Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Patrick Bateman @ #1943 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:54 pm

    “Not true. Their biggest achievement was to vote down (with the Lib/Nats/climate change denialists) the first attempt to address the problem, the CPRS.”

    Ah yes. That would be the legislation that Labor refused to discuss with the Greens because the ALP had so cleverly done a deal with the totally trustworthy Liberals? Obviously all the Greens’ fault that the Liberals totally predictably betrayed Labor.

    So, The Greens don’t read legislation when it comes before the parliament? O…K…

  2. Well, C@tmomma, I’ll refrain from name calling but you strike me as someone who will justify and applaud pretty much anything Labor does.

    So far today they’ve voted through incredibly dangerous national security legislation, failed to get important migration amendments through the senate quickly enough, and are now lining up to have another go at the dangerous national security stuff.


  3. oerwar says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 4:44 pm
    haha
    Di Natale is outraged, I tell ya.
    Outraged.
    Di Natale has achieved nothing at all in his entire miserable political career.
    Nothing.
    He and his Party have sucked up taxpayer dollars by the tens of millions.
    And they have achieved nothing in 30 years.
    Nothing.

    BW
    RDN may or may not have achieved nothing. His party certainly brought Environmental issues to centre stage.

  4. Labor and Liberal have pulled a massive swifty today. Nauru unchanged – Encryption bills waved through.

    Astonishing bastardry.

    RDN is awake to it. Storer and the other crossbenchers will soon be awake to it as well.

  5. Patrick Bateman @ #1950 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:57 pm

    Well, C@tmomma, I’ll refrain from name calling but you strike me as someone who will justify and applaud pretty much anything Labor does.

    So far today they’ve voted through incredibly dangerous national security legislation, failed to get important migration amendments through the senate quickly enough, and are now lining up to have another go at the dangerous national security stuff.

    Yep, it’s that simple.

    🙄

  6. Ah yes. That would be the legislation that Labor refused to discuss with the Greens because the ALP had so cleverly done a deal with the totally trustworthy Liberals? Obviously all the Greens’ fault that the Liberals totally predictably betrayed Labor.

    Sorry, I don’t quite follow your reasoning. They didn’t vote for the legislation because Labor didn’t talk to them? Surely something was better than nothing? No matter, it’s all history now.

  7. PB – Actually, she didn’t say anything defamatory. She was merely defending herself. What else is she supposed to do in her valedictory speech.


  8. Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 4:57 pm
    Well, C@tmomma, I’ll refrain from name calling but you strike me as someone who will justify and applaud pretty much anything Labor does.

    Patrick, C@tmomma confirmed she is a ALP partisan. Now, can some body clarifywhat is the status of
    1. Encryption bill
    2. Refugee medical treatment bill

  9. Someone today (can’t find it) posted something talking about getting Australia’s total renewables electricity production up to a significant proportion of the electricity production in Australia.

    https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/australian_energy_update_2018.pdf

    this graph shows the change with time, up to 2017. I understand renewables are expected to increase by 18% or similar in 2018.

    Just putting up the data, but it looks like renewables are about 15% at the moment, and if nothing else changes will be circa 17% or a little more of the mix this year.

    The next graph is from:

    https://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903

    and is about 3 gW at the moment.

    According to that graph, it will be 8.5 gW by 2020.

    At the moment, wikipedia says that 16% of australia’s electricity comes from renewables, with 63% from brown and black coal.

    Combining the two, a simplistic back of the envelope calculation, and if all those figures are comparable, suggests that if electricity use does not change in the meantime, that’s near three times (3 to 8.5 gW) the percentage now, or 45%.

    Taking a trend out the window, maybe, and certainly based on iffy data. Fire away. I can duck and weave with the best of them.

    Glad to hear a different view with different more reliable sources.

    #electricitywarsonPB

  10. “So, The Greens don’t read legislation when it comes before the parliament? O…K…”

    Labor quite clearly froze the Greens out of any negotiations with a view to not doing themselves electoral harm by being seen to be in an informal coalition with them. They preferred to deal with the dishonest, corrupt, far right wing Tories. That this plan fell through is hardly the fault of the Greens.

    Funnily enough, the Greens quite cogent concerns with the CPRS are still online:

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-and-emissions-trading-%E2%80%93-your-questions-answered#cantsupportCPRS

    Those concerns have only been proven right – e.g., a scheme by which carbon output continues to rise until the mid-2030s is manifestly inadequate, as everyone (except the Tories) now acknowledges.

  11. The medical transfer bill has passed the Senate 31-28.

    A bit of an anticlimax after a three-hour filibuster, but the heat had gone out of it after the house adjourned.

    We’re now onto the encryption bill.

  12. Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 12 minutes ago

    Looks like everyone all got a bit too smart by half today. Glad I missed it
    2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes

    Paul Montgomery @m0nty
    Replying to @Pollytics

    Yeah, it looks like all those chipping Labor over the #aabill might have gone off half-cocked. Labor playing a long game and scoring points at will on a government that was always too incompetent to pass anything AFAICT. Bit like Pujara’s batting today. 🙂

  13. dtt….it’s self-evidently false. The bludger in question is in any case a notorious liar.

    If you can’t work it out, that’s your problem. The bludgers are not required to provide explanations of the obvious to those such as you, who are impervious to persuasion.

  14. I’m hearing a lot of conflicting information and misinformation here.

    1 Has the encryption legislation passed through both houses?

    2 Has the refugee medical treatment legislation passed through both houses?

    If the answer is no, will they have to wait until next year to be considered again?

  15. Surely Morrison has to call an election between now and the resumption of Parliament next year.
    They got away with murder today, but a circus in Canberra always reflects badly on a Government, and when they come back it will be on again.
    There are no more tricks in the book….

  16. So, the encryption bill didn’t pass ?
    Patrick will now be happy a mad Australian president isn’t going to set the secret police on to him and lock him up for no reason now.

  17. AB11, I have spoken to a Green who said voting against an ETS was justifiable because the Greens were not consulted about the legislation beforehand. Not sure if true (the bit about the consultation), but it shows they are happy to fry the planet in a ‘fit of pique’. Couldn’t believe it.

  18. C@tmomma, your go-to defence of Labor today seems to be that it’s all a brilliant scheme that we can’t fully comprehend.

    They’ve done very well up until the point where the clock ran out. There’s no justification for then pushing on with the encryption bill. Although it’s not totally clear what is actually happening with that. If Labor is moving loads of amendments to stop it moving forward, then I’ll be relatively happy with their day.

  19. I’m not sure that there would be available an appeal against Archbishop Wilson successful appeal.

    The circumstances in which A prosecutor can challenge an acquittal ohr the setting aside of a conviction are pretty rare.

    I doubt that they would include an appeal on a question of fact and it appears that Judge Ellis determined, as a matter of fact, that the requisite memory attributed to Archbishop Wilson was not made out.

  20. ‘Ven
    BW
    RDN may or may not have achieved nothing. His party certainly brought Environmental issues to centre stage.’
    Nothing. De nada. Zero. Zilch.
    For 30 years the Reds have used the Greens as a Front Organization. The Reds have succeeded in locking up the Green vote where it has had zero policy impact and zero program impact.

  21. From what I can tell from the Guardian Live Blog, “Parliament” (which I understand to be both the House and the Senate) is adjourned until February, with the Asylum Seeker and Encryption Legislation held over until then.

  22. Reading the posts here is a big disconcerting. A lot of abuse and hysteria from the Greens.

    First, there is nothing more Labor could have done to get the refugees bill to the reps than it did. A fact that has gone entirely over the heads and what little brains the same/same clowns here have (an easy target to miss).

    Now Labor could support the encryption bill agreed in the House (which it agreed in order to get it into the Senate) and validate Scummo’s brinkmanship (because the bill then does not need to go back to the House). But if the Senate passes even one amendment, the bill cannot proceed this year because the House has adjourned. I would be very, very surprised if Labor gives Scummo victory after the games he has played.

    But I’m waiting to see. For the resident same/same merchants here jumping to the same/same conclusion is part of their shtick. It’s what they do, venting moral outrage (and massive moral signalling overload) before the facts have a chance of asserting themselves. At this point in time it seems that the encryption legislation, that the Government declared was so desperately important it had to be passed pronto, can wait till Parliament sits again, along with the refugee legislation.

  23. “Patrick will now be happy a mad Australian president isn’t going to set the secret police on to him and lock him up for no reason now.”

    You really must be profoundly ignorant of history. You, like many Australians, seem to have this cozy idea that because we’re a fairly open, democratic society now this condition will continue indefinitely.

    It’s perfectly philosophically sound to take the view that laws should not be enacted which result in the only difference between liberal democracy and quasi-police state being the whims of those in power. There are plenty of examples of ‘democratic’ nations slowly succumbing to undemocratic realities in this way.

    I sometimes wonder if the fact that Australia has never had a civil war or been occupied explains the profound complacency of its populace about human rights issues.

  24. William Bowe @ #1976 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    I’ve just updated BludgerTrack, not that you’d notice.

    That may be true, but the effect is because this is an information rich site. You put up huge amounts of relevant and well calculated data and comments, so people not noticing comes with the territory.

    You’ve given yourself a labour of love, but it is appreciated.

  25. Amy’s blog: “Parliament has adjourned until February 2019 It is over.”

    So Morrison sacrificed the encryption legislation so the LNP wouldn’t suffer defeat on the medical evacuation legislation.

    Where are all the RWNJs saying Morrison has now allowed terrorists to overrun Australia at will?

  26. Steve777 @ #1979 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:08 pm

    From what I can tell frothe Guardian Live Blog, “Parliament” (which I understand to be the House and the Senate) are both adjourned until February, with the Asylum Seeker and Encryption Legislation held over until then.

    They’ve also added:

    “Labor will continue to move its amendments in the Senate on the encryption bill, despite the House having adjourned, meaning it can not be passed.”

    Good (enough) news, if so.

  27. J

    ‘Yeah, it looks like all those chipping Labor over the #aabill might have gone off half-cocked. Labor playing a long game and scoring points at will on a government that was always too incompetent to pass anything AFAICT. ‘
    But,but,but… Di Natale is OUTRAGED NOW!
    For nothing?
    So, now he will just have to UNOUTRAGE himself.
    And apologize to Ms Wong whom he harrassed on the floor of the Senate.

  28. Kerryn Phelps talking to Sky:

    “I am sad that we didn’t get this through today, because I think we would have had the numbers…but we will be back in February, so there is light at the end of the tunnel.”

  29. Patrick Bateman @ #1972 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    C@tmomma, your go-to defence of Labor today seems to be that it’s all a brilliant scheme that we can’t fully comprehend.

    They’ve done very well up until the point where the clock ran out. There’s no justification for then pushing on with the encryption bill. Although it’s not totally clear what is actually happening with that. If Labor is moving loads of amendments to stop it moving forward, then I’ll be relatively happy with their day.

    No, my point is that, to an unbiased observer, Save the Children, Labor, and The Greens and Cross Benchers who voted with them, did all they possibly could to get the refugee Bill through. That the Coalition, and Senators who voted with them, put spokes in the wheels all along the way, is not Labor’s fault.

    To which was added Pyne’s manoueveur to suspend the House before the refugee Bill could be sent down to it.

    To deny any of this is simply to be a partisan.

  30. You know Di Natale can’t actually hear you, right Boer?

    Maybe go back to droning on about cotton farms or how the extreme Greens are going to ban meat for a while.

  31. ar

    I am hoping that the election comes before the encryption bill does. Given that the AS legislation is first I have real hope on this 🙂

    And YES credit to Labor for the putting the AS legislation first keeping the LNP on the horns of that dilemma


  32. Labor will continue to move its amendments in the Senate on the encryption bill, despite the House having adjourned, meaning it can not be passed.

    And that is what I expected. Difficult to see how parliament can now sit before the election and thus how this legislation which is a risk to the nation can get passed before the election.

    If you want to stop it, a nothing vote for the greens; or a vote for Labor.

  33. We have a Coalition Govt that has lost control of Parliament , now blaming Labor for incomplete legislation coming in on the last days of sitting and not being passed.
    What did Abbott do as LOTO at every opportunity. No doubt what goes around comes around.
    We haven’t had these data laws in place for the last five years, now we need them passed today. Much haste less speed.
    If only those events in August didn’t happen. This was not supposed to be the outcome. And there is still the Dutton to the High Court to come.

  34. Good to hear Labor is moving to amend the encryption nonsense.

    That makes today, overall, a pretty good day for them, although like others I still have real concerns about the encryption bill moving forward at all and wish Labor would have the courage to just take it head on.

    However, we now go to the break with a dysfunctional government who by its own decision has not passed this ‘urgent’ legislation, and facing an immediate loss on the Nauru issue when parliament resumes.

    Incidentally – aren’t we in territory where the GG should be asking Morrison to test his numbers in the House?

  35. Patrick Bateman
    Those concerns have only been proven right – e.g., a scheme by which carbon output continues to rise until the mid-2030s is manifestly inadequate, as everyone (except the Tories) now acknowledges.

    Sure it was shit legislation, but getting a bipartisan consensus on emissions reduction, and bedding it down, would have been a true achievement.

    Furthermore the CPRS would have been far better than what we’ve had for the last five years, which is nothing.

    The Greens letting the perfect be the enemy of the good is exactly why I stopped voting for them. And ten years later they’re still operating from the same playbook.

    As a former Greens voter, I truly think the country, and more importantly, the environment, would be better off if they had never existed as party.

  36. One good thing about Migration Bill not going back to the House,

    what a great way for the Government to start a new year,

    suffering a defeat on the floor for the first time in 80 years.

    That will really kick start their drive to the election. 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *