Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry I’m a bit late this morning.

    Katharine Murphy examines the latest Newspoll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/26/morrison-government-trails-labor-by-10-points-in-latest-newpoll
    As does Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labors-55-45-newspoll-lead-adds-to-liberals-weekend-of-woe-107583
    A special Fairfax feature explains how our federal corruption agencies not up to the task.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/outgunned-federal-corruption-agencies-not-up-to-the-task-20181125-p50i6i.html
    In a quite pointed contribution Tony Wright says that we should forget the wacky theories – the Liberal Party lost because it trashed its own brand.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/forget-the-wacky-theories-the-liberal-party-lost-because-it-trashed-its-own-brand-20181125-p50i8h.html
    And Greg Jericho chimes in by saying the government’s fear campaign ranges from migration and terror into economics – and it’s not working.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/nov/24/the-governments-fear-campaign-ranges-from-migration-and-terror-into-economics
    Bevan Shields reckons the feuding Liberal Party is behaving like an ostrich given the results in Victoria.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/feuding-liberals-show-zero-interest-in-learning-lesson-of-andrews-win-20181125-p50i64.html
    The Australian reports that Morrison has been warned of a federal election rout in Victoria.
    https://outline.com/Y2tACd
    The AFR wonders if the Liberal Party will actually heed the lesson it got over the weekend.
    https://outline.com/N3ubKJ
    Here are Tim Colebatch’s thoughts on why the Liberals lost so badly in Victoria.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/out-of-touch-with-reality-how-the-liberals-lost-so-badly-20181125-p50i9c.html
    Sam Maiden simply says that the Liberals have brought it all upon themselves.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/25/liberals-newspoll-victoria/
    John Passant says that in Victoria Labor has pushed the Liberals into obscurity.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/victoria-votes-labor-pushes-coalition-to-obscurity,12139
    Victorian Labor’s thumping win reveals how out of step with voters Liberals have become says this politics professor.
    https://theconversation.com/victorian-labors-thumping-win-reveals-how-out-of-step-with-voters-liberals-have-become-105574
    The Victorian election confirms a major realignment in Australian politics, writes Ben Eltham.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/11/25/victorians-reject-politics-fear-division-someone-better-tell-scott-morrison/
    David Crowe tries to work out what it is that is getting the Liberals at each other’s throats.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-do-the-liberals-stand-for-they-argue-constantly-over-the-answer-20181125-p50i8u.html
    Victorian Liberal Party leader Matthew Guy was expected to stand down and president Michael Kroger was under pressure after Saturday’s election wipeout, blamed in part on chaos in the administrative wing.
    https://outline.com/9jU2z2
    Phil Coorey says Morrison and Frydenberg will hold crisis talks with Victorian federal MPs on Monday, after the rout of the Liberal Party in Saturday’s state election raised fears that up to six federal Coalition seats in and around Melbourne could be lost.
    https://outline.com/d3Fr5v
    And he says that Victorian voters repudiated the Liberal party’s right wing.
    https://outline.com/K2stCK
    The Australian’s Greg Brown writes that the Victorian Liberal Party is diseased and the whingers need to take off their slippers, park their golf buggies in the garage and start working for the party.
    https://outline.com/gwzYuJ
    But John Ruddick says that the NSW party needs to move to the right to give it a chance of victory next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/take-a-step-to-the-right-berejiklian-s-lesson-from-victoria-s-poll-20181125-p50i78.html
    Richo elevates Dan Andrews to legend status.
    https://www.outline.com/wxWWrd
    Peta Credlin writes that the Liberals were out-run, out-spent and outclassed. There’s no quick fix or a new ­gimmick that will dig them out of this hole.
    https://www.outline.com/sWPEFE
    Ross Gittins lauds the RBA’s Dr Philip Lowe who offered his conclusions on the shocking revelations of the banking royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/boards-and-managers-responsible-for-reducing-banks-franchise-value-20181124-p50i2x.html
    George Williams tells us why harsh laws won’t stop terror.
    https://outline.com/5pJaNk
    Amy Remeikis reports that Morrison’s minority Coalition government is likely to face its first significant test on the floor of the lower house on Monday with a vote on whether to establish a national integrity commission.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/26/labor-and-crossbench-to-test-morrisons-minority-government-with-federal-icac-vote
    As expected The Australian headlines the Newspoll report with “Coalition slides but PM popular”.
    https://www.outline.com/p88PPg
    David Smith writes that Trump is approaching the midway point in his presidency and, some argue, a point of no return. The recent midterm elections left him wounded, House Democrats are said to be aiming a “subpoena cannon” at every aspect of his life and special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation appears to be nearing its endgame.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/25/donald-trump-democrats-subpoenas-house
    In a convincing article Anthony Whealy, who’d know what he’s talking about, says our next pillar of democracy should be a national corruption watchdog.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-next-pillar-of-democracy-a-national-corruption-watchdog-20181123-p50hyi.html
    And Sam Maiden writes that Morrison is facing a rebellion on the floor of Parliament, with Coalition MP Llew O’Brien threatening to cross the floor and vote with Labor to legislate for an anti-corruption watchdog.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/25/pm-faces-corruption-watchdog-rebellion/
    Investors are hoping for a trade war ceasefire at the G20 summit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/25/us-china-trump-xi-g20-summit-trade-war-tariffs
    A US federal judge has ruled that George Papadopoulos must report to prison as scheduled today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/judge-orders-ex-trump-campaign-aide-papadopoulos-to-report-to-prison-20181126-p50iac.html
    John McDuling explains how we’re about to enter a decisive chapter in Australia’s streaming wars.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/we-re-about-to-enter-a-decisive-chapter-in-australia-s-streaming-wars-20181123-p50hxr.html
    Clancy Yeates previews what could be a fiery last week of the banking royal commission sittings. Ken Henry has been called to appear.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-first-to-face-royal-commission-in-final-week-of-hearings-20181124-p50i5c.html
    National Australian Bank chief executive Andrew Thorburn and chairman Ken Henry will be forced to defend their legacies against a mounting tide of evidence the bank has broken laws attracting civil and criminal penalties when they appear at the Hayne royal commission on Monday.
    https://outline.com/qtLynq
    And APRA’s Wayne Byres’ sense of dread about his appearance at the royal commission this week will only grow once he sees the latest work from the Productivity Commission on Australia’s super sector. Hayne is likely to explore the question of whether APRA has done enough to ensure trustees in the super sector are looking after the best interests of fund members.
    https://outline.com/eGVhb9
    Nick Miller describes the Brexit deal as a depressing masterpiece of political theatre.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/analysis-brexit-deal-is-a-depressing-masterpiece-of-political-theatre-20181126-p50ia8.html
    Sean Kelly looks at this last session of parliament for the year and wonders if Labor will shift from defence to offence over climate change,
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/their-sitting-days-are-numbered-it-s-time-for-federal-pollies-to-walk-the-talk-20181125-p50i5u.html
    Amanda Vanstone tells Shorten to refrain from grandstanding over the republic, saying it could set the movement back for decades.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-grandstand-on-republic-shorten-it-ll-set-us-back-another-20-years-20181124-p50i44.html
    Cole Latimer explains how new energy trading platforms are being created to let more Australians sell their excess solar power and pass on the power bill savings beyond their own households to friends and family.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/agl-builds-its-own-solar-power-trading-market-20181123-p50hui.html
    In his new book, Where to, Australia, Graham Paterson advocates for a new Constitution that recognises Australia’s modern political and cultural character.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/breaking-from-the-past-a-new-australian-constitution,12129
    In light of escalating fuel costs airlines such as Qantas and Virgin are taking extraordinary steps to fly as light as possible.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/as-fuel-bills-bite-airlines-are-going-through-a-weight-loss-challenge-20181123-p50hyy.html
    Migrants approaching the US border from Mexico have been enveloped with tear gas after a few tried to breach the fence separating the two countries.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/migrant-caravan-welcomed-by-tear-gas-at-us-border-20181126-p50ib0.html
    The top 15 overseas corporations supplying Australia’s $12 billion medical devices market are all rated as tax avoidance risks, under guidelines issued by the Tax Office on Friday, as it sharpens its attack on transfer pricing abuses in health care.
    https://outline.com/fPzZxf
    Meanwhile patients around the world are suffering pain and many have died as a result of faulty medical devices that have been allowed on to the market by a system dogged by poor regulation, lax rules on testing and a lack of transparency, an investigation has found.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/25/revealed-faulty-medical-implants-harm-patients-around-world
    Dana McCauley writes that the federal government is within sight of posting a surplus one year earlier than previously forecast, just as it considers whether to schedule the annual budget in March or April next year instead of the usual early May.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-weighs-early-budget-as-revenues-soar-20181125-p50i8p.html
    The great crypto crash of 2018 plunged deeper over the weekend as Bitcoin slid a further 4.5 per cent to $US3635.
    https://outline.com/yZvETs
    This uni student, who got an ATAR score of 99 explains how she got a lousy education. It reminds me of the advice that my year 10 chemistry teacher told me – “education is what you remember after the exams”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-got-a-99-atar-but-i-had-a-lousy-education-20181123-p50hwo.html
    Educationist Greg Whitby says that nostalgia for a bygone era of schooling is downright destructive.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/nostalgia-for-a-bygone-era-of-schooling-is-downright-destructive-20181123-p50i0c.html
    Kate McClymont tells us how the NSW government has launched action to recoup millions of dollars in legal costs from the now jailed former minister Eddie Obeid and his family.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-chases-the-obeids-for-5-million-20181125-p50i7q.html
    SA prison officers are being prepared for potential riots when jails go smoke-free next year. Jail staff will be armed with shields, batons and capsicum spray, while SA Police STAR Group officers will be ready to intervene in major incidents should prisoners revolt over having to butt out.
    https://outline.com/HE44EB
    What a nice bunch there is in this inner Sydney council!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/he-beats-his-wife-liberal-lawyer-sues-party-colleagues-20181115-p50g5s.html
    I was a one sixth owner of one of Harold Lightburn’s Zeta sedans in 1966.
    https://outline.com/4g5ttd
    And for today’s “Arsehole of the Week” we have –
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/manhunt-for-monster-rapist-who-has-significant-bush-skills-20181124-p50i43.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe sums up the Victorian election fallout.

    Frydenberg failed to convince Mark David.

    A shocker about Guy from Jon Kudelka!
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8119e5727216a7b7cb39864877171ab7
    Just a few more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-26-2018-20181125-h18c18.html

  2. I suspect Frydtheplanet’s continuing reference to the ‘Liberal family’ and what it does – ie stick together – is reflecting what their polling, focus groups and anectodal feedback they are getting at the polling booths.

    The younger generation is peeling off from the family tradition of voting Liberal, and he is telling them to stay tribally loyal.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry I’m a bit late this morning.

    BK
    You’re the one person on this blog who never has to say he’s sorry. Thank you as always for your excellent morning compilation.

  4. Yes BK

    There are probably many ghosts and lurkers around Australia that follow PB just for your compilation.

    I am one of them.

    Thanks.

  5. Good Morning

    BK

    Late but worth waiting for 🙂

    Sprocket

    The member for Corangamite was on ABC News Breakfast. She was doing Kill Bill and whining that there was a lack of investment in trains for the Geelong area.

    I don’t think thats going to help keep young people staying in the “family”

  6. Morning all, thanks BK. Today’s Rowe as always is very good.

    A good article about why coal is so hard to give up. I found this very intriguing as I’d never thought of it that way before: coal miners as a symbol of industrial virility, and how they are latched onto by populist political leaders.

    In the public imagination, the coal miner has long been a symbol of industrial virility, a throwback to an era when hard labor — particularly men’s labor, rather than robots — fueled economic growth.

    That idea has been central to politics. German coal miners have lifted the fortunes of that country’s far-right party. Poland’s right-wing government has promised to open new coal mines. Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, rose to power as a champion of coal.

    President Trump has promised, unsuccessfully so far, to revive coal mining jobs and instructed his Environmental Protection Agency to roll back rules to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/24/climate/coal-global-warming.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  7. BK

    The Sandgropers are wondering what the fuss is about. Dawn Patrol arrived 5:15 ,Dullsville Sunrise 5:08 . Definitely a well timed Dawn Patrol 🙂

  8. Lizzie, ‘Perhaps Greg Hunt will achieve his ambition at last and become leader (of the Oppn)’

    Horrible thought but he may just do it as the last man standing?

  9. Guytaur

    I would have said that better train services to Geelong had already happened with the new work around Tarneit and that it was also a state issue that Mrs Henderson had been silent on previously.

  10. Tony Wright analyses why the voters of Brighton turned on the Liberals..

    “Those voters, quite obviously, were rejecting a party they felt had rejected them, or at least their idea of what the Liberal Party was supposed to be.

    The behaviour of what had been their party at federal level – the flirting with Tony Abbott’s choice of punisher, Peter Dutton, the overthrow of their idea of a leader, Malcolm Turnbull, and the choice of a chancer, Scott Morrison, as a replacement prime minister – had poisoned them.

    And the poison had seeped all the way down.

    It’s how you trash a brand. A batch of frozen berries is tainted in Beijing, causing customers in Melbourne to fall ill, and that brand of berries quickly finds itself with no buyers anywhere.

  11. Liberal Party members reeled from the shock. “It’s an unmitigated disaster and no one should sugar-coat it. That’s how many many people feel. There is a huge measure of goodwill towards Matthew Guy but the campaign was a disaster,” said John Roskam, executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs and longtime Liberal Party member. “The identity crisis that is engulfing the federal Liberal Party had now reached the Victorian Liberal Party. Are they going to keep arguing about what they believe in?”…

    Federal Victorian Labor MP Richard Marles said…”It is really clear that the Liberals have lost the ability to speak Victorian.

    The IPA are one of the main sponsors if not the principal sponsor of the Liberal ideology that Victorians rejected so clearly. How he can say that with a straight face baffles me.

  12. I find it funny the argument that the Coalition needs to move to the right in NSW to win relection in March. John Ruddick is potentially right to say that NSW has become more conservative over the past 30 years, but moving to the right has clearly upset the Lib moderares in NSW and Wentworth proves what can happen. They can appeal to as many regional and rural voters they want but elections are won in Sydney + surrounds. They wont go in for cconservative v progressive arguments. An approach to actually building infrastructure is the right way to attract votes which the NSW Libs have been doing (even though I disagree with their infrastructure priorities). Cost of living, housing and development are also key issues.

  13. Labor got the message. Maybe it took going back to Rudd to do it. Labor made it so the temptation to blame the leader instead of the policies is gone.

    As a result Labor has been running on policies. When Labor next wins a Federal election as a result it like Victoria is going to have a mandate. No small target. No going back on promises.

    Actually doing what you say and if you fail at those policies that will lose you government. Of course its not just the leadership change. Its also seeing good policy work at state level that has Labor moving with confidence.

    That to me says we may have a Labor party that is worth of Curtin and Whitlam again. Andrews has shown why the Greens are in trouble. Be a real progressive Labor party and your primary vote is in the 40’s and you are stronger than the LNP.

    Its no coincidence that Labor is looking good and the mask has fallen off the right at this time.
    Its not just Liberal soul searching over what the party should stand for. I do think Labor was shocked by the Marriage Survey results like everyone else as we have been drenched in the right wing media telling us how conservative voters are.

    Its great that those Labor changes have happened in time to take advantage of that information. I am getting hopeful like I did in 07 of real progressive government like we saw under Whitlam just with a firm hand at the tiller as Labor will change policies to cope with the very changed society around us but recognising that Australia is still the country of the Fair go and that the ethos of Workers united will never be defeated that formed the party in the first place is at the heart of Australian politics. We are not the US or the UK with the right wing holding sway. Maybe its the compulsory voting.

    But Ben Eltham is exactly right the political culture has changed as the media and right wing politicians are shown to be so out of touch.

  14. Although a typo in my post above, I want to coin the phrase moderares now, to describe the lib moderates who appear to be shrinking in numbers…..

  15. Has Morrison been seen or heard from since the Vic election? Unusual for the complete radio silence, not even a congratulatory tweet except for the women’s cricket team!

  16. An hour to go and the political reality that even conservative Wentworth fell to an Independent and made Morrison a minority government hits.

    Its going to be another shock to the government mob as this reality hits them and they learn minority government is a whole different thing to majority government. 🙂

  17. Confessions

    Morrison is busy. Doing root and branch review of the Victorian election. Not reacting to the change in government status from all the public rhetoric I have seen.

    Its going to be such an interesting week. We might just see last days of Gillard’s minority government chaos as the splits come to the foreground. The media knows even one LNP person crossing the floor is disaster for a minority government that promotes “stable government” as its core strength.

  18. guytaur @ #122 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 9:09 am

    An hour to go and the political reality that even conservative Wentworth fell to an Independent and made Morrison a minority government hits.

    Its going to be another shock to the government mob as this reality hits them and they learn minority government is a whole different thing to majority government. 🙂

    It would be nice if they what government was full stop.

  19. From the BK files.

    Amanda Vanstone tells Shorten to refrain from grandstanding over the republic, saying it could set the movement back for decades.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-grandstand-on-republic-shorten-it-ll-set-us-back-another-20-years-20181124-p50i44.html

    More importantly, we don’t need another confirmation that we are deeply divided about who we think we are. A no vote with a reasonable showing in favour of a republic also sends a message of no confidence to the current monarch. After all, a win simply because the other side was divided is hardly a tumultuous victory.

    We, collectively would never dream of sending such a bad mannered message to the current monarch. I understand that she (bows deeply whilst doffing cap and tugging forelock) thinks we should be a republic anyway.

    The thrilling picture of Mr. M.B. Turnbull confidently espousing a Yes vote, lo, those many years ago, may be (2 bob psychology here – Jungian variety containing racial memory) the subsequent lack of decision and, perhaps, constant negativity. He, Mr. Turnbull was able to grasp that Yes meant No and so, has proceeded on that basis up til now.

    Like many republicans I have great admiration for our Queen. She is, regardless of gender, the greatest example of duty, honour and responsibility in my lifetime.

    All together now allons enfant de la patria or similar rousing ditty to stir the blood.

    Although greatly compressed (here) Ms. Amanda Vandstone makes a compelling case that she should have devout belief in her own words. Me ❓ Not so much ❗

    Well worth a read in its entirely. Ms. Vanstone may be absolutely correct and Mr. W. Shorten may have to change his attitude from a simple waltz to a rousing square dance (or maybe a fandango) and to that end I now humbly suggest the following lyrics from The Muppets.

    Grab your partner by the ears
    Lash him to the wheel
    Do-si-do step on his toe
    Listen to him squeal
    Allemande left, allemande right
    It’s time to sail or sink
    Swing your partner over the side
    Drop him in the drink
    We got cabin fever
    No if’s, and’s, or but’s

    Big day today. Visit to GP to chase up my now overdue colonoscopy . Have I been forgotten ❓ Am I being taught, once again, the lesson of gratification delayed ❓ Will there be a happy ending ❓ I think there is a pun in the last sentence.

    Good morning all and thanks BK for trawling through the papers for us.👍

  20. Morning all

    Thanks BK for today’s roundup.
    Good to see the fiberals get a huge dose of reality whether they are prepared to accept it or not.

  21. Put me down for Menzies being right in Labor’s gun come the Federal election. Not every Andrews got good news on Saturday night. Kevin should have seen his political death, but being the fringe nutter he is he will learn exactly the wrong lesson.

  22. Quite hopeful the Victorian result might mark the end of parties almost entirely relying on marketing techniques to get elected, and instead they will work on policies that address the public’s needs. OK, marketing will always be there, and it worked during the boom times; but in challenging times, slick slogans alone don’t cut it.

    Such a realisation would force the Libs to address their right-wing drift, or face oblivion. We can but hope.

  23. The infrastructure by the Andrews govt has been tangible.

    In my neck of woods they removed level crossing at Rosanna Station enabling the busy road below to run without interruption.
    The line nearby was single track due to a small underground tunnel. They built an adjoining tunnel to enable duplication.

    Also in estates to the north, they built four more stations to cater for the growing estates and the stations are state of the art.

    Admittedly these areas are already Labor leaning but you can’t forget workers who are tasked with these projects. They live in different parts of Melbourne so it is work and progress for all to experience.

  24. Who will be the next Tory morning to denounce Safe Schools?

    I said at the time that a real leader would have made a private visit to Pelligrini’s, not turned it into a media circus that Morrison and Guy did.

    I read somewhere yesterday that Andrews did just that. Class act.

  25. Victoria:

    On election night every time the removal of level crossings was mentioned it drew a huge cheer from the crowd. Obviously a popular initiative.

  26. Amy always full of fun!

    Ray Hadley is offering solutions to the government on how to win the next election, which could be best described as useful as a marzipan oven mitt.

    All you need is a coal-fired power station, apparently.

  27. Confessions, Victoria

    Yes on the Ringwood line out here it has made a big difference. This line was ‘grade separated’ during the Depression as government ‘job creation’ but they only got as far as Camberwell.

    Just before the 2014 election someone in the relevant Government Department who had access to both sides’ plans told me how Labor had this incredibly ambitious plan to speed this process up and really hit the ground running if they won. Which they sure did.

    I went to Mernda recently and it was so good to see that new line – now on to Whittlesea!

  28. lizzie

    Nice dig from Amy ……..
    .
    Tony Abbott finds it “absolutely nauseating”.

    He thinks factional politics means you don’t chose candidates on their “quality”.

    Because, as Abbott and co keep telling us, they are all absolutely there on merit.

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