Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Observer,
    Whilst we are still an essentially egalitarian society in Australia, comments like yours about ‘leaners’ are unwarranted and objectionable. We, as a society, are willing to provide to those of our number that need help, when they need it. Not all of us are as good with ginning up a fortune as you appear to have been. Some of us have simply been the recipients of bad fortune. So, pull your head in, please. davidwh is a gentleman and generous to a fault. Which is no bad thing at all.

  2. Vogon Poet @ #349 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 2:47 pm

    Kristina Keneally (@KKeneally)

    In Senate #qt @MathiasCormann tells the Greens
    “You voted with the Liberal & National Senators against Labor’s CPRS. If you hadn’t, it would have been very hard for us to unscramble that egg.”
    December 4, 2018

    The greens will never admit to their mistakes though

    And, hopefully the misguided who have voted for The Greens in Inner City Melbourne will heed that fact when they come to vote in the federal election.

  3. Well Observer was correct up to the point I made a bad investment just prior to the GFC which took me quite a few years to get out of. Basically you live with what you have and make the best of it.

  4. davidwh @ #353 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 2:51 pm

    Well Observer was correct up to the point I made a bad investment just prior to the GFC which took me quite a few years to get out of. Basically you live with what you have and make the best of it.

    Wealthy people never seem to see just how much of their fortunes relies either on dumb luck or unethical behaviour. They blame others for not achieving the same “success”, which – if you think about it – is just another way they deny reality.

    The rest of us are not so wilfully blind.

  5. The Greens want Australia to have the same air force, navy and army we had when the Japanese invaded Australian territory: no fighter planes; no heavy bombers; no tanks; no heavy artillery; no air defences and no submarines.
    For a significant period of time the only defence of Australia was mounted by Dutch submarines based in Fremantle. In the early months of the Defence of Australia these boats sank more Japanese tonnage than the British, US and Australian navies combined.
    The Australian soldiers who fought in New Guinea wore exactly what the Greens want. They were ill-equipped, out-numbered and ill-trained. They died miserably.
    Darwin was flattened, being bombed fifty times.
    In the Greens vision splendid, other Aussies do the dying.

  6. davidwh

    Well Observer was correct up to the point I made a bad investment just prior to the GFC which took me quite a few years to get out of. Basically you live with what you have and make the best of it.
    _________________________________________

    Listening to Scummo in QT it was all Labor’s inability to manage the economy and the GFC never happened. So, it was not a bad investment. You were just done in by Labor mismanagement which prioritised the national economic survival over you.

  7. C@tmomma@2:48pm
    If you drill down today’s Essential poll I found one interesting number. Only 49% of Greens voters support Dividends imputation policy. So it appears Greens are no different to other people when it comes to taking free money from government. Just wondering.

  8. The Greens went into the Victorian Legislative Assembly election with three seats.

    They emerged with three seats

    Hardly the failure that Laborites were hoping for.

    In the Legislative Council, the ALP screwed themselves by helping right-wingers get elected.

  9. Boerwar @ #358 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 2:57 pm

    The Greens want Australia to have the same air force, navy and army we had when the Japanese invaded Australian territory: no fighter planes; no heavy bombers; no tanks; no heavy artillery; no air defences and no submarines.
    For a significant period of time the only defence of Australia was mounted by Dutch submarines based in Fremantle. In the early months of the Defence of Australia these boats sank more Japanese tonnage than the British, US and Australian navies combined.
    The Australian soldiers who fought in New Guinea wore exactly what the Greens want. They were ill-equipped, out-numbered and ill-trained. They died miserably.
    Darwin was flattened, being bombed fifty times.
    In the Greens vision splendid, other Aussies do the dying.

    Fearmongering is so 20th century

  10. calumniousfox says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 2:41 pm
    TPOF, do you have FttN or fixed wireless? If the former, head over to whirlpool.net.au where you can get advice on significantly improving your line speed. (Not even close to fibre standards ofc but enough to get that 50mbps utilised.) And ditch Optus for a better provider like AussieBB!

    ____________________________________

    Thanks for the advice. I’ll have a look. But I have a contract with Optus and I can’t see it being any better with another provider that has FTTN only available. The fact is that I won’t lose too much sleep because it is cheaper than what I was paying before and it does work, with the occasional drop out. Underlying all of this is how much the government stinks. The NBN is now ripe for a Labor assault at the next election as enough people now know what a load of shit it is.

  11. Nicholas @ #362 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    The Greens went into the Victorian Legislative Assembly election with three seats.

    They emerged with three seats

    Hardly the failure that Laborites were hoping for.

    In the Legislative Council, the ALP screwed themselves by helping right-wingers get elected.

    The preference whisperer was a big contributor to the upper house elections.

  12. Davidwh. Don’t worry about Observer. My guess is he’s not as well off as he pretends to be and comes here to play a ‘role’. And often a nasty one. Most people who worked many years before superannuation will need the Aged Pension. Many of us have parents, grand parents and great grand parents who received the aged pension. And we know that most of them worked very hard. It is not about leaning, it is about getting something back when you need it after years of paying into society.

  13. Nicholas, you mean the Legislative Chamber…..and you are wrong

    1. Labor may end up with as many as 19 seats
    2. In only one seat would Labor surplus have got a green over the line….instead they got some nimby from Sustainable Australia, hardly a worse outcome than an extra Green

    The Greens got their dream of the libs not directing preferences and they have failed to expand their numbers in the lower house despite seats like Richmond and Northcote being almost fully gentrified. Their third seat is a seat they have one twice now from third on primaries. It is not a stable hold for them and, like the other three, is completely impotent in the face of a glorious majority for the the progressive party of government

    They have gone from having the balance of power in the senate with 5 members to being next to irrelevant with just 1 of about 10 cross benchers

    They had an awful election

  14. Roger @ #367 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    Nicholas, you mean the Legislative Chamber…..and you are wrong

    1. Labor may end up with as many as 19 seats
    2. In only one seat would Labor surplus have got a green over the line….instead they got some nimby from Sustainable Australia, hardly a worse outcome than an extra Green

    The Greens got their dream of the libs not directing preferences and they have failed to expand their numbers in the lower house despite seats like Richmond and Northcote being almost fully gentrified. Their third seat is a seat they have one twice now from third on primaries. It is not a stable hold for them and, like the other three, is completely impotent in the face of a glorious majority for the the progressive party of government

    They have gone from having the balance of power in the senate with 5 members to being next to irrelevant with just 1 of about 10 cross benchers

    They had an awful election

    40 seats

    Labor 19
    Greens 1
    Animal Justice 1

    Greens are important

  15. Well, once again the Greens went into an election saying they’d pick up a swag of seats. They didn’t.

    The Legislative Council will probably be easier to manage for Labor than the previous one. They only need to win over a couple of the mnors each time, and they can pretty much pick and choose which ones are most suitable for the occasion.

  16. Rex

    The Greens have one vote. Labor needs two. The Greens are no more important than any of the other minors, and less important than Transport Matters (who scarcely sound like an extreme right wing grouping, but who knows?) or Derryn Hinch’s mob.

  17. zoomster @ #373 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 3:15 pm

    Rex

    The Greens have one vote. Labor needs two. The Greens are no more important than any of the other minors, and less important than Transport Matters (who scarcely sound like an extreme right wing grouping, but who knows?) or Derryn Hinch’s mob.

    I agree with you Labor will pick and choose depending on type of legislation.

  18. My ‘fantasy’ was based on the likelihood of a close election and the Greens having the balance of power in the lower house. That’s obviously not going to occur every election, but it will happen eventually.

    which is a far more rational opinion than just stating that the Greens will just disappear. And even if they do, the inner city of Melbourne will just turn to another non-ALP leftist party.

  19. Ven @ #359 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    C@tmomma@2:48pm
    If you drill down today’s Essential poll I found one interesting number. Only 49% of Greens voters support Dividends imputation policy. So it appears Greens are no different to other people when it comes to taking free money from government. Just wondering.

    Yes, once the value of their Inner City properties went through the roof, The Greens’ supporters did what other wealthy individuals did, invest in the stock market. And arrange their financial affairs accordingly. So they don’t like it either when their comfy sinecure is threatened.

  20. Roger

    ‘They had an awful election’

    True. The Greens were exposed on a failure to establish and apply due process in relation to sex scandals. They were exposed on their habitual hypocrisy of attacking Labor and sucking up to Labor. They were horribly exposed on policy. They were badly exposed on leadership. Di Natale and Ratnam do not cut it. Their vote fell by around 10%. Their political power in terms of the BOP disappeared. However, it was not all negative.
    The Greens did hoover up some useful taxpayer electoral funds to spend.

  21. Corruption no one does it better than the LNP…

    From Latika Bourke …
    Stuart Robert …
    He was subsequently restored to the ministry despite being sacked by Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 for a secret trip he made to China to promote a mining deal benefiting his close friend and party donor Paul Marks. Mr Robert also indirectly held a stake in Mr Marks’ company.

    Since then, it has been revealed Mr Roberts may have breached of the constitution by owning a company which received tens of millions of dollars in company shares. Later, he transferred directorship of the company to his elderly father who said he had no idea about any of his son’s companies.

    Following his restoration to the frontbench, Mr Robert repaid $38,000 of “excess usage charges” in home internet bills footed by taxpayers.

  22. Labor is unlikely to get 19 LC seats. The VEC has an infuriating habit of removing votes from the count when they’re being rechecked, making the calculators misleading.

    Most likely Labor will get 17, although a couple more are possible, or even one less (or fewer, if you prefer).

  23. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 3:29 pm

    ‘ That’s obviously not going to occur every election, but it will happen eventually.’

    Wishful thinking.
    _________________________
    No. The chances of Victoria having a close election at some point are far more likely than a political party that has been around since 1973 and which has dozens of representatives in various parliaments vanishing from the earth because some rural school teacher believes it.

  24. Look, can I just say on behalf of those of us who reside in the sensible centre and are therefore Labor supporters, just ignore the Greens and they’ll go away. They’ve been around since, what, the 1970s, and have grown steadily to a position of one HORs member in that time. They are not, and never will be, a Party of government. They are a hodge-podge of idealistic protest movements who at once want to play politics with real people, then cry foul as soon as they’re subjected to a sliver of the scrutiny the major Parties are subjected to n a daily basis.

    Just ignore them and they’ll go away, because they’ll never appeal to anything like the majority of Australian voters.

  25. bahahaha

    Greens came out with 3 seats to win 3 seats.

    As if you think that is some sort of say…..

    What’s the word? Too much Ego ?

    That’s not winning, that’s like saving the furniture.

  26. Indonesia, and its predecessor Javanese empires, has a track record of being ready to wage bloody war.
    Indonesian armed services: about 400,000 with enough naval shipping to transport very large numbers to Australia.
    The Greens have $0 in their budgets for the ADF.
    In thirty years the Greens have never supported a single item of defence acquisition.
    I assume that the Melbourne Greens would assemble on the beaches and hector the invading Indonesians that they are not being Progressive with the harangues bolstered by a bit of low-level snarking.

  27. Social Services and Other Legislation Amendment (Promoting Sustainable Welfare) Bill 2018
    Second Reading

    The ACTING DEPUTY PRESIDENT (Senator Leyonhjelm): The question is that the bill be read a second
    time.
    The Senate divided. [20:20]
    (The Acting Deputy President—Senator Leyonhjelm)
    Ayes ………………….37
    Noes ………………….12
    Majority……………..25
    AYES
    Abetz, E Anning, F
    Bilyk, CL Burston, B
    Bushby, DC Cameron, DN
    Canavan, MJ Colbeck, R
    Duniam, J Fierravanti-Wells, C
    Gallacher, AM Georgiou, P
    Hanson, P Hinch, D
    Hume, J (teller) Keneally, KK
    Ketter, CR Kitching, K
    Leyonhjelm, DE Lines, S
    Macdonald, ID McCarthy, M
    McKenzie, B Molan, AJ
    Moore, CM O’Neill, DM
    Pratt, LC Ruston, A
    Scullion, NG Seselja, Z
    Smith, DA Smith, DPB
    Sterle, G Stoker, AJ
    Urquhart, AE Watt, M
    Williams, JR
    NOES
    Di Natale, R Faruqi, M
    Griff, S Hanson-Young, SC
    McKim, NJ Patrick, RL
    Rice, J Siewert, R (teller)
    Steele-John, J Storer, TR
    Waters, LJ Whish-Wilson, PS

    Labors bastardry with the Libs and PHON gets this punitive bill legislated.

    Shame !

  28. I wonder whether the Greens have a costed policy for closing Olympic Dam Mine?
    After all, even the Greens might have some sort of dim economic far left awareness that closing Olympic Dam Mine might have budgetary consequences… let alone the human misery that the Greens would cause.

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