scream. The more they scream, the more emphatic will be the message that Labor are an acceptable alternative to the Liberals. I hope the Gs go apoplectic. The more they attack Labor, the better it will go for Labor come the election.

    The Gs have no idea how much they are mistrusted by voters that identify with the Liberals. The more distance they put between themselves and Labor, the better it will go in the Labor/Liberal contest.

    Of course, the more resounding Labor’s win, the more grief the Gs will feel. Good. Let them campaign against themselves.

  9. C@tmomma, I’ll assume your comments about security and safety of loved ones are sincere. You really seem to me to have little idea of why these types of powers are so problematic, or why just hoping they’ll be used properly is not good enough. There’s a lot of mostly European history that is highly relevant to those issues. Maybe check out the movie ‘The Lives of Others’ as a good starting point.

  10. I think the Liberal trolls have just worked out that Labor were able to spin a win regardless how they voted on the encryption bill , pass or delay they were going to win.

    The Libs have lost the art of the wedge

  11. C@tmomma @ #2402 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2392 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    Anyways, I’d like one of the supporters of the police state on here to explain how terrorists would be caught if they reverted to handwritten communications which were then subsequently burnt or eaten after being memorised?

    Telephoto lenses should do the trick. 🙂

    How would they know where to point the lens? Even if they did it’s really not that hard to hide what’s written on them from any such lens.

  12. What a mob of bed wetters commenting here tonight. Bet none of them watched the Reps and Senate all day today as I did. Or at all.

    In 3 years Shorten has hardly put a step wrong, strategically. Nor has he today. FFS give him a break.

    The filibustering in the Senate all day was quite pathetic. Coalition was doing everything to prevent the Phelps bill being put to the vote, and in order of business, the encryption bill came second. Cormann then when time was all but used up, would not introduce the encryption bill unless there were no amendments.

    All this to wedge Shorten and allow Morrison to badmouth Labor re security for the next 3 months. Shorten has now blocked this.

    So the only sticks Morrison has to hit him Shorten over the head with are the old ones he’s used unsuccessfully all year.

    The way some write here, you’d think that what happened today was all about the encryption bill. It was not. That Bill was only being used as a tool , as a medium with which to set Shorten up. It failed.

  13. Dan Gulberry @ #2404 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2390 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    Sigil,
    I honestly hope you or yours never suffer the loss of a loved one to a terrorism incident, just because you want to preserve some outmoded concept of ‘freedom’.

    Fuck me. The chances of being killed in a terrorist attack are so miniscule as to be non-existent.

    Hundred of thousands of people have already died over the centuries defending the freedoms that you’re willing to sacrifice.

    If you’re so scared of terrorists, it means they’ve already beaten you.

    You really are a blithe and blinkered lackwit sometimes, DanG.

    I’m sorry, but I don’t give a damn about the hundreds of thousands of people that have died over the centuries for this or that reason, I give a damn about my family’s safety, and everyone else’s, as we walk the streets, catch public transport and go about our daily lives.

    And, no, the terrorists haven’t won if we, as a nation, take steps to prevent them from succeeding in taking our lives. Now. They have lost.

  14. Watcha, that’s all great apart from the bit where a really shitty piece of security legislation gets waved through. Or does that just not matter?

  15. Dan Gulberry @ #2409 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2402 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2392 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    Anyways, I’d like one of the supporters of the police state on here to explain how terrorists would be caught if they reverted to handwritten communications which were then subsequently burnt or eaten after being memorised?

    Telephoto lenses should do the trick. 🙂

    How would they know where to point the lens? Even if they did it’s really not that hard to hide what’s written on them from any such lens.

    You’re getting desperate now. Um, it’s their job to know how to do it.


  16. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    frednk,
    If I lived below a dam with my family, I would hope to hell that the Security Agencies would have access to the conversations of terrorism plotters that wanted to blow up that dam and kill me, my family and hundreds and thousands of others, so they couldn’t get away with it. Wouldn’t you?

    C@t
    I’d prefer them not to provide the means to make it happen. You no longer need a bomb to bring down Western Civilization. Breaking end to end communication security will do.

    Add to the list:
    A desire for the electricity grid to keep running.
    A desire for remote control weapons to remain under control of the intended controller.
    A desire for nuclear reactors not to go nuclear.

    End to end security really really matters. We now have a standard that describes the level of encryption required, the security around upgrades required, how passwords are managed and on it goes. All because remote control now happens; the internet is used and the consequences of a security breach are enormous.

    This is a far bigger issue than trusting who has access to your health records. They are playing with fire.

  17. Okay, night all.

    Bill Shorten has carefully stepped through another minefield laid for him today. And didn’t it send the usual suspects crazy!?! 😆

  18. “I give a damn about my family’s safety, and everyone else’s, as we walk the streets, catch public transport and go about our daily lives.”

    And yet you ignore the lesson of history taught a hundred times in a hundred nations that the unchecked power of the state is a vastly bigger threat to your loved ones than an idiot with a knife or a bomb ever could be.

    On another point, if we reduced the speed limit to 5kmh acrossthe nation we’d avoid thousands of deaths and serious injuries. Do you agree that we should do so, or would you prefer that we continue to have an elevated risk of your friends and family being harmed?


  19. Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    Watcha, that’s all great apart from the bit where a really shitty piece of security legislation gets waved through. Or does that just not matter?

    I don’t think it has been; I think the senate knows what is at stake, the amendments matter

  20. In other news, Emma Husar is suing Buzzfeed for defamation…

    “Labor MP Emma Husar is suing media site BuzzFeed and journalist Alice Workman for publishing what she says were slut-shaming smears that she was not given opportunity to respond to before they went viral.

    Clearly emotional, Ms Husar gave a personal explanation to Parliament as the sittings came to a close for the year. She did not say whether she would fight the Labor Party to retain endorsement to contest her western Sydney seat at the next election, amid speculation she could also quit and run as an independent.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/i-am-not-sharon-stone-i-am-not-a-thief-emma-husar-launches-defamation-action-against-buzzfeed-20181206-p50kmj.html

  21. Dan Gulberry

    As Ben Franklin said

    Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety

  22. poroti says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 10:05 pm
    Dan Gulberry

    As Ben Franklin said

    Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety
    ———————————————————————————
    And now they have ended up with Donald J Trump – enough said

  23. Diogenes: The mafia use “pizzini” which are little pieces of paper for high level communication.

    Is Trump part of the pizzini network? Looks like he was sprung consuming the evidence.

    In her forthcoming book, “Unhinged,” former White House staffer Omarosa Manigault Newman claims that she saw President Trump chewing up a piece of paper after a meeting with his then-personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. The Washington Post got its hands on an early copy of the book and was the first to report the allegation.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/omarosa-claims-she-walked-in-on-trump-eating-paper-in-oval-office

  24. Let’s take a deep breath here. The Government got its legislation through Parliament more or less intact, and avoided having adverse legislation passed against its wishes. This is not some stunning victory for the Government: it is the bare minimum level of control over the processes of Parliament we would normally expect of a Government. And that minimum level of control was so severely tested by the Opposition as to count as an optical victory for Labor.

    The Government is seriously deluded if they imagine their Houdini-like escape from legislative humiliation tonight was a turning point in their political fortunes. The Gillard Labor Government passed reams of legislation in 2010-13, before being terminated by Rudd and buried by Abbott. The Howard Coalition Government had all its own way legislatively in 2004-07, before being euthanised by Rudd in 2007. The Keating Labor Government fulfilled his promise of a “full-value Parliament” in 1993-96 before being dispatched by Howard in 1996. And the joint House/Senate sitting in 1974, which enacted the entirety of the Whitlam Labor Government’s thwarted first term agenda, didn’t save Gough when Kerr came knocking in 1975.

    So what if Morrison got a bill he wanted through Parliament tonight, and avoided having one enacted against his will this afternoon? Today, the reports were all about a shambles in Parliament and an unhinged PM screaming and pounding his chest like a gorilla on ice. The optics tonight were about Bill Shorten and Labor as adult human beings, picking their battles with the irate toddler who had earlier stomped out of his sandpit because he didn’t want the other kids to have a turn with the toy he wanted.

    I suspect Morrison’s “alpha male big stick swinging contest” strategy for dealing with Bill Shorten and Labor will prove to be a major failure. I am very reassured by how Shorten and Labor closed out the politics of this very turbulent day.

  25. C@tmomma @ #2418 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2404 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2390 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    Sigil,
    I honestly hope you or yours never suffer the loss of a loved one to a terrorism incident, just because you want to preserve some outmoded concept of ‘freedom’.

    Fuck me. The chances of being killed in a terrorist attack are so miniscule as to be non-existent.

    Hundred of thousands of people have already died over the centuries defending the freedoms that you’re willing to sacrifice.

    If you’re so scared of terrorists, it means they’ve already beaten you.

    You really are a blithe and blinkered lackwit sometimes, DanG.

    I’m sorry, but I don’t give a damn about the hundreds of thousands of people that have died over the centuries for this or that reason, I give a damn about my family’s safety, and everyone else’s, as we walk the streets, catch public transport and go about our daily lives.

    And, no, the terrorists haven’t won if we, as a nation, take steps to prevent them from succeeding in taking our lives. Now. They have lost.

    I’ll bet you have no problems at all with driving on the roads, despite there being a far greater chance of you and your family being killed on them than you’ll ever have of dying from a terrorist attack.

    Which just goes to prove you really are blithe and blinkered lackwit, who is shit scared of shadows and boogie men.

    From wikipedia:

    Terrorism is, in the broadest sense, the use of intentionally indiscriminate violence as a means to create terror among masses of people; or fear to achieve a religious or political aim.

    Yep, they’ve certainly achieved their objective with you all right.

  26. caf
    I don’t think so; they will not agree. There is too much at stake. It is at the same level as a lawyer agree to be an informant. Destruction of trust and a software company cannot afford that.

    Local development of software; there will be issues there.

  27. Briefly went:

    Shorten has got it right. Once again.

    While I don’t often comment, I’ve been reading PB for the last decade. I appreciate Briefly’s take on most things Labor, especially during the WA election, but not today. The big mistake Labor made today is that they confirmed people’s concern about Shorten, that he’s weak and too tricky by half. The Libs that are flirting with voting for Labor won’t if they think the party is weak. Today they look weak. I hope I’m wrong. I hope Shorten has made the right call but right now, I don’t think so.

  28. frednk @ #2430 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Cat it is no joking matter.

    No. I wasn’t joking, it was a figure of speech, a metaphor. It is why I am reassured that those entrusted with our national security ARE on the job:

    Meanwhile, in the UK, major telco BT Group announced it would rip out Huawei kit from the core of its existing 3G and 4G networks.

    Canada and Britain are the two remaining nations from intelligence sharing alliance “Five Eyes” not to have banned Huawei’s involvement in building the next generation of mobile technology.

    The ultra-fast mobile networks are expected to become central to critical infrastructure, such as water supply, and have attracted intense scrutiny from global governments over fears of foreign interference, security and espionage.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/double-blow-for-huawei-as-senior-executive-arrested-20181206-p50kjq.html

    Now, sorry, but I am off to bed. Insomnia is not something I suffer from.

  29. Now that ASIO etc have these powers over encryption, I hope they’re bored out of their brains when they listen to my OH having long conversations with her relatives and friends on WhatsApp.

  30. I’ve been on foot this evening in a large mall on the Northern Front. There are thousands of voters here. The one thing we can be absolutely certain of is they’re not outraged that Bill Shorten made sure a security-related law was passed today. If they notice at all, they will think “good, they’re doing their job for once…”

    The nongs who populate cyberville and heap their loathing on Labor are completely mistaken on the politics of this measure.

  31. poroti
    I could counter with the quote “The price of liberty is eternal vigilance”.
    But then you could counter quote with “The price of eternal vigilance is indifference.”

  32. C@tmomma @ #2421 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2409 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2402 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2392 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    Anyways, I’d like one of the supporters of the police state on here to explain how terrorists would be caught if they reverted to handwritten communications which were then subsequently burnt or eaten after being memorised?

    Telephoto lenses should do the trick. 🙂

    How would they know where to point the lens? Even if they did it’s really not that hard to hide what’s written on them from any such lens.

    You’re getting desperate now. Um, it’s their job to know how to do it.

    Cheeses wept, if you can’t figure out how to obscure a small handwritten note from any and all telephoto lenses one can only wonder how you manage to dress yourself each day.

  33. DanG,
    Let me assure you, I can walk and chew gum at the same time. I drive safely but I entrust my safety to experts to craft an environment conducive to it.

    Your arguments are up in the clouds, not based in reality. Maybe you need to get out into the real world more and away from social media. Just a suggestion. 🙂

  34. Dan Gulberry
    For your families safety I suggest you give up going to bed; 58 in 2011. Eating is also a risk 59 for that.
    Terrorist even if you include the metal heath issues in Melbourne is far far less.
    Definitely not worth legislation that increases the risk our utilities getting tuned off remotely.

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