Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I’ve been busy with work and life so haven’t followed politics much this week. Just uber scrolling the last handful of comments however, this tweet seems pertinent:

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    4h4 hours ago
    Teh tweeps are so cross with Labor they’re going to keep voting Greens.

    And a Perth-based colleague today said we should ditch the name social media to describe twitter, facebook etc. Because that isn’t ‘social’ media, but ‘digital’ media.

    Social media is a group of people getting together face to face and talking. Works for me.

  2. Breaking end to end communication security will do.

    The law has not done this.

    The pollie who tries to use the law to do this will get smashed by all-comers. Let’s see the libs try to inadvertently break the financial system’s secure comms services, or the power system’s, gas network’s, etc. They’ll be eaten alive.

    The amendments and/or any other changes a new Labor govt puts in place will deal with it.

    The first step is win the election.

  3. Cheeses wept, if you can’t figure out how to obscure a small handwritten note from any and all telephoto lenses one can only wonder how you manage to dress yourself each day.

    And you are an abusive knob. I wonder how you get your hand off it to type your garbage posts.

    Now, repeat after me. ‘Oh, I forgot that one person would need to pass the note to the other person so they could read it, and that’s when it would be able to be snapped. A competent technician only needs a microsecond and a multiple exposure camera.’

    Now, enough of your ridiculous scenarios, or else you’ll be bringing disappearing ink into the equation next!

    Anyway, terrorists are using encrypted apps, and THAT’S what the legislation, eventually, will sort out a solution to.

    Now, unless you are just having a wank at my expense, there is no point in replying because I am turning off my computer now.

  4. antonbruckner11 @ #2229 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    a r – the average voter can’t even spell encryption. Good luck getting them to understand the bill. Seriously, I’m pretty politically engaged and I haven’t bothered to look into it. Should I be worried!!!

    I stand by my original numbers:

    10% chance businesses actually comply and build-in ways to bypass their encryption, ushering in a golden age of mass surveillance.
    30% chances businesses pull their products from the Australian market en-masse to avoid having to comply with this nonsense legislation.
    60% chance nothing happens as the government is unwilling to risk the 30% scenario chasing the 10% scenario and thus leave the new laws basically ignored.

    So you should be no less than 10% worried. 🙂

    C@tmomma @ #2326 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    The bewildering thing, to my eyes is, that so many of these crusaders for ‘fundamental freedoms’, live in the big cities of this country. These are the places targeted by brainwashed terrorists.

    You can’t be serious. How often have these cities been targeted, successfully, by ‘brainwashed terrorists’ prior to the introduction of the encryption laws? How many casualties have there been, in Australia? This year? Over all the time Australia has been a thing?

    Now how many people have died driving on our roads? How many women will be killed or injured by their partner this year? Hell, how many Australians have been killed or maimed by sharks in the past 6 months?

    I don’t even have to look these things up to know which numbers will be bigger than which other numbers.

    Australia does not have a terrorism problem*.

    * Well, except for that political opportunists like to raise the specter of “terrorists” to scare up some votes. And that they get away with it.

  5. frednk:

    I don’t think so; they will not agree. There is too much at stake. It is at the same level as a lawyer agree to be an informant. Destruction of trust and a software company cannot afford that.

    Precisely. But they’re not beyond the reach of the laws, so long as they have a presence here – which all three currently do, to a considerable degree. I will be interested to see how they respond.

  6. I’d really like to see some way of effectively dealing with the crooks who use email, text messages and phone calls to try and con you out of your money.

    The volume of this stuff seems to be increasing.

  7. Dan Gulberry
    For your families safety I suggest you give up going to bed; 58 in 2011. Eating is also a risk 59 for that.
    Terrorist even if you include the metal heath issues in Melbourne is far far less.
    Definitely not worth legislation that increases the risk our utilities getting tuned off remotely.

  8. I like your style, a r, but I reckon your 10% is about 1% and 30% is about 10%.

    But then again, these numpties do know how to properly fuck things up…

  9. C@tmomma @ #2449 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:21 pm

    Let me assure you, I can walk and chew gum at the same time. I drive safely but I entrust my safety to experts to craft an environment conducive to it.

    None of which will prevent a dickhead with a lead foot or a belly full of booze cleaning you up. It happens every day. And there is far more chance of that happening than anything Usama bin Fuckwit can do to you.

  10. Security and dependable computing more generally is understood in terms of $$$ and the real resources those $$$ affect. And the effects are asymmetric thus heavily biased in favour of “the little guy”

    The costs are significant, and even Nicholas with his unbridled passion for the Commonwealth government to print $AUS by spending it into existence will be at a loss because many of the real resources that would need to be affected are not available for purchase in Australia (or in $AUS) and the special position of the Commonwealth is thus removed.

    Odd to see that Wilson-Sonsini once hired an intemperate person such as RIANA PFEFFERKORN appears to be. She’s not a “cryptography expert” in any sense and can’t follow the money, which wold be a problem for a lawyer working in VC, one would have thought

    Now there was a “terrorist” using encrypted messages whilst working to undermine the government a while back. His name, “Trumble” or something like that. I wonder what he thinks about it – perhaps someone should ask him?

    Good Night, And Good Luck

  11. Dan Gulberry @ #2409 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2390 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    I honestly hope you or yours never suffer the loss of a loved one to a terrorism incident, just because you want to preserve some outmoded concept of ‘freedom’.

    Fuck me. The chances of being killed in a terrorist attack are so miniscule as to be non-existent.

    Hundred of thousands of people have already died over the centuries defending the freedoms that you’re willing to sacrifice.

    If you’re so scared of terrorists, it means they’ve already beaten you.

    Ditto frm me, you are an idiot Catmomma.

  12. Gee, it’s been awhile – watching the posts over the last few hours, that I have seen/heard so much hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth over events in Parliament today.
    I thought Labor, a few days ago, said they “agreed in principle” with the legislation to do with letting our security mob get access to the data behind the data?
    Just watched local 7 pm ABC TV news I did not get any sense from Jennet that today had been a bad, bad day for Labor, or a good, good day for the LNP. In fact, the item about today’s sitting was about 4th cab off the rank and was short and to the point. Jennet’s comments were to the effect that whatever Morrison thought he had kind of achieved today, it was a fairly shallow end of the term for him. Comment being, it will all be waiting for him come February.
    I would venture that most of Joe Public/Electorate have little or no idea what the fuss is about and care even less.
    Whether this is a good or bad thing can be argued but the general impression left is that the LNP are in a state of chaos………………….not Labor.

  13. Alan Shore says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 10:17 pm
    Briefly went:

    Shorten has got it right. Once again.
    While I don’t often comment, I’ve been reading PB for the last decade. I appreciate Briefly’s take on most things Labor, especially during the WA election, but not today.

    Alan, the faux Left will arc up. They can’t help themselves. A few days ago Penny Wong was reported as saying there had been a bi-partisan agreement on the Bill, but that Morrison had “blown it up”. Labor want the substance of the measure. They wanted to amend it, but that was not going to happen. Given today the Parliament adjourns, Labor have to decide whether to pass it or not. The Liberals have agreed to a review in the New Year and have been deprived of a stick with which to assail Labor. It’s not the worst outcome even if it’s not the preferred one.

    The worst outcome would have been to affiliate with the Gs, whom no-one rational trusts and who only intend to harm Labor whenever possible.

    Labor did not shoot itself in the foot as the Libersls had hoped. Good result. It will be forgotten by voters come Monday….but not by Penny Wong….not st all. Cormann made a promise. She will see that he keeps it.

  14. Today had nothing to do with legislation. It was just strategic politics.

    Morrison tried to (1) avoid a vote on the Phelps bill in the House and (b) use manipulation of the encryption bill to wedge Shorten with bad publicity about “national security” for the next 3 months, sans any blowback in the (non-sitting) parliament. Just as he did in his loud presser this morning.

    It was not a weak Shorten backing down. It was a strategic Shorten playing the cards before him.

    Bed wetters should note two things.

    First, Shorten countered Morrison and blocked his move.

    Second, the JPISC (6 Coalition members, 5 Labor members) have spent months consulting with the tech industry, civil rights people, security agencies, and others, and came up with a batch of unanimous amendments. They support the legislation if it includes those amendments. So…….. the 11 most informed representatives in the nation who have considered all the ifs and buts, support the legislation if amended.

    That’s good enough for me. It’s democracy.

  15. Reviewing the events in Parliament today, and the consequence of Scotty leading a divided party who have lost control of the numbers in both houses – which is chaos, only overcome by sneaky tactics – one has to ask, how long can this go on for?

    A March election has to be looming

  16. Watcha says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 10:39 pm
    Today had nothing to do with legislation. It was just strategic politics.
    SO doesn’t that just sum up Aus politics, it’s never really about anything except the Lib Lab game playing.
    Sure terrorism, economy, jobs, even environment get trotted out as deep cover for actually not really giving a shit.
    Though the real game in town is the great leaders of Lib and Lab, jousting at the fence
    Who needs a planet to live on

  17. So how long has thing been hanging around for, more than a week, more than a month, more than a year?

    But today comrades, we needed this!

    Thanks for the most absolutely wonderful and more powerful sincere hope that I don’t have a family member killed by terrorism.

    What rot.

  18. sprocket….the omens look very menacing for the Government. They survived this week purely by an accident of the calendar. They will not be so lucky in the New Year. An election cannot be far off….apart from anything, any more weeks like this one and Morrison will be vulnerable to a spill.

  19. Today’s Mumble. Spot on as usual.

    Immigration and its accessory issues have always been politically sensitive. A technocratic consensus tends to suppress public discussion, which is what makes it so alluring to political insurgents. No doubt it works well in Liberal focus groups. But practitioners of qualitative research are also susceptible to political mythology, and as last month’s Victorian election suggested, ramping up the rhetoric about minority groups isn’t necessarily all it’s cracked up to be for a major party. (It’s largely forgotten that Howard also attempted, twice, to bring Sudanese refugees into his case for re-election in 2007.)

    The ramifications of the obsession with opposing climate change action is more clear-cut: it’s just a dead end for the Coalition. They tie themselves in knots and appear, to the majority of voters, ridiculous.

  20. “A March election has to be looming”

    Quite likely in my view. If this were to be the case, the 45th Federal Parliament will not sit again.

  21. Hollow vicrory at the end of the day for Morrison. Shorten is playing a cautious long game. The sky wont fall in with this encryption leg. Reminds me of Dan Andrews in 2014. Underestimated and ignored but watch him when he gets his hands on the wheel.

  22. Many people don’t realize how bad this anti-encryption security is;

    Its an absolute BBQ stopper for anyone with a clue about tech, there have been hundreds of international organizations, global IT companies and even government department heads that have spoken out about how stupid it is, and Labor just gave up for pure political reasons.

    e.g. reactions to this ABC story on facebook, 1187 angry, 341 like, 59 shocked, its very rare to see such a high anger count…

    Labor are more concerned about looking weak than looking stupid, it is a measure of how broken democracy has become that good policy, and smart decisions arent enough.

    This legislation is stupid because the “bad guys” where only using such apps because they couldnt be traced, its why they dont use telephones, so why would they keep using them, why wouldnt they switch to a decentralised communication system, or an app developed in another country.

    It puts everyone else at risk, because it is deliberatly weakening security, call it a back, side door, whatever, it can only weaken security for users.

    Its bad for the software industry because suddenly the reputation of every tech company that operates in Australia has joined the ranks of Huawei in terms of trustworthiness, they have to operate under an world leading Authoritarian regime.

    There is early talk of Amazon considering taking legal action against the Government, and speculation Apple could withdraw from the Australian market.

    There has been absolutely no debate about wether police really need this power, they just said they wanted it, and the get it, like they always do, how does it end anywhere other than Totalitarianism ?

    Ignorant commentators talking about in the same sentence as national security and terrorism is absolutely shocking, you bring great shame to yourself.

  23. Vogon Poet….yup….certain defeat stares them in the face. A March election has to be highly likely.

    Of course, this means there is really no time left for them to reset their policies. They will have to fight with what they have now…which is almost worse than nothing.

  24. I maintain, for the average Joe Blow voter, concerns about health, education, stagnant wages, rising electricity costs, and the fracturing of full time employment (and many other closer to home issues) far outweigh any current concerns they might have about who may get hold of what data to peruse in the tracking down of terrorist acts.
    This does not mean to say this is not important in the great march of human events, but a little like going through security at the airport, such activities are seen as the price we all pay to live in a so-called free society.
    I have my doubts whether what transpired in parliament today has been noted by many, understood by many or fretted over by many.
    As someone has just mentioned, the caravan will have moved on and by Monday, the last sitting day of parliament today will be lost in the hazy past.
    The LNP still look weak, divided and leaderless……..though it is probably true to guess that without parliament sitting, they will start to gain the appearance of being able to cope.

  25. April won’t be a mini-budget, it’s scheduled to be The Budget.
    But like others I doubt the parliament will sit again before then.
    Morrison wouldn’t want another fortnight in February like he has just had.

  26. But if they don’t bring down a surplus budget in April (mini, real mccoy or otherwise) , how do they justify the election spend-a-thon that will ensue?

  27. The single outstanding feature of today’s ranting by the faux Left has been the fist-shaking at Labor. The Liberals are immune, it seems. Labor are always to blame.

    The thing is….Labor are the standard by which others will be judged…this is implicit in the rage.

  28. I am fast getting to the stage of paying no regard to this Forum apart from headline updates to polling

    Firstly, the views I hold on matters banking and matters economic have been consistently described

    My views on this dysfunctional government have also been consistently described, together with reasons

    I have also offered that I regarded Bob Brown as a hard working and committed advocate who enhanced the Senate

    So I once had regard for the Greens courtesy of my view of Brown, whilst not agreeing with him necessarily but that is life

    From the contributions to this Forum by those who in my view have highjacked the legacy of Brown I have my opinion of those contributors who really need to get a life including because their obsessions are not only dangerous to themselves but boring to the extreme given their repetition

    So repetitively boring and mind numbing that I bid you farewell

    This Forum has become a waste of space

  29. So maybe Scott’s PMship will last about 200 days, making him 25/30 in terms of time in Office, or 25/27 if we exclude caretakers. About one third of Billy McMahon’s time in office.

  30. Bug1 I was speaking to a young guy today who designs encryption software. He was greatly distressed and devastated regarding the impossibility of adding a ‘back door’ without destroying your product, and signposting to hackers how to enter the system. He advises that to people who speak ‘computer’ this is kindergarten cops level stupid legislation, which is also potentially dangerous both to security and to the viability of any Australian wanting have a business in the encryption space.

  31. Tricot @ #2488 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 8:08 pm

    I maintain, for the average Joe Blow voter, concerns about health, education, stagnant wages, rising electricity costs, and the fracturing of full time employment (and many other closer to home issues) far outweigh any current concerns they might have about who may get hold of what data to peruse in the tracking down of terrorist acts.

    I’ve no doubt that that will remain the case right up until there is an actual terrorist attack, or some Russian hacker uses these so called “back doors” and gains access to people’s bank accounts and cleans them out. I believe that the latter is far more likely than the former.

    Then people will start to notice and ask serious questions about why it was so necessary to have these “back doors” installed.

  32. Talking about ministers misusing information, a disgraceful act by our new SA Liberal Environment minister

    “Senior public servants were uncomfortable with a request from Environment Minister David Speirs’ office to identify former Labor staffers in his department, freedom of information documents reveal.

    Text messages between Environment Department staff show they were surprised and “a bit anxious” about the request to compile a list of political staffers by Mr Speirs’ chief of staff Cullen Bailey.”

  33. Big1

    Noone with a deep understand of “tech” uses FaceBook (unless forced to do so by employment etc.) . For example most CS academics looked at it when it came out and thought “nah, don’t think so…” (a few did study the graphs…). It follows the using anything to do with a FaceBook page as a gauge of the views of “people who understand tech” is doomed to failure. Perhaps you mean “people who think they understand tech”? A rather different cohort.

    The legislation is undoubtedly stupid. It always is to some degree and the process that has led to it in this case has been deploy flawed, so one would expect the result to be rather more deploy flawed than is usqlly the case. That’s irrelevant however, since in practice it’s what’s possible and what happens in the (inevitable) gaps that determines the matter. It turns out that people with a deep understanding of tech are quite good at dealing with that kind of uncertainty and ambiguity.

  34. Just bullshit as usual & the MSM are too dumb to pick it up

    Except you need the glitz and drama of a budget announcement in order to announce a budget that is actually a pre-election budget. If all you’re going to do is throw a press conference and bullshit your way through, it could be any other day of the week in the year of federal politics. Nobody will pay attention .

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